Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

1/1/45

Wakkanai: This round also a lopsided Allied win. There are several other smaller rounds to follow, with roughly 1:1 losses, plus at least one in which Japan loses four fighters and the Allies none.

The net effect is that enemy LRCAP is tuckered out and retires, giving Allied bombers a crack at 8th Division, which isn't protected by AA.

[Canoerebel]

1/1/45

Near Wakkanai: 2EB from Toyohara rough up 8th Division. Other, small raids from this base follow, scoring modestly.

[Canoerebel]

1/1/45

Near Wakkanai: The first and largest of the 4EB raids against this division. Here I noticed that most of the enemy squads are destroyed rather than disabled. That's unusual, as typically it takes a lot of disablements before destruction begins to take effect. There's something the matter with this division, but I can't put my finger on it. I don't recall seeing it in combat previously, so it shouldn't be worn out.

Erik has a dilemma here. He knows that I know his LRCAP is vulnerable...and that without it this division is vulnerable. I'll order all-out sweeps and bombing tomorrow. I think he'll elect not to post LRCAP. Instead, he's more likely to withdraw the division or bring in AA. Either course should take at least a few days. Bad weather is his friend.

In the past, Erik has employed attacks against other targets when he felt like a particular situation favored the Allies too much. He may well do the same here.

[Canoerebel]

1/1/45

Near Wakkanai: The Superforts contribute (and once again, B-29-25s are included in the raid - they are supposed to be limited to nighttime action).

[Canoerebel]

1/1/45

Wakkanai: The enemy garrison is weakening. The base might fall on the next attack. Will Erik try to reinforce by sea? I'll configure my defenses as if he will try, but I think the odds are 33% or less.

[Canoerebel]

1/1/45

Air War: The air war has been very tough the past four or five months - at best a 1:1 proposition. It's rare that the Allies achieve a (relatively) lopsided fighter victory, so this was a noteworthy day. Erik's fighters were a mix of first and second tier.

[JohnDillworth]

Where did you lose b17E to flak? Didn’t realize you still had any of those around

[Canoerebel]

Near Pegu. I still have 15 or 20 flying in Burma. That's thanks to Joseph's careful use of his aircraft (and, presumably, Historiker too).

[BBfanboy]

8th Division is showing almost no Support Squads during the bombing, indicating he has brought in about the first third of the division but hasn't yet got all the supporting stuff. That means the combat squads that are disabled and disrupted will have little chance to recover and you will keep getting destroyed squads with your continued attacks.

[Canoerebel]

1/2/45

NoPac: Erik spent an inordinate amount of time with this turn (or so it seems to me). Is this a Japanese attack turn? Before I sent the turn to him yesterday, these were the main things I was looking at:

1. I elected to order another deliberate attack at Wakkanai. The enemy seemed particularly battered yesterday, and the Allied army looks good for at least one more try. I place the odds at about 66% that the Allies will prevail, but I'm concerned that a failure might mean my guys require two or three days of rest.
2. Will Erik try to reinforce Wakkanai today? Done just right, it would spoil the Allied attack today and possibly into the medium term.
3. Allied sweeps and bombers are to again focus on 8th Division, a hex northwest of Bihoro. I don't think Erik will place LRCAP there. I think it's more likely he'll attack Toyohara, Wakkanai, or Shikuka, in that order.

[Canoerebel]

1/2/45

Wakkanai: A tepid bombardment.

The combination of Allied ship bombardments, air strikes, triggering self-destructive Japanese arty bombardments, and Allied deliberate attacks or bombardments, has proven remarkably effective in reducing big enemy fortifications. The ships bombardment results are seldom impressive, but I'm working on the assumption that they inflict enough disruption and supply usage to be worthwhile.

[Canoerebel]

1/2/45

Wakkanai: Erik sends ASW to work on the Allied subs SW of Wakkanai. For a moment, I think, "He must be coming this turn." But then I realize he'd have sent combat TFs against the port to open the turn, in all likelihood. Since BB Missouri TF and the DD TFs on patrol haven't faced opposition, reinforcement by sea isn't likely today and, hopefully, this is the last opportunity.

