Notes from a Small Island

[HansBolter]

Have you given your carriers their last AA upgrades?

Are you planning on giving your destroyers their last AA upgrades in April and May?

Given your concern over maintaining a deterrent to major anti-naval air raids I would think these would be priorities.

Or do you eschew the last upgrades because you are heavily prosecuting the end of the war and can't afford the down time?

The Sumner class destroyers, which enter with a 717 AA rating upgrade to 851 and the Fletchers upgrade from 580-something to around 790-something IIRC.

I really like the Sumners. They don't have any armor like the Fletchers and are a little slower, but have (6) five inch guns to the Fletcher's 5 and carry more AA armament.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Only a player can get jazzed about the minutiae of a major logistical undertaking.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Have you given your carriers their last AA upgrades?

Are you planning on giving your destroyers their last AA upgrades in April and May?

Given your concern over maintaining a deterrent to major anti-naval air raids I would think these would be priorities.

Or do you eschew the last upgrades because you are heavily prosecuting the end of the war and can't afford the down time?

The Sumner class destroyers, which enter with a 717 AA rating upgrade to 851 and the Fletchers upgrade from 580-something to around 790-something IIRC.

I really like the Sumners. They don't have any armor like the Fletchers and are a little slower, but have (6) five inch guns to the Fletcher's 5 and carry more AA armament.

Any upgrades that require a shipyard (size 5 or more) aren't likely to get done unless and until I take Sapporo. The campaigining will be nonstop beginning early February, so there's no time to send ships to Prince Rupert (excepting those going for repairs, in which event they'll upgrade, too, if eligible).

I'm awfully glad the CVEs got their 9/1/44 upgrades, and I have hopes other ships will be able to upgrade sooner or later.

[Canoerebel]

1/18/45

SigInt: What I think this tidbit means: The Allies stole a march on Japan in the Wakkanai campaign - landing in non-base hexes to disrupt enemy reinforcement efforts. It worked.

Hokkaido is an obvious next target after the Kuriles campaigns, so Erik is taking precautions there. He's also taking them elsewhere, as this graphic shows.

Or this could be the product of a fevered imagination - perhaps IJA 125th Division is moving from one base to another, not taking position in a non-base hex.

[Canoerebel]

1/19/45

NoPac: A busy map, but it's almost all logistics and prep. Fascinating to me, dull to the Peanut Gallery.

[Canoerebel]

1/19/45

Target Prep: The next invasion will take place at Shimishura Jima in about ten days or so. All units are 100% prepped.

What I'm really waiting for, though, is prep for the target that will follow Shimishura. This graphic shows the units at Shikuka prepping for that target. The percentages range from 20s to about 50. But the Amphib Force HQ at 48% is the real key. I probably won't press the trigger until that unit reachs about 70% or so, which may be about three weeks away.

[Canoerebel]

1/19/45

BB Massachusetts: This graphic is posted in case Joseph is still reading.

When I stepped in for him March 1, 1944, Massachusetts had just been involved in action and had taken moderately heavy damage near New Guinea.

She limped to Oz and holed up there for awhile, as Erik had many subs in SWPac and SoPac. Over the ensuing months, as I shifted everything to NoPac, clearing the area, Erik gradually withdrew all his subs.

Then Massachusetts made the agonizingly slow journey to Pearl. Once she made it, I considered sending her on to West Coast but decided to err on the side of safety. Repairs would take longer, but at least she wouldn't run afoul of a sub.

Repairs were set at about 200+ days. That suited me, as she kind of served as a "guaranteed reserve" - a ship that would be ready later in the event a calamity took place in NoPac.

She's about ready now. She'll team up with CA Pittsburg, some good DDs, and possibly two fast CVs. I'm not yet sure of that TFs duty station. There are three possibilities, ranging from reinforcing NoPac, which is where the war shall be won, to far, far away, where an important assist to the war effort will take place in the summer months.

[Canoerebel]

1/19/45

Kuriles Garrisons: Erik has been withdrawing his Kuriles garrisons for months. The only base that remains strongly defended is Shasukotan (a hex SW of Onnekotan).

With rare exceptions, I haven't contested the withdrawal because its actually beneficial. I know why Erik is doing it - the islands are becoming more and more isolated, more and more difficult to supply, and the garrisons haven't been able to stand against concentrated Allied assaults. He saves points that I'd otherwise accrue in destroying his units, and he can beef up his Home Islands garrisons.

But he has inadvertendly expedited Allied plans by two months or more. I had allowed for ops in the Kuriles to last well into the spring months. No longer. Once the drawdown became clear a few months ago, many units began prepping for future ops. The first will commence in early February rather than in May, as originally planned.

In addition to daily recon of the Kuriles, bases on Hokkaido and northern Honshu are also under surveillance.

Of course, there's a chance that this could turn against me in unexpected ways. Weird things happen. For instance, on November 1, when Cold Zone effects set in, I thought it was a serious setback for the Allies. I had armies prepped for the northern Kuriles but no longer felt confident in proceeding. So I shifted the targets to Uruppu, Wakkanai and Etorofu, all of which turned out well. Sometimes seemingly bad things turn out good and sometimes seemingly good things may turn bad.

