Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

3/6/45

Shasukotan: A stout naval bombardment to open the day. It's relatively uncommon for my big bombardment TFs to score against well-dug-in enemy units protected by shore guns.

[Canoerebel]

3/6/45

Shasukotan: Allied 2EB and 4EB effectively targeted enemy ground units here. This is the first and largest of the raiding groups.

[Canoerebel]

3/6/45

Shasukotan: Abetted by the strong bombardment and bombing, the Allied attack does well, knocking down forts, achieving 2:1 odds, and taking light losses. The Allied army will attack again tomorrow, reinforced by a fresh tank battalion. A big combat engineer brigade will land tomorrow, triggering another enemy auto-bombardment.

[Canoerebel]

3/6/45

Tavoy: Allied DD TF bombardments seem to do proportionally better than big TFs, even against well-dug-in defenses.

This is another in a series of bombardments meant to weaken enemy resistance. The Allied army will attack at the end of the day.

[Canoerebel]

3/6/45

Tavoy: Despite attacking at atrocious odds, the Allied army inflicts higher casualties and takes light casualties. The enemy garrison is weak and ripe for plucking, but 106th Div. is just two or three days out. I'm weighing whether to pull back and then direct my army down the peninsula or whether to fight here.

P.S. I think I caught wind of any enemy carrier force on the move, just east of Mindanao. It could be heading for the DEI to "restore order" or to ambush the RN carrier force...or it could be heading somewhere else of interest. I'll try to allow for it to should up anywhere within range.

[Canoerebel]

3/6/45

Rangoon: Erik succeeded in withdrawing without molestation, delivering this important base to the Allies. It's "at long last," but I still have mixed feelings about pushing the buttons that prompted Erik to withdraw. I'm not sure that was in my best interest, long term.

Still, there are many important uses that can be made of this base.

I think Erik will withdraw from the this MLR entirely, perhaps making a stand at Moulmein.

[Canoerebel]

3/6/45

Near Pegu: I seldom order attacks under these circumstances (big enemy army, well-dug-in, jungle terrain) but thought Erik might be retiring from this hex. I think I was most fortunate to achieve a 1:1 here.

[Canoerebel]

3/6/45

Sapporo: This effective little DD bombardment actually occurred near the start of the turn. I'm hoping Erik will think twice about posting CAP here, allowing me to target his industry.

Allied sweeps and a small strat bombing raid were scrubbed by bad weather. A nighttime strike on the airfield by RAF bombers wasn't effective.

[Capt. Harlock]

Near Pegu: I seldom order attacks under these circumstances (big enemy army, well-dug-in, jungle terrain) but thought Erik might be retiring from this hex. I think I was most fortunate to achieve a 1:1 here.

A nice harvest of vehicles especially!

[Canoerebel]

3/7/45

Shasukotan: The Allies take this base on their second attack. The reserve - 5th Australian Division down at Uruppu - switches prep and will embark on ships tonight, the first of many units that will be retrieved from the "front" and posted at Shikuka until The Next Next Big Thing is ready to go, in a month or so.

Erik is withdrawing the garrisons from the lowest two Kuriles, Shikotan and Kunashiri. One is down to 4k, the other at 20k. The Allies have one division prepping for each. That should be sufficient, given the "catcher's indifference."

Allied AV and prep at Paramushiro should allow an attack in two weeks or so. I don't think reinforcements will be necessary.

That leaves only Onnekotan Jima. The division prepped for that base is at Toyohora, so must be withdrawn for that operation.

The objective is to clean up the Kuriles by the end of March, so that the next big op can get underway by early April.

[Canoerebel]

3/7/45

Andaman Sea: Erik sends a lot of strike aircraft against RN Death Star in the Andaman Sea. He loses 200 in exchange for one kamikaze hit on an RN BB - it takes out an AA mount.

Now that he has complete information about the makeup of Allied CAP over this carrier force (less then 200 fighters, augmented by some LRCAP from Port Blair), I'm going to pull the ships back. If I was Erik, I'd probably load up all of my airfields to strive for a knockout punch. But Erik will be cautious, probably - he's lost 500 aircraft in the past three turns for basically no return.

