Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

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AcePylut
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RE: Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

Post by AcePylut »

In thinking more about this, I believe these fleets in New Guinea are Buna and Gili-Gili invasion fleets. I suspect there is some carrier support closeby, but I don’t have search planes up and looking for it. The next turn, I will fly some PBY’s into Rabaul and PM and establish coverage. I wish I had thought of that last nite, but oh well.

This delay should give my “Brit BC Fleet” the time needed to form up and get into a close attack position. I can’t prevent the landings, but if I get lucky and time it right, I can maybe sink some ships.
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RE: Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

Post by AcePylut »

Singkawang's airfield is 3, and the strike vector (and mouseover) both showed that it was the offending airfield.
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RE: Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

Post by AcePylut »

Dec 19th

Hong Kong withstands yet another deliberate attack. The IJ troops are pretty beat up, they have failed to get a 1-1 for the last 3 or 4 attacks. Sooner or later, my HK boys will run out of supplies and replacements, but not this turn and not next turn 😊 Attacking AV was 567, but only 399 after adjustment. The defending force AV is 119, but 553 after adjustment. The IJ lost 25 squads destroyed and 22 disabled. I lost 3 squads destroyed and 8 disabled. I do have “accept replacements on” for the HK troops. I am not able to fly any Chinese troops into HK. Something about “restricted units” or such, and I don’t have enough PP to change the base to fly in Chinese troops.

2 Chinese units just entered Canton, and 2 more will arrive in about 3-4 days. These troops are “why” there aren’t enough IJ troops at HK to finish the job. Chickenboy is rightfully protecting Canton from the Chinese horde (although, all he really needs to defend it is about a regiment, given it’s heavy urbanness terrain and weakarse Chinese attackers).

Elsewhere – my 3 DD headed to Singkawang got intercepted by an IJ fleet of 3 CA and 4 DD. After a set of 3-4 running battles along the coast, all of my DD’s were sunk and the IJ fleet retired to Singkawang. The Japanese will be out of torps and moderately low on ammo as my DD’s did put up a valiant effort and hit the enemy a few times, but no serious damage inflicted. Mouseover at Singkawang shows multiple TF’s and 70 IJ bombers. I may send in the Houston/Boise TF to see what it can do… however… if one of those IJ transport TF’s is unloading an Air HQ and the bombers have torps – it may get ugly for me. If I do send in my fleet, I will send every bomber I have at Singkawang’s airfield and hope to suppress it a little. I’m undecided at the moment on what I’ll do. The BB POW tf is too far away to do anything (it’s by Ambon just chillaxin).

Near PM, the “Gili-Gili” SCTF pulled back and is supporting a fleet headed towards Buna. I’m sorry but ever since Flat Top, I’ve always called it Gili-Gili and not Milne Bay. My Repulse fleet isn’t quite formed up yet, but will sit a few hexes SW of the “gili-gili” gap for a turn and be prepared. This will also allow me to get some search coverage out of PM and Rabaul to search for the KB.

Speaking of – the KB and Mini-KB has been out of sight for a few days now. Perhaps it went to rearm sorties, perhaps it’s lurking out of range waiting for me to make a stupid mistake. As such, my aggressive level will be toned down to a more cautious level for those locations just inside any of my search ranges. Across the South Pacific, I have multiple AVD’s and AV’s slowly getting into position to setup a multi-layered search coverage. It’s the key for me, right now.

Morotai, Davao, and Victoria Point all fell to the enemy today.
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RE: Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

Post by AcePylut »

After careful deliberation, I sent in the Houston/Boise/DeRuyter 4DD tf on a full speed dash into Singkawang.
There are three factors that caused hesitation:
1) I hope that the IJ fleet is moderately low on ammo (I believe so)
2) I hope that there isn’t another similar IJ SCTF close by (I don’t think there is).
3) hope the Singkawang Netties don’t have torps (I don’t know).

