Feb 44 Summary
Probably one of the best months of the campaign so far! Although no single decisive major battle took place, continued Allied advances caused a prolonged, attritional campaign resulting in heavy Japanese losses to relatively few Allied, especially off Sumatra. Solid gains in both IO and SWPAC, Burma is moving forward again, but advances in SOPAC were delayed somewhat and Palembang still remains as an IJA bastion in Sumatra. The IJN counters to thwart advances in the IO, SWPAC and SOPAC were all timed a bit too late to derail the advance and although delayed the advance in both SWPAC and SOPAC, resulted in heavy loss - although the massed sub attacks off Sumatra were worrisome, and both subs and LBA inflicted naval losses. China has become active once again, and not in a good way as the IJA resumes offensive operations. Naval losses for the month were in the Allies favor again thanks mainly to the subs; the IJN lost 2CV, 1 CLAA, 3DD, 12MTB, 3SS and 6SSX compared to the Allies losing only 1CL, 5DE, 2SS and 15PT overall. In the air, the highly sought after 2-1 loss ratio was greatly exceeded, due to a month of heavy, but largely ineffective LBA attacks vs. the Allied landings in Sumatra; losses were 1884 for Jpn to 675 Allied. Also, on perhaps a relatively minor note, for the first time since the dark early days of the campaign, Allied VP totals exceeded Japan’s. It might swing back and forth for a while, but it’s definitely going in the right direction long term. Lastly, and which might have the longest lasting effect, I managed to trigger the Kamikazes all too early when the island of Singkep off Sumatra “flipped”.
INTEL: After Soryu was sunk, the KB has again vanished. No trace. While I wasn’t too surprised that the KB was eventually committed to the Sumatran Campaign - although I did expect it much earlier - I was a bit surprised that it would again try an ambush on the north coast of New Guinea - as other attempts had similar results…loss of CVs to subs for no gain. So now the KB is less two more CVs and nothing gained from their efforts. That said, I have no idea what will “trigger” the KB’s commitment now. I’m guessing either a landing in the Marianas or the Philippines which are still a few months away. The combination of LBA with a massed sub attack as what happened off Sumatra will likely be combined with the introduction of Kamikazes and the KB is the most likely, and the most dangerous if L_S_T can pull off the synchronization. The wild card is probably fuel - just how much is available for a major IJN sortie?
SUBWAR: Subs are seemingly more effective against the IJN CVs, or my luck has just gotten a whole lot better. There are more subs available, no question. Both Katsuragi and Soryu succumbed to sub attacks during KB “raids”. Allied sub drivers still have the most dangerous job as Japanese ASW a/c are still the sub’s primary scourge. On the other side, L_S_T’s massing of conventional subs and mini subs converging during an amphib landing was dangerous tactic that had some successes.
West Coast/USA/Rear Areas: Fighter production increases to 872 in Mar with the introduction of the P-51B and the P-47D25 replacing the P-47D. Another good month in the air provides replacement aircraft available for most frontline fighters and for the bombers, only the B-25 series is, as usual, in short supply. Pilot pools are in pretty good shape, although most of the US Army’s trainers (restricted Fourth Air Force squadrons) are slated to withdraw at the end of month. On the naval side, the fleet is stronger than it has ever been, with all CV/CVLs and fast BBs avail and consolidated with the exception of CV Essex, still in repair in England.
NOPAC. NSTR.
CENPAC. I expect it to remain quiet in March, although there is a slight, and I mean slight, possibility of beginning offensive amphib operations west of Truk very late in the month, but that is more likely to happen in April/May.
SOPAC. Again, subs thwarted a KB raid, sinking Soryu shortly after the KB sortied. However, that raid did decide the outcome of the Noemfoor landings - it was cancelled. Noemfoor was more of a holding attack and to progress LBA forward, but in the end, I decided it wasn’t needed. Instead, SOPAC will land at Sorong, bypassing the well defended Noemfoor/Biak area. That landing should happen in the latter half of March, depending on how quickly the upcoming SWPAC landings take, and will signal the transition of the fleet back to Pacific Ocean waters.
SWPAC. Good progress in SWPAC, with the eastern Banda Sea islands secured and providing airstrips to extend fighter and bomber range that was able to suppress the primary Japanese airbases of Ambon, Boela, Kendari and even threatening Makassar. The landing at Lautem was a risk as LBA fighter cover was limited, but mitigated by CVEs. I was lucky to catch wind of the KB sortie back to counter the reinforcing of Lautem, pulling the CVEs and other support clear - and again, subs did well crippling Katsuragi during that sortie. Bombers finished her off while taking refuge in Kendari. The KB sortie did delay operations for about a week, but with the KB north of New Guinea, offensive operations resumed, only with the support of CVEs. Now with the Fleet in Theater, landings will go in at Endeh to secure fighter AFs for the next major advance. Securing the southern half of Celebes will be the focus in March, which will involve some preliminary landings and ultimately division plus size amphib operations. Troops are all well prepped already, and it’s just a question of logistics (and assault shipping availability) and whether or not the KB returns to provoke