Banzais Don't Make Victories - Anachro (A) vs John 3rd (J) BTS 5.7

[CaptBeefheart]

Well played in the Andamans. That'll force him to be more careful next time.

Cheers,
CC

[Bif1961]

I wonder how many collisions there were trying to get out of the way of the marauding Royal Navy cruiser force.

[Anachro]

Don't have the next turn yet, but I thought I'd drop a further note as I was a little lucky last term. First, Hermes did suffer an air attack from LBA but didn't suffer much thankfully and was a little lucky. Secondly, John sent me a note a few hours ago describing the situation:

I set a damned trap with Port Blair because I KNEW you would fight. Didn’t work due to my TF deciding to refuel before moving in to provide a serious escort. We’ll see what happen this turn. Got a real shot at Hermes and had TWO DUDS! You are lucky Mister…

Given the cadence of the game, I believe him. My Indian naval search is porous at the moment until I can get more land-based patrol craft brought in. British Catalina's should have just arrived in Bombay; American PBY's are transiting to Capetown. There was already a roving cruiser force and there could very well be more.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Little Andaman at 42,56

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 36 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 14

Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 8 damaged

Allied Ships
CVL Hermes

There were a few torpedo duds in this attack

John is supposedly running the turn now (or at least was doing so an hour ago). I'm currently on a flight back to Los Angeles and JetBlue for some reason has free WiFi. I'm not complaining. Very interested to see if he murders my British CLs as they flee, the Hermes, and what will happen to his transports in the South Pacific that my cruisers are trying to get. His carriers could turn south down there this turn and potentially attack. Next turn could be very bloody for me. Or not.

[Lecivius]

Even if he blows everything out of the water, it's still a big win. He is hurt, plus the sting will make him more cautious.

[Bif1961]

Admiral Fletcher-san must have been in charge of his ambushing TF.

[DOCUP]

Great ambush.

[Anachro]

Jan 28-29, 1942

My remaining forces seem to have safely extracted themselves from the action around Port Blair. Not back in port yet, and there is always the chance an unspotted roving cruiser force can get them, but they should at least be out of LBA range. Unfortunately, this little girl is gonna be left behind and scuttled, her brave crew unable to stop the hungry fires. Nonetheless, a successful little OP. I'd imagine he will secure Burma and then move on to India. Once he gets Port Blair setup (currently moving an Air Division unit there), he can saturate much of the sea lanes towards India with naval search and partial air cover.



The real news is happening currently in the South Pacific. A partial landing force of his Sasebo Marine division (~150AV) lands and takes Baker Island. Luckily, my AV and PBY's were moved to the nearby atoll as I suspected he would do this. The more interesting thing is another invasion force seems to be trailing his carriers and could potentially be moving towards Palmyra. I have been unable to reinforce due to worries over his roving carriers and subs and two marine regiments are still on ships about 5 days from reaching the island. Reinforcements won't make it in time if he decides to land. If he takes Palmyra, I'll probably go ahead and setup routes to Australia through Capetown and Port Stanley in the mean time.

Palmyra currently has ~2.5 forts and ~40AV. Unfortunately for me, I had just offloaded a few base units, etc. a few turns ago to help build her up before moving on to other islands in SoPac. Their loss isn't so bad and can quickly be rebuilt, but it's a shame to lose them like this if he lands. Also frustrating is my roving cruisers should have intercepted at least one of these invasion forces a turn ago but somehow missed them. That said, there is potentially to catch parts of his various invasion fleets seeing as they are so far south and his carriers can't cover everything. My 3.5 carriers are about to linkup at Pago Pago and I should have ~120 fighters and ~170 bombers. They can't take on his carriers unless he divides them, but perhaps they can hit something else.

I'd imagine the force moving towards Palmyra is the other half of his marine division and should be ~150 AV. I would love for him to reload his troops and given me an opportunity to sink one of his invasion fleets if they are unprotected or try for an easy movement towards another island. I don't think he is aware that my carriers are down here. Only one missing unfortunately is Yorktown, which is heading towards Capetown.

[obvert]

Against John I'd just not bother reinforcing or doing anything in the Central Pacific in early 42. Let him run around taking things that will extend his LOC and cost him fuel and supplies.

Use off map and stay out of the normal shipping lanes, but do get fighters to OZ ASAP if you can.

