Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

1/2/45

Adak: Here are some of the major support ships at Adak, including ARD and AR. Adak is a level 8 port with 260 naval support, so it's a good triage station.

But Shikuka is far better at it - level 9 port with 1145 Naval Support and five big ARs. It doesn't have an ARD yet, for obvious reasons. But two ARDs are inbound from Pearl to the western Aleutians. I'll try to get them to Shikuka when the circumstances seem to allow the move.

[Canoerebel]

1/3/45

NoPac: With Wakkanai's fall, this turn was a particularly hard one to plan for. I started with two main ideas:
1. Sweeps and strategic bombing of Kushiro resources. Enemy fighter numbers have been low there since the start of the Wakkanai invasion. I figured that would continue, as Erik would likely focus on Wakkanai and the woods hex today.
2. I feel like it's too soon and too "fluid" to withdraw Death Star to Shikuka, though that must happen soon. The first idea that came to mind: post DS at the woods hex, covering bombardment TFs and (hopefully) handling any enemy sweeps and bombing strikes.

After coming up with that plan, I next measured those two ideas against what Erik was most likely to do. I felt like an all-out air attack (sweeps and bombing) against the Allied troops in the woods hex was the most likely scenario.

I didn't like th idea of Death Star fighters facing 500 or more enemy fighters, so I reluctantly scrubbed this part of the plan.

The next idea was to post DS at the woods hex NW of Bihoro, where 8th Division is located. I felt like it was unlikely to improbably that Erik would commit his air force agains this hex. DS's presence would also cover the host of 2EB and 1EB from Toyohara and Shikuka ordered to hit 8th Division.

I also felt like this move would be unexpected and therefore probably not planned for. There would be a possibility that DS would come within range of enemy strike aircraft. DS CAP would probably chew up any inbound strikes, since (I felt) many fighters would be committed to Wakkanai and/or the woods hex.

[Canoerebel]

1/3/45

Hokkaido: This is an interesting screen. I think this is a two DD-TF bombardment TF. I wanted to see if I could orchestrate bombardment of a non-base hex, which can be tricky.

[Canoerebel]

1/3/45

Hokkaido: During the morning phase, a total of 690 enemy fighters sweep Hokkaido and the woods hex. No Allied CAP posted at either location.

I don't want Death Star CAP to face such an onslaught, but neither do I wish to cede control of the area to Erik. I have some thinking to do.

[Canoerebel]

1/3/45

Spotted Enemy Carriers: Is this Mini DS (lately posted near Ominato) heading SE, or is this a new carrier force moving NW to the Hokkaido theater?

[Canoerebel]

1/3/45

Kushiro: Weather prevented morning ops against Kushiro, but clears for the afternoon. I am anxious to see if Allied sweepers can score well against the anticipated modest CAP, and if the 4EB can score well in daylight raid at 10k, targeting Resources.

[Canoerebel]

1/3/45

Kushiro:

[Canoerebel]

1/3/45

Kushiro: These two sweeps tucker out the enemy CAP. The bombers coming in won't face opposition.

The results of these sweeps aren't as encouraging as you'd think. These are second tier IJ fighters against first tier Allied fighters with good pilots.

[Canoerebel]

1/3/45

Kushiro: Oops, I forgot about this final sweep. This one is encouraging, because usually the Hellcats don't perform well in this role.

Next come the bombers.

[Canoerebel]

1/3/45

Hokkaido: First comes 2EB and 1EB from Toyohara against 8th Division. Damage inflicted is slight, but I wonder if this is a fragment that has now evaporated (considering what happened during yesterday's raids).

Erik gets a good look at Death Star CAP, but this should only be a fraction. In any event, DS definitely won't remain here tomorrow.

[Canoerebel]

1/3/45

Kushiro: With enemy CAP out of the way, and apparently weak flak, Allied 4EB score well.

The future of Allied strategic bombing against Japan probably looks much like this - targeting bases that are proximate enough for Allied sweeps followed by well-escorted bombers.

Kushiro is just about done as a target - it's been heavily targeted. Sapporo is an obvious target but is protected by uber CAP.

For now, strategic bombing will be infrequent. But by March or April, the Allies should be in a position to hit Honshu targets efficiently.

[Canoerebel]

1/3/45

Hokkaido: Unescorted SBDs boldly raid Sapporo, to their sorrow. Enemy CAP is fairly light. It won't be tomorrow.

[Canoerebel]

1/3/45

Woods Hex: Probing IJ bombardment. I don't think Erik has nearly enough to win a battle here, but another US infantry division, anti-tank battalion, and two arty units are inbound from Wakkanai, probably two days out.

[Canoerebel]

1/3/45

Wakkanai: Most Allied infantry and armor rested today, so this is good work reducing the tired enemy troops.

[Canoerebel]

1/3/45

Air Losses: Allied sweeps do well. No Liberators or Superforts were lost today. Less than 100 resource points were damaged, which is disappointing.

This is the combination the Allies will use once the strategic bombing campaign commences.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

1/3/45

Hokkaido: This is an interesting screen. I think this is a two DD-TF bombardment TF. I wanted to see if I could orchestrate bombardment of a non-base hex, which can be tricky.

I think this means the DDs were set to bombard but did not have a good enough DL to target the LCUs, so nothing happened.

[Squamry]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The future of Allied strategic bombing against Japan probably looks much like this - targeting bases that are proximate enough for Allied sweeps followed by well-escorted bombers.

Is Sapporo in that list of targets? It's a major engine production base. It may be worth a few exploratory CL/CA bombardments and DMS sweeps to see what defences are there. If Erik believes you would do major Bombardments he may be reluctant to put LBA there and have to rely on LRCAP.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
I think this means the DDs were set to bombard but did not have a good enough DL to target the LCUs, so nothing happened.

Thanks. That's a helpful tip.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Squamry

Is Sapporo in that list of targets? It's a major engine production base. It may be worth a few exploratory CL/CA bombardments and DMS sweeps to see what defences are there. If Erik believes you would do major Bombardments he may be reluctant to put LBA there and have to rely on LRCAP.

Sapporo is armed to the teeth (see image in next post). There won't be any pussyfooting around, trying to figure out if Erik has his defenses prepared. He does.

To answer your fikrst question, Sapporo is definitely on the list of strategic targets. First, though, I have to reduce his fighter corps appreciably. That may be Job 1 over the next few weeks.

[Canoerebel]

1/4/45

NoPac: Wakkanai having fallen, there are several pressing missions for the Allies, but they are somewhat incompatible. There's also the possibility that Erik will temporarily take the initiative, trying to overwhelm the Allies at a single point (northern Hokkaido). If that should happen, all other Allied missions get put aside to deal with the emergency.

Here's what going on:

1. Proceeding with the next invasion is intriguing but problematic. The units are dispersed. Most are at Shikuka, which is good, but some are at Uruppu-Jima and a few are at Wakkanai. So the marshalling of units will take a few days. More significantly, it may not be wise to begin a new op while Wakkanai is still in a state of flux. Erik may pull out all stops to attack, in which case the Allies may have to apply everything to defeat the attack. It's somewhat more likely that Erik won't attack. I'll probably know in a few days.

2. There are a host of empties and damaged ships at Shikuka ready to return to West Coast. Death Star definitely needs to escort them to some point east of the Kuriles - perhaps further, if KB isn't accounted for. With Wakkanai still a potential cauldron, DS can't be spared to steam four or five days east at this time. Waiting at least a few days is necessary.