The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

[JohnDillworth]

Are you supplies, fuel and oil still flowing in from the DEI? Any serious attempts to challenge your supply routes? He may have bombers but only a finite number (fighters too for that matter). With you production unimpeded I think you can out produce him in fighters for a long time to come. All bets are off when the stuff from Europe starts to show up but that is many months away.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Are you supplies, fuel and oil still flowing in from the DEI? Any serious attempts to challenge your supply routes? He may have bombers but only a finite number (fighters too for that matter). With you production unimpeded I think you can out produce him in fighters for a long time to come. All bets are off when the stuff from Europe starts to show up but that is many months away.

If I make it to the B-17G influx I'll be very happy with that result!!

Everything is still coming in from the DEI. I haven't brought much supply back and some of it has been slowly trickling to Burma, and there isn't a lot of surplus there. He's been getting better and better sub results, but all fuel centres are undamaged and regular transits are being made with full loads to the HI.

The A7M Sam just (finally) began production, as did the Ki-100-II, which will bring the total fighter production to ~1,500/month. That is a lot (for me anyway).

I'm also making around 150 FB to use for rear CAP and training groups, and maybe later as kamis. I can convert 2E bomber groups for some PP so this option has been really useful to get more groups training fighter pilots and keeping top 1E fighter groups on the front lines.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Judging by the results I've had with the Ki-83, I think your previous results with it were maybe anomalous.

I hope so!

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]Jan 31 - February 1, 1945[/font]

---

Not much happening on the last day of January. Or on the first of February. Shimushiri-Jima falls as expected.

The Sam begins production at 150/month!! It'll take a bit of time to get the KB filled out, unfortunately. I don't think I'll increase production due to engine constraints. I'm already strapped for Ha-43 engines. Pools are at 350 and going down a few per turn, but I'm repairing factories at 3/day, so should be getting a surplus after a few weeks even with the addition of the Sam.

Next month the long range Patsy bomber comes online. Not sure if I'll be able to make use of them or not, but they can be kamis if nothing else, and extra long range is a good thing. The Ki-102a Randy fighter is also set to come in 3/45. That will provide another high altitude plane of high CAP/SWEEP missions, but only at 30/month.

After that the only other planes that will be developed are the J7W Shiden, which I'm researching at 60/month, and the Ki-102c Randy NF. Both should arrive sometime around 5/45.The J7M will be the fastest fighter in the arsenal, but it's still service 3 and there won't be a lot of them.
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 30, 1945
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TF 527 encounters mine field at Bihoro (123,51)

Allied Ships
SS Sea Owl, Mine hits 1

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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Feb 1, 1945
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Ground combat at Shimushiri-jima (132,51)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 49226 troops, 635 guns, 939 vehicles, Assault Value = 1481

Defending force 17496 troops, 137 guns, 153 vehicles, Assault Value = 218

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 3

Allied adjusted assault: 1645

Japanese adjusted defense: 241

Allied assault odds: 6 to 1 (fort level 3)

Allied forces CAPTURE Shimushiri-jima !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2247 casualties reported
Squads: 24 destroyed, 103 disabled
Non Combat: 86 destroyed, 39 disabled
Engineers: 115 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 55 (44 destroyed, 11 disabled)
Vehicles lost 91 (91 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
442 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 38 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 24 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Guns lost 24 (2 destroyed, 22 disabled)
Vehicles lost 30 (8 destroyed, 22 disabled)

Assaulting units:
706th Tank Battalion
194th Tank Battalion
766th Tank Battalion
4th Marine Division
8th Australian Division
3rd Australian Division
4th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
10th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
2nd Medium Regiment

Defending units:
10th Ind.Infantry Brigade
27th Electric Engineer Regiment
12th Ind.Mixed Regiment
46th Div /1
4th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
2nd Mortar Battalion
9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
49th Const Co
25th Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
217th Naval Construction Battalion
205th Naval Construction Battalion
6th Base Force

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[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]Feb 2-3, 1945[/font]

---

Not much happening on the 2nd, but on the 3rd I sent the dogs in again to the Kuriles. Another good haul of USN planes, with the early George sweep doing surprisingly well. The first sweep is usually the worst, hitting the fresh CAP perfectly positioned by radar and in good numbers. This time the tables were turned, and even though this was a mid-level sweep, the Georges got to work and crushed lower Hellcats before fighting off the diving Corsairs from above. Something to plan with again.

