Connect Four Team Game

[weinsoldner]

In turn 8 16th Army captured Velikie Luki. This turn combined forces of AGN and AGC tried to move further to the east, aiming
for Rzehv. Hoping to pocket Soviet forces in the process.

[weinsoldner]

In the South AGS moved further into the bend of the Dnepr.

[weinsoldner]

We are aiming for a Dnepr river ZOC lock

[weinsoldner]

It is not just our Luftwaffe doing a good job. There are also good FLAK results

[weinsoldner]

2,5K lost or damaged. Good result north of Smolensk.

[weinsoldner]

100 tanks lost

[thedoctorking]

Connect 4 AAR, Turn 9

The Axis team carried out their turn in two days, a record, I believe, for any multi-player game I have been in. At this rate, we will soon catch up with the 2by3+ game! Their enthusiasm for the game makes it a pleasure to play against them.

In the air this turn, many Axis bombing missions came in without fighter escort and yet encountered no Soviet fighters, even though they were in range of plenty of our bases. At first, we thought that they had switched over to night missions, and this is a possibility for at least some of their city bombing missions. However, more likely is that the fact that we were running at 300% interception level in our air preferences meant that all our fighters ran out of miles. They encouraged this by running a large number of pointless recon missions that, while they only draw up a few fighters, can still wear down our squadrons when there are hundreds of them. When the Axis ran us out of miles, they stopped sending fighters on their later bombing missions. Maybe they switched all their fighter squadrons to 1 range for their attacks, too – I noticed that some of their combat support air missions were also conducted without escort and met no fighter opposition. We will change the interception percentage for next turn and put a few squadrons of fighters on night missions and see what happens. We have just begun receiving the Pe-3 night fighters and in a few turns can start equipping squadrons with them. Be nice if the Brits would give us some radar sets…

The Axis move to night missions reinforces our sense that we are gaining the upper hand in the air. When I look over the Axis air bases, I see many squadrons with only a dozen or so ready aircraft (out of 40). They are still enthusiastically bombing our cities and airbases, but with fewer numbers each time. This turn, they flew long-range missions to bomb manpower in faraway cities in the Caucasus. This may be practice for city bombing missions against the Volga cities if they advance further – we may have to assign a few air bases to Volga military district and put some fighters back there (they could be newly-formed squadrons with low experience levels). If the Axis advance a little farther, their Do-217, He-111, and SM.79 bombers could reach the Volga. The He-177 long-range bombers could reach there from where they are, although they never get many of them. Again, the longer-ranged Pe-3’s could do some good here.

Their strategic bombing missions were more annoying than effective though. Their biggest success was putting the Lagg-3 factory in Taganrog up to 10% damage. If it gets up into the 25% range, we can just evacuate it to the east – it will probably have to go sometime anyway. We put a couple of fighter squadrons back by Voronezh this turn and the city bombing raids ended there.

On the ground, their northern front forces continued pressure against our front north of Pskov and in eastern Estonia, while the armored divisions of 4th Panzer Group moved south to join Army Group Center’s drive on Rzhev. The motorized divisions of 4th PG remained immobile in the Lovat River swamps and may have benefitted from a headquarters buildup. A corps of 16th Army has moved into this region, either to support a 4th PG push to the north or to substitute if the motorized units are being redeployed southwards.

[thedoctorking]

We responded to the threat of a northwards push by thickening our defenses in the region south of Lake Ilmen. With such a small motorized group, and no panzers, it doesn’t appear they could go far even if they have a lot of movement points – they would just get cut off or have to disperse into regiments that we could easily counterattack. We moved into the last stage of the unmixing of North and Northwest Fronts as 7th Independent Army, down from the Finnish Front, takes over the Narva line from NW Front’s 8th Army. Elements of 24th Army, a STAVKA army, are still in the front line in the Pola/Lovat region, but are being replaced by NW Front units.

[thedoctorking]

To the south, 4th Panzer Group’s armored divisions pushed into the southern hills region along the Velikie Luki-Torzhok rail line without making any attacks. One of our strongpoints was nearly isolated but the attack did not come close to making contact with 3rd Panzer Group’s salient coming from the south. A light screen of 16th Army’s infantry covered 4th PG’s northern flank, with several divisions of that army unaccounted for. Possibly, 16th is displacing to the north to replace or support 4th PG there. 9th Army is massed against Reserve Front between the two armored salients. 3rd Panzer Group extended its push to the north, while its southern flank continued to be held by light screening forces from 4th Army. Elements of 2nd Army, visible in this sector last turn, have once again gone underground – perhaps lousy reconnaissance by our forces or perhaps they are moving south to support 2nd PG in the Gomel-Chernigov region.

[thedoctorking]

In the land bridge region, we adopted a defensive posture, making local counterattacks and withdrawing our overextended forces south of the Velikie Luki-Rzhev rail line. Two divisions remained behind, one on either side of the salient, to choke supply deliveries for the next turn. A new STAVKA army, 49th, was created to cover the crossings of the Volga north of Rzhev. Zhukov’s 13th Army extended Western Front’s area of operations several hexes to the north, freeing Reserve Front forces to thicken their lines to the north. With one and a half Panzer Groups operating here, and another just to the south in the Gomel area, we judge the center the most imperiled part of our line and most reinforcements are directed here. Hopefully, our deployment will encourage the Axis to continue their push towards the Volga, leaving our defenses behind the upper Dnepr and around Vyazma to grow stronger.

