Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

12/26/44

Ships Sunk: The sea battle was fairly even except for BBs...and the fact that the Allies could (mostly) afford what they lost, Japan (mostly) can't.

[Canoerebel]

I'll post a few more screens tonight, especially regarding the land campaign at and near Wakkanai.

[Canoerebel]

12/26/44

L+5: Arleigh Burke is alive.

Richelieu isn't badly damaged, but I'll probably send her back to the West Coast with the next egressers, including BB Alabama and CA Boston.

In the past ten days, the Allies have lost one BB (Idaho) with two others suffering modest damage. The Japanese have lost at least one (Ise) and probably two more (Yamato and Hyuga). BB Wisconsin is inbound.

[RangerJoe]

A bloody day for both sides but I think that in the long run, you came out ahead. You can still perform offensive operations. Most of his cripples should end up in Sapporo, so maybe some night port bombing as well as laying a few extra mines?

For that wooded hex, especially if that US division can make it for the defense, maybe dropping the paratroopers? That way, if he shock attacks the armor, an infantry division, and an airborne division, he could be gutted and then subjected to the airborne shock attack. That probably would end his chances of reinforcing by land and his best chance to reinforce by sea is probably gone. Of course, with all of that AAA there and fighter CAP/LRCAP it might just be too risky.

Do you have any mines at Wakkanai? That could slow any IJN SSTs as well as any nuisance raids.

With so much of the IJN surface fleet gone, you might start planning for some Sapparo bombardments as well. That could put a few holes in his fighter force there.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
...
You say dumb luck, I say absurd late-44 USN flak levels.

And possibly pilot quality.

Keep reading (from the point that you quoted me), and you'll see why I referred to it as dumb luck.

I did, but I didn't see why else it could be.

[JohnDillworth]

Well, you hold the field and the attack did not result with the fox in the hen-house. Your opponent may look at those air loses and assume the Death Stars offensive capabilities are diminished and follow up with the KB..........or not. You guys are throwing haymakers. Clearly not sustainable. Pity your drydocks are so far away. Once you send a ship back it may never return. Well, it's 1945. Go look at your new ship queue. Should have a whole bunch of DD's and other stuff coming on line.

[Canoerebel]

I graded this as a significant Allied victory. Judging by body language, I think Erik did too (he plays things close to his vest).

My first time through the map confirms the general impression I formed during the turn. The Allies air force (even the LBA squadrons that suffered losses) is fine going forward. I suffered a few losses at sea but had enough "surplus" to cover that and perhaps one more similar engagement. And Death Star was basically untouched.

The Allies will continue doing what they were doing - working the Wakkanai campaign to its end - and perhaps undertake other missions.


To answer a few questions:
1. I won't sow mines at Wakkanai because that's an enemy base. I'd be as likely to hit the mines as he would be.
2. I probably won't commit combat ships or my air force against Sapporo until Wakkanai is done or nearly so. Sapporo is no doubt heavily mined and will have other defenses. I'd have to LRCAP my ships, which would further dilute my LRCAP that is currently stretched to cover the ground units at Wakkanai and the adjacent wooded hex plus various TFs.
3. As usual, there is a great deal going on beneath the hood, some of which you'll see near-term and others medium-term. Finishing off Wakkanai is key to triggering other operations.

Erik can continue to defend against ops using his air force and cobbled-together naval forces, so forays against Hokkaido proper or points south will still be very dangerous. But his outposts in the Kuriles are basically defenseless now (allowing for subs and mines and MTBs). I think he'll consider withdrawing as much of his garrisons as possible by air transport or sub, but first he has his air transports committed to Wakkanai. I have the same issue - I'd like to LRCAP his Kuriles bases but have higher needs for my fighters.

As 1944 draws to a close, the Allied have seemingly taken control in the Kuriles, are probably going to take Wakkanai in a week or so, and have reduced the Imperial Navy considerably. Looking into the beginning of 1945, I should be able to batter coastal bases by sea.

The key to everything remains to try to break the enemy fighter corps. If and when that's done, the Allies will be able to engage in strategic bombing efficiently.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Please, a mournful silence for the death of the Pride of the Japanese navy, or so we hope. A sad event in every PBEM. Fun fact: I had one sub luckily place 4+ torpedoes (might have been 6, not sure if possible in one attack event) in the Yamato in one PBEM. No duds. Reported sunk and then later reported incorrectly listed sunk. That thing is a beast.

It was before your time on the forum, but the inimitable Greyjoy sank Yamato with a single torpedo ... from a PT Boat! Magazine hit of course.

[JohnDillworth]

I graded this as a significant Allied victory. Judging by body language, I think Erik did too (he plays things close to his vest).

