The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: obvert

[font="Times New Roman"]Dec 27, 1944[/font]

---

... I never anticipated this fast a demise, but he's put a lot of force behind the Allied army with bombardments by sea and air...

But this is of course the key about initiative: the ability to focus on offense whereas on defense the tendency is to disperse too many of your forces.


I am always reminded of the remarkable defense that PzB put up, and still astounded with his ability to react so effectively. As much as I have analyzed his game, I still cannot quite see how he managed it.


Still, you are playing very well, using all the tricks one can, against a very capable player. Watching with interest to see if you can shift enough force to Hokkaido to dislodge him.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
Watching with interest to see if you can shift enough force to Hokkaido to dislodge him.

I think that ship has sailed....but Japan can bleed him, and then bleed him some more and when not bleeding him, buy time. Easy to say![;)]

[Wuffer]

'Valar morghulis', in GJ's immortal sense: That was exspected.
If not for the stupid points, you should be glad getting rich of these huge fuel suckers. Seriously. At least it encourages him to continue in this sector of approach. And they have served you allready exceptional well (show me a another great performance of Axis' surface forces at the brink of '44/45?).

So, this 'Wakkidakki' base will fall. All its inhibitants are allready as dead as the garrisons on the invaded islands. He's in Hokkaido in force and will stay. That's life.

Only a suggestion, but instead of paralysis analysis (or some 'banzai'-yelling...), a day off and a calm hollistic view will probably serve you best. The first dam has broken, where to built the next, even better 'Gustav'-line? And what to commit?

The real fighting has just begun.
Yeah, some minor defeats in the last days, but your most valuable assets are still fine or even better than ever before.

I don't believe in body-count as a senseful strategy at all, but what did he has left: 4Es, fighters... and where are all his divisions?

And what did he really need....?

Maybe you should study Nemo's endgame AAR's?
Alfreds ideas of a counter somewhere should not completely forgetten, too.

@ Pax
Regarding PzB: Someone wise has suggested that Andy was faaar too predictable, perhaps some nasty auto-settings? (And he bugged out as supply become an issue...)

ah, 'in the long run we are all dead'. Lol.
----
back into radio silence...

[Wuffer]

PS: I wonder how you could handle three (3) of this beats (games including AARs) at a time?
wow.

[Lokasenna]

It "helps" that I'm so slow in getting turns back to him in one of them [:D]

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

It "helps" that I'm so slow in getting turns back to him in one of them [:D]

It's not your fault: now that you've learned your stealth technology is useless, you have to think harder! [:'(]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: obvert

[font="Times New Roman"]Dec 27, 1944[/font]

---

... I never anticipated this fast a demise, but he's put a lot of force behind the Allied army with bombardments by sea and air...

But this is of course the key about initiative: the ability to focus on offense whereas on defense the tendency is to disperse too many of your forces.


I am always reminded of the remarkable defense that PzB put up, and still astounded with his ability to react so effectively. As much as I have analyzed his game, I still cannot quite see how he managed it.


Still, you are playing very well, using all the tricks one can, against a very capable player. Watching with interest to see if you can shift enough force to Hokkaido to dislodge him.

Thanks Pax.

The Wakkanai invasion wasn't unexpected, and my reaction was ready to go. The non-base landings really changed the situation and I should have anticipated that. My mistake there.

Still, Hokkaido has a lot of troops and some good territory, plus it's getting a lot of troops flying back in from the very nearby Kuriles. The advantage of having only a one hex path to Wakkanai could turn into a bottleneck, even without stacking limits, if I can react quickly with massive force there.

The Allied response should be to then land beyond, which I'll be aware of. I was shocked that a tank unit landed outside a base was in such good fighting condition after less than a week. This could be a game changer.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

'Valar morghulis', in GJ's immortal sense: That was exspected.
If not for the stupid points, you should be glad getting rich of these huge fuel suckers. Seriously. At least it encourages him to continue in this sector of approach. And they have served you allready exceptional well (show me a another great performance of Axis' surface forces at the brink of '44/45?).