On the day the sweepers get about 3:1, which is surprising, but maybe was helped by severe storms and little radar warning this time. It looks like the loading may be finished as troops have left Uruppa and the fleets look to have moved back. This seems like the beginning of a next move, and probably not just another Kuriles island. I'll keep trying to chip the corners off before the main thrust begins.
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Feb 2, 1945
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Ground combat at Shimushiri-jima (132,51)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 5784 troops, 74 guns, 510 vehicles, Assault Value = 1441

Defending force 13903 troops, 105 guns, 47 vehicles, Assault Value = 85

Allied adjusted assault: 114

Japanese adjusted defense: 109

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
783 casualties reported
Squads: 39 destroyed, 22 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Vehicles lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 9 (1 destroyed, 8 disabled)

Assaulting units:
194th Tank Battalion
706th Tank Battalion
4th Marine Division
8th Australian Division
766th Tank Battalion
3rd Australian Division
4th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
10th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
2nd Medium Regiment

Defending units:
10th Ind.Infantry Brigade
12th Ind.Mixed Regiment
46th Div /1
217th Naval Construction Battalion
4th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
2nd Mortar Battalion
49th Const Co
205th Naval Construction Battalion
27th Electric Engineer Regiment
25th Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
6th Base Force

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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Feb 3, 1945
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Morning Air attack on Uruppu-jima , at 130,52

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 27,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K5-J George x 45

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 31
F4U-1D Corsair x 12
F4U-1A Corsair x 18
F6F-3 Hellcat x 32
F6F-5 Hellcat x 14

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K5-J George: 5 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Corsair II: 1 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 3 destroyed
F4U-1A Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 14 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 2 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
15 x N1K5-J George sweeping at 25000 feet

CAP engaged:
VF-14 with F6F-3 Hellcat (4 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(8 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 4 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 13000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 13000.
Raid is overhead
VF-18 with F6F-3 Hellcat (8 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(15 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 7 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 2 minutes
VF-80 with F6F-5 Hellcat (8 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(14 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 4 being recalled, 2 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 42 minutes
VF-26 with F6F-3 Hellcat (2 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(9 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
2 plane(s) intercepting now.
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 7 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 2 minutes
VF-11 with F4U-1A Corsair (0 airborne, 9 on standby, 5 scrambling)
4 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 36900 , scrambling fighters to 36000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 22 minutes
No.1830 Sqn FAA with Corsair II (0 airborne, 15 on standby, 9 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 36900 , scrambling fighters between 36000 and 36900.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 34 minutes
No.19 Sqn RNZAF with F4U-1D Corsair (0 airborne, 6 on standby, 4 scrambling)
2 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 20 minutes

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Morning Air attack on Uruppu-jima , at 130,52

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 26 NM, estimated altitude 44,010 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 19

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 26
F4U-1D Corsair x 2
F4U-1A Corsair x 16
F6F-3 Hellcat x 13
F6F-5 Hellcat x 11

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1A Corsair: 4 destroyed

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Morning Air attack on Uruppu-jima , at 130,52

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 14 NM, estimated altitude 43,530 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 23

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 21
F4U-1D Corsair x 2
F4U-1A Corsair x 9
F6F-3 Hellcat x 11
F6F-5 Hellcat x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Corsair II: 2 destroyed
F4U-1A Corsair: 2 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 3 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 3 destroyed

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Morning Air attack on Uruppu-jima , at 130,52

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 22 NM, estimated altitude 43,530 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 40

