The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

[obvert]

The big cruisers then find the remains of a TF and mop up. Still haven't seen any bigger ships which we know are around due to run-ins with MTBs in the early part of the turn. This starts to make me feel worried.

[obvert]

Here they are, now, as th IJN DDs smoke, the Allies begin smashing them with more hits. The IJN BBs do hit hard, but they can't match the targeting or frequency of Allied gunnery at this point in the war. It begins to look bad.

[obvert]

The Allied bombardment gets though, which is a bad sign. This generally means the IJN have used up their ops, are disorganised and damaged, and low on ammo. This bears itself out during the rest of the turn.

[obvert]

Sweeps do a great job of clearing away the CAP, and this makes me optimistic for the air phases of the turn.

[obvert]

The LBA strikes go in and a number of them get bombers through and onto the main targets, including BB Missouri! Only a Kate actually hits the behemoth though. [:(]

[obvert]

Others do hit the invasion shipping though, including some fast transports. This is good, but not good enough.

[obvert]

Waves of unescorted Allied LBA begin to arrive, and although a lot are shot down, the LR CAP strangely hangs over Wakkanai and lets some get through to the BBs. This ends up being decisive.

[obvert]

Large LBA strikes against Wakkanai troops further weakens LR CAP but doesn't protect the troops.

[obvert]

Hyuga and the rest take hits from DBs and TBs, and it begins to get ugly.

[obvert]

Yamato swallows multiple fish, while a detached and lonely Ise succumbs to the air strikes as well and goes under.

[obvert]

At the end of the day, the Allies sink Ise, which is left alone out of ops and ammo against three Allied DDs. The airstrikes mortally wound the other two BBs, while Tone is also sunk by ring DDs near the end of the turn.

Yamato and Hyuga limp on, in spite of Yamato taking seven (!) torpedoes. If she does make it, her survival will only be symbolic as her war as a fighting ship is done. I'm glad now I didn't build Musashi after this performance! [:(][;)]

[obvert]

The real downer today is that the KB did not launch any strikes. Missouri and the amphibs would have been under a lot more pressure, and the ships at Wakkanai might have had more losses as well if those planes had flew. Dan got a sighting of them near Akita, so I'll pull back and regroup to look for another opportunity.

The BBs are two hexes out of Sapporo, but probably won't make it past tomorrow anyway.

The Allies now have a really serious blockade one hex South of Wakkanai. His landings on non-base hexes have surprised me, and I will be curious to see how effective those troops are in about a week if we can engage them.

[adarbrauner]

Another epic

[ericv]

Another epic battle, with mixed results. I had hoped the BB's would have delivered one more mighty punch.

On the bright side, your LBA and I assume, your carrier based airforces, are still very present and capable.
Very good planes, with good results overall air to air.

Burma still seems a big mess for him, and a lot of territory is still firmly in your hands.

The activation of kamikazes isn't far off, another thing to look forward to maybe? I am unfamiliar with the effectiveness of kamikaze as the farthest I have reached is januari 1943 in my current PBEM.
I don't know if you have experience with or expectations of their effectiveness?

In general, you are on the defensive but the window of time is closing for the Allies. It's december 1944, the coming winter months might hamper his operations.

[mind_messing]

Of course Yamato hits the DDs at Wakkanai first thing. They sink two, but this just reduces ammo and ops for later.

This is the real killer for the IJN in the late war. Any decent Allied invasion has an average of what, 10 to 20 dedicated TF's in the invasion hex. It's a lot of engagements to fight through and the game engine doesn't really handle it amazingly. It's frustrating to see torpedoes wasted on the likes of LST's when there's the potential for bigger targets in other TF's.


Of those, only three or four offer a real return in terms of VP's for risking high value IJN warships.

- the escorting BB's (risky: if it's slow BB's on bombardment duties they're normally Long Lance fodder, but the modern stuff can be dangerous).
- the covering CVE's (pretty much free VP's if you can properly engage them, they tend to burn very nicely in surface combat, but you need to luck out and avoid the hated "Allied CV TF evades combat")
- the invading amphibious ships (even then, they're often not worth the loss of IJN warships unless they're loaded chock full of troops).

I don't think you did anything wrong, you just got unlucky. The only other thing I could have thought to do was maybe peel two escorting DD's from every SCTF and have a bunch of two DD TF's patroling around the combat hex to provoke reactions from the Allies. I've had a bit of luck doing this with the likes of the E-class ships, PB's, basically anything with the slightest capacity in surface combat. They're not there to sink ships, just to sow confusion and draw off Allied assets out of the invasion hex. Sometimes they get lucky, I had some E-class ships maul a bunch of CVE's once. Obviously lucked out that day...

