Miller (J) vs Mr Kane (A)

[Miller]

Industry





All levels beginning to fall slightly each turn, as to be expected now. I have a good number of planes and engines in the pool, will put up a screenshot after I do the next turn.

[Miller]

Aircraft/Engine pools

[Miller]

Part 2





Pilot wise its mixed bag. I'm struggling for fighter pilots, mainly for the army. I have have plenty of naval bomber pilots trained up and over 1500 Army pilots with 70+ low naval skill for potential kamikaze work...

[Miller]

And a screenshot of the PI area:





The red line shows the only viable route for my tankers shipping the oil out of Singapore. He did have a lot of subs in the Sulu sea but I have loaded up that area with ASW TFs to keep their heads down. The green arrows show his next possible areas of advance. I'm busy airlifting troops out of Timor and the Celebes and forming a new defensive line on Mindanao and Jolo, Puertop Princesa etc. I'm also reducing the garrison levels on the Marianas as he can effectively bypass this area if he wants to.

[mind_messing]

The big thing is if you've still DEI oil flowing out, the situation is bad but not terrible. You've also the KB, which is a massive plus.

Given that it's Dec of '44, things look pretty decent. Based on recent developments, I think you're right to throw a lot of reinforcements into the PI as given the overall situation I'd have good money on Kane wanting to open sea lanes to China and cut off the oil for good. Based on my experiences, not really sure if the PI is worth throwing the KB away for or if I'd hide it away for mid/late '45...

What's your overall plan for the PI?

Fighting as far forward as you can is probably a good bet here, even if it's expensive in the long run. More oil/fuel in the end means more supply, which you'll need at the end.

The late-war reinforcements for Manchuria should start to arrive in force now. Considering that you've till August before the Soviets become active, it might be worthwhile considering moving them to China and using them to push back the Chinese in a limited fashion. Looking at the map, maybe rail them to Tsingtao and march on the Suchow/Haichow area? My thinking here is a limited bid for VP's (Chinese units are about all the IJA can beat at this stage) and to build experience for the IJA units to (forlornly) prepare them for the Russian onslaught.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

The big thing is if you've still DEI oil flowing out, the situation is bad but not terrible. You've also the KB, which is a massive plus.

+1

[Miller]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

The big thing is if you've still DEI oil flowing out, the situation is bad but not terrible. You've also the KB, which is a massive plus.

Given that it's Dec of '44, things look pretty decent. Based on recent developments, I think you're right to throw a lot of reinforcements into the PI as given the overall situation I'd have good money on Kane wanting to open sea lanes to China and cut off the oil for good. Based on my experiences, not really sure if the PI is worth throwing the KB away for or if I'd hide it away for mid/late '45...

What's your overall plan for the PI?

Fighting as far forward as you can is probably a good bet here, even if it's expensive in the long run. More oil/fuel in the end means more supply, which you'll need at the end.

The late-war reinforcements for Manchuria should start to arrive in force now. Considering that you've till August before the Soviets become active, it might be worthwhile considering moving them to China and using them to push back the Chinese in a limited fashion. Looking at the map, maybe rail them to Tsingtao and march on the Suchow/Haichow area? My thinking here is a limited bid for VP's (Chinese units are about all the IJA can beat at this stage) and to build experience for the IJA units to (forlornly) prepare them for the Russian onslaught.

Yes the KB is the only thing stopping him from simply parking his CVs in the middle of the South China sea and blocking off any further Oil shipments. Having said that, and despite the fact I have only lost one CVL all game he must outnumber me at least 2:1 in carrier based a/c by now. If I was him I would forget about the PI and simply make one massive armada and sail it up to Port Arthur. Dump 10 Divs there then use them on reducing the garrison in Manchuria to force a Soviet activation, then it really would be game over.

Would like to counter in China as you suggested, but any unit of mine in open terrain would be gutted by 4E bomber attacks. I'm happy just to delay him for now, those big Chinese corps are good in a defensive role but still pretty limited when attacking, even en masse in defensive terrain they suffer large losses.

