Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

Loka, I agree. Unfortunately, that probably doesn't apply here. This army landed in a non-base hex and is heavy on combat squads and light on arty and AA guns. It'll be more prone to taking damage than usual. I do think it's large enough to absorb a lot of punishment without veering into dangerous "destroyed" territory, but I'll have to monitor that...and keep Death Star ready, if needed.

[Canoerebel]

2/24/45

NoPac: Today is the eve of the invasion of Paramushiro. At Hokkaido, Allied fighters and bombers test some new tactics, trying to find targets protected by 2nd tier enemy fighters. It was pretty successful. And Erik's bombers tear into defenseless Allied units outside Kushiro, but on this particular day he used a lot of firepower against small units, while leaving my larger stacks alone. Tomorrow will be a different story, I'm sure.

[Canoerebel]

2/24/45

SEAC: A rare post from a theater other than NoPac, as a major Allied invasion to take place tomorrow.

This is about a month ahead of schedule. I've been steaming invasion TFs in the Andaman Sea, back and forth, up and down, trying to keep Erik interested in the area and eventually lulling him into the idea that it was all a ruse to draw him down this way.

He's taken notice, ramped up patrols and recon, and posted some fighters that got chewed up by Allied sweeps.

I planned to continue this for another month unless I got what seemed like an opening. Today, the Allied invasion TFs steamed to within four hexes of the invasion target (Mergui) without apparent strong response.

I think it's 50/50 that a KB is in this area, but I came up with a plan that I think works while risking an acceptable number ofgood ships. The enemy garrison at Mergui is pretty small. The Allied invasion force is large. It will proceed to the beaches with relatively light cover (mainly, four CVEs). If enemy carriers aren't available, I don't think Erik will commit bombers in large numbers, due to fears of a CAP trap. IF carriers are here, he'll throw everything he has at my ships. I'll lose a bunch that I'm willing to lose in exchange for seizing a forward base that (may) unhinge his defenses in the Rangoon area.

Allied light infantry will also land a hex N of Mergui, to prevent rapid reinforcement via the good coastal road. No rail serves Mergui.

[Canoerebel]

I'm in negotiations with another long-time player to start a new game. I started casting around about a week ago, looking for indications that an old-timer might be it he market. I think I found one, though we haven't finalized things yet. The game with Obvert is getting late enough, and its tempo has slowed enough, that it seems like a good time to start a new match. It's been six years since I last started a 12/7/41 game.

[Canoerebel]

2/25/45

This is D-Day for important invasions of Paramushiro and Mergui. I'm about to learn that my hunches were on target - that I have been basing my plans on solid information....but that I sometimes forget important details in the execution. IE, this game has a powerful way of reminded me of my limitations, even when I think things are unrolling marvelously.

Paramushiro: Another tepid Allied naval bombardment.

[Canoerebel]

2/25/45

Mergui: This TF doesn't have spotter planes but does pretty well - no shore gun opposition and probably not uber forts. The only enemy unit identified is a mixed regiment. Recon showed whatever is here has few guns, so I'm not anticipating a big fight.

[Canoerebel]

2/25/45

Asahikawa: A modest number of 4EB and 2EB target this airfield and resources. Six Irvings were on CAP, disrupting the first small inbound raids, which did no damage. This and later ones did modest damage. Also, a few B-29 squadrons didn't get reset (my first "oops" of the turn) and scored a few manpower hits at Hakodate.

[Canoerebel]

2/25/45

Mergui: The first of many amphibious TFs arrives at the beachhead. There are no enemy shore guns to speak of, and no enemy combat TFs, mines or subs. The landings seem to go well. The key, here, is to get as many troops ashore as possible in case KB arrives to ravage the fleet. The enemy garrison seems small, so a good opening landing may be sufficient even if my ships get clobbered.

[Canoerebel]

2/25/45

Uruppu Sweep: Mindful of the opportunity cost discussion yesterday, I think results like this are acceptable or favorable. This may be Erik's best fighter going up against a variety of Allied fighters. The Mustangs are a newly arrived squadron with decent but not elite pilots. I hope to get a feel for what he's doing so that, later, I can cross him up by bringing in squadrons that can perform better. But right now they're getting some much-needed rest.