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 13
F4U-1D Corsair x 2
F4U-1A Corsair x 4
F6F-3 Hellcat x 4
F6F-5 Hellcat x 2

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Corsair II: 6 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed
F4U-1A Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
31 x Ki-83 sweeping at 41530 feet

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Morning Air attack on Uruppu-jima , at 130,52

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 46 NM, estimated altitude 47,530 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 44

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 1
F4U-1A Corsair x 1
F6F-3 Hellcat x 1

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Corsair II: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
44 x Ki-83 sweeping at 41530 feet

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[obvert]

Fighter production and pools. I'm starting to get a little bit of a cushion again as new production kicks in. I'm looking forward to getting more groups upgraded to late war models. Some Nick Ki-45 Ia and Randy Ki-102b also still being produced.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]Feb 4, 1945[/font]

---

There are an increasing number of small ships and subs hanging around Hokkaido bases and infiltrating more deeply than usual during the past few turns. I get the feeling these are scouting, mine sweeping, testing defensive responses, and generally preparing ... for something.

The question is ... what?

I stood down the sweeps and decided to see how things would develop. It looks like Dan has pulled back fighters from the Kuriles and back to Shikuka. It also looks like the fleet is at Shikuka, complete with a lot of CV power. I'm going to take a risk and see how the sweeps perform there. I'd like to keep hitting CV CAP as often as possible if they are in a definable location near a base. If he is in the development stage for a big move, any weakening of the CV air groups and pilots would be helpful.
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Feb 4, 1945
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Night Time Surface Combat, near Kushiro at 123,53, Range 11,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
APD T-1
APD T-5
APD T-9
APD T-13

Allied Ships
YMS-396


Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 39% moonlight: 11,000 yards
Range increases to 12,000 yards...
Range increases to 12,000 yards...
Both Task Forces evade combat

Ground combat at Shimushiri-jima (132,51)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 50762 troops, 640 guns, 1086 vehicles, Assault Value = 1452

Defending force 12398 troops, 99 guns, 44 vehicles, Assault Value = 39

Allied adjusted assault: 257

Japanese adjusted defense: 75

Allied assault odds: 3 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1341 casualties reported
Squads: 67 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 13 destroyed, 75 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Guns lost 23 (20 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Vehicles lost 3 (2 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
17 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Vehicles lost 10 (1 destroyed, 9 disabled)

Assaulting units:
766th Tank Battalion
8th Australian Division
194th Tank Battalion
706th Tank Battalion
4th Marine Division
3rd Australian Division
10th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
4th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
2nd Medium Regiment

Defending units:
12th Ind.Mixed Regiment
46th Div /1
25th Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
2nd Mortar Battalion
27th Electric Engineer Regiment
49th Const Co
9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
10th Ind.Infantry Brigade
205th Naval Construction Battalion
217th Naval Construction Battalion
4th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
6th Base Force
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[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]Feb 5, 1945[/font]

---

This was an interesting and fun day. The Ki-83 is definitely coming into its own now as I get used to how to use it. I also have been getting some unexpectedly good results sweeping with the N1K5 George. It has been a beast this week, so I'll keep experimenting with this. I can't say the same for the Ki-84b as a sweeper though. It's consistently been disappointing. I tried it at 21k to see if the CL 20mm would decimate the lower CAP before getting caught by divers, but the first sweep was a disaster. The second did okay, getting a bit better than 1:1.