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Of course Yamato hits the DDs at Wakkanai first thing. They sink two, but this just reduces ammo and ops for later.

This is the real killer for the IJN in the late war. Any decent Allied invasion has an average of what, 10 to 20 dedicated TF's in the invasion hex. It's a lot of engagements to fight through and the game engine doesn't really handle it amazingly. It's frustrating to see torpedoes wasted on the likes of LST's when there's the potential for bigger targets in other TF's.


Of those, only three or four offer a real return in terms of VP's for risking high value IJN warships.

- the escorting BB's (risky: if it's slow BB's on bombardment duties they're normally Long Lance fodder, but the modern stuff can be dangerous).
- the covering CVE's (pretty much free VP's if you can properly engage them, they tend to burn very nicely in surface combat, but you need to luck out and avoid the hated "Allied CV TF evades combat")
- the invading amphibious ships (even then, they're often not worth the loss of IJN warships unless they're loaded chock full of troops).

I don't think you did anything wrong, you just got unlucky. The only other thing I could have thought to do was maybe peel two escorting DD's from every SCTF and have a bunch of two DD TF's patroling around the combat hex to provoke reactions from the Allies. I've had a bit of luck doing this with the likes of the E-class ships, PB's, basically anything with the slightest capacity in surface combat. They're not there to sink ships, just to sow confusion and draw off Allied assets out of the invasion hex. Sometimes they get lucky, I had some E-class ships maul a bunch of CVE's once. Obviously lucked out that day...

In the two battles at Shikuka I basically did that, sending in waves of smaller combat ships to kill off Dan's xAK blockades, eat DD ops and ammo and generally confuse the situation. Worked well the first time, less well the second time as there were just too many ships out there to engage, more than half of them merchants and LSTs several hexes from Shikuka.

This time I didn't feel I had the chance to show my cards by pulling together all assets. Surprise strikes carry risk, and I knew that going in, but felt the time was getting short and if I was going to try and turn something it had to be quickly. Since he hadn't spotted the KB I thought it was good timing.

He's only been using modern BBs for bombardments, and I'm not sure there are many old ones left. The Allies have lost a lot of BBs so far. I know Arkansas and New York just arrived so they should be around, but I haven't seen them yet. Luckily Alabama was hit with two midget sub fish a few days back, so she's out for a while.

It's up to the air power for a while as my cruisers now need to sit and protect Sapporo from getting hit by sea.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: ericv

Another epic battle, with mixed results. I had hoped the BB's would have delivered one more mighty punch.

On the bright side, your LBA and I assume, your carrier based airforces, are still very present and capable.
Very good planes, with good results overall air to air.

Burma still seems a big mess for him, and a lot of territory is still firmly in your hands.

The activation of kamikazes isn't far off, another thing to look forward to maybe? I am unfamiliar with the effectiveness of kamikaze as the farthest I have reached is januari 1943 in my current PBEM.
I don't know if you have experience with or expectations of their effectiveness?

In general, you are on the defensive but the window of time is closing for the Allies. It's december 1944, the coming winter months might hamper his operations.

I've been to this stage once and kamis were very effective for m, but the VP ratio is tough unless you hit the jackpot with a lone CVE TF or something. Still they are good in combination with standard bombing and torpedoes, and I have 3,000 airframes ready to go with a lot of trained kami pilots.

If I run them high and low with DB in between and different TB all over the altitude range, it should get through the CAP. I'll go over some airframe stuff soon looking at losses versus production/arrival of airframes. It seems like he can never run out, but I think actually it's getting tight over there now for replacements.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

The real downer today is that the KB did not launch any strikes. .

Any idea why?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert

The real downer today is that the KB did not launch any strikes. .

Any idea why?

Weather. Didn't get the dozens of CAP destroyed search planes, so must be weather.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]Dec 27, 1944[/font]

---

We're now very close to 45, and very close to kamis, if indeed Wakkanai continues down the slope it's been falling along since the invasion a mere week ago. I never anticipated this fast a demise, but he's put a lot of force behind the Allied army with bombardments by sea and air. Even the extra troops I'm flying in are just stemming a complete breakdown, and delaying only possibly a few extra days. We'll see.

Today a shock takes forts down to 4 and gets a 3:1. That is no good at all.

In the night the Hyuga sinks, but the Yamato lasts another day, moving one hex closer to Sapporo. An RO sub hits CA Cumberland with two fish, which is nice, but won't alter much.

The B-29s also hit Maebashi, but NF from there and Tokyo hit em hard, with a cool dozen downed for all of 1 hit to the Jack factory.