[BBfanboy]

I experimented with the Manchukuo Garrison reduction thing. Russians did not activate until about six months after the garrison dropped below the 8000 AV level. By then I had reduced it to around 2700. That was early game so there may also be a game date factor in the die rolls for activation that makes it more likely later in the game.

The other issue with Port Arthur is the LBA you would have sitting on both sides of a narrow sea to hit any resupply and reinforcement.

[Miller]

Just after a bit of advice here, current position in Malaya:





I have 7 Divs plus support sitting at Chumphon, about 3k AV in total, he has 5k AV there, mainly infantry and only one armoured unit. I'm low on supply here but I don't think he has any realistic chance of kicking me out. However, I fear if he was to launch a major amphib operation somewhere on the lower west coast they could end up being cut off with no chance of rescue from sea. I'm thinking of pulling everything back to the line indicated just in case. Even falling back to here it would only put the P-51D in fighter range of Palembang.

Thoughts?

[obvert]

I like the look of Singora because it's the rail split. If you control that you still don't allow anything to be railed in which could really allow some element of surprise to Allied possibilities.

Are you both walking all of that way and can you keep him from nailing you at some point when his forces move faster than yours? Or even when you're evacuating Chumpon?

[Miller]

ORIGINAL: obvert

I like the look of Singora because it's the rail split. If you control that you still don't allow anything to be railed in which could really allow some element of surprise to Allied possibilities.

Are you both walking all of that way and can you keep him from nailing you at some point when his forces move faster than yours? Or even when you're evacuating Chumpon?

It would be walking all the way, unless I sacrifice a support unit to block north of Surat Thani and give the rest time to get into strat move and head south before he enters it. As you say Signora looks like a decent bet.

[Miller]

1st-31st Dec 44

Only real action of note is in China





The red areas are where most of the troop concentrations remain. In the south he manages to split the bulk of my forces in two, I manage to get 2k AV into Canton and behind 6 forts and x4 terrain so I doubt he will make any attempt to capture it for the time being. Looks like he is going to try for Hong Kong and the bases on the south eastern coast with his armour. The central area around Hankow and Changsha is still stalemated.

On mind messing's advice I lauched a limited counter offensive on the east coast and retook Haichow but am now bogged down at Suchow with no chance of taking it. I will probably retreat NE towards Tsinan before he kicks me out. In the air I throw every 2E Army bomber I have on a multiple missions to reduce the HI at Chungking. He rebuilt it up to 300 and I bomb it back down to 80, as you can imagine at great cost of about 400 a/c including escorts. I don't know if this will effect his supply situation in any way but at least I'm still trying...


The only other event to report is his restarting of night strat bombing of the homeland, which has been largely ineffective and netted him only a few hundred points for the month.

[Miller]

One very noteable development on the last day of the year. Recon picks up what looks like a possible invasion of the Marianas forming up just north Einiwetok:





The entire KB is to the north circled in red. From what I can tell from recon his CVE cover force with mainly fighters is sitting in the middle 10 hexes east of the Islands, no doubt hoping to draw a LBA strike. His assault shipping is towards the south east corner. No sign of his big CVs. The KB is not spotted yet but I imagine with the subs around it he must have a fair idea it is in the area. I've loaded up Guam, Tinian and Saipan with 250-300 fighters piloted by replacements and a small 27 plane TB unit. Hopefully if he comes closer they will launch and act as a noob fighter sweep and burn up the CAP somewhat for a large KB strike....

[Miller]

1st-3rd Jan 45

The 3rd sees a decisive carrier battle that tips the balance firmly towards the Allies.

