Banzais Don't Make Victories - Anachro (A) vs John 3rd (J) BTS 5.7

[Anachro]

Jan 31-Feb 1, 1942

Mixed turn, but more good than bad I think. First, I move my carriers south in the nick of time, as John moves his carriers down and recon's Pago Pago. I will be careful of his carriers and see if I can find an opening along the edges to hit his transports. Importantly, my carriers are not spotted. Moreover, he has a 10/10 DL on a CL/DD TF far to his north making an aim for some of his exposed transports. I would guess he pulls back to try and get these, but I won't assume so. I need to be careful.



The bad news happens as BC Constellation is making a run to port to get her 2/42 refit in. Somehow, despite numerous ASW assets, air and sea, in the area, plus a decent escort, she takes two torpedoes from an unspotted submarine. Luckily, the damage isn't too severe but she can't afford another one as she makes a run into Sydney for emergency repairs. Currently, 3 hexes out. I will put a number of additional ASW assets into the area to saturate it with DDs as she heads for port.

Sub attack near Port Macquarie at 94,165

Japanese Ships
SS I-2

Allied Ships
BC Constellation, Torpedo hits 2
DD Pope
DD Parrott
DD Flusser
DD Kortenaer
DD Voyager

SS I-2 launches 4 torpedoes at BC Constellation
DD Kortenaer fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Voyager attacking submerged sub ....
SS I-2 eludes DD Voyager by diving deep
DD Voyager fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Voyager fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Voyager fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Voyager fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub

In China, my force makes his divisions retreat...

Ground combat at 84,42 (near Sian)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 78852 troops, 407 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 2004

Defending force 18682 troops, 195 guns, 39 vehicles, Assault Value = 176

Allied adjusted assault: 1202

Japanese adjusted defense: 160

Allied assault odds: 7 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
5933 casualties reported
Squads: 248 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 177 destroyed, 41 disabled
Engineers: 25 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 50 (26 destroyed, 24 disabled)
Vehicles lost 10 (6 destroyed, 4 disabled)
Units retreated 2

Allied ground losses:
1145 casualties reported
Squads: 39 destroyed, 168 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 15 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 29 disabled
Guns lost 9 (4 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
7th Chinese Corps
85th Chinese Corps
84th Chinese Corps
80th Chinese Corps
41st Chinese Corps
12th Chinese Corps
90th Chinese Corps
96th Chinese Corps
7th New Chinese Corps
13th Chinese Corps
36th Chinese Corps
69th Chinese Corps
51st Chinese Corps
4th Construction Regiment
5th War Area
22nd Group Army

Defending units:
37th Division
41st Division

And my AVG squadrons down a number ~30 Sonia's in a number of unescorted attacks on a LRCAP'd hex, he keeps talking about the AVG squadrons in his emails. He respects my employment of them in China keeping him honest, but thinks its time "to get serious."

I am DONE with the AVG! Time to get focused and more serious…

Morning Air attack on 13th Chinese Base Force, at 77,54 , near Kweilin

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 36 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-51 Sonia x 28

Allied aircraft
H81-A3 x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-51 Sonia: 12 destroyed, 2 damaged

[JohnDillworth]

beat up those divisions pretty good. That's a lot of destroyed squads. They may stay wrecked for a bit

[jwolf]

He might be "done" with the AVG but you are sure not! Also your attack in China worked really well. Kudos! [8D]

[Anachro]

Forgot to mention John is landing at Attu and Amchitka in the Aleutians. Adak next? I ave some eng units there. I could reinforce it with a (Sep) Inf Regiment from Dutch Harbor.

[modrow]

Well done in China !



You also see that the estimate provided by Ranger Joe was quite accurate.

Hartwig

[Anachro]

Air losses for the day...

[Anachro]

@hartwig Yup, quite accurate. Happily so. His major push in China is towards Xian with almost all his available divisions it seems. Happy to put 2 out of action for awhile.

You'll notice my top pilots seem to be in the AVG squadrons

[RangerJoe]

beat up those divisions pretty good. That's a lot of destroyed squads. They may stay wrecked for a bit

And use up a lot of supply along with armament points while basically on garrison duty.

Well done in China !



You also see that the estimate provided by Ranger Joe was quite accurate.

Hartwig

Thank you. Playing against the computer, I do a lot of attacking in China early.