In the day massed sweeps hit the hex south of Wakkanai just as the DS moves in there. The Allied CAP takes very heavy losses, with George N1K5 and Frank Ki-84r doing the heavy lifting. On the day the Japanese are well ahead, with over 150 Hellcats and about 200 total naval fighters lost for the Allies. Some small strikes arrived for the Japanese, and mostly were slaughtered in the afternoon once some CAP recovered, which evened numbers. If I'd committed the KB today though the strikes would have been devastating if they'd arrived after the sweeps. Hmmmm.

I'll have to look at total losses versus numbers, as it seems like the Allies might be getting low on naval air replacements.
[font="Trebuchet MS"][/font]
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Dec 27, 1944
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Night Air attack on Maebashi , at 113,59

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 74 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 47
Ki-45 KAId Nick x 13

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 30

Japanese aircraft losses
J1N1-Sa Irving: 2 destroyed
Ki-45 KAId Nick: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 6 damaged

J2M5 Jack factory hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 11000 feet
City Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Night Air attack on Maebashi , at 113,59

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 45 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 42
Ki-45 KAId Nick x 11

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
J1N1-Sa Irving: 1 destroyed
Ki-45 KAId Nick: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed, 3 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 11000 feet
City Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Night Air attack on Maebashi , at 113,59

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 35 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 33
Ki-45 KAId Nick x 8

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
J1N1-Sa Irving: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed, 4 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 11000 feet
City Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Sub attack near Wakkanai at 122,49

Japanese Ships
SS I-35, hits 11

Allied Ships
CA Cumberland, Torpedo hits 2
DD Bailey
DD Hobby
DD Gillespie

SS I-35 launches 6 torpedoes at CA Cumberland
I-35 bottoming out ....

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Morning Air attack on 112th Cavalry Regiment, at 122,49 , near Wakkanai

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 43,370 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K5-J George x 30

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 19
Hellcat I x 10
Hellcat F.II x 18
Seafire IIC x 25
Seafire L.III x 4
P-38L Lightning x 10
F4F-4 Wildcat x 17
FM-2 Wildcat x 11
F4U-1A Corsair x 131
F4U-1D Corsair x 86
F6F-3 Hellcat x 629
F6F-5 Hellcat x 335

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K5-J George: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hellcat I: 1 destroyed
Hellcat F.II: 1 destroyed
F4U-1A Corsair: 1 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 6 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 5 destroyed

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Morning Air attack on 112th Cavalry Regiment, at 122,49 , near Wakkanai

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 49 NM, estimated altitude 43,270 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84r Frank x 26

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 19
Hellcat I x 8
Hellcat F.II x 15
Seafire IIC x 23
Seafire L.III x 4
P-38L Lightning x 2
F4F-4 Wildcat x 17
FM-2 Wildcat x 11
F4U-1A Corsair x 123
F4U-1D Corsair x 70
F6F-3 Hellcat x 565
F6F-5 Hellcat x 300

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84r Frank: 6 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hellcat I: 1 destroyed
F4U-1A Corsair: 1 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 6 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 2 destroyed

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Ground combat at Wakkanai (122,48)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 73773 troops, 1102 guns, 1778 vehicles, Assault Value = 1915

Defending force 42097 troops, 464 guns, 25 vehicles, Assault Value = 941

Allied adjusted assault: 1865

Japanese adjusted defense: 475

Allied assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 5)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 4

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
2197 casualties reported
Squads: 86 destroyed, 66 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 18 disabled
Engineers: 14 destroyed, 14 disabled
Guns lost 21 (13 destroyed, 8 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1684 casualties reported
Squads: 7 destroyed, 194 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 45 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 21 disabled
Guns lost 50 (3 destroyed, 47 disabled)
Vehicles lost 143 (7 destroyed, 136 disabled)

Assaulting units:
131st Combat Engineer Regiment
93rd Infantry Division
5th USMC Tank Battalion
192nd Tank Battalion
762nd Tank Battalion
98th Infantry Division
3rd Regiment
1st Australian Division
77th Infantry Division
2/6th Armoured Regiment
3rd Marine Division
110th Combat Engineer Battalion
2/4th Armoured Regiment
11th Airborne Div /2
82nd Mortar Battalion
147th Field Artillery Regiment
I Corps Artillery
265th Coastal Artillery Regiment
3rd USMC Field Artillery Battalion
8th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
205th Field Artillery Battalion
Provisional GMC Grp

Defending units:
11th Ind.Mixed Regiment
Soya Fortress
72nd Division
Karafuto Mixed Brigade
43rd Div /2
51st Ind.Mixed Brigade
89th Div /2
218th Naval Construction Battalion
5th Fleet
29th Field AF Construction Battalion
206th Naval Construction Battalion
23rd Air Flotilla
178th JAAF AF Bn

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One small strike got through and actually almost got a hit on Princeton. Almost.