[Canoerebel]

2/25/45

Outside Kurshiro: Again, Erik uses lots of his best fighters to sweep over the Allied units outside Kushiro. He's expecting me to post LRCAP, which his sweepers would likely chew up, but I didn't. Instead, the Allied fighters and bombers are mostly focusing on Asahikawa industry today, if weather permits.

[Canoerebel]

2/25/45

Asahikawa: Weather does permit. Allied sweepers find no opposition over this industrial hex. The bombers should follow.

[Canoerebel]

2/25/45

Mergui Strikes: Erik has strike aircraft in range and set to strike....but, wait, where is my CAP? Where are my CVEs? This kind of strike would be manageable (I think). I have four CVEs that are supposed to be in this hex. They can put up 100 fighters, staggered from 8k to 20k...but they aren't here.

Eventually, I'm going to figure out that I failed to detach the CVE TF and to give it orders to steam to the beach hex. I set everything else (CAP%, range, etc.) but overlooked the fact that the TF does have to go to the beach if I want it to go to the beach. Instead, it is still following along with the fleet CVs.

As a result of this oversight, a lot of enemy strikes (and they are mostly manageable, I think) come in and do a fair bit of damage.

On the plus side, the damage occurs after the bulk of Allied troops come ashore and is mostly to low-value shipping (excepting some nice LSI(L)s).

I don't think I'll post the long list of enemy strikes and damage - or perhaps I'll do it in consolidated fashion - but I think, overall, the Allies achieve the main goal - to land a large army at acceptable cost.

[Canoerebel]

2/25/45

Mergui: Ah, what the heck. I guess I ought to show all of the enemy strikes. I enjoy posting when a series of Allied strikes are successful, so "what's good for the goose..."

[Canoerebel]

2/25/45

Mergui: Oops, I've been posting sync bug version of the action at Mergui. My analysis/commentary has been accurate, but not the bombing results.

So, scratch those last two posts and let me correct the record this way:

During the morning phase, I don't think there were any strikes vs. Allied shipping at Mergui. There was, however, a strike against low-value shipping carrying paratroops to the hex to the NE (a non-base hex, for a blocking position). I don't know if any troops got ashore before their transports were sunk. I lost some good paratroops but the shipping wasn't much.

In the afternoon, this is the first strike to hit shipping at Mergui. As noted previously, my CVEs are not present due to operator error.

[Canoerebel]

2/25/45

Mergui: The remaining strikes against Mergui shipping.

I lost some valuable ships (LSI(L)), and all ships are useful, but overall this is an acceptable cost since I was wiling to risk the four CVEs and ended up not doing so (uh, operator error).

[Canoerebel]

2/25/45

Near Tavoy: I think this is the TF carrying the paratroops to the non-base hex NE of Mergui, but now I'm not sure. It looks like more than simply a contingent of paratroops. I'll know for certain later, when I open the turn file.

[Canoerebel]

2/25/45

Asahikawa: It has been rare for Allied 4EB to get an open shot at enemy industry, like these.

[Canoerebel]

2/25/45

Paramushiro: The amphibious TF only had four hexes to go, but doesn't arrive and begin unloading until the PM phase. The TF includes a lot of LCI gunships. This part of the landing looks good.

[Canoerebel]

2/25/45

Paramushiro: This part looks awful! Disablements are through the rough. Winter conditions are still in, but based upon my previous test at Shimishura, which corroborated Lokasenna's analysis, I thought that this would be rather negligible.

This is bad stuff. The enemy garrison is (I think) fairly small and should be subject to disruption via bombing, bombardment and (possibly) future auto-bombardments due to follow-up landings. So maybe my army, tattered as it seems to be, can handle this. But...yikes.

[Canoerebel]

2/25/45

Paramushiro: Sorta apocalyptic-looking. I hope Allied AV turns out to be considerably higher than this when I open the turn file.