The day gets off to a good start as CVE Almataha is sunk by a sub. The morning air phase sees both CV fleets unable to launch due to the weather, however most of the LBA on the Marianas fly:

Morning Air attack on TF, near Saipan at 114,98

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B6N2 Jill x 35
B6N2a Jill x 3
J2M3 Jack x 27
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 38
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 33
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 35
Ki-84a Frank x 44
Ki-100-I Tony x 48

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 54
Hellcat I x 36
Hellcat F.II x 12
Seafire L.III x 60
Wildcat V x 12
FM-1 Wildcat x 221
FM-2 Wildcat x 744
F6F-3 Hellcat x 654
F6F-5 Hellcat x 84
OS2U-3 Kingfisher x 8

Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2 Jill: 2 destroyed, 8 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 3 destroyed by flak
B6N2a Jill: 1 damaged
J2M3 Jack: 12 destroyed
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 14 destroyed
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 9 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 12 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 17 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 21 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Seafire L.III: 1 destroyed
FM-1 Wildcat: 3 destroyed
FM-2 Wildcat: 5 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
OS2U-3 Kingfisher: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
CVE Gambier Bay
CVE Manila Bay, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
CVE Liscome Bay, Torpedo hits 5, and is sunk
CVE Nehenta Bay, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
CVE Kalinin Bay, Torpedo hits 1, Kamikaze hits 2, on fire
CVE White Plains, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
CVE Natoma Bay, Torpedo hits 1, on fire

Aircraft Attacking:
31 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
3 x B6N2a Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo

So despite his monster almost 2000 plane CAP (obviously virtually every flat top he has in the game is there no doubt) the bullet sponges do their job and the Jills get through and a 50% hit rate. Unfortunately another 50 or so fail to locate the target or it could have been even worse for him.

Then in the PM phase the KB launches a monster:
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Saipan at 112,97

Weather in hex: Severe storms[:(]

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 25
A6M5c Zero x 64
A6M8 Zero x 424
B7A2 Grace x 300
D4Y3 Judy x 267
D4Y4 Judy x 69

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 50
Hellcat I x 36
Hellcat F.II x 12
Seafire L.III x 59
Wildcat V x 12
FM-1 Wildcat x 142
FM-2 Wildcat x 496
F6F-3 Hellcat x 344
F6F-5 Hellcat x 38

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 5 destroyed
A6M5c Zero: 16 destroyed
A6M8 Zero: 78 destroyed
B7A2 Grace: 16 destroyed, 21 damaged
B7A2 Grace: 1 destroyed by flak
D4Y3 Judy: 19 destroyed, 14 damaged
D4Y3 Judy: 1 destroyed by flak
D4Y4 Judy: 6 destroyed, 2 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Corsair II: 1 destroyed
Hellcat I: 3 destroyed
Hellcat F.II: 1 destroyed
Seafire L.III: 1 destroyed
Wildcat V: 2 destroyed
FM-1 Wildcat: 13 destroyed
FM-2 Wildcat: 32 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 19 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 2 destroyed

Allied Ships
CVE Attu
CVE Salamaua
CVE Saginaw Bay, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
CVE Hoggatt Bay, Bomb hits 5, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
CVE Petrof Bay, Bomb hits 7, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
CVE Fanshaw Bay, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires
CVE Shipley Bay, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
CVE Savo Island, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
CVE Rudyerd Bay, Bomb hits 9, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
CVE Sitkoh Bay, Bomb hits 8, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
CVE Wake Island, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
CV Kircholm
DD Picking, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
CVE Takanis Bay
CVE Kasaan Bay, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
CVE Sargent Bay
CVE Casablanca, Torpedo hits 1
CVE St. Lo, Bomb hits 8, heavy fires, heavy damage
CL Houston II, Bomb hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Robinson
DD Philip, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DD Ringgold, Bomb hits 1, on fire
BB New Jersey, Torpedo hits 1, Kamikaze hits 1
CVE Roi, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
DD John Rodgers
DD Rowe, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
CL Vincennes II, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
DD David Taylor, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Sigsbee
CVL San Jacinto
CVE Admiralty Island, Bomb hits 1, Kamikaze hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Richard P. Leary
DD Pringle
CVE Ranee
CVL Independence, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

About 80% of the bombers get through the CAP, however results are relatively poor due to severe storms over the target, plus as in previous games, the targeting AI concentrates on the CVEs and leaves his CV unmolested....