Altogether the Allies did slightly better on the day, but the Ki-83 and N1K5 sweeps are something to build on. Lets see where this fleet goes now! [X(]
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Feb 5, 1945
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Morning Air attack on Shikuka , at 126,43

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 24 NM, estimated altitude 44,530 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 45

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 4
Thunderbolt II x 13
Spitfire VIII x 17
F4U-1D Corsair x 22
Kittyhawk IV x 22
F-6D Mustang x 10
P-38L Lightning x 41
P-39D Airacobra x 18
P-39N1 Airacobra x 18
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 66
P-51D Mustang x 29
F4U-1A Corsair x 53
F4U-1D Corsair x 95
F6F-3 Hellcat x 6
F6F-5 Hellcat x 78

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 5 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Thunderbolt II: 1 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed
P-39N1 Airacobra: 1 destroyed
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 2 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 3 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
26 x Ki-83 sweeping at 41530 feet

CAP engaged:
VF-38 with F4U-1D Corsair (0 airborne, 11 on standby, 0 scrambling)
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 39300.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 28 minutes
VF-6 with F4U-1D Corsair (0 airborne, 15 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 39300.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 24 minutes
VF-10 with F6F-5 Hellcat (0 airborne, 17 on standby, 0 scrambling)
8 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 10000 and 37300.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 17 minutes
VF-11 with F4U-1A Corsair (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 23 minutes
VF-13 with F6F-5 Hellcat (0 airborne, 17 on standby, 0 scrambling)
8 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 10000 and 37300.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 17 minutes
VF-18 with F6F-3 Hellcat (0 airborne, 4 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters to 38800.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 17 minutes
No.898 Sqn FAA with Thunderbolt II (0 airborne, 9 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 38000 and 42000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 21 minutes
No.1830 Sqn FAA with Corsair II (0 airborne, 3 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000 , scrambling fighters to 36900.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 17 minutes
VC(F)-7 with F4U-1D Corsair (0 airborne, 12 on standby, 0 scrambling)
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 37000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 16 minutes
VRF-7F with F6F-5 Hellcat (0 airborne, 8 on standby, 0 scrambling)
3 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 12000 , scrambling fighters between 12000 and 37300.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 17 minutes
VRF-11FB with F4U-1D Corsair (0 airborne, 16 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 39300.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 17 minutes
VMF-111 with F6F-5 Hellcat (0 airborne, 12 on standby, 0 scrambling)
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 10000 and 37300.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 29 minutes
VMF-218 with F4U-1A Corsair (0 airborne, 12 on standby, 0 scrambling)
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 36900.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 17 minutes
VMF-222 with F4U-1D Corsair (0 airborne, 12 on standby, 0 scrambling)
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 39300.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 27 minutes
VMF-322 with F4U-1A Corsair (0 airborne, 12 on standby, 0 scrambling)
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 36900.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 27 minutes
VMF-422 with F4U-1A Corsair (0 airborne, 12 on standby, 0 scrambling)
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 36900.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 24 minutes
No.16 Sqn RNZAF with F4U-1D Corsair (0 airborne, 8 on standby, 0 scrambling)
3 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 11 minutes
No.19 Sqn RNZAF with F4U-1D Corsair (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 3 minutes
No.21 Sqn RNZAF with F4U-1D Corsair (0 airborne, 7 on standby, 0 scrambling)
3 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 16 minutes
No.23 Sqn RNZAF with Kittyhawk IV (0 airborne, 8 on standby, 0 scrambling)
3 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 6000 , scrambling fighters to 31000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 29 minutes

Morning Air attack on Shikuka , at 126,43

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 34 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84b Frank x 49

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 4
Thunderbolt II x 11
Spitfire VIII x 17
F4U-1D Corsair x 19
Kittyhawk IV x 22
F-6D Mustang x 9
P-38L Lightning x 40
P-39D Airacobra x 17
P-39N1 Airacobra x 17
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 64
P-51D Mustang x 27
F4U-1A Corsair x 52
F4U-1D Corsair x 89
F6F-3 Hellcat x 6
F6F-5 Hellcat x 70

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84b Frank: 9 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Spitfire VIII: 1 destroyed
P-39D Airacobra: 1 destroyed
F4U-1A Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
18 x Ki-84b Frank sweeping at 21000 feet

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Morning Air attack on Shikuka , at 126,43

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 30 NM, estimated altitude 25,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84b Frank x 48

