Notes from a Small Island

[GetAssista]

ORIGINAL: crsutton
I think you will find that as long as supply has flowed into the economy, the Japanese player can produce aircraft and never run short. Pilots do not seem to be an issue either. My last campaign concluded on 8/45 with my opponents pools full of aircraft and high quality pilots. But I played to shut of his oil and he had nothing left as far as supply goes. If you did not cut off the flow of supple from the DEI, you are still going to win, but you will just have to do some more grinding to get there.

It all comes to the quality of the airframes. Japan can stock on middle war airframes in the pools, and the likes of George/Frank-a/Zero A6M5x/Tojos may never run out indeed. However, it is not possible to produce a healthy stock of later war airframes because Japan just doesn't have enough time between the moment research ends and the heat starts. And it is those planes (Sam/Frank-r/Ki-83/Shinden) that are the most competitive in the air. Bombing those factories is essential for reducing Japan's CAP strength.
If Japan had unlimited supply for repairs, bombing out a 30-size factory would prevent the production of ~15 airframes cumulatively and the factory would've been back online in a month. But Japan does not have that supply in 45, and usually chooses to not repair in the view of future bombings. This means minus 30 modern planes a month forever. With the scale of late war air battles, it can add up real quick

P.S. Also, in my favourite AAR of all times Nemo scolded GreyJoy exactly for that - not concentrating his 4Es against Rader's fighter factories [:D]

[Canoerebel]

One of the challenges of the game, when keeping an AAR, is receiving and evaluating comments from Ye Peanut Gallery. Oftentimes, the advice/input can be contradictory. In my early years, the contradictions were very hard to resolve, because I didn't have enough experience to judge who might be right or wrong on a particular issue. I have much more experience now, but the gaps in my knowledge about the Japanese economy and production still leave me uncertain about important things.

Here I seem to be getting two different messages: (1) forget it - the Japanese economy has had far too much time and freedom to bring in resources/fuel; you'll never be able to really hamper fighter production at this late date; and (2) the draw on supply is so great for Japan that Erik doesn't have unlimited fighter production and might be on the verge of collapse even as we speak.

Based upon what I do know, I think the truth probably lies closer to (1), in part because Erik is such a gifted player. He knows how to maximize things and will have taken full advantage of everything he can. I doubt he's anywhere close to exhausting good fighter frames and pilots. I think the Allies would run out of fighters and bombers long before Erik would. I think I can fatally cripple the Allies by pursuing any kind of sustained air campaign that yields less than 2:1 or 3:1 return on the investment.

To this point, bombing Erik's key industry (fighters, engines) has been woefully disadvantageous. He knows where to position his AA and night fighters (and day fighters). This results in heavy, heavy losses to the Superforts - far beyond what meager hits are scored. If I started today to target those industries, I think I'd lose 50 4EB for each hit scored. In a month, I'd have no 4EB left and Erik's fighter production would be barely impacted.

If the balance of the campaign for Bihoro goes well, I have some ideas for strategic bombing to try out. It should offer some improvement, but Erik will adjust fast before the Allies accomplish anything major.

In the meantime, all kinds of things will be going on that may offer clues as to whehter Erik is or isn't hurting, and I'll make adjustments if opportunities seem to arise. If the air war remains as is, there are major plans in the medium term to open up new fronts.

Regarding the Kuriles, those remaining islands have to be taken. Erik knows how to use them to cause all kinds of havoc, and has done so from time to time. But once they are taken, the Allies have a largely open LOC between Shikuka and the Aluetians/West Coast. That's a tremendous advantage. My troops are fully prepped or are prepping for each base, and I don't think the five invasions will cost much or take long.

[Canoerebel]

2/19/45

Kushiro wrapped up yesterday, but the ground campaign in Hokkaido is complex and interesting. And today's air war was about as decisively in favor of the Allies as possible. I think the results are lopsided enough that I could continue under these conditions, but in a few turns, Erik's army will leave the contested hex, so he'll be able to stop his LRCAP disadvantage. I doubt he'll voluntarily step into another such arrangement.

Bihoro: The slow-BB bombardments never touch Bihoro's airfield, probably because Erik has stiff shore guns stationed here. They do hit the ground troops, which aren't particularly strong. I'll keep this up and add more oomph, because I'm hoping Erik will decide Bihoro isn't defensible. I hope he decides that, because I may have serious issues if he leans the other way. So he'll probably lean the other way.