[Canoerebel]

3/7/45

Victoria Point: I got lucky here. Erik was focused on offense and had no CAP over this big airfield. Allied sweeps and escorts were unnecessary - the 2EB scored fairly well in a series of strikes.

[Canoerebel]

3/7/45

Points and Air Losses: The flip of Rangoon and other recent events have brought about a decent surge in Allied victory points. Erik's lead is under 7k now. But that's still a good score for Japan in March 1945.

[Canoerebel]

3/7/45

NoPac: Barring surprises, the Kuriles campaign appears to be winding down. There are a number of tasks to be completed over the next few weeks. While those are taking place, troops are prepping and the air force is looking for likely ways to hit industrial targets or to take on enemy fighters on favorable terms (that may be the most important thing I can do).

As for the bigger picture, the Allies will be picking up and moving to the other side of Japan in about four to six weeks, to open up new fronts and seek new opportunities. This move is meant to dovetail with Allied activities elsewhere, including even the eventual activation of Russia.

Things are heating up in SEAC now. I think Erik may send his carrier this way. Even the threat of that will keep me conservative until I have enough carriers of my own to balance the threat. But progress will be made, with the ultimate objective Singapore.

I'm about to open up things in the Pacific, a bit, but I'm debating the merits of the plan. I have a small army - mostly Kiwi, Aussie and American RCT and brigades - set for targets like Truk and Marcus. These will help secure LOCs and forward listening posts. And there are high-value targets deeper, like the Marianas. SigInt just reported Tinian has a garrison of just 3k. So there are nice possibilities here, and Allied moves would help evnetually isolated Japan from the DEI.

Counterbalancing that is the big need for garrison units in NoPac. When the Allies pick up and move to the other side of Japan, I'll have fifteen or so bases that have to withstand the threat of enemy assault - not long term, but long enough to discourage Erik from taking major action. I know some bases will require division level garrisons (Kushiro, Wakkanai, Toyohara, Shikuka and maybe one of the Kuriles). But the other bases would benefit from RCTs or Commonwealth brigades. So the units currently assigned to CenPac ops could be put to good use up here. So I'm currently weighing the benefits of CenPac campaign (plus the risk of blundering into a KB) against the benefits of additional security in NoPac.

Always a balancing act.

[Canoerebel]

3/8/45

NoPac: This was an ugly day for the Allied air force. Sweepers and bombers came mostly in separate phases against Sendai, meaning the bombers got handled pretty roughly. And Ki-83s swept in numbers against second tier Allied fighters protecting shipping over Uruppu.

I'll make further adjustments to my strategic bombing parameters. I think there is a place for daytime bombing, but only against bases in which I'm sure the sweeps will handle the CAP, while also coinciding with the bombers (that means bombers and sweepers must originate from the same base).

[Canoerebel]

3/8/45

Air Losses: A 2:1 Japanese victory today. The Japanese air force is strong enough that Allied expectations are fairly low, but I think long term the Allies can fight at roughly 1.25:1 or 1.33:1. That ratio would increase once Erik commits his kamis and strike aircraft in huge numbers. That could be months from now.

More than 80 of the Allied losses were "expendables" - protecting Allied shipping at forward bases where I prefer not to expose more valuable frames and pilots to massed sweeps. Here the expendables covered Uruppu shipping for more than a week without suffering attack, but the charade ended today, the last day that CAP was needed (5th Aus. Div. had just completed loading and the transports left the base during the turn).

[Canoerebel]

3/8/45

SEAC: Short-term, I don't expect to make much progress on my own in this theater. What progress to be made will be because Erik perceives threats to his flank, prompting him to pull back.

[Canoerebel]

3/8/45

CenPac: The Allies are prepared to make noise here...or to quietly leave. It's a complicated picture that I hope will clear over the next few turns.

[zuluhour]

forgot to mention, kudos on the use of DS to CAP the LCUs. Absolutely never thought of that. LRCAP would not have been nearly as effective.

[Canoerebel]

3/8/45

CenPac: Part of the search for the mythical (or not mythical) Loch Ness KB that might be (or might not be) closing on Truk.

I rarely set search arcs - usually, 360 degrees works just fine. Exceptions are made when it helps avoid CAP concentrations or when a particular vector is of far more interest than other directions..