Notes from a Small Island

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Quantity is a quality all its own...

That is what Joseph Stalin said and it is true. I haven't got that far against the computer since it always quits before the Soviet activation but I think that the best aircraft might be the IL-2/10 with its armor rating of 2. It is very short range but it should be very good for low level attacks.

This is not really my (limited) experience. Armor 2 yes, extremely short range and anemic payload also yes. Still dies in numbers in low level attacks, also yes.

It's that last bit that kills it for me.

[Canoerebel]

2/12/45

Kushiro D+4: My night terrors didn't materialize, but the dizzying, rollicking campaign continues in all its complexities, challenges, and opportunities.

[Canoerebel]

2/12/45

Kushiro D+4: A surprising result at Kushiro today. It's cause for celebration, but the enthusiasm is dampened by the shadow of Japanese fighter superiority.

In the air, the war is flipped. The Japanese are the Allies in 1945, and vice versa.

[Lokasenna]

...what is the DL like on all of your subs?

If my opponent had so many subs sitting there, half of them would already be heading back to base from 250kg bomb damage. I only see a few of yours off to the east and it's hard to tell if they're coming/going/picketing.

[Canoerebel]

Detection levels are nil to low single digits, even for the subs that just moved into the sea between Hokkaido and Honshu.

You're not the first experienced player to look at the "checkerboard" and conclude, "That wouldn't happen if I were the IJ player." Another experienced player made that observation in my game with John III, offering this: "You won't be able to do that against Obvert."

But it's not nearly as vulnerable as it looks. I generally keep my subs just out of detection range, to prevent high losses. Erik usually limits his patrols/ASW flights, to minimize the huge losses he otherwise incurs from Allied CAP. This line of "no detection/no molestation" is fluid. Sometimes my subs nose too far forward.

But this deployment allows me to keep track of enemy detection levels, which is useful info. It also allows me to "flood the zone" at important intervals. Once such was here, as the Allies invaded Kushiro. The ojbective was to give Erik another reason to be cautious with his combat ships. And the presence of DS took a heavy toll on Erik's search craft.

So, temporarily, my subs are further forward than ordinary. They'll pull back a bit soon.

[Canoerebel]

I'm working on D+5 turn now, here in the pre-dawn hours, with a couple of thoughts:

1. The Battle of Kushiro has been decided, barring the (unlikely) possibility that Erik substantially reinforces by sea.
2. Erik probably realizes this. At this point, I his objective may be to seize control of one of the adjacent hexes, evicting all Allied units, so that his Kushiro garrison has a valid path of retreat.
3. The Allies will strongly contest the inland clear hex today, but I think Erik will take control of it today or tomorrow. My bombers will try to savage his army beyond the ability to fight, but enemy fighters are probably too tough and will prevent that from happening.
4. If ERik's Kushiro troops do retreat, that helps me in one case - my troops outside Kushiro will then have a valid path of retreat and won't be subject to destruction.
5. My army at Kushiro is in very good shape after that big attack. The infantry will rest one or two days. A fair bit of the armor will attack again today.
6. Taking Kushiro won't necessarily doom Bihoro. Erik has rail lines and can bring in reinforcements. But they'll be subject to a murderous bombardment, so I don't know if he'll defend there or not.

[Canoerebel]

2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: I have been looking forward to this turn. The Allied plan seemed straightforward, uncomplicated, and likely to play to Allied strengths and to avoid Japanese advantages.

I expected things to unfold something like this:

1. BB Arkansas TF to bombard Kushiro.
2. APD TF to unload some infantry at Kushiro to provoke enemy auto-bombardment.
3. Major Allied sweeps over hex forecast to be massively protected by enemy CAP.
4. Allied 4EB to then hit enemy units in that hex, causing heavy losses and/or disruption.
5. Enemy units in that hex outnumbered mine significantly but might be too disrupted to succeed in attacking.
6. Self-destructive IJ bombardment at Kushiro.
7. Allied armor to attack at Kushiro, keeping the enemy garrison frazzled while Allied infantry took a day of rest.

The turn unfolded just about perfectly. Nothing decisive happened, but the plan survived contact with the enemy and was a good one.

[Canoerebel]

2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: Nothing to brag about here, but the messages (not included below) indicate the major infantry units were targeted by the guns, thus contributing to disruption.

[Canoerebel]

2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: Two APDs bring in some infantry. This is designed to trigger an auto-bombardment. From prior experience, the disablements my guys incur in landing are more than offset by the damage the Japanese will take in bombarding.