[Canoerebel]

2/19/45

Contested Hex: The first Allied sweepers are F4U-1As from Death Star. Nearly 500 enemy fighters are posted over the hex - the most I've seen in about four or five days. I don't know if my sweepers can handle such large numbers, given the results of the past two days, when they couldn't handle 250 fighters. So I'm already worried about the 4EB - they're coming in without escorts today.

[Canoerebel]

2/19/45

Contested Hex: Another sweep from Death Star. Sometimes, the F4U-1D doesn't perform as well as the -1C, but not this time.

[Canoerebel]

2/19/45

Contested Hex: Usually Hellcats are chewed up by good enemy land-based fighters, but not when those land-based fighters are on LRCAP missions. Even the much-maligned P-38L can score well against the finest enemy fighters on LRCAP.

[Canoerebel]

2/19/45

Contested Hex: Hellcats score a 2:1 victory against good enemy fighters, though the sample size is small. The problem is this: when Ops losses are factored in, 2:1 victories often turn into 1.2:1 victories, but my fighter pools are thin while Erik's are (seemingly, from my perspective as beleaguered Allied player) nearly inexaustible.

[Canoerebel]

2/19/45

Contested Hex: Good -1Ds from Death Star score an astounding 15:1 victory. In past weeks, these kind of results often seem to "fall apart" under the cold, hard light of day. It's then, when I look at the Air Losses table and at my fighter pools, that the lament becomes, "I cannot afford another such victory!"

[Canoerebel]

2/19/45

Contested Hex: Another solid win. The weather cooperated wonderfully, allowing DS fighters to sweep first, before the Army fighters and before the bombers come in. The enemy CAP is now noticeably reduced. To this point, DS has contributed less than 200 fighters (I think), but they've done great work. I hope Erik takes note that it's only a small percentage of DS fighters. I don't want him to get bold tomorrow, because I want to try something a bit unusual.

[Canoerebel]

2/19/45

Contested Hex: The first land-based sweep does pretty well. But Death Star's fighters did an excellent job - 120 of them sortied. By the time they were finished, enemy fighter CAP had diminished from nearly 500 fighters to 130.

[Canoerebel]

2/19/45

Contested Hex: Thunderbolts arrive to find just 101 fighters on CAP. They do a good job but not a spectacular one.

[Canoerebel]

2/19/45

Contested Hex: 74 enemy fighters on CAP at the start of this sweep.

[Canoerebel]

2/19/45

Contested Hex: 9 Thunderbolts take on 51 fighters on CAP, scoring a 9:1 victory. No question now: Allied bombers aren't going to blunder into heavy, fresh enemy CAP.

[Canoerebel]

2/19/45

Contested Hex: Enemy CAP has dwindled to 23.

[Canoerebel]

2/19/45

Contested Hex: Lightnings down half of the remaining dozen.


That's it for enemy CAP. Lots more sweepers to come - including Mustangs - but the skies will be clear.

[Canoerebel]

2/19/45

Contested Hex: The first Allied bombers find no remaining opposition over the hex and score well but not decisively. This raid was at 8k. I may drop the bombers to 5k tomorrow, as enemy AA is badly disrupted/disabled.

[Canoerebel]

2/19/45

Contested Hex: The Superforts also score well. There are so many targets in this hex that Allied bombers are still mostly scoring disablements rather than "destroyed." I don't know if enough time remains to change that before the enemy army leaves the hex.

Many more small raids occur before and after this one, scoring in relatively small numbers that cumulatively add to the carnage.

I don't know if Erik will continue to put up LRCAP. I do know I'm going to change my model a bit tomorrow, in hopes of springing an ambush while still focusing on his army and LRCAP.

[Anachro]

Damn, those are some nice bombing results, but perhaps not unusual in late game. The carnage evokes in my mind images of the famous "Highway of Death" from the gulf war.

[Canoerebel]

2/19/45

Bihoro: Oops, Erik mistimed an attack to the moment the Allied infantry came up.

[Canoerebel]

2/19/45

Kushiro D+11: Limited Allied attack tears into worn-out enemy troops.

Just prior to combat, the movie showed Allied AA damaging and downing a lot of Emilys. I think these were squadrons pulling out troops over the past week or so. By doing this Erik saved a lot of troops and points but hastened the fall of the base.