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 4
Thunderbolt II x 10
Spitfire VIII x 14
F4U-1D Corsair x 19
Kittyhawk IV x 22
F-6D Mustang x 9
P-38L Lightning x 38
P-39D Airacobra x 13
P-39N1 Airacobra x 15
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 62
P-51D Mustang x 27
F4U-1A Corsair x 51
F4U-1D Corsair x 87
F6F-3 Hellcat x 6
F6F-5 Hellcat x 65

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84b Frank: 5 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed
P-38L Lightning: 1 destroyed
P-39D Airacobra: 1 destroyed
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
29 x Ki-84b Frank sweeping at 21000 feet

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Morning Air attack on Shikuka , at 126,43

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 27 NM, estimated altitude 29,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K5-J George x 42

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 4
Thunderbolt II x 9
Spitfire VIII x 14
F4U-1D Corsair x 18
Kittyhawk IV x 22
F-6D Mustang x 9
P-38L Lightning x 34
P-39D Airacobra x 9
P-39N1 Airacobra x 15
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 58
P-51D Mustang x 27
F4U-1A Corsair x 51
F4U-1D Corsair x 84
F6F-3 Hellcat x 6
F6F-5 Hellcat x 59

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K5-J George: 5 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Corsair II: 1 destroyed
F-6D Mustang: 1 destroyed
P-38L Lightning: 1 destroyed
P-39D Airacobra: 1 destroyed
P-39N1 Airacobra: 1 destroyed
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed
P-51D Mustang: 1 destroyed
F4U-1A Corsair: 1 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 2 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
21 x N1K5-J George sweeping at 26000 feet *

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[obvert]

Here is a look at Shikuka and Hokkaido. The fighter totals are down at Shikuka. He is posting some up to Wakkanai as shipping is either unloading or removing some troops there. I'll know more next turn.

[obvert]

Interesting seeing all of these '42 airframes like the P-39D and Kittyhawk IV flying CAP at Shikuka.

[modrow]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Interesting seeing all of these '42 airframes like the P-39D and Kittyhawk IV flying CAP at Shikuka.

Because he intends to use the new ones elsewhere or because he is getting short of new ones, what do you think ?

[mind_messing]

I think the big reason your Frank B's are losing out is their altitude.

They've 20 MVR flying in the 21k-31k band, versus 26 MVR if they're 1k lower. Drop them down a click and see how far the 8 point bonus in MVR does. Seeing as the Allies at this point have the speed advantage with some airframes, you want to maximize the MVR deltas. They're going to suffer the dive penalty anyways, might as well give them a little extra MVR.

Ditto with the Ki-83's. Looking at Allied CAP, the highest squadron is 20k. Drop the Ki-83 sweeps down to 31k and pick up another 3 points of MVR.

It reminds me of a passage from one of Patrick O'Brian's novels, the gist of it being that the wind and tide might be against you, but you should still try to eek every last edge out of the wind.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I think the big reason your Frank B's are losing out is their altitude.

They've 20 MVR flying in the 21k-31k band, versus 26 MVR if they're 1k lower. Drop them down a click and see how far the 8 point bonus in MVR does. Seeing as the Allies at this point have the speed advantage with some airframes, you want to maximize the MVR deltas. They're going to suffer the dive penalty anyways, might as well give them a little extra MVR.

Ditto with the Ki-83's. Looking at Allied CAP, the highest squadron is 20k. Drop the Ki-83 sweeps down to 31k and pick up another 3 points of MVR.

It reminds me of a passage from one of Patrick O'Brian's novels, the gist of it being that the wind and tide might be against you, but you should still try to eek every last edge out of the wind.

Yep. thanks for the tips. I have been looking at exactly that, but wanted to come up over the 20k CAP that is usually set. I agree though maybe at 20k with the extra MNV it'll do better.

The N1K5 seems to be getting those results at 25k due to it's great MNV ll of the way down.

