Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

12/27/44

L+6: Three Allied destroys, modestly damaged yesterday, apparently took the long way around Sikhalin Island. I didn't notice with all that was going on yesterday.

P.S. Just checked the Allied units at Shikuka. They are in fine condition and wish to attack again, but they'll rest one day.

[Canoerebel]

12/27/44

HMS Cumberland: Damage less than expected.

Heading to Bremerton as soon as Wakkanai falls - BBs Richelieu and Alabama; CAs Cumberland and Boston.

[Canoerebel]

12/27/44

L+6: Sobering air losses today - 150 Hellcats (all Death Star) and plenty of Corsairs. Erik lost good fighters too. How to play this? Protecting Death Star to replenish fighters is key; getting troops ashore is key.

I don't think the pilot situation will be critical, for most DS fighter squadrons are overstaffed. And I have enough replacment Hellcats and Corsairs to make good the losses.

But this pace is unsustainable for me. (I hope it is for Erik too, but I don't know that.)

I have working ideas for short-term and medium-term missions, and this situation helps confirm those.

[Lecivius]

IF he is still flush on supply, he can out produce you. It's a part of the game I am uncomfortable with.

[Canoerebel]

I have to work on the assumption that he is flush with supply, and he probably is. (Fortunately, he can't produce ships outside the OOB.)

[Canoerebel]

12/28/44

L+7: A small amphibious TF unloads at Wakkanai - the objective being to trigger an enemy bombardment.

This is an interesting turn, but not for combat reasons. I pulled Death Star and most amphibs back, to regroup a bit and on the possibility that Erik might order an all-out air strike. Erik either decided to stand down his forces or weather made that decision for him.

So it was quiet from that standpoint. But two major things are underway that require some chance-taking and thorough analysis:

1. It is critical to land the reinforcements tomorrow. Both amphib transports were ordered forward to rendezvous with DS. Based upon the "lay of the land," I must choose whether to send them in to the wooded hex or to Wakkanai tomorrow. Many factors will influence the decision but in the end it will come down to a hunch.

2. An armada is inbound from the Aleutians and CenPac, including a carrier TF, lots of reinforcements, and more supply. Erik got some 1/0 detection on the CenPac group (including the carriers) the past few days, making me increasingly apprehensive about continuing with this insertion in the absence of Death Star.

I considered detaching Death STar to steam east yesterday, but ultimately decided the Wakkanai/woods hex missions were more important. I steered the ingressers further north, hoping to avoid any combat ship/carrier trap Erik might spring from the Home Islands (I put the odds at 25% or so). But Parmushiro shows 75 "other" aircraft and Erik increased patrols substantially. The fear was that he might load up Para, Onnekotan and Shimishura with hundreds of aircraft that might overwhelm the carrier TF. The fact that it shows no detection and should come no closer than 8 or 9 hexes today gave me enough confidence to continue the mission.

This morning, when I awoke, I had immediate regrets. I should've stood down the ingessers and pulled them back to the Aleutians, until DS is available.

So let's see what happens.

[Canoerebel]

12/28/44

L+7: Weak bombardment.

The Iowa/NJ TF is to move from Shikuka to join Death Star today, preparatory to bombarding Wakkanai tomorrow.

If the map looks good when I open the turn, the Allies will attack at Wakkanai tomorrow.

[Canoerebel]

12/28/44

L+7: Most Allied 2EB and 4EB given the day off. A few B-24s were given a mission, mostly to see what kind of LRCAP Erik posts over the island today: None.

That information will be helpful in deciding whether to land the two inbound divisions at Wakkanai or the woods hex.

As the turn is running, now, I have a hunch how I'll handle that.

[Canoerebel]

12/28/44

L+7: Allied armor continues to block the road - third day consecutive. It will probably evaporate tomorrow.

Erik is still advancing over-land. The army is a stout one, but he'll need more than this to break through the woods hex, I think.

Or he might simply plan on establishing a strong blocking force to hem in the Allied army at Wakkanai. But my working plan does not envision an advance out of Wakkanai.

[Canoerebel]

12/28/44

Uruppu-Jima: The end is near. Several divisions here are prepping for Wakkanai but almost certainly won't be needed there. When they switch prep to a new target, the percentage will be at or near 0. So they'll be aimed at a medium term target, 60 to 90 days out.

[Canoerebel]

12/28/44

L+7: Helpful bombardment phase, thanks mainly to Japanese bombardment.

Working plan is to keep 25th Div. in the woods hex, rather than letting it reinforce Wakkanai, even while the big combat engineer unit proceeds. 7th Div. (and perhaps 2nd Marine Div.) will land at Wakkanai tomorrow, partly to avoid enemy sweep activity over the woods hex (though Wakkanai has its own threats) and partly because those landings will trigger yet another destructive IJ bombardment.

[Canoerebel]

12/28/44

L+7: For a non-battle day, this map holds much encouraging information.

[Capt. Harlock]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/28/44

L+7: For a non-battle day, this map holds much encouraging information.

So . . . you have two Death Stars now? [;)]

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock
So . . . you have two Death Stars now? [;)]

I saw that. The end is, indeed, very near [;)]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I have to work on the assumption that he is flush with supply, and he probably is. (Fortunately, he can't produce ships outside the OOB.)

Just one minor-ish thing that's on my fantasy mod wishlist: additional ships in the queue, or an ahistorical production schedule. Like maybe literally an entire run of CAs, or a couple of battlecruisers, or even more DDs. There's so much flexibility in the aircraft production in terms of "what if" (yes yes, you have to accept that the resources to build them are abstracted), but very little in the naval production schedule.

You'd have to pick and choose what you would build, however. I dislike the massive number of IJN subs that are in the queue and barely build any of them after 1942. They cost more to produce than the Agano-class CLs. I know some players like their subs, but I don't find much use for so many IJN boats.

[Canoerebel]

12/29/44

Wakkanai (L+8): Decent bombardment.

Just prior to the bombardment, nightime nav search phase indicates the ingressors are at or near Ketoi. (Oops, I guess I can't refer to this as a second Death Star - it's just CV Lexington and a RN carrier.)

[Canoerebel]

12/29/44

Wakkanai: Lots of reinforcements coming ashore, including 2nd Marine Div. and 7th Infantry Div. Both are prepped in the 30s, so high disablements were expected...but not realized. Disablements were minor for both landings. This may be purely dice roll, but more likely due to the Amphib Force HQ (80% prepped).

[Canoerebel]

12/29/44

Wakkanai: 150 2EB from Toyohara face no opposition and score decently (by what I typically see). Allied sweeps preceded this and encountered no enemy CAP.

[Canoerebel]

12/29/44

Wakkanai: 30 4EB from Shikuka don't do much. Most of the B-24s and B-29s are "resting" for a few days.

[Canoerebel]

12/29/44

Blocking Hex: Allied armor attacked, battered, and "surrenders" (per message). It held in the hex for four days - more than expected.

The Japanese army is big but shouldn't be big enough to dislodge the Allied army gathering in the key wooded hex (2nd Marine Div. is heading that way from Wakkanai).

I'm not sure why enemy base force units are included - perhaps for the AA or possibly for CD guns (Erik anticipating that Allied bombardment TFs will hit the contested hex).