Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

12/3/44

Uruppu: First wave is all LBA. Allies have decent LRCAP but the enemy makes it through (with light losses). BB Idaho takes three torps.

[Canoerebel]

12/3/44

Uruppu: Second wave is also all LBA.

[Canoerebel]

12/3/44

Uruppu: Ditto the third wave, which drills a dry hole...but Allied LRCAP is dwindling away.

[Canoerebel]

12/3/44

Uruppu: This is the first Allied bombing raid against Uruppu today; it's well-escorted, so losses are fairly light. Some other 2EB come in without escort and get chewed up, especially the Venturas.

[Canoerebel]

12/3/44

Uruppu: First wave of enemy carrier planes finds minimal Allied LRCAP remaining. Uh oh.

[Canoerebel]

12/3/44

Uruppu: Afternoon enemy carrier strikes find no LRCAP remaining and Death Star LRCAP shut out by weather. Things get ugly here.

[Canoerebel]

12/3/44

Uruppu: Triggered IJ bombardment is self-destructive.

[Canoerebel]

12/3/44

Uruppu: Allied bombardment has a modest effect. Allied raw AV now more than 2x enemy AV, with 640 AV set to land tomorrow, though Erik may (or may not) contest the beachhead (probably not).

The Allies started a massive shift in forces during this turn, with a scad of empties departing from Shikuka to rendezvous with Death Star, the first step in an major egress movement back to West Coast. At the same time, the reinforcing amphibious TFs departed Shikuka to rendezvous with Death Star. And, in the Aleutians, many TFs carrying supply, fuel and reinforcements began their journey west, towards Sikhalin.

This is another major operation that will "fund" future activities post-Uruppu.

With KB air having flown two sorties, I think Erik will pull back, though I will allow for him to contest the waters around Uruppu. DS will take station to protect Uruppu and the TFs carrying in the reinforcements. I think it's more likely KB will withdraw. IF so, that may make the egress/ingress oepration a bit more secure than otherwise would have been the case, which should streamline things just a bit.

[Canoerebel]

12/3/44

Air Losses: Hard fighting today by both sides.

[Canoerebel]

12/3/44


Ships Sunk: The list of ships sunk (a bunch more LCI aren't shown). I haven't seen the turn file yet, so I don't know how many others are badly damaged and in danger of sinking.

Turns like this are no fun to sit through. Limiting this kind of turn to "rare" or "infrequent" is important. I can easily absorb these losses without losing a step, as long as this isn't the start of a trend.

Overall, the Uruppu campaign has gone well; and the ongoing ingress/egress operation is key to future events. So I think I can shrug this off and proceed. But attending properly to tomorrow landings at Uruppu is important. Would Erik recommit LBA and carrier air? Might he send in combat TFs? I think the answers are "no" and "no," but I have to allow for either or both.

[Anachro]

Those type of turns are very hard to sit through. You just have to grit your teeth and remain steadfast to the higher strategic picture. I know you do this; you always seem unflappable. As for me, when a bad turn comes my way there have been many cases where I yell out in pain, cry in agony, throw things in my office, pound my fists on the table, and more . Of course, I never let this frustration or anger show in my email exchanges with my opponent. Mind games are important, after all.

[RangerJoe]

Ouch on those ship losses.

Do you have more pure armor to bring in? I know that it is not as effective in mountainous terrain but your losses should be lighter than with your infantry.

But since you know where the KB is, you can now launch naval actions in the Indian Ocean and the Southern Pacific.

[Canoerebel]

It's no fun watching a turn like that unfold, nor is it fun to report them. It can be really hard to bear down and provide details of an ugly turn or turns. I try to do so under the rationale that it would be a bit disingenuous to report the good turns while glossing over the bad ones. That doesn't make the reporting any easier, though.

On the plus side, the bad turns are what give the perspective or base-line by which to measure the good ones.

I'm not always sanguine about bad turns. When I am, I'm sure there are times when I seem to be reporting through rose-colored glasses or living in a Polyanna world. But what happened today doesn't mean much if I can keep the Uruppu campaign going (starting with tomorrow's landings) and if I can accomplish the egress/ingress op in good order. I won't miss what I lost, partly because far more than what was lost is inbound.

More important than the ship losses was the aircraft losses. Also, I'm short on replacement Navy pilots now (for my ground-based squadrons). That's a bigger issue for longterm progress. I'm good on Marine pilot reserves and Army pilot reserves, but the Navy is nearly depleted.

[Lokasenna]

The losses were ugly, but presumably you knew what the risks were when you went in.

They accomplished the mission of landing more troops. I'd gander that what you landed is going to be enough to make the island fold. If so, with 2 in your hands, that changes the near term aerial picture in a non-trivial way. With Uruppu in Allied hands, Ketoi becomes relatively safe and can begin basing more bombers than fighters. With a hypothetical third island in your hands, I'm not sure you'd need to hit any others. I think you have several choices, notably Shimushiri or Etorofu. I think you said you have your future moves already planned out, so I'll be curious to see if I'm right in my guess.

[Canoerebel]

Indeed, I'm not planning to take all the Kuriles. The only thing that might change my mind is if the large garrisons represented significant points and my troops weren't needed elsewhere at the moment. But that's a big if.

Shimishura is a likely target.

for now, readers, what would you do? I have large amphibious TF ready to go in and unload 640 AV at Uruppu. I have many TFs of empties that can either accompany DS or which can proceed to Ketoi under stout but not impregnable LBA. It is unlikely but not impossible that Erik could recomit his LBA and carrier air against my shipping. He could even commit combat TFs. Can my LBA and carrier air protect Death Star and the ships at Uruppu against another major onslaught? I think Erik will pull back tomorrow, but can I take that chance? Should I delay the amphibious landings one day to keep those TFs with DS?

I've made the decision, entered the orders, and I'm about to send the turn.

[Canoerebel]

Addendum: The number of badly damaged ships is low. I'll lose a few LCI and perhaps a few other nice ships (two APA and one AKA are down to about 7 knots), but most of the rest had no more than moderate damage. Even CL Biloxi should be fine.

[BBfanboy]

He has had time to repair some of his BBs and CAs so if he is going "all in" I would expect them to be sent in on a night raid/bombardment next turn. I know that would put them in DS's range on egress, but he might think he can LRCAP them heavily enough to whack your SBDs and TBs so that KB would be in position to go after DS. Eric has shown in other AARs that he will sacrifice major units to achieve strategic goals.

[Canoerebel]

12/4/44

Uruppu: Bombardment scores one supply hit.

As the turn opens, KB pulls west, away from Uruppu. Enemy E-class TFs sink one sub and heavily damage another that were vectored in on the retreat path.

And it's a quiet day. I chose to keep all the ships tight with DS, including the reinforcing invasion TFs. Unless I see something ominous, those TFs will move to Uruppu tonight.

The most signficant thing in the theater for me is that the ingressing ships continue to gather at and near Attu, while the bulk of the egressing empties are with Death Star or are at Ketoi. None are molested.

[Canoerebel]

12/4/44

Uruppu: No Japanaese bombardment; Allied bombardment accomplishes little. Some enemy AVs beginning to recover a bit.

[Canoerebel]

12/04/44

NoPac: The bird's-eye view on the eve of the major reinforcing landings at Uruppu. I don't believe KB will make a U-turn, though I've allowed for it with CAP and LRCAP settings. If KB continues west another turn, the ingress/egress op should go smoothly.