As usual, the APDs don't tangle with enemy shore guns.

Most of my APDs are lifting infantry to the clear hex NE of Kushiro.

[Canoerebel]

2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: As expected, Erik posts mega-CAP over his army in the clear hex NW of Kushiro. Weather cooperates, so all Allied fighter squadrons ordered to sweep do so. The morning fights are long and tiring, with the Allies coming out somewhat ahead (LRCAP is the one mission Erik's fighters seem to struggle with). The Japanese CAP will eventually wear down to nothing...and it's then that Allied bombers targeting the ground troops will arrive.

[Canoerebel]

2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: The sudden move by DS entices some enemy strike aircraft to sortie, with predictable results. The same kind of thing happened down in the Andaman Sea, where an RN carrier TF serving a decoy mission drew some unescorted Jake strikes. These one-sided affairs will inflate Erik's aircraft losses on the day, but its the fighters that are key.

[Canoerebel]

2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: A modest number of enemy bombers fly ground-attack missions against my infantry units in the non-base hexes, doing a decent amount of damage. I didn't post CAP, because any enemy sweeps would tear them to shreds, and all my available fighters are sweeping the key central hex.

[Canoerebel]

2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: Erik employs the same strategy, but only a modest number of his bombers target this hex, while I've ordered all-out strikes. I figure my guys will take a whacking, but that his might take more - and his guys are attacking, which can be a real problem if disruption is high.

[Canoerebel]

2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: Allied sweeps having clear the air of opposition, Allied bombers arrive to hit the enemy ground units. The first missions coming in are PBY Liberators and B-24s at 6k. The strikes are effective but not overwhelming, by any means.

This is the largest strike of the day. It, too, is not overwhelming, probably due to altitude (the Superforts are at 22k).

[Canoerebel]

2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: Strong Japanese army manages only a 1:1 against the motley crew of Allied units in this open hex and fail to dislodge them. I think only a part of the enemy army attack (some probably arrived during the turn).

I think we'll have a repeat battle here tomorrow.

The strength of the enemy army here suggests that Erik probably isn't advancing a strong force to the coastal hex, one hex NE of Kushiro. I have a stronger force there; some of those units are making for the contested hex.

[Canoerebel]

2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: Japanese bombardment at Kushiro is markedly self=destructive.

Follow-on attack by four Allied armored battalions also achieves good results. I didn't get a screen capture of the latter,
but the details from the Combat Report:

Ground combat at Kushiro (123,53)
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 17027 troops, 580 guns, 1077 vehicles, Assault Value = 3744
Defending force 58384 troops, 559 guns, 151 vehicles, Assault Value = 1069


Allied adjusted assault: 255
Japanese adjusted defense: 1543

Allied assault odds: 1 to 6 (fort level 5)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), experience(-)

Attacker:
Japanese ground losses:
267 casualties reported
Squads: 25 destroyed, 21 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 12 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 14 (9 destroyed, 5 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 3 (2 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Vehicles lost 73 (3 destroyed, 70 disabled)

[Canoerebel]

2/13/45

Air Losses: A rare air victory for the Allies. My guys were going up against Erik's first team, so this is meaningful.

But, the numbers flatter to deceive. As noted before, Erik's losses are inflated by lesser frames lost mainly in strikes vs. DS and RN DS. The fighter losses are the true indicator of the outcome, and that's pretty much a 1:1 tally.

[Canoerebel]

2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: Here are three representative divisions at Kushiro. The first thing I looked at on opening the file (after Air Losses) was the condition of my ground units. Can they attack tomorrow? Disruption and fatigue are still a bit elevated. I'll likely rest them another day, in the meantime trying to send in more troops via APD and to attack with some armor.

[Canoerebel]

2/13/45

Sub Losses: The Allies have lost two subs in NoPac in the past two months, despite the proximity of so many to the Home Islands. That's a great return on value, because I get a lot of info from those subs - and they're close by in the event I need to/want to "flood the zone," as with the Kushiro invasion.

[Canoerebel]

Weather permitting, tomorrow should be a repeat for the Allies: heavy sweeps of the contested hex, followed by nearly all 4EB (this time all set to 9k). If weather permits, I think damage to the enemy troops should be substantial.

Erik couldn't have liked what happened today, so I think he'll switch up tomorrow. His fighters have been flying alot of sweep and LRCAP missions, so they should be tuckered out. He might even stand many down.