My thoughts on each:
#1- I feel confident considering the actions against the 3 DD fleet yesterday. At the least, I know the IJ fleet they expended many of their torps. I know I put a few shells into 2 CA’s so hopefully their “flames” make them easier to spot and hit (I have no idea if this is coded so I’m role-playing this hope).
#2- I consider the IJ fleets in the Solomon’s, Esprito Santo, Morotai, and KB/MiniKB escort duty, and the lack of Allied Surface fleets north of Borneo, there isn’t really a reason to have heavier IJ ships in the region. I’m pretty sure he’ll make the Palembang move when he’s got air superiority, and is assured that the POW and Repulse are not close by (or at least, are not a factor due to torpedo Nettie threat)
#3- In attempt to limit this threat, I’ve rebased all my Dutch bombers to Palembang and set them to attack Singkawang’s airfield at 2k feet alt. Mouseover of Singkawang and Kuching shows no fighters, so hopefully I only have to contend with AA. These bombers will be at extended range and will each only carry (2) 300kb bombs. I have about 40 on attack. Also, I re-based a fair amount of my Dutch search planes to Batavia and have them set to airfield attack. They also carry 300kb bombs. It’s the best I can do. I’ve always considered the Dutch air force a “one shot weapon” and this is the shot that gives me the best chance to do something effective with it, rather than get slaughtered against CAP trying to stop an unstoppable invasion fleet of Java.

These three items made me waffle between being aggressive and cautious. I want to play aggressive, but not stupid. This would be aggressive and could lead to a few ships sunk on my side for no gain, it could lead to an approximate split of ships sunk (I’d be happy with that), it could lead to me smashing a few IJ ships at little to no cost (I’d be ecstatic about that).
It came down to this: Even if I do get smashed for no IJ ships sunk, I have gained the “initiative” in a sense. Such an action tells Chickenboy that I’m not afraid to fight with important ships in a less than 50/50 battle. This will force him to believe that “anywhere he goes, I might show up with combat ships and planes” and that will force him to protect all his fleets with what he believes to be adequate to defend against my ships. There won’t be any “no escorts for the AK’s’ invasions. This will delay, however, briefly, the invasion of the DEI and gains me time. And time gained, for the Allies at this stage of the game, is victory. This is why I’m sending the fleet it… not so much because I believe I will score a dramatic victory, but because I want him to ask himself, on ever decision to invade anything, “Do I have enough ships, and can I afford to lose them”
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RE: Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

Post by anarchyintheuk »

+1 Gili Gili
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RE: Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

Post by AcePylut »

Just watched the replay and all my hopes failed.

Turns out there was a bigger, larger fleet at Singkawang, and the netties did have torps.

A few running battles with a 2 BB 2 CA 2 CL 6 DD Japanese fleet put the Houston, DeRuyter, and 2 DD's on the bottom of the ocean. The Boise took 1 large caliber hit and is damaged. The netties with their torps didn't really do anything but finish off a DD.

I figured out what happened - a Dutch Pilot spotted BB's, but translated the Dutch "B" into an English "P" in his reports, so we suspected there were 2 PB's, not 2 BB's. That's a fatal mistake.... fatal for the Dutch pilot as he's been taken out back and shot.


That's my excuse and I'm running with it :)

So.....

1) I hope that the IJ fleet is moderately low on ammo - Doesn't matter
2) I hope that there isn’t another similar IJ SCTF close by - There was.
3) hope the Singkawang Netties don’t have torps - They do.


As Sun Tze said - "If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle."

I knew myself, but not my enemy, so on this engagement - I suffered a defeat.
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RE: Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

Post by rustysi »

Just watched the replay and all my hopes failed.

Geeze, that was quick.[:D]

There's another axiom that maybe you should consider. Something about 'a fleet in being'.[:D]
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In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche

Cave ab homine unius libri. Ltn Prvb
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RE: Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

Post by AcePylut »

The Main Body of the KB is at the Admiralty Islands west of Kavieng. A detachment of the KB - perhaps the Mini-KB - is located at Shortlands. Also, Efate flipped to IJ control. I'm thinking this portends a move to New Zealand, or perhaps Australia. It seems like an awful lot of air power to cover the PM invasion. It might also indicate a move to the East towards Suva and Pago Pago. They are all low hanging fruit.
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RE: Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

Post by BBfanboy »

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

The Main Body of the KB is at the Admiralty Islands west of Kavieng. A detachment of the KB - perhaps the Mini-KB - is located at Shortlands. Also, Efate flipped to IJ control. I'm thinking this portends a move to New Zealand, or perhaps Australia. It seems like an awful lot of air power to cover the PM invasion. It might also indicate a move to the East towards Suva and Pago Pago. They are all low hanging fruit.