Yes, the first Shikuka battle and bombardment was positive, and it did set the game on a track that is more difficult for the Allies in the end. The BBs will be missed, but they simply aren't as competitive against modern Allied gunnery.

So, this 'Wakkidakki' base will fall. All its inhibitants are allready as dead as the garrisons on the invaded islands. He's in Hokkaido in force and will stay. That's life.

Only a suggestion, but instead of paralysis analysis (or some 'banzai'-yelling...), a day off and a calm hollistic view will probably serve you best. The first dam has broken, where to built the next, even better 'Gustav'-line? And what to commit?

The real fighting has just begun.
Yeah, some minor defeats in the last days, but your most valuable assets are still fine or even better than ever before.

I don't believe in body-count as a senseful strategy at all, but what did he has left: 4Es, fighters... and where are all his divisions?

I'll go through what I believe are the airframe counts as the new year turns, plus some status reports not eh Japanese economy.

And what did he really need....?

Maybe you should study Nemo's endgame AAR's?
Alfreds ideas of a counter somewhere should not completely forgetten, too.

The game itself has changed a bit due to patches and air fixes since those days. Nemo was a master, but massing Oscars for high kami runs just won't work as well as it used to do.

@ Pax
Regarding PzB: Someone wise has suggested that Andy was faaar too predictable, perhaps some nasty auto-settings? (And he bugged out as supply become an issue...)

ah, 'in the long run we are all dead'. Lol.
----
back into radio silence...

This is it. PzB did run out of supply in 44. A master tactician, but what good does it do if you suddenly can't supply troops or fuel up and arm the airplanes?

Due to the early loss at PH this game was intended as a conservative Japanese effort, not overextending, not over-building, not trying to create a decisive battle. I want to pick my spots, try to hit where I can get some positive VPs back, and protect the economy as best I can.

Thanks for the comments! Good to have a lot of these old references in, and I do withs GJ would pop back into the forum.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
Watching with interest to see if you can shift enough force to Hokkaido to dislodge him.

I think that ship has sailed....but Japan can bleed him, and then bleed him some more and when not bleeding him, buy time. Easy to say![;)]

There might be a chance to still get troops to blockade the base even if it does fall. We'll see. The movement problem that lost me three days of travel for the majority of troops there will not help though.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]Dec 28, 1944[/font]

---

Daily landings continue at Wakkanai. It seems another Marine division has appeared. He's definitely piling on and it won't be long now I'm thinking.

The troops moving up from Asahikawa get a 3:1 against his blocking armor unit, but somehow can't move it or make it surrender. More time wasted. There is enough in place now though that it'll be vaporized tomorrow.

I stood down sweeps and I think the DS moved back as well, both sides needing to replenish and rest no doubt.
[font="Trebuchet MS"][/font]
[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Dec 28, 1944
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Air attack on TF, near Sapporo at 120,51

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 12 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 11
Ki-45 KAId Nick x 22

Allied aircraft
PBY-5 Catalina x 3

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
PBY-5 Catalina: 1 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 122,50 (near Asahikawa)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 12620 troops, 189 guns, 347 vehicles, Assault Value = 1552

Defending force 1212 troops, 4 guns, 137 vehicles, Assault Value = 30

Japanese adjusted assault: 181

Allied adjusted defense: 59

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 20 (6 destroyed, 14 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 24 (12 destroyed, 12 disabled)

Assaulting units:
4th Tank Division
4th Division
56th Div /3
19th Tank Regiment
25th Tank Regiment
27th Tank Regiment
4th Engineer Co
20th Division
85th Naval Guard Unit
68th Brigade
89th Div /3
20th RF Gun Bn /1
67th Ind. AA Battalion
14th RF Gun (Pack) Battalion
18th RF Gun Bn /1
68th Ind. AA Battalion
17th RF Gun Battalion
3rd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
141st AA Regiment
15th Base Force
3rd Ind. Mtn Gun Rgt /1
3rd Rocket Gun Bn /1
33rd Army /1

Defending units:
711th Tank Battalion

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/color][/font]

The number of troops in the non-base hex south of Wakkanai has steadily grown. He must be finding success with getting them ashore without too much disruption.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert


The number of troops in the non-base hex south of Wakkanai has steadily grown. He must be finding success with getting them ashore without too much disruption.