[Anachro]

Yup, plan to do a lot more off-map stuff than I've done in previous games. East Coast doesn't seem to accumulate as much oil/supplies as it has done in my other games, at least initially. Australia has some fighters already; both ones that spawn there and from fighter wings I evacuated out of the Philippines. What I really need is more patrol craft everywhere.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Yup, plan to do a lot more off-map stuff than I've done in previous games. East Coast doesn't seem to accumulate as much oil/supplies as it has done in my other games, at least initially. Australia has some fighters already; both ones that spawn there and from fighter wings I evacuated out of the Philippines. What I really need is more patrol craft everywhere.

IIRC, in John's mod the US economy takes months to spool up as opposed to a week or two in stock. The EC will draw more supply/fuel when you start to pull from there, but will take several days to get there on the rails. Sending an HQ there will also help the draw.

If you need to build up Pt. Stanley, don't forget you can put a unit in Strat mode at any off-map base and send it there without any fuss. When I have Cristobal and Balboa fully built, I Strat-transfer their BFs to EC USA and then on-map to help with base building and air support in the USA.

[ny59giants]

I've disabled the US economy even more in your version of the mod than in previous versions. The older version which I'm playing (Oct 42) took about two months with all industry set to repair to see a steady build up of surplus supplies. Now, it will take another month or two before San Fran gets significant surplus of supplies there on daily basis.

[Anachro]

@nygiants & obvert I knew about the disablements to industry. I guess this early on I actually have to manipulate the land movement of supply to get a larger pool in the east coast until the abundance of supply and fuel starts flowing later per rebuilding on disabled industry. How do you guys set up your routes to Stanley? Do you do east coast -> Panama -> Stanley or do you have convoys starting from the west coast? I'd imagine east coast so as to avoid subs.

Jan 30, 1942

John elects to land the other half of his marine division at Canton Island, with his carriers hovering northeast of it. So, for now at least, my base units at Palmyra are preserved and the island shall be promptly reinforced unless he reloads and lands again elsewhere. Luckily, I had already used up all the fuel that starts out stockpiled at Canton. No free refueling for his convoys/carriers!

Canton isn't too far from my 3.5 carriers at Pago Pago...these are refueling at the moment before moving out to an ambush position to the west of Canton. I will not attack his carriers; my targets are the transports. If he elects to expend more fuel and move south with his carriers, mine can safely move away next turn.

Ground combat at Canton Island (153,143)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 5638 troops, 88 guns, 11 vehicles, Assault Value = 177

Defending force 3889 troops, 39 guns, 41 vehicles, Assault Value = 28

Japanese adjusted assault: 232

Allied adjusted defense: 16

Japanese assault odds: 14 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Canton Island !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
76 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
4471 casualties reported
Squads: 21 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 342 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 34 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 34 (34 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 45 (45 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 4

Assaulting units:
1st Maizuru Assault Division

Defending units:
2nd/298th Infantry Battalion
142nd USN Stn Base Force
260th Field Artillery Battalion
45th Base Group

[Anachro]

Forgot to mention Japanese troops marching on Sian had a little hiccup. Part of me wants to try shocking these two straggler divisions. Part of me doesn't want to risk it.

Ground combat at 84,42 (near Sian)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 24148 troops, 196 guns, 40 vehicles, Assault Value = 757

Defending force 78175 troops, 366 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1948

Japanese adjusted assault: 112

Allied adjusted defense: 3052

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 27

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-), supply(-)

Japanese ground losses:
8058 casualties reported
Squads: 15 destroyed, 526 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 36 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 69 disabled
Guns lost 48 (1 destroyed, 47 disabled)
Vehicles lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
227 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 26 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Assaulting units:
37th Division
41st Division

Defending units:
12th Chinese Corps
84th Chinese Corps
51st Chinese Corps
36th Chinese Corps
13th Chinese Corps
41st Chinese Corps
80th Chinese Corps
85th Chinese Corps
7th Chinese Corps
90th Chinese Corps
69th Chinese Corps
7th New Chinese Corps
4th Construction Regiment
5th War Area
22nd Group Army

[RangerJoe]

If you shock attack while he is out of supply, a lot of those disablements will be destroyed. My rule of thumb for his strength would be to subtract the infantry and engineer disabled squads from his starting AV. In this case 757 - (526 + 47) = 757 - 573 = 184. While some might repair, he did have a supply malus. Your should still be over 1900 and his might rise to 200. Still it should be at least 8:1 in raw AV. Modify it for the terrain and you still have good odds. Trash those two division and they will be out of action for a few days. I would consider a regular attack while any units without a lot of irreplaceable devices might shock.