[Uncivil Engineer]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

If you shock attack while he is out of supply, a lot of those disablements will be destroyed. My rule of thumb for his strength would be to subtract the infantry and engineer disabled squads from his starting AV. In this case 757 - (526 + 47) = 757 - 573 = 184. While some might repair, he did have a supply malus. Your should still be over 1900 and his might rise to 200. Still it should be at least 8:1 in raw AV. Modify it for the terrain and you still have good odds. Trash those two division and they will be out of action for a few days. I would consider a regular attack while any units without a lot of irreplaceable devices might shock.

But are any units moving in? That would change things.

The engineer disabled squads are 69, not 47 (that's guns), so the calculation should be 757 - 526 - 69 = 162.
Remarkably, his adjusted AV in the shock attack was 160. So, kudos to Ranger Joe.
And those divisions will be out for more than a few days; in stock it would be a few weeks, but replacements are likely different in this mod.

[BBfanboy]

Kudos on your defence/offence combo in China! You just kicked him in the Victory Diseased nuts!

You have a pilot with 7 kills in a Fulmar! That guy is a miracle worker! Even against unescorted bombers I don't know how he would catch them. [:D]

[RangerJoe]

The engineer disabled squads are 69, not 47 (that's guns), so the calculation should be 757 - 526 - 69 = 162.

Sorry, my mistake. [:@] I needed my coffee . . .

Kudos on your defence/offence combo in China! You just kicked him in the Victory Diseased nuts!

Agreed. [&o] The best defense is a good offense.

Your air defense in China is doing well. A suggestion would be to bring some of the base forces in Burma to Lashio and then walk them into China. Then you can pop in air units from India and train them against any un/under escorted bomber units. They would also provide engineers, a little AAA fire for the base and allow for Radar warning about raids.

Also for China, consider equipping one of the AVG squadrons with P-40Es. They can then carry bombs and make fast anti-shipping strikes on task forces going to Wuchang and vicinity. They also can carry drop tanks so they can relocate to bases farther away. Then you can upgrade a CAF fighter unit or two to the H81-A3 - once their pilots know what to do with the fighters!

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
You have a pilot with 7 kills in a Fulmar! That guy is a miracle worker! Even against unescorted bombers I don't know how he would catch them. [:D]

I believe that pilot was in a land-based British group defending Singers. I moved him to the carrier later on. My carrier pilots/planes are not in the state I want them to be as of yet; another reason I'd like to avoid battle with his combined carriers. Still waiting on next turn from John.

[DOCUP]

Great job in China all around.

[Anachro]

Feb 2-3, 1942

Two things happen this turn and one thing is developing. First, I have destroyers and cruisers bombard Midway for little gain and some damage. It seems he has already mined the hex and I lose 2 Wickes-class destroyers in the process - a shame and stupidity on my part. Should have brought some DMS's but I wasn't expecting mines already I guess. Nonetheless, I sink 2 SSX subs during the same attack from ASW so the point loss isn't too bad. Second, the CL Helena and some destroyer escorts hit a number of minor Japanese cargo task forces at Ocean Island and sink a number of riffraff. My favorite part of this exchange is my combat vessels all get a nice little jump in night-fighting experience.

TF 113 encounters mine field at Midway Island (158,91)

Allied Ships
DD Crane, Mine hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Crosby, Mine hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Dent, Mine hits 1, heavy damage



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Ocean Island at 130,129, Range 8,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
xAKL Hagoromo Maru, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
xAKL Noshiro Maru #2, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
xAKL Takunan Maru #10, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
xAKL Tama Maru #2, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
xAKL Choan Maru #2, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
PB Koei Maru, Shell hits 23, and is sunk
xAK Shoan Maru, Shell hits 10, and is sunk
xAK Shuko Maru, Shell hits 13, and is sunk
xAKL Katsuragisan Maru, Shell hits 9, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Tsuneshima Maru, Shell hits 12, and is sunk
xAKL Kayo Maru, Shell hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied Ships
CL Helena
DD Monaghan
DD Dale
DD Worden

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Nauru Island at 127,128, Range 7,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
xAK Kokuyo Maru, Shell hits 23, and is sunk
xAK Kinkasan Maru, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
xAK Morioka Maru, Shell hits 13, and is sunk
xAKL Momoyama Maru, Shell hits 12, and is sunk
xAKL Tamaki Maru, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
xAKL Honan Maru, Shell hits 15, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CL Helena
DD Monaghan
DD Dale
DD Worden

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Nauru Island at 127,128, Range 8,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
xAK Kuwayama Maru, Shell hits 7, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Katsura Maru, Shell hits 1, on fire
xAKL Kaito Maru
xAKL Muko Maru, Shell hits 1
xAKL Heizan Maru, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
xAKL Tenposan Maru, Shell hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Shoyu Maru, Shell hits 1, on fire
xAKL Hokuan Maru, Shell hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied Ships
CL Helena
DD Monaghan
DD Dale
DD Worden