It is so hard to see what is going on near Wakkanai? You need to replace those wimpy cloud graphics with something better...I dropbboxed you some, it is only two files (you can just unzip right into you witpae folder).

[inqistor]

ORIGINAL: obvert

The troops moving up from Asahikawa get a 3:1 against his blocking armor unit, but somehow can't move it or make it surrender. More time wasted. There is enough in place now though that it'll be vaporized tomorrow.

There is no US Base at Hokkaido, so their every LCU is technically zombie unit, and will not retreat, as there is no supply source. That means, you will probably not pass blocking hex, because you don't have enough fire power, to destroy everything there quick enough.
You should wait, until Wakkanai falls, so blocking units could retreat losing many devices. Just make sure, they will lose several months of squads production. You can either bid for time, or destroy more things, that Allies can replace.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: inqistor

ORIGINAL: obvert

The troops moving up from Asahikawa get a 3:1 against his blocking armor unit, but somehow can't move it or make it surrender. More time wasted. There is enough in place now though that it'll be vaporized tomorrow.

There is no US Base at Hokkaido, so their every LCU is technically zombie unit, and will not retreat, as there is no supply source. That means, you will probably not pass blocking hex, because you don't have enough fire power, to destroy everything there quick enough.
You should wait, until Wakkanai falls, so blocking units could retreat losing many devices. Just make sure, they will lose several months of squads production. You can either bid for time, or destroy more things, that Allies can replace.

Good point!

I would keep up 'rolling assaults' though: attack with half your stack each day so defender morale/fatigue/disruption is as bad as possible. When you have enough superiority in troops that often hastens demise.

The other thing about Wakkanai is he doesn't need to expand from there if your favorable-terrain defense proves too tough. He can use it as a close-in airfield while he invades a nearby base, flanking the defense. Has he planned for that with unit preparations?

[Wuffer]

found something in your AAR, what a gem! )

ORIGINAL: koniu

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

How many fighters do you get from the cost of the Musashi? I´m guessing a lot? [:)]

- Musashi arrive on 1 December 1942. So 359 days of production
- Each day require 233 naval points
- Every naval point cost 3 HI points

So 359x233x3=250941 HI points to produce Musashi

Each Single engine planes cost 36 HI (18 for engine and 18 for airframe)

250941/36= 6970,58 1E planes

I've stopped BB Musashi. [smb=00000622.gif]

[adarbrauner]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert


The number of troops in the non-base hex south of Wakkanai has steadily grown. He must be finding success with getting them ashore without too much disruption.

It is so hard to see what is going on near Wakkanai? You need to replace those wimpy cloud graphics with something better...I dropbboxed you some, it is only two files (you can just unzip right into you witpae folder).

To me too please..

[palioboy2]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: inqistor

ORIGINAL: obvert

The troops moving up from Asahikawa get a 3:1 against his blocking armor unit, but somehow can't move it or make it surrender. More time wasted. There is enough in place now though that it'll be vaporized tomorrow.

There is no US Base at Hokkaido, so their every LCU is technically zombie unit, and will not retreat, as there is no supply source. That means, you will probably not pass blocking hex, because you don't have enough fire power, to destroy everything there quick enough.
You should wait, until Wakkanai falls, so blocking units could retreat losing many devices. Just make sure, they will lose several months of squads production. You can either bid for time, or destroy more things, that Allies can replace.

Good point!

I would keep up 'rolling assaults' though: attack with half your stack each day so defender morale/fatigue/disruption is as bad as possible. When you have enough superiority in troops that often hastens demise.