But are any units moving in? That would change things.

[BBfanboy]

In this mod, IIRC, the Chinese units have better experience, leadership and equipment than stock. Assess those things and if the experience/leadership is 50 or more you have a good chance of smashing him.

[modrow]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Forgot to mention Japanese troops marching on Sian had a little hiccup. Part of me wants to try shocking these two straggler divisions. Part of me doesn't want to risk it.

You forgot the best part [:)].

You may be astonished based on my previous posts advocating for caution that I would give it a go (even) based on the incomplete picture we have, unless

a) your own army has supply/disruption/fatigue problems (the first I do not know, the other two seem unlikely) or

b) you believe next turn fresh IJ units can enter the hex (as Ranger Joe said).

c) you are violating eventual stocking limits with your stack to a notable extent

Even if you assume John unleashes the might of the IJ air forces in China on that single hex and you are perhaps not in a position to provide efficient protection, you are in a wooded hex, so chances that he can disrupt the entire to an extent that is equivalent to the disruption IJ should be facing after this attack are low. Also, even if the attack fails it looks like your blocking stack would likely be able to withstand the next attack.

Also, I think that John does not like the China theatre much. He is probably active there because he has the feeling not being sufficiently active there in his last game against Canoerebel was not a good choice. So a setback might reduce his already limited enthusiasm further, which can only be beneficial for you.

As always, just my 2cts.

Hartwig

[ny59giants]

In this mod, IIRC, the Chinese units have better experience, leadership and equipment than stock. Assess those things and if the experience/leadership is 50 or more you have a good chance of smashing him.

I just increased the non-rifle devices by 50 to 100% and increased supply generation and/or automatic daily supply generation. A future version will be me taking Big B's mod and incorporated it for the China theater for both sides. That 'may' happen at end of August when I'm on vacation.

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants_MatrixForum
I just increased the non-rifle devices by 50 to 100% and increased supply generation and/or automatic daily supply generation. A future version will be me taking Big B's mod and incorporated it for the China theater for both sides. That 'may' happen at end of August when I'm on vacation.

I really like BigB's mod, so I look forward to that. I believe John stated that future iterations of his mod will use BigB's framework.

As for my game, I promise to do an update on the Chinese theater later and an overall picture of the situation, VP's and all. I will state here again that land combat is not my strong suit and I need all the help you all can provide.

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: modrow
You forgot the best part [:)].

You may be astonished based on my previous posts advocating for caution that I would give it a go (even) based on the incomplete picture we have, unless

a) your own army has supply/disruption/fatigue problems (the first I do not know, the other two seem unlikely) or

b) you believe next turn fresh IJ units can enter the hex (as Ranger Joe said).

c) you are violating eventual stocking limits with your stack to a notable extent

Even if you assume John unleashes the might of the IJ air forces in China on that single hex and you are perhaps not in a position to provide efficient protection, you are in a wooded hex, so chances that he can disrupt the entire to an extent that is equivalent to the disruption IJ should be facing after this attack are low. Also, even if the attack fails it looks like your blocking stack would likely be able to withstand the next attack.

Also, I think that John does not like the China theatre much. He is probably active there because he has the feeling not being sufficiently active there in his last game against Canoerebel was not a good choice. So a setback might reduce his already limited enthusiasm further, which can only be beneficial for you.

As always, just my 2cts.

Hartwig

The supply situation/disruption in the hex is relatively minimal. I have elected to try a shock attack, so let's check out the results next turn. John is making a strong push in the north for Sian and trying to cutoff large elements of my Chinese forces fleeing from the South. I want to delay him as long as possible and, as you state, if the frustration leads him to become slower in his China theater, it's a win.

There are not many house rules in this game, except for some relating to air combat and PP purchasing of units. We are playing with stacking limits on.

[Anachro]

One of my favorite things in game is seeing the experience levels of ship crews improve through combat. British/New Zealand cruisers benefited from the recent action at Port Blair.

CL Achilles: 60 Day / 40 Night -> 60 / 59
CL Enterprise: 74 Day / 59 Night -> 83 / 59
DD Jervis: 72 Day / 59 Night -> 85 / 59

Others had minor improvements. CL Enterprise and DD Jervis are now the two most experienced combat ships among the Allied navies respectively. Interestingly, the Jervis historically served in the European theater, but in game she appears in India.


HMS Jervis, the pride of the British Eastern Fleet.