[Canoerebel]

1/2/45

Wakkanai: Lots of enemy sweeps over the wooded hex south of Wakkanai. I don't have any LRCAP posted over the hex, but some bleedover LRCAP finds its way there.

I think Erik's army might advance into this hex today or tomorrow. 2nd Marine Division should arrive today, reinforcing the good-sized army already in place. I don't think Erik has a chance of taking this hex, especially since he can't bombard by sea without going to lengths he won't usually be willing to go to (this is "my side" of the island, as long as Death Star is anywhere nearby).

[Canoerebel]

1/2/45

Wakkanai: A large enemy raid inbound from Ominato finds no CAP over Wakkanai (the P-38 squadron flying LRCAP over the woods hex was actually posted over Wakkanai, but got tuckered out by all that fighting).

For the past three turns, I've basically withdrawn all LRCAP from Wakkanai, hoping to conserve my fighter corps, knowing that Erik is reluctant (and fairly unsuccessful) in trying to hit DD TFs.

I have posted about six DD TFs here as the first line of defense against any enemy reinforcement effort. In addition, at leat one cruier TF reports to the base during a turn, retiring during the turn to Tohohara. And the bombardment TFs also come in each turn.

My priority here is to prevent reinforcement by sea without risking too much. I know Wakkanai will fall soon, meaning I won't have to rely on LRCAP any longer (LRCAP has a hard time vs. sweeps, for both sides, in this game).

This turns out to be one of about ten morning and afternoon strikes aimed at Allied shipping. The net result is that Erik sinks a handful of DDs and a couple of AMs. He loses a handful (maybe a bit more) of aircraft.

If he has it timed right, he might be able to slip a reinforcment TF in during the evening phase. My DDs will be tuckered out and my cruisers and bombardment TF have alreayd come and gone. All 2EB at Toyohara are set to naval strike range 3, to cover the hex, but they won't have much in the way of escorts.

[Canoerebel]

1/2/45

Wakkanai: Fierce and sustained aerial attack against Allied DDs (and other ships) with mixed results. I lost some useful ships, but the DDs prove pretty elusive. If my guys don't take Wakkanai today, it's going to be hard to figure out how to defend the base properly tomorrow. Erik might take heart from these results and order that much-anticipated seaborne reinforcement.

[Canoerebel]

1/2/45

Wakkanai: The Allies take this important base on a 4:1 attack that overcomes the remaining two forts. That eliminates the issue of trying to protect against enemy seaborne invasion.

I don't know if Erik was planning to reinforce by sea, but I think he might've been, given today's massed air attack and his ASW working against my subs.

Erik mightn't have even considered such, given Death Star. Or he might've eliminated the possibility after the naval battle four or five days back. I was right in predicting that he wouldn't be able to reinforce by land before the base fell, which is what I was alluding to when I responded to his concerns about the movement hiccup that had slowed his guys on the march from Sapporo.

Seizing Wakkanai creates opportunities and problems. I won't go into the former, at this point. As for the latter, now I have to defend the place and provide for my army in the woods hex. Some of my army will switch prep to other targets. Sooner or later, transports will pick them up. But for the short term, I'll leave them in place and measure what Erik seems to be planning in the way of a coutnerattack or, more likely, a blocking position.

He'll be worried about me landing a huge army for an overland campaign, taking advantage of the fact that I don't need prep. But I'm not going to do that. I don't want to get involved in a stalemate campaign in the woods, preferring instead to maintain the mobility of ampbhious ops.

[Canoerebel]

1/2/45

Air Losses: Erik's strike aircraft performed pretty well in hitting nimble DDs. The cost paid was moderate.

[Canoerebel]

1/2/45

Ship Losses: I lose four DDs and two AM. There's a possibility more damaged DDs will sink, though I haven't checked the TFs yet.

All-in-all, the cost was worth it, since Wakkanai fell today. For days, DD TFs have been tasked with guarding Wakkanai against seaborne reinforcement without the benefit of meaningful CAP. That mission is now concluded.

[Anachro]

Sad to see the USS Cassin Young fall [:(]

[Canoerebel]

1/2/45

Face-Off in the Woods Hex: My guys are there to serve as a blocking force. They won't attack. Will Erik's force?