So for a moment I'm thinking he has set his strike a/c to rest as his CAP was so high...unfortunately I was very wrong:

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Tinian at 109,97

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 34 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 11
A6M5c Zero x 26
A6M8 Zero x 181
J2M3 Jack x 6
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 18

Allied aircraft
Avenger II x 32
Barracuda II x 17
FM-1 Wildcat x 29
FM-2 Wildcat x 26
F6F-3 Hellcat x 272
F6F-5 Hellcat x 42
SB2C-1C Helldiver x 146
SB2C-3 Helldiver x 174
TBF-1 Avenger x 30
TBM-1C Avenger x 292

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 1 destroyed
A6M5c Zero: 1 destroyed
A6M8 Zero: 9 destroyed
J2M3 Jack: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 7 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Avenger II: 1 damaged
Barracuda II: 2 destroyed, 4 damaged
F6F-3 Hellcat: 3 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
SB2C-1C Helldiver: 5 destroyed, 16 damaged
SB2C-3 Helldiver: 7 destroyed, 24 damaged
TBF-1 Avenger: 1 destroyed, 3 damaged
TBM-1C Avenger: 28 destroyed, 22 damaged
TBM-1C Avenger: 2 destroyed by flak

Japanese Ships
CV Ikoma, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CV Aso, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
CVL Nisshin, Bomb hits 8, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Kasagi, Bomb hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Kaga, Bomb hits 6, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
CVL Zuiho, Bomb hits 9, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
CV Soryu, Bomb hits 12, heavy fires, heavy damage
CVE Hosho, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
CVL Shoho, Bomb hits 5, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
DD Teruzuki
CV Akagi, Bomb hits 12, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Natsuzuki, Bomb hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage
CVL Ibuki, Bomb hits 11, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Umikaze, Bomb hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
BB Nagato
CVL Ryuho, Torpedo hits 1
DD Samidare, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Yudachi, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Haruzuki, Bomb hits 1
DD Makinami, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Tamanami
DD Hamanami
DD Hayanami
DD Hatsuzuki

He gets better weather and my CAP is far too small to kill many of the bombers (I had it set at 30%, in hindsight it should have been 50%). As you can see about half the KB is destroyed. Overall it looks like I sink about 15 CVEs, but at a cost of 5 or 6 CVs and 5 CVLs. We both lose around 1000 a/c to all causes. No doubt with all his CVs still in play he will go for the kill tomorrow....

[Miller]

Air losses

[Miller]

By type






Bomber losses are fairly light on both sides due to the huge escorts they had. Most the surviving a/c from my doomed carriers are on the Marianas but I'm sure he will be sending bomardment TFs to each base next turn. Do I evacuate them or stand and fight???

[Lowpe]

Epic late war CV clash...I think you did well given the circumstances (i.e. weather disparity)

[Miller]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Epic late war CV clash...I think you did well given the circumstances (i.e. weather disparity)

I agree. Considering the size of his CAP I have to be happy many bombers got through at all, just the weather dice roll let me down. What would you do in Kane's shoes? Surely he must press on despite losing so many a/c?

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Miller

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Epic late war CV clash...I think you did well given the circumstances (i.e. weather disparity)

I agree. Considering the size of his CAP I have to be happy many bombers got through at all, just the weather dice roll let me down. What would you do in Kane's shoes? Surely he must press on despite losing so many a/c?

He will attack everywhere he can now with increased vigor.

[Canoerebel]

That looked decent, Paul. You're into '45 and still not backed into a corner. I think you're fighting well. A Japanese player who fights into '45 against a quality opponent deserves some kind of tenacity medal.

P.S. Where are his Corsairs?