Down in the SoPac, things are still pretty interesting regarding potential for the future. He has a large number of vessels near Canton Island. Based on my nav search and recon, this includes BCs/CBs, destroyers, AMCs, xAKs, maybe xAPs, and CA's. Currently, his carriers are east of Pago Pago and just recon'd it to find some xAKs sitting in port. My carriers are southeast of Canton and should be able to move north towards it unmolested for the moment. The way I see it, John has three options: 1) Attack the free VPs sitting in port; 2) Head north to try to exact revenge against CL Helena; and 3)Mover towards Canton to cover his ships.

If I were John, I'd move to cover his transports. But this is John we're talking about, I think he will attack. If he does this, this gives me a potential window from which to attack his transports and some of the heavy ships mixed in. I would love to sink his BCs, CAs, or CBs (and parts of his Marine division). If this happens, I should be able to move in, hit his stuff, then move east towards Palmyra and/or Pearl Harbor. Even if he moves his carriers to cover, mine are a safe enough distance away to not be spotted next turn. This could be fun...



Ships Sunk Last Turn
One DD isn't listed; although it's not sunk or on fire, its flotation damage is listed at 92. Maybe, just maybe, it will survive tomorrow, but I don't want to stick around and suffer potential air attack tomorrow.

[RangerJoe]

I have saved ships with 95 flotation damage but they were 2 or 3 hexes from a base.

Good job at Ocean, Naurum and Midway on those ships and SSXs. Those xAKs will not be hauling any resources back to the Home Islands. But check your bombard range and keep farther out to sea and try to avoid sweeping mines with your ships hulls.

If you think that he is going to attack the port, scatter the ships in 1 or two ship task forces. Maybe even having some fast but cheap ones charging at the KB to get a reaction and have their air units attack the individual ships. Leave the less valuable ones at a slower speed and the more important ones at full speed.

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
I have saved ships with 95 flotation damage but they were 2 or 3 hexes from a base.

Me too, but this destroyer is stuck at speed of 2 on Midway. Midway has an airbase level of 3. He can fly bombers in.

But check your bombard range and keep farther out to sea and try to avoid sweeping mines with your ships hulls.

If you think that he is going to attack the port, scatter the ships in 1 or two ship task forces. Maybe even having some fast but cheap ones charging at the KB to get a reaction and have their air units attack the individual ships. Leave the less valuable ones at a slower speed and the more important ones at full speed.

Normally I would stay father out, but forgot to think he might have mines there already. Mistake on my part. Regarding the port, I'd be happy if he strikes. I have nothing there but riffraff. xAKLs an the like. They are already being moved at full speed to nearby ports at different speeds.

[modrow]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

mage]https://i.imgur.com/U03Zo3e.png[/img]

Ships Sunk Last Turn
One DD isn't listed; although it's not sunk or on fire, its flotation damage is listed at 92. Maybe, just maybe, it will survive tomorrow, but I don't want to stick around and suffer potential air attack tomorrow.

Another good job picking at his shipping . I think that this is the way to go for now, but be careful you do not develop a pattern that can be used against you.

You mentioned already the exp benefits, which are very important indeed. But I also think the value of the "riff raff shipping" is often underestimated. Ships sufficiently small that a lvl 1 port can dock several of them simultaneously can be very valuable, they should not be frittered away and judged by their low VP values. Last not least, a huge empire means long distances to cover to keep bases/assets supplied and provide fuel or increased demand of merchant shipping, so every bit of shipping lost counts.

Hartwig

[RangerJoe]

You mentioned already the exp benefits, which are very important indeed. But I also think the value of the "riff raff shipping" is often underestimated. Ships sufficiently small that a lvl 1 port can dock several of them simultaneously can be very valuable, they should not be frittered away and judged by their low VP values. Last not least, a huge empire means long distances to cover to keep bases/assets supplied and provide fuel or increased demand of merchant shipping, so every bit of shipping lost counts.

Hartwig

Death by a thousand cuts.

They are also useful in invasions and hot zones where everything needs to get loaded/unloaded fast.

[Panther Bait]

Not to mention the frustration level this is probably generating in your opponent. If you can get him worked up enough to "Hulk smash" that might open up opportunities to really do some damage.

Mike

[T Rav]

Every ship can be a minesweeper... once.


Great AAR BTW. Thanks.