The other thing about Wakkanai is he doesn't need to expand from there if your favorable-terrain defense proves too tough. He can use it as a close-in airfield while he invades a nearby base, flanking the defense. Has he planned for that with unit preparations?

Dan seems like the type that always has troops preping for all near by possibilities.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert


The number of troops in the non-base hex south of Wakkanai has steadily grown. He must be finding success with getting them ashore without too much disruption.

It is so hard to see what is going on near Wakkanai? You need to replace those wimpy cloud graphics with something better...I dropbboxed you some, it is only two files (you can just unzip right into you witpae folder).

I'll make an easier pic. Sorry about the clouds. I usually leave them off and toggle, but I'l be happy to try the new files too.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: inqistor

ORIGINAL: obvert

The troops moving up from Asahikawa get a 3:1 against his blocking armor unit, but somehow can't move it or make it surrender. More time wasted. There is enough in place now though that it'll be vaporized tomorrow.

There is no US Base at Hokkaido, so their every LCU is technically zombie unit, and will not retreat, as there is no supply source. That means, you will probably not pass blocking hex, because you don't have enough fire power, to destroy everything there quick enough.
You should wait, until Wakkanai falls, so blocking units could retreat losing many devices. Just make sure, they will lose several months of squads production. You can either bid for time, or destroy more things, that Allies can replace.

I don't know what is there yet!! So I can't know if I'll be able to destroy it or not. The number of troops seen by recon has no bearing on whether they are battle ready or not.

It doesn't make sense to wait to attack at any rate, because he'll just move out the troops from Wakkanai, including a lot of armor, very quickly. I'll take my chances on hitting it all as soon as I'm in hex. The main issue is that he can also bombard that hex, so I'll face a lot of action once there.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: inqistor

ORIGINAL: obvert

The troops moving up from Asahikawa get a 3:1 against his blocking armor unit, but somehow can't move it or make it surrender. More time wasted. There is enough in place now though that it'll be vaporized tomorrow.

There is no US Base at Hokkaido, so their every LCU is technically zombie unit, and will not retreat, as there is no supply source. That means, you will probably not pass blocking hex, because you don't have enough fire power, to destroy everything there quick enough.
You should wait, until Wakkanai falls, so blocking units could retreat losing many devices. Just make sure, they will lose several months of squads production. You can either bid for time, or destroy more things, that Allies can replace.

Good point!

I would keep up 'rolling assaults' though: attack with half your stack each day so defender morale/fatigue/disruption is as bad as possible. When you have enough superiority in troops that often hastens demise.

The other thing about Wakkanai is he doesn't need to expand from there if your favorable-terrain defense proves too tough. He can use it as a close-in airfield while he invades a nearby base, flanking the defense. Has he planned for that with unit preparations?

Wakkanai had the least amount of defensive prep on Hokkaido. All other bases are pretty tough. I'll be adding a few more units in to provide a reserve as well, and it's less possible to block reinforcements to the other bases, except Hakodate. I would be surprised, to say the least, if he's planning for that one though.

Northern Honshu bases are also tough, so I've just been thinking that the actual base of Wakkanai doesn't give him too much more than what he has at Toyohara. A few more hexes closer. The depot divisions do give me some troops now for rear area bases as well.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

found something in your AAR, what a gem! )

ORIGINAL: koniu



- Musashi arrive on 1 December 1942. So 359 days of production
- Each day require 233 naval points
- Every naval point cost 3 HI points

So 359x233x3=250941 HI points to produce Musashi

Each Single engine planes cost 36 HI (18 for engine and 18 for airframe)

250941/36= 6970,58 1E planes

I've stopped BB Musashi. [smb=00000622.gif]

I remember this post! I'd forgotten the number though. Good reminder. I'll take those airframes over one BB any day!!

Although the downside is that they're also 6,970 VPs, which is quite a lot more than Musashi so I'd have to sue them wisely. [;)]