[Canoerebel]

1/20/45

Etorofu: There were a few clashes here and there today but for the most part this map is about repositioning of forces in preparation for what's to come.

I'm still a bit concerned about the possibility of enemy raiders in NoPac.

Death Star and the ingressing herd didn't move again today, though I think I know why.

I've tweaked the Allied offensive plans, which will begin with an amphibious landing that should take place within four of five days of the date that DS gets off its butt and decides to start moving again. I think the plan is a good one.

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Sometimes seemingly bad things turn out good and sometimes seemingly good things may turn bad.

Some of the worst things that happened in my life turned out, in the long run, to be a course changer for some of the best things in my life.

An incident in government employ, sending me to college.

An idjit college prof killing my education, leading me to drive for a living.

Driving short haul for a living, leading to a brief stint in CART racing.

A spectacular accident in CART, putting me out of a job racing and back to working ( hey, it was only a half million for that ride!!).

Having kids try to steal my rig, and in the process breaking my back & forcing my employer to either disable me, or put me to work in the corporate office doing simple computer functions (sorta like watching paint dry).

Being bored outta my mind, teaching myself about data processing, computers, networking etc. (and proving the aforementioned prof to be the idjit I thought he was).

Getting married, but then finding out having a son was the best thing that ever happened to me.

I can't wait to see how much better things will get

[JohnDillworth]

Those ARD's are like gold. That's quite a risk running those naked. I know, they move slow, but think how valuable they will be once you get them in theater. can you spare a bunch of CVE's?

[Canoerebel]

Proverbs 16:9 speaks to that phenomenon pretty well: "A man plans his course, but the Lord orders his steps."

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
Those ARD's are like gold. That's quite a risk running those naked. I know, they move slow, but think how valuable they will be once you get them in theater. can you spare a bunch of CVE's?

Weighing all the data, I feel better about steaming them in "naked" than I do about trying to give them a big escort. I'm pretty sure Erik won't catch wind of them (he hasn't had nav search up in quite some time) and Death Star won't be too far away and can likely provide some LRCAP, if needed. I have two other ARDs at Adak, so the cubbard won't be bare should something untoward happen.

[Canoerebel]

1/20/45

Roving IJN TF: I re-watched the "movie" to get a better idea of where that Japanese TF was sighted. Here it is, 10 hexes SE of the N in Japan. That's 25 hexes SW of the cripples TF, so it's safe from molestation even in the unlikely event Erik chose the right course and used flank speed.

I don't know what that TF is or where it's going, but I'll bear in mind the possibility of a raid into the Gulf of Alaska.

How wonderful this game is that a player is willing to re-watch the entire movie to glean a small detail like this....and yet how tedious this game can be....at the same time!

[BillBrown]

I have been experimenting with capturing the entire combat replay using a digital video recorder. That way I can fast advance to a point to try and see
details like this.

[Canoerebel]

This sighting was particularly elusive. It wasn't a nav search sighting. The icon wasn't included in the new turn map. It was, a think, just an anomaly of the AI during the movie, accidentally depicting a TF even though I had no detection on it, etc. The "sighting" lasted for all of a half second before the screen moved to another sector. Elusive or not, it was good information to get. I felt like Erik might have something out here, but this is too far from the egressing herd to be a concern.

[BBfanboy]

Looks like the sub in the next hex might have got a Sigint hit on the IJN TF - too low a DL to put an icon on the map but perhaps a mention in the Sigint report?

[CaptBeefheart]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A busy map, but it's almost all logistics and prep. Fascinating to me, dull to the Peanut Gallery.

I don't think too many of us would be playing this game if we didn't like "logistics and prep."

Regarding those DD upgrades, note that the final USN DD upgrades usually take out half or all remaining torpedoes. One thing to consider before going ahead is whether the IJN can still pack a punch on the surface.

Cheers,
CB

[Canoerebel]

I think most of us enjoy dealing with logistics in positive ways. I don't think many AAR readers enjoying reading about logistics, though. I think the Peanut Gallery wants action, mayhem, bloodshed.

Thanks for the tip about the USN DDs. That's good info.

The Kaigun is much weaker now but still a threat. But the air threat is great, so I'll likely err on the side of AA when upgrades are available.

[Canoerebel]

1/21/45 and 1/22/45

A rare post covering multiple turns.

NoPac: In all, Death Star was frozen into position for three days, including the 21st. On that turn, I noticed that the support TFs that I think were the issue showed only about 550 ops points expended and that all combat ships and carriers had fully replenished ammo and sorties. Still, three days frozen in position was long enough, so I detached the support TFs. They and DS were to head northwest to Ketoi.

Either because of the splitting or because the replenishment mission were completed, DS finally got moving again on the 22nd. I think this is the first turn in about five or six days that Erik got detection.

The three days of immobility were fine, as DS wasn't going anywhere in particular anyhow. The invasion of Shimishura is set to take place soon, but it doesn't matter whether it commenced two days back or four days ahead, since the real determining factor right now is prep time for the troops prepping for the big op that will follow Shimishura. Those units range from the 20s to the 60s now, and need at least two weeks, perhaps four, before they'll be ready to go.

It's possible further Kuriles invasions will follow Shimishura, assuming the Cold Zone effects prove acceptable and assuming Erik continues to withdraw his garrisons, as he appears to be doing.