Notes from a Small Island

[jwolf]

I wonder if Shikuka has more supply than Japan.

[Canoerebel]

1/30/45

NoPac: Tomorrow is a critical day. Death Star will move further west to provide protection for assault shipping moving to Etorofu to extract major units.

There is some risk here. Erik had another good day with fighters. He's growing bolder and more confident. There is a chance he could try something major tomorrow. While trying to cover all contingencies, my main concern is DS and the ships at Etorofu. My best guess is that he won't try for an all-out attack there - not quite yet. I think he's more likely to look for a likely target to overwhelm. Toyohara, with 120 fighters, is my guess.

So I dispersed Toyohara's fighters - moving most to Etorofu and Uruppu to bolster protection there. I moved the remaining 2EB to Shikuka.

I need one or two more turns to extract my units. Then I can begin shifting from a largely defensive posture to a more aggressive offensive posture.

Enemy dispositions continues to be favorable for "the next big thing." The timetable remains the same, with the possibility of expediting, if necessary, once the Etorofu units are extracted. Alot is gonna happen in about ten days.

In the meantime, though, how bold will Erik get?

[Canoerebel]

1/31/45 and 2/1/45

NoPac: The Japanese caved at Shimishura today, far sooner than expected. This is a good thing but means I'll have to tinker a bit with the Allied "activity" meant to give Erik something to pay attention to.

The critical loading of units at Etorofu continues without opposition. I hope this will wrap up tomorrow. If it doesn't, only mechanical support will be left, so I'll probably order the TFs to move out anyhow. It's time to get them back to Shikuka.

At that point, a quick mission to retrieve units at Wakkanai will take place.

Then it will be time for "the next big thing."

[Lecivius]

I am really curious as to if I have sleuthed the "Next Big Thing". I am really enjoying this.

[CaptBeefheart]

I'm thinking it's Korea.

Cheers,
CB

[tolsdorff]

Judging by the prep table a couple of posts back, a lot of unit are prepping for a base with a name 6 or less characters long.

I am just wildly guessing it's going to be Sendai. That would be in CR's spirit and if succesful a crushing blow to the Japanese. The approach to Korea seems somewhat vulnerable compared to the approach to the japanese east coast.

[paullus99]

Well, it is open terrain & close enough to support with those "millions" of points in supply which CR has been shuttling in.

It certainly would also be the largest, most intensive & probably final battle of the war. Obvert would have no choice to commit everything in its defense & CR brings the Kitchen Sink as well.

It would be incredibly bloody, but it should end things on a bang....if that's where he's going.

[Canoerebel]

2/2/45

NoPac: It's fun reading your guesses and analysis. Some good thinking there. It's also fun monitoring Erik's thinking, as best I can cobble together from SigInt, garrison levels, movement dots, and the other little things that help paint a picture. He's thinking. He's making logical deductions. He has a problem, I believe.

The Next Big Thing will be a massive attack. I think Erik has to respond violently. There is a chance he will prevail, primarily because of his potent air force. There is a chance he'll fail, primarily because they Allies are very strong and well-organized, I think. If Erik loses (or somehow fails to contest strongly) this next move, it'll be fatal to his chances. I now have the base of operations and force allocation to prosecute the war non-stop in and around his heartland. There shouldn't be any further major downtimes.

[Mike Solli]

Instead of calling your next operation "the next big thing", why not give it an operation codename? Something like Operation Big Thang?

[Canoerebel]

I've always used code names. Readers of my last AAR got endless versions of circus and fair names: Big Tent, Third Ring, Strong Man, Carrousel, etc. etc. etc.

Somehow, I didn't feel right using code names in this game, since I stepped in on March 1, 1944, for Joseph, who had previously stepped in for Historiker. Perhaps Joseph's choice of names for carrier suppressed any inclination to be creative.

[Canoerebel]

2/2/45

Next Big Thing Units at Wakkanai: These guys have the prep levels needed to go into harm's way.

[Canoerebel]

2/2/45

Next Big Thing Units at Shikuka: 1st Cav. Division prep is illustrative of the reason more prep time is useful; III Amphib Force HQ prep is illustrative of why I will pull the trigger ASAP, if development warrant.