For the Ki-83 I am moving it around, but at a big base I wanted it high thinking there would be a lot of CAP and a lot up high, but only a few can top it out, so it could still get the dive on most airframes there. Seemed to work with that one.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: modrow

ORIGINAL: obvert

Interesting seeing all of these '42 airframes like the P-39D and Kittyhawk IV flying CAP at Shikuka.

Because he intends to use the new ones elsewhere or because he is getting short of new ones, what do you think ?

Well, I've been pondering that for a while in various posts over the last few months. I'm of course seeing a heavily FOW influenced report, but the number there combined with my in game experience of daily losses make me think he doesn't have much in the pools for either the USAAF 3rd gen fighters or the USN/Marines fighter pools.

Lets break it down for the USAAF. These numbers include the groups that arrive with airframes as much as possible using my Allied games.

I do know the P-47D2 are finished. I haven't seen them in a while now and the numbers support this conclusion. The P-51B is done as well. Same for several of the P-38 variants up to the J. I think there are a few of the J still around.

Looks like there are ~70 total USAAF fighter groups at about this time (70 x 25 = 1,750).

P-47D25 arrival date: 03-44 (> 06/44)
Arrivals in groups: 150
Total Build: 850 (175 x 4 months = 700 + 150)
Lost: 835 (2/6/45 report)

Available ~15

P-51D arrival date: 11-44
44 Arrivals in groups: 100
Total Build: 550 (150 x 3 = 450 +100 through 1/45)
Lost: 300 (2/6/45 report)

Available: ~250

P-38L arrival date: 06-44
Arrivals: none
Total Build: 640 (80 x 8 = 640 through 1/45)
Lost: 440 (2/6/45 report)

Available ~ 200

F-6D arrival date: 11-44
Arrivals: none
Total Build: 90 (30 x 3 = 90 through 1/45)
Lost: 2 (2/6/45 report)

Available ~ 88

So with less than 550 of the best fighters available and 1,750 spots to fill, there have to be a lot of 2nd gen airframes flying around right now for the USAAF.

The P-47N is good and arrives next month at 100/month, so that will help him out, but my goal would be to have pools emptied and groups depleted before that time.

This explains also why the Corsair is the primary sweeping airframe for the Allies, since it's production is the highest the Allies get between the F4U-1A and F4U-1D (both USN and NZ), plus the Corsair II. He can also use the 42 plane groups.

[mind_messing]

To be honest, at least half of the late game involves managing turn fatigue better than your opponent. With dozens and dozens of squadrons and ships beyond telling, it's nigh impossible to min-max. You just need to eek the advantages better than your opponent. Lazy CAP, bomber groups set on the same strike mission day after day, stuff like that. The hard part is exploiting it for your own gain while not doing it yourself.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]Feb 6, 1945[/font]

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Not much going on in terms of action on the 6th. A sub hits a mine, but that also is part of the incursion plan that seems to be happening all over the North right now.

I still see the fleet up at Shikuka, and the base now has about 1,200 fighters moved in. Reinforcements!

A small naval action as three little fishing trawlers acting as PB scouts hit hard at the raiding DD Thanet. [;)]
[font="Trebuchet MS"][/font]
[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Feb 6, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TF 594 encounters mine field at Bihoro (123,51)

Allied Ships
SS Pintado, Mine hits 1, heavy damage

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Day Time Surface Combat, near Kushiro at 128,68, Range 8,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
PB Urashio Maru, Shell hits 7, heavy fires, heavy damage
PB Tsukikawa Maru, Shell hits 3, heavy fires
PB Teibo Maru #2, Shell hits 2, heavy fires

Allied Ships
DD Thanet, Shell hits 7, heavy fires, heavy damage

Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions: 21,000 yards
Range closes to 24,000 yards...
Range closes to 18,000 yards...
Range closes to 12,000 yards...
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 12,000 yards
Range closes to 8,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allied lookouts spot Japanese task force at 8,000 yards
DD Thanet engages PB Teibo Maru #2 at 8,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Donggala at 69,96