Chickenboy is an experienced IJ player and he knows the dangers of over-extension, which a NZ gambit would be - big time. I think he is hunting your ships and especially your carriers while he knows he has superiority in numbers, quality and experience. Every IJ player dreams of knocking out all the US carriers and having a free hand right into 1943. At the same time there are some mandatory targets he has to cover for his invasions - Rabaul, Port Moresby, Milne Bay and Horn Island, plus all the Solomons.
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
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RE: Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

Post by rustysi »

Chickenboy is an experienced IJ player and he knows the dangers of over-extension, which a NZ gambit would be - big time. I think he is hunting your ships and especially your carriers while he knows he has superiority in numbers, quality and experience. Every IJ player dreams of knocking out all the US carriers and having a free hand right into 1943. At the same time there are some mandatory targets he has to cover for his invasions - Rabaul, Port Moresby, Milne Bay and Horn Island, plus all the Solomons.

+1
It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume

In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche

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RE: Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

Post by AcePylut »

Well lets see how this cut and paste mashup works...

The last turn was rather slow, nothing major. 2 thiings of note, a dutch sub west of Peleliu put a torp into a large Japanese transport.

Also, at Christmas Island south of PH, a lone Japanese CL engaged 2 AVP's. For some reason, the CL put one shell into an AVP and then fled. I don't know why. I"m dispatching a 2 CA 2 CL 4 DD force toward Christmas Island, but I wonder about the presence of a solitary CL. ChickenBoy is too experienced to just "leave" that there, it's possible bait, but I see nothing else around the area and I have decent search coverage over the region.



For this turn, the big decision I have to make is if I want to send in Force Z to Manado or to Morotai. As you recall, I put two torps into a Japanese BB a couple turns back.

The IJ ships next to Lae are the Japanese CA/CL force that was hanging around Gili-Gili. The mini-kb is by Shortland Island. The real KB was near the Admiralty islands and has disappeared, possibly heading NW to cover these inbound fleets? If it is, then Force Z would be in trouble if it lingers longer than a turn. Do I have enough in Force Z to cause some damage to the IJ fleets? Will it turn out to be a disasster? Or will I hold fast and see how the next turn plays out, then decide? I don't know... I have a couple hours before I send the turn off, I'll have to think on it.

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RE: Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

Post by AcePylut »

I moved Force Z to the base two hexes S of Ternate and disbanded it to hide out from enemy air tomorrow. This base gives Force Z a 6 hex run into Morotai and Manado... something do-able on a full speed run, should there be no sightings of the KB and I believe it's worth it. It's also back far enough to make a full-speed run "out of danger" if necessary.
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RE: Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

Post by AcePylut »

So.... how well do you think 1 Brit BC, 3 Dutch CL's, and 8 or so DD's would fare against three Jap CA's and a few DD's?
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RE: Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

Post by tarkalak »

Completely obliterated !?

Completely avoided each other !?
I do not know what is scarier: that I do understand nothing of this demonic script or that I am starting to see the demons that it evokes.

Me, studying for a PHD entry exam in Applied Mathematics.
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RE: Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

Post by AcePylut »

If I launch this attack, and I’m leaning towards it, I figure when all is said and done, I’ll lose the Brit BC, 2 CL, and maybe 3-4 DD’s… (if not outright lost in battle, than probably before they can reach a safe port to heal their damage appropriately) I can get my TF in before any enemy air shows up as the KB is not spotted anywhere (but I suspect it’s close), and I’ll get Force Z to engage at night. The IJ fleet in question moved to the base SW of Manado, so that shaves 1 hex off of the movement, and makes the retreat path much shorter. If I can take down at least 2 CA for my expected losses, I’ll be happy.
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RE: Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

Post by Anachro »