[Canoerebel]

In addition to the three divisions in the prior posts, other divisions and preps (these units are mostly aboard ship returning to Shikuka to combat load):

25th - 58%
96th - 34%
38th - 53%
37th - 43%
31st - 41%
43rd - 53%

That's nine entire divisions (not eight, as I had stated above). You can see that another six or eight days of prep would get a couple more units over 50%, but speed will probably outweigh that consideration.

[Canoerebel]

The command HQ is 100% prepped for the target. The lower HQs are low-prepped and won't be of much help.

[Canoerebel]

Well, that last post wasn't quite right. Tenth Army HQ is 46% prepped, which may help. But III Amphib Corps is 0%. That's not going to help. (Why, you ask, is it 0%? Well, on the day I switched it's prep at Pearl Harbor many, many moons ago, it embarked on transports to come to the scene. But it's group of transports got hung up several times and is still at sea with Death Star. It's been prepping for perhaps 30-40 days. A failure, but one I can excuse because there's so much going on that things like this will usually happen.)

[Lokasenna]

GetAssista did some testing on the presence of HQs before.

Just having them in the hex (or within range I imagine) will help. Yours are redundant, assuming Tenth Army HQ is one of the non-command HQs.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's fun reading your guesses and analysis. Some good thinking there. It's also fun monitoring Erik's thinking, as best I can cobble together from SigInt, garrison levels, movement dots, and the other little things that help paint a picture. He's thinking. He's making logical deductions. He has a problem, I believe.

His problem is that it's 1945 and he doesn't have much of a fleet anymore because he just used it. [;)]


I'll put my nonexistent chips on Genzan.

I don't think you'd do Sendai or Iwaki, even though it's open terrain, simply because the risk is too great given that Erik still has strong air forces. Korea, on the other hand, is harder for him to interdict both by sea (there are no good ports on the north side of Japan, really, so presumably his navy is on the south side which will take an additional day or two of transit) and by air (fewer interlocking high-level airfields).

Rashin, the base right next to Russia, doesn't really get you much. Neither does Kanko.

Genzan, on the other hand, opens up splitting the Korean peninsula in a matter of days if it's weakly-held. At minimum, you may end up triggering the Soviets early or keeping that possibility in his mind - especially if you can land paratroops to help block the rails from China and prevent AV from moving into the garrison area, such as at Jehol or points west.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's fun reading your guesses and analysis. Some good thinking there. It's also fun monitoring Erik's thinking, as best I can cobble together from SigInt, garrison levels, movement dots, and the other little things that help paint a picture. He's thinking. He's making logical deductions. He has a problem, I believe.

His problem is that it's 1945 and he doesn't have much of a fleet anymore because he just used it. [;)]


I'll put my nonexistent chips on Genzan.

I don't think you'd do Sendai or Iwaki, even though it's open terrain, simply because the risk is too great given that Erik still has strong air forces. Korea, on the other hand, is harder for him to interdict both by sea (there are no good ports on the north side of Japan, really, so presumably his navy is on the south side which will take an additional day or two of transit) and by air (fewer interlocking high-level airfields).

Rashin, the base right next to Russia, doesn't really get you much. Neither does Kanko.

Genzan, on the other hand, opens up splitting the Korean peninsula in a matter of days if it's weakly-held. At minimum, you may end up triggering the Soviets early or keeping that possibility in his mind - especially if you can land paratroops to help block the rails from China and prevent AV from moving into the garrison area, such as at Jehol or points west.

My cyber-chips are on Akita and Hachinohe, to sever the end of Honshu from the rest and isolate all the troops at Aomori, Ominato and on Hokkaido.

[Lokasenna]

Ah, I forgot Akita had a name short enough. That's also a possibility.

I might be on that wagon before Genzan, but since I said Genzan I'll stay there.

[Canoerebel]

Genzan and Kanko were two of the original targets to follow the invasion of Sikhalin Island. It seems crazy now (and probably seemed crazy to all of you then) that I prepped armies for Korea. I really thought the invasion might be so successful that I might need to be prepared to leap forward quickly. That was pure crazy sauce. It's good to think and plan for success, but it's better if that's built on a realistic understanding of the initial assault. I wish I'd prepped those units for the Kuriles instead of Korea.