Mushrooms over Maizuru: Chickenboy (J) vs. AcePylut (A)

[rustysi]

If you get two good hits that show a route being taken by a convoy or a USN task force over two days it can be very useful, especially 1941-42

I don't disagree, but I've never had that, or I missed it.[:(]

[AcePylut]

I should have decent search coverage over the avenues of approach into the DEI, the KB is far away gallivanting around the South Pacific, and I'll be out of range of IJ LBA at my "disband bases". It's all good discussion, but I don't really know the IJ SigInt capabilities, I just know it sucks compared to the Allies capabilities.

New turn is in… along with some interesting developments.

#1: An IJ sub about 10 hexes off of Pearl put a torp into a DD I converted to an AVD, and my AVD is now 20,000 feet under the ocean. A 4 DD ASW tf has been dispatched to deal with this evil submarine.

#2: An AVG CAP Trap worked again. I downed about 10-15 garbage bombers targeting a unit 1 hex east of Canton. My unit made it to Canton just in time to defend against another Deliberate Attack. The IJ attack came off at 1-2 odds – so I think I’ll have Canton shut down for at least another week or two. My AVG groups are ordered to stand down and recover fatigue.

#3: A lone IJ Tank Regiment crossed the Singapore River and promptly got routed. I would like this think that this was just a “missed mouse click mistake” by CB in forgetting to stop his movement… but it would be more prudent for me to believe this was a scouting expedition to see what I have at Singapore.

#4: An IJ Stack of 6! Infantry Divisions attacked 3 Chinese Corps at Wenchow and dropped forts to 1, but the adjusted AV was pretty good in my favor, the attack came off at 1-2.

#5: Main Body, we’ve spotted enemy carriers. The KB and a stack of numerous SCTF’s is 5 hexes west of Suva. I’m guessing the IJ 4tH ID is continuing its tour of South Pacific Islands and inbound to Suva. I’ve given the green light to send my transports to Tab and unload myself an INF Regiment. Other reinforcements are about 2 weeks out. I’ll take a look around OZ and see what restricted units I have (I do have a few) and see if I can’t launch a couple of counter-invasions “on the cheap” of some of the other islands recently conquered.

#6: My DEI CV Raiding force is on the march. I’ve sent a few B17 squads and Cat squads to Darwin. They will stand down a turn, then depart to various islands in the DEI for search duties.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

I don't really know the IJ SigInt capabilities, I just know it sucks compared to the Allies capabilities.

It really, really sucks. Here's my most recent intel from my game:

SIG INT REPORT FOR Dec 01, 43

Radio transmissions detected at Sydney (90,167).
Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at Rockhampton (95,152).
Radio transmissions detected at Mili (136,121).
Radio transmissions detected at Seattle (212,52).
Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at Noumea (115,160).
Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at Vava'u (141,165).

That's the norm. Very rarely (maybe a couple times a year for me) I'll get intel that a TF is at a location. Nothing about its composition, just that it's there.

[AcePylut]

Thanks, I like to hear that! I've never really factored the IJ SIgInt as anything worthwhile, guess I was right. Just need to beware of long range search planes and the odd Glen I-boat.

[Mike Solli]

You can pretty much calculate where the search planes can reach. But, those Glens are the best thing since sliced bread. They can find you anywhere!

[AcePylut]

Well hellfire and damnation... another turn is in the books.

I guessed right, the Imperial Japanese 4th Infantry Division is making a tour of the South Pacific. It was disembarked at the base to the west of Suva. I do have a couple of unrestricted Inf regiments of various denominations around Perth. I'm sending one over to Sydney. It will load on transports and seek to counter-invade some of the recently lost South Pacific bases. Chickenboy can't have reinforced all of those bases, yet.

Near Wenchow, I had routed a sub to try and get a pot shot in that BB, CL, DD tf that's been bombarding every other turn.... my SS will be in place in 2 more turns at the most. I setup an AVG captrap in Wenchow this turn, lets see how it fairs.

By the way, the BB Hiei (apparently sunk by 2 Dutchie SStorps about a month ago) still shows as being sunk. Lets hope this is real and not FOW.

[AcePylut]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

You can pretty much calculate where the search planes can reach. But, those Glens are the best thing since sliced bread. They can find you anywhere!

I"ve got three subs near Marcus Island that are "sitting there" checking DL levels. So far, they've shown no DL levels, so no search aircraft are protecting this route. That means, in 1 more turn, when my Marine Raider unit arrives at San Fran, it will embark and head to Marcus to take this island for the Allies. About 4-5 turns before the unit invades, I'll stick a sub on the base and see if it develops any recon on possible LCU units

[BBfanboy]

The sunk ships list for large ships can take six months, sometimes more, to be corrected or confirmed. I think the ones over six months are in the yards and when they reappear you get the un-sunk message. Two torps would not usually be enough to sink BB Hiei, but a series of very bad die rolls during the ship repair phases could have let the flooding run away. Just doesn't seem likely.

[AcePylut]

6 months for confirmation? I thought it was 60 days for confirmation. Dang, now I'll be left hanging for at least 5 more months instead of 1 more month. The Hiei was hit in the DEI, about 10 hexes from Peleliu, and I didn't see her after she supposedly went down by either search (and we know how well the Dutchies spot ships lol) or sub, so I have more "hope" than usual that she's sunk. If she's still afloat, I'd bet she's still in Peleliu repairing as much damage as possible before the return to the Home Islands shipyards, so perhaps I should run a few recon missions over the base and see if it either spots a BB in port, or generates a "ship not sunk" message.

In a previous game, I've lost a modern US BB from one sub torp, 1 hex from a West Coast Port, so I know they can go down.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

You can pretty much calculate where the search planes can reach. But, those Glens are the best thing since sliced bread. They can find you anywhere!

I"ve got three subs near Marcus Island that are "sitting there" checking DL levels. So far, they've shown no DL levels, so no search aircraft are protecting this route. That means, in 1 more turn, when my Marine Raider unit arrives at San Fran, it will embark and head to Marcus to take this island for the Allies. About 4-5 turns before the unit invades, I'll stick a sub on the base and see if it develops any recon on possible LCU units

Marcus?! This early in the war?!

[AcePylut]

If it's empty, I'll take it... at the very least, it would threaten the Marianas and the supply lines to the South Pacific... and cause CB to "retrace" his steps a bit.

From Grand Strategic point of view – if I can put 3-4 divisions on the Mariana’s in mid -42, I’ll have wrestled the initiative from CB. To do so, I need Marcus Island otherwise all my ships and troops will be sunk as they come into view of Saipan. If I do invade the Mariana Islands, I won’t have to “wait for carrier parity in ‘43 to shift initiative" – no… it’ll be all mine and from this point on, he will be on the defensive and I will be on the offensive. While I have no doubt that it could cost me a boatload of ships and all the troops I land, if he’s focused on protecting this vital bulge in his lines, I can move forward in other places.

And if he takes Marcus back before this can happen – that’s fine too, it makes him backtrack.

I want to take Marcus Island, then “do nothing” with it to lull him to sleep and make him believe I ‘just wanted this base because it was cheap for me to invade and I got trigger happy to do ‘something’”. If I take the island, if he doesn’t take it back, and if I lull him to sleep by doing nothing for a couple of months, then perhaps I can invade the Marianas and shift initiative.

I know the changes of all this falling into place is a long-shot … please understand that what I’m really doing is creating an option for the future. I’m doing these “creating options” plans in a bunch of different places. I hope that one or two of them will pan out.

I know the Japanese can go where ever they want in ’42 and my chances of stopping a well coordinated assault are close to nil….. but I dgaf. That’s all tactical and operational level stuff, and this game is won or lost at the Strategic and Grand Strategic level. The KB can only be in one place to “go where it wants” and if the KB is “here”, it’s not “there”, so “there” is where I will push… until the KB goes “there”, then I’ll move forward “here”. I need to drive that s.o.b. all over the map putting out “Allied generated fires” until that one critical mistake is made….

[Mike Solli]

Hmmm. You do realize that Marcus Island is an atoll with a 6k troop capacity, right? Also, the SLOC for you would be huge. It would basically be a self-contained POW camp. He could let them starve for a while with the occasional bombardment to accelerate the supply use, then take it with a regiment. Yeah, it would be somewhat of an inconvenience, but not much, IMHO.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

6 months for confirmation? I thought it was 60 days for confirmation. Dang, now I'll be left hanging for at least 5 more months instead of 1 more month. The Hiei was hit in the DEI, about 10 hexes from Peleliu, and I didn't see her after she supposedly went down by either search (and we know how well the Dutchies spot ships lol) or sub, so I have more "hope" than usual that she's sunk. If she's still afloat, I'd bet she's still in Peleliu repairing as much damage as possible before the return to the Home Islands shipyards, so perhaps I should run a few recon missions over the base and see if it either spots a BB in port, or generates a "ship not sunk" message.

In a previous game, I've lost a modern US BB from one sub torp, 1 hex from a West Coast Port, so I know they can go down.

Only time I lost a modern BB to a torpedo, it had a magazine explosion. Very bad joss! [:(]

BTW, the Intel weenies (who all work for FOW International) always assume any torpedo or mine hit has sunk the victim.

[Mike Solli]

You can always tell if something really sank. Keep track of the number of enemy ships sunk and the point total in the intel screen. That's the true losses (not including those you aren't aware of yet). When you get your turn, check to see if it increases. If you get confirmation that something sank on a previous day, that'll be added on the day you got confirmation. You'll always be able to tell whether what is reported is true or FOW.

Edit: As a clarification, if the # ships/ship points does not increase, then either the ship didn't sink, or you are not yet aware the ship sank at that moment. So if you get a report of the ship sinking in the sunk ship screen, check in the intel screen. There you can confirm it really sank or it's FOW, maybe yes, but most likely no.

[Bullwinkle58]

I just got confirmation of a sunk xAK 13 months after the event. I don't know if there's a limit.

True on the 1-fish intel point. Hit anything with a torpedo and it's "sunk."

Saipan has a naval fortress in stock. There is no way you can succeed in landing there in 1942 IMO. Against the AI I lost over 70 ships there in 1944.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I just got confirmation of a sunk xAK 13 months after the event. I don't know if there's a limit.

True on the 1-fish intel point. Hit anything with a torpedo and it's "sunk."

Saipan has a naval fortress in stock. There is no way you can succeed in landing there in 1942 IMO. Against the AI I lost over 70 ships there in 1944.

I have taken Saipan by wiping out the Fortress with bombing and long-range bombardment by BBs, but it took a long time. Of course possession of Tinian and Guam made this possible, and the Japanese navy and air force could not interfere. Even then I needed embedded BBs/CAs with the amphibs to suppress the DP guns (up to 10.4 cm, IIRC). And it was in 1943, not 1942.

I think the biggest issue is that in cutting the IJ LOC to the Marianas you set up your own LOC to be interdicted by carrier and SCTF raids. Owning Midway and Wake would help tremendously but the key is owning or demolishing Truk.

[rustysi]

at Wenchow and dropped forts to 1, but the adjusted AV was pretty good in my favor

Wenchow is a perfect defensive point for the Chinese, JR and a base. JR = x3 defense.

[AcePylut]

I'm not looking at this as a "take and try to hold forever" type operation... but more of a "take and draw the enemy forces here, for an extended length of time, letting me do stuff in other places"

And as soon as the KB moves to stop the bleeding in "other places", I can run in supply. Of course there would be action and ships lost, this would be a damn costly operation, in terms of ships lost, but if I can break the back of the IJ CA force in '42... I think what that would mean come '44, and the cost can easily be justified.

My ultimate goal is to drop a nuke or two on Japan - so I have to take that into consideration too

And lets not forget, this is all a long shot option. First things first - and that's "take and see how long I hold Marcus, if indeed Marcus can be captured by a Marine Raider LCU". It's also dependent on what CB does in the Aleuts. That flank needs to be covered for certain. I think I'd have to couple any optional Marianas operation with a push somewhere in the DEI, somewhere.

That would use most of my navy, so I'd also have to consider doing something where I don't need a navy, and that's India.

IDK. Layers upon layers upon layers of thoughts, operations, counter operations, decisions, and so on. I love this game

[rustysi]

I"ve got three subs near Marcus Island that are "sitting there" checking DL levels. So far, they've shown no DL levels, so no search aircraft are protecting this route. That means, in 1 more turn, when my Marine Raider unit arrives at San Fran, it will embark and head to Marcus to take this island for the Allies.

Normally my early defense of Marcus includes at least on Naval Guard unit plus a small engineer unit with AS. About 2500-3000 troops, and those engrs' are building forts. That Marine Raider unit hasn't got a chance.

[rustysi]

From Grand Strategic point of view – if I can put 3-4 divisions on the Mariana’s in mid -42, I’ll have wrestled the initiative from CB. To do so, I need Marcus Island otherwise all my ships and troops will be sunk as they come into view of Saipan. If I do invade the Mariana Islands, I won’t have to “wait for carrier parity in ‘43 to shift initiative" – no… it’ll be all mine and from this point on, he will be on the defensive and I will be on the offensive. While I have no doubt that it could cost me a boatload of ships and all the troops I land, if he’s focused on protecting this vital bulge in his lines, I can move forward in other places.

Sorry, but as a JFB this is pure fantasy IMHO. From the Japanese POV I'd say do it so i can wipe out 3-4 Allied ID's, most likely before you even make land fall.

My main hope as a JFB is to have my opponent do one of two things. Counter-attack either too early or too late. Too early and I can defeat him and set him back months or even a year. Too late and the costs to him will possibly prevent a win. Either is not easy to predict and impossible for me to engineer, but its Japan's only chance.

You are headed for doom with this operation against a player like CB. He's no rookie.

Edit:That being said, do it. I'd like to see the massacre.[:D]