I look at any Japanese CA's sunk as a strategic victory. You are Grant, not Lee. Ships are replaceable for you, irreplaceable for Chickenboy.
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RE: Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

Post by Sardaukar »

It's going to be 50-50.
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RE: Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

Post by AcePylut »

That’s my thought Ancharo. Tactically I’ll probably lose. Operationally there won’t be much of an impact except to maybe slow the DEI Conquest a couple/few weeks as he ensures that all his fleets are covered by sufficient forces. Strategically, he’s only got 30ish CA’s or so for the entire war, and bagging 2 of them in the first 3 weeks of war is a long term, winning, exchange as that’s damn near 10% of his CA’s. If I get one of them, well I hope I take 3-4 of his DD’s with me!

I do put the fight at about 50/50, should their force disposition be accurate. Should one of those CA’s turn out to be a couple of BB’s, I’m in trouble.

So this is the next “hrm”. Last turn about 20-30 Dutch bombers attacked this IJ fleet. They bombed (missed) 3 CA’s. But were they CAs or is it just FOW and there’s a BB or two in there? Remember, these idiot Dutch pilots thought a BB was PB a few turns ago 😊 I went past my sub intercepts the last few turns, no BB’s around except for the Hiei which took two torps a few turns back. No indications of any other BB’s around from the search arcs.
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RE: Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

Post by BBfanboy »

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

That’s my thought Ancharo. Tactically I’ll probably lose. Operationally there won’t be much of an impact except to maybe slow the DEI Conquest a couple/few weeks as he ensures that all his fleets are covered by sufficient forces. Strategically, he’s only got 30ish CA’s or so for the entire war, and bagging 2 of them in the first 3 weeks of war is a long term, winning, exchange as that’s damn near 10% of his CA’s. If I get one of them, well I hope I take 3-4 of his DD’s with me!

Unless you are playing a mod that beefs up the IJN, Japan had only 18 CAs and did not add any during the war:
- 4 Atago Class - 10 guns
- 4 Myoko Class- 10 guns
- 4 Mogami Class - 10 guns
- 2 Tone class - 8 guns
- 4 Kako/Aoba class - 6 guns

The Kako/Aoba class are fragile and fairly easy to sink. All of them carry Long Lance torps which are the real danger during a night action. Your BC is likely irrelevant if it takes a couple of torps - it won't likely hit anything then.

Japan had something like 24-26-8 CLs, but only six of them were the modern Agano or Oyodo classes.
-Two (Kashii and Katori IIRC) were training cruisers with little armour and poor crew experience - quite weak.
-Yubari was an experimental "undulating deck" design with a modern turret arrangement but little armour and a small hull that made her top-heavy. I think the game reduces her durability because it was prone to capsizing.
-Tenryu and Tatsuta were WWI designs - small, under gunned and under-armoured (not the Tommy Copper kind [;)] ) but although their torps were not Long Lances, they worked!
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RE: Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

Post by AcePylut »

I've always played mods so I figured on 30 CA's... however this is a stock Scen 2 game, so if it's 18, then 18 it is and that makes me that much more "damn the torpedos, attack attack attack"

Here's the air attack that tells me what he had.

"Allied aircraft
139WH-3 x 14
Hudson I x 4

Allied aircraft losses
139WH-3: 6 damaged
139WH-3: 1 destroyed by flak
Hudson I: 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
CA Nachi
DD Tokitsukaze
CA Haguro
CA Tone"

I was mistaken on my force disposition... I have the Prince of Wales, 4 CL's and 10 DD's.



I think back to my beginning thoughts - all ships at start (minus the CV's) are considered expendable. I most likely will not get another shot at his ships in the DEI as it's quickly becoming "Netty" covered... and this is the best opportunity to inflict some damage, even if the chance is not as optimal as I'd like.

I've downgraded my chance of success to 30% chance of success - those Jap torpedo's are nasty and I have a gut feeling he's due for a torp hit on one of my ships, and there's always the chance for a pair of BB's to show up.

That percentage change is good enough given all other factors and conditions. Full speed ahead!

Literally, I'm going full speed into the combat hex, with reaction set to zero, I'm getting a decent naval commander to command, and I have a retreat path to Koepang.
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