Japanese Ships
E No.72
E No.112

Allied Ships
SS Sculpin, hits 31, on fire, heavy damage

SS Sculpin launches 4 torpedoes at E No.72
Sculpin diving deep ....
E No.112 attacking submerged sub ....
E No.72 fails to find sub, continues to search...
E No.112 fails to find sub and abandons search
E No.72 attacking submerged sub ....
Sounds of submarine breaking up detected!
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/color][/font]

The Allies have moved their blocking hex troops back to Wakkanai. It now has 170k+ troops. Ships are in hex and I'm betting some of those sail out. I'll sweep tomorrow to try for the CAP there protecting them. I'm also going to move back some of my reserves central Hokkaido in case he is planning to land behind here at Bihoro, Muroran, Sapporo, or Kushiro.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

To be honest, at least half of the late game involves managing turn fatigue better than your opponent. With dozens and dozens of squadrons and ships beyond telling, it's nigh impossible to min-max. You just need to eek the advantages better than your opponent. Lazy CAP, bomber groups set on the same strike mission day after day, stuff like that. The hard part is exploiting it for your own gain while not doing it yourself.

This is part of it, but this game is also without SL, so the Allies can dump as much as they want anywhere. The air war is significant, but he can protect landings with the DS and I have to be able to meet him on the ground with a LOT of troops if he lands on Hokkaido deep or on Honshu or Korea. This'll be interesting!

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

To be honest, at least half of the late game involves managing turn fatigue better than your opponent. With dozens and dozens of squadrons and ships beyond telling, it's nigh impossible to min-max. You just need to eek the advantages better than your opponent. Lazy CAP, bomber groups set on the same strike mission day after day, stuff like that. The hard part is exploiting it for your own gain while not doing it yourself.

Wow - great observation! Agree in spades.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

To be honest, at least half of the late game involves managing turn fatigue better than your opponent. With dozens and dozens of squadrons and ships beyond telling, it's nigh impossible to min-max. You just need to eek the advantages better than your opponent. Lazy CAP, bomber groups set on the same strike mission day after day, stuff like that. The hard part is exploiting it for your own gain while not doing it yourself.

This is part of it, but this game is also without SL, so the Allies can dump as much as they want anywhere. The air war is significant, but he can protect landings with the DS and I have to be able to meet him on the ground with a LOT of troops if he lands on Hokkaido deep or on Honshu or Korea. This'll be interesting!

The lack of stacking limits gives far more to Japan than it does to the Allies. The Allies don't care about supply expenditure and by '44 one USMC or Army rifle squad is worth about two IJA squads in terms of firepower. It's better with two landings of 5k AV than ten landings with 1k AV each, even if it doesn't feel like it.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

To be honest, at least half of the late game involves managing turn fatigue better than your opponent. With dozens and dozens of squadrons and ships beyond telling, it's nigh impossible to min-max. You just need to eek the advantages better than your opponent. Lazy CAP, bomber groups set on the same strike mission day after day, stuff like that. The hard part is exploiting it for your own gain while not doing it yourself.

This is part of it, but this game is also without SL, so the Allies can dump as much as they want anywhere. The air war is significant, but he can protect landings with the DS and I have to be able to meet him on the ground with a LOT of troops if he lands on Hokkaido deep or on Honshu or Korea. This'll be interesting!

The lack of stacking limits gives far more to Japan than it does to the Allies. The Allies don't care about supply expenditure and by '44 one USMC or Army rifle squad is worth about two IJA squads in terms of firepower. It's better with two landings of 5k AV than ten landings with 1k AV each, even if it doesn't feel like it.

I'm not sure I get what you're saying, but I think I strongly disagree!! [:D]

Supply is not what I'm thinking about when I'm thinking about SL. The Allies can't land unlimited troops with SL because of disruption and fatigue, which will delay progress in long term siege battles. If they can land 5k AV without penalty at (almost) any point on the map, it makes a big difference.