I can't blame Erik for being down. That was a well coordinated strike with just about everything he had. You played it well but it could have gone more his way or at least more evenly. The multiple DD task force is a tactic you employ well and and you have had continued success with it. It is so hard to get through those multiple screens and still have some punch left

[JohnDillworth]

It was before your time on the forum, but the inimitable Greyjoy sank Yamato with a single torpedo ... from a PT Boat! Magazine hit of course.

The man is now a legend.....or a myth......some doubt he ever existed...but I remember the time when gods walked the earth.........

[Canoerebel]

Remember the Titans. Remember Greyjoy.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
…Pity your drydocks are so far away. Once you send a ship back it may never return. Well, it's 1945. Go look at your new ship queue. Should have a whole bunch of DD's and other stuff coming on line.

Compared to my game with John III, the shipyards aren't that far away. Shikuka to Prince Rupert (size 10) is 73 hexes; Seattle is 90 hexes. The threat of enemy action is largely restricted to the vicinity of the Kuriles, and that should continue to diminish. Once the ships are 20 hexes east of Paramushiro, they are usually in the clear.

In my game with John III, from the DEI campaign through the opening months of the Philippines campaign, my closest shipyard was Brisbane at 78 hexes and Sydney at 85. But those were straight line distances and there were many enemy-held airfields along my LOC; also enemy combat TFs and sometimes carriers. I didn't bother sending the biggest ships home, hoping I could take Manila, Hong Kong, etc., and open up repair facilities that way.

I think Richelieu and Alabama may need two months in yards; Boston perhaps more.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I graded this as a significant Allied victory. Judging by body language, I think Erik did too (he plays things close to his vest).

I can't blame Erik for being down. That was a well coordinated strike with just about everything he had. You played it well but it could have gone more his way or at least more evenly. The multiple DD task force is a tactic you employ well and and you have had continued success with it. It is so hard to get through those multiple screens and still have some punch left

We both got lucky and unlucky. Had my carriers moved the one hex assigned, or had I set strike aircraft range to two, he wouldn've lost alot more ships.

But I got lucky that a majority of my ships at the wooded hex didn't get hit - I could've lost Missouri and Pasadena and plenty of assault shipping.

I'd like to know why the Kates from KB that hit Missouri with three bombs weren't carrying torpedoes. Very lucky there, I think. Dumb luck, even if Lokasenna doesn't see it that way.

[Lokasenna]

Could have been a range issue. Kates can't carry torpedoes out past 7 hexes.

[Canoerebel]

That's the answer. Range was 8.

[jwolf]

Many kudos to Erik for a thrilling game here. He made the decision -- rightly IMHO -- that this is the hill to die on, and he is throwing everything he's got at you. The only thing missing, I guess, are kamikazes which apparently are just about to get triggered?

[Canoerebel]

I don't think Wakkanai triggers kamikazes. I think anywhere else on Hokkaido, or any island closer to Tokyo than Uruppu, will do so.

I agree with you. Erik's best chances are the ones he has taken - to attack at Shikuka and to attack here. His attacks are always dense and intricately planned. The problem is that the Allies have so much in such proximity to his vitals. Things might've gone the other way, especially early on, but now the snowball seems to be gathering momentum and rolling downhill against Japan.

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't think Wakkanai triggers kamikazes. I think anywhere else on Hokkaido, or any island closer to Tokyo than Uruppu, will do so.

But you landed south of Wakkanai, do non base hexes count??

[Canoerebel]

There will be a temptation to see what happened as inevitable. That recent events are primarily because it is late in the game and the Allies have too much firepower.

I don't think so, any more than an Allied victory at Normandy was "inevitable." Eisenhower prepared a speech in case the Allies had to withdraw; one of the air commanders strongly recommended that they not use the airborne troops, lest they incur 80% casualties; the Allies were concerned that an Allied defeat might prod Russia into seeking a separate peace, etc. In hindsight, D-Day has that air of inevitability. IN foresight, it didn't.

The same thing here. Erik is gifted and crafty. HIs air force seems immensely strong and large. Until the October naval battle at Shikuka, his navy seemed overpowering, given it was fighting defensively in its own territory and had incurred few losses during the game. His army is untouched. His points lead big. He had months or years to craft his defenses in depth and to prepare forts. As far as I know, he is flush with supply.

Against that, the Allies had to penetrate, take, establish, hold, withstand, and eventually attack. Attacking is almost always more costly then defending (part of the reason why Allied losses in Western Europe were always higher than Wermacht losses). Taking over the game in March 1944, the tasks to perform seemed insurmountable, especially given Erik's abilities as a player.

There is much fighting left and Erik will sting many times. He still has a large points lead and it will be tough for me to reach 2x anytime in 1945. But no longer does it seem like the Allies cannot prevail. There's a chance now.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JeffroK

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't think Wakkanai triggers kamikazes. I think anywhere else on Hokkaido, or any island closer to Tokyo than Uruppu, will do so.

But you landed south of Wakkanai, do non base hexes count??

I don't believe so, Jeff.