[thedoctorking]

To the south, 2nd Panzer Group burst out of the swamps and achieved the pocket that we had been fearing. They isolated 33rd and most of 16th Army. There are several unidentified infantry units behind the German front north of Gomel. These may be the 2nd Army units we saw along the front to the north last turn, signaling a significant Axis effort in this sector. Luckily, the pocket was not tightly closed, being held with a thin line of panzer regiments that we could brush aside with ease. Between there and Kiev, 6th Army continued it slow advance through the swamps.

[thedoctorking]

This attack took place at the junction between Center and South regions’ areas of operation. Thus, Isaac and I had to coordinate our activities. In fact, I took tactical control of the divisions inside the pocket – 33rd Army being in my command and 16th in Isaac’s. What I didn’t get was the information that his attack needed the support of one division from inside the pocket to establish isolation of the forward German armored force. So I used the more effective units inside the pocket in an attack against one of the regiments closing the circle while the other divisions fled through the hole thereby created. So, instead of isolating three divisions, we only got one regiment. Oops. To the north of the breakthrough, 10th Army moved most of its strength south and broke the pocket on their side, while 3rd spread out into blocking positions to the north. Two good divisions remain in the pocket and are probably doomed, while the Germans should have severe supply problems next turn despite not being completely isolated.

[thedoctorking]

Along the middle Dnepr from Kiev to Dnepropetrovsk, our defenses were solid. German 17th Army did make a one-hex crossing downriver from Kiev, but without armored support, can’t make it into a major pocketing move.

[thedoctorking]

We strengthened our defenses around their crossing and sent powerful reinforcements south where the action was. We managed to resist the temptation of counterattacks against the weak odds and sods that faced us around Cherkassy. Five divisions remain in the city of Kiev, on the logic that the Axis will have to attack them or be ZOC’ed by them as they advance. We have plenty of bombers and transports to keep them supplied even if they do get cut off.

[thedoctorking]

And finally, in the southern Ukraine in front of Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye, the mass of 1st Panzer Group’s mobile forces continued their sweep. Three of our armored divisions were surrounded along the Bazavlik River. This attack suffered from a lack of infantry support, however, as the flanks were held by Romanians and Hungarians, along with a scattering of 11th Army units.

[thedoctorking]

We decided on a very aggressive posture in this region, taking advantage of the relative weakness of German infantry. Bobkin’s 18th Army attacked from the south, while Koniev’s 19th Army pushed across the river from the north. We were able to break into the armored pocket in both cases, despite these fine leaders failing their attack rolls in both cases. We have come to the realization that, if we want to win, we need to bring 3:1 or 4:1 in visible CV in order to achieve a victory, even taking into consideration the +1 attack advantage. These attacks left our attacking units exposed in vulnerable positions, especially at the southern end where most attackers had to cross a major river and move through swamps. The Germans have a bit of firepower in the form of several German infantry divisions and a few mobile units outside the pocket, and so will be able to drive across the river next turn if they wish. There is a large concentration of German air power in the southern region, back behind Nikolaev. There are also three FBD rail repair units working in this area. Both of these circumstances suggest that the Axis hasn’t given up on the idea of a major breakthrough in the south.

[thedoctorking]

Total losses this turn were 25,477 Axis to 116,727 for us. Air losses were 151 Axis to 737 Soviet. Their lower air losses reflect our confusion about interception levels. They only lost 54 level bombers. They did lose 36 fighters, above replacement levels. Total deployed manpower is 5,015,748 Axis (3,415,459 German) to 4,122,300 for us. Deployed aircraft are 2,453 German to 5,552 Soviet. All in all, this was an OK turn. They are making steady progress, but, I would say, not quick enough to gain their major objectives before the weather closes in.

By the way, readers: This turn's AAR followed a different format - I covered Axis moves in each sector and then immediately showed our response. Does this make sense to you? Or do you prefer the broad coverage of Axis dispositions followed by a region-by-region discussion of our moves?

I have attached the intel spreadsheet for those interested. As you can see, we are still working out who is in which army, especially in areas like the south where formations are intermingled.

[thedoctorking]

My sense, though, is that the intel spreadsheet is a valuable resource and totally worth the hour or so each turn it takes to enter the data. In a one-on-one game I'm playing I have been burned several times for big pockets because I wasn't keeping careful track of Axis strength and supply status. In this game, on the other hand, we are generally pretty much right on in our understanding of where the Axis is strong. We are still working on getting a good understanding of how deeply they can strike. Translating supply status into an estimate of how many movement points the unit will have next turn would be a valuable element if I could figure out how to calculate it.

[Erzac]

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking

However, more likely is that the fact that we were running at 300% interception level in our air preferences meant that all our fighters ran out of miles. They encouraged this by running a large number of pointless recon missions that, while they only draw up a few fighters, can still wear down our squadrons when there are hundreds of them. When the Axis ran us out of miles.

The reason your fighters stopped flying wasn't due to any recon maneuvers. Instead, I'm very certain the Red Army had it's required to fly percentage set to 50% at the time. All fighter groups in the area were hammered under 50% strength and thus stopped flying. This in turn allowed the unescorted bombing flights.

And that turn also inspired... this:
Skyfall Ostfront

[thedoctorking]

Half right: