This is the first day, I think, of this happening. Previous ground losses and airfield shutdown occurred from sea bombardment.

Moderators: wdolson, MOD_War-in-the-Pacific-Admirals-Edition




ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
December 14, 1944
During the second unloading phase, this occurs. This is definitely within the kamikaze activation zone as measured from Saigon, and Pontianak already has a level 1 AF so it qualifies.
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ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
The fall of Luzon, which now appears to be happening early in 1945, is going to have enormous ramifications - bad and good, but almost entirely bad. It is essentially a linchpin holding the entire SW corner of Japanese territory together.
Bad Dominoes
Without Luzon, I can't reliably supply Singapore and Burma because I'll have lost the ability to use large enough convoys to matter.
Without the supply, I can't continue to defend Singapore and Rangoon in strength.
Without continuing to hold the line I've been holding outside Rangoon (where I'm rather proud of the stalemate that shows no signs of letting up), all of Malaysia is threatened - and there is no good place to defend on land until you get back to the Chiang Mai + Uttaradit/Rahaeng area.
However, with Luzon down... the coast of Indochina is now vulnerable, essentially in the rear of Thailand.
So essentially, I'm going to have to abandon everything west and south of some point in northern Indochina. I also do not really have the infrastructure in place to defend at that area yet. It's coming along, but it's not there yet.
One major factor to my ability to delay the autovictory threshold is remaining in control of China. That's going to start to look at least somewhat dicey in a couple of months.
I have a few divisions' worth of troops that may be trapped in the middle-PI at Tacloban and Baybay.
"Good" things
With less territory to defend (defending Rangoon, Luzon, Singapore, and Sumatra to various degrees is too hard with this OOB), I will be able to better concentrate my air power.
I added up all the base VPs that would swap hands. Without accounting for various OOB losses (LCUs, air, ships), the 3 major bases (Manila, Singapore, Rangoon) changing to Allied hands would "only" shift the VP ratio from 1.444:1 in my favor to about 1.25:1 in my favor. I need to keep this context in mind when I am considering when and how much to commit to major defensive efforts. I can't throw away my major fleet elements to defend any of these, for example. They must be held back to deter larger-than-necessary Allied hops towards Japan or China.
On the 19th of December, I adjusted my Refinery and HI production in Japan. At current stocks, Oil in Japan will last until the end of January 1946. Same for fuel (which doesn't account for ship expenditures). However, Resources are still sitting at only 10.5M stored, which is a 151-day stockpile. Supplies in Japan are at 3.6M and empire-wide they are at 6.6M. So I am probably OK here, but it will depend on pace of operations and relative rates of attrition. If I begin losing hundreds of planes per day and my LCUs take too many replacements, I could start to run short.
Iffy things
Not sure I can leave enough of a garrison at various bases in SE Asia to significantly slow an Allied march from Burma or Malaysia. I have forts 9 at Moulmein, for example... but I don't know if they'll ever be used now. Forts at Rangoon are at 7. Whatever troops are left to defend there will die there. Almost all of my troops are crack units at this point, particularly in Asia - veterans of the long Chungking siege. Am I really willing to spend a division or two of 90+ Exp troops defending places I'm going to lose rather quickly in any case just because there are high forts there? That's part of the reason I recently withdrew 2+ divisions from the Marianas. With the thrust in the PI, they just weren't worth having there anymore.
ORIGINAL: mind_messing
I think you're going to need to give up the stalemate in Burma simply to secure the back end areas that are now exposed.
Sending what you have in Northern Burma into the mountains around Paoshan might be something worth considering. The terrain is excellent for defence, and that might let you peel off some troops to lock down Canton & Hong Kong.
The next best axis of defense that I can see is Moulmein-Rahaeng-Utteradit. It's pretty decent terrain, blocks his armoured advance and has decent routes for you to run away if you need to. Holding Chiang Mai would be nice, but I'd give that up if it meant getting garrison units into Indochina.
I'd hope that such a massive consolidation of your position would give you enough to contest Indochina, but it's got a lot of bases with a lot of distance between them.
I wouldn't beat yourself up about Luzon, all the terrain south of Manila is absolute garbage for defending anyways. Manila is the key hex for Luzon, as it's a bottleneck for the advance and nicely protected from the atomic naval bombardments. The x2 terrain helps a great deal also.
If you haven't already, Canton, Hong Kong and the surrounding regions need to be ready to fight of an invasion ASAP. The Hanoi to Hong Kong coastline is just lovely terrain for the Allies to throw a couple dozen tank units ashore
Regarding the value of leaving speedbumps for the Allies, I'd rather have five divisions delay one hex that one division each holding five different hexes. You've two major bottlenecks in the SEA area - the Malaysian penisula tapers down to two hexes, and another at Hanoi, with the road/rail hub. You give up a lot of territory in between, but you can't hold it all and the VP losses if your troops get cut off and destoryed will be much greater than the actual value of the bases anyhow.
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
This made for compelling reading. Action reports are the heart and soul of AARs, but detailed thoughtful analysis is pretty uncommon.
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
The fall of Luzon, which now appears to be happening early in 1945, is going to have enormous ramifications - bad and good, but almost entirely bad. It is essentially a linchpin holding the entire SW corner of Japanese territory together.
Bad Dominoes
Without Luzon, I can't reliably supply Singapore and Burma because I'll have lost the ability to use large enough convoys to matter.
Without the supply, I can't continue to defend Singapore and Rangoon in strength.
Without continuing to hold the line I've been holding outside Rangoon (where I'm rather proud of the stalemate that shows no signs of letting up), all of Malaysia is threatened - and there is no good place to defend on land until you get back to the Chiang Mai + Uttaradit/Rahaeng area.
However, with Luzon down... the coast of Indochina is now vulnerable, essentially in the rear of Thailand.
So essentially, I'm going to have to abandon everything west and south of some point in northern Indochina. I also do not really have the infrastructure in place to defend at that area yet. It's coming along, but it's not there yet.
One major factor to my ability to delay the autovictory threshold is remaining in control of China. That's going to start to look at least somewhat dicey in a couple of months.
I have a few divisions' worth of troops that may be trapped in the middle-PI at Tacloban and Baybay.
"Good" things
With less territory to defend (defending Rangoon, Luzon, Singapore, and Sumatra to various degrees is too hard with this OOB), I will be able to better concentrate my air power.
I added up all the base VPs that would swap hands. Without accounting for various OOB losses (LCUs, air, ships), the 3 major bases (Manila, Singapore, Rangoon) changing to Allied hands would "only" shift the VP ratio from 1.444:1 in my favor to about 1.25:1 in my favor. I need to keep this context in mind when I am considering when and how much to commit to major defensive efforts. I can't throw away my major fleet elements to defend any of these, for example. They must be held back to deter larger-than-necessary Allied hops towards Japan or China.
On the 19th of December, I adjusted my Refinery and HI production in Japan. At current stocks, Oil in Japan will last until the end of January 1946. Same for fuel (which doesn't account for ship expenditures). However, Resources are still sitting at only 10.5M stored, which is a 151-day stockpile. Supplies in Japan are at 3.6M and empire-wide they are at 6.6M. So I am probably OK here, but it will depend on pace of operations and relative rates of attrition. If I begin losing hundreds of planes per day and my LCUs take too many replacements, I could start to run short.
Iffy things
Not sure I can leave enough of a garrison at various bases in SE Asia to significantly slow an Allied march from Burma or Malaysia. I have forts 9 at Moulmein, for example... but I don't know if they'll ever be used now. Forts at Rangoon are at 7. Whatever troops are left to defend there will die there. Almost all of my troops are crack units at this point, particularly in Asia - veterans of the long Chungking siege. Am I really willing to spend a division or two of 90+ Exp troops defending places I'm going to lose rather quickly in any case just because there are high forts there? That's part of the reason I recently withdrew 2+ divisions from the Marianas. With the thrust in the PI, they just weren't worth having there anymore.
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: mind_messing
I think you're going to need to give up the stalemate in Burma simply to secure the back end areas that are now exposed.
Sending what you have in Northern Burma into the mountains around Paoshan might be something worth considering. The terrain is excellent for defence, and that might let you peel off some troops to lock down Canton & Hong Kong.
The next best axis of defense that I can see is Moulmein-Rahaeng-Utteradit. It's pretty decent terrain, blocks his armoured advance and has decent routes for you to run away if you need to. Holding Chiang Mai would be nice, but I'd give that up if it meant getting garrison units into Indochina.
I'd hope that such a massive consolidation of your position would give you enough to contest Indochina, but it's got a lot of bases with a lot of distance between them.
I wouldn't beat yourself up about Luzon, all the terrain south of Manila is absolute garbage for defending anyways. Manila is the key hex for Luzon, as it's a bottleneck for the advance and nicely protected from the atomic naval bombardments. The x2 terrain helps a great deal also.
If you haven't already, Canton, Hong Kong and the surrounding regions need to be ready to fight of an invasion ASAP. The Hanoi to Hong Kong coastline is just lovely terrain for the Allies to throw a couple dozen tank units ashore
Regarding the value of leaving speedbumps for the Allies, I'd rather have five divisions delay one hex that one division each holding five different hexes. You've two major bottlenecks in the SEA area - the Malaysian penisula tapers down to two hexes, and another at Hanoi, with the road/rail hub. You give up a lot of territory in between, but you can't hold it all and the VP losses if your troops get cut off and destoryed will be much greater than the actual value of the bases anyhow.
Upper Thailand would still be exposed to being cut off via invasion in Indochina. If I maintained a strong defense at Rahaeng, even extending to Moulmein for a while... first, how would I maintain supplies? It would all have to flow overland beginning in about 3 weeks (or less, maybe).
Second, if I'm at Rahaeng and the Allies land in strength at Hue, they're going to trap whatever's in Thailand.
With Luzon in enemy hands, the ability to disrupt any landings west of Hong Kong because very hard.
I have about 5000 AV in Burma and Malaysia. I've already begun railing support units towards Ubon (hoping he doesn't notice much of anything missing from Singapore, which is now under constant surveillance). A while back I withdrew about 1500 AV from the front lines in Burma.
It also turns out that I have ~1300 AV spread between the middle PI bases. My only way to get them out is going to be via air transports. That's how most of them got there, so I think I can do it, but we'll see.
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
December 21, 1944
Erik is getting great results from his LRCAP based over 8 hexes away on Mindanao.
ORIGINAL: Lowpe
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
December 21, 1944
Erik is getting great results from his LRCAP based over 8 hexes away on Mindanao.
Can you elaborate here? Great results how? I think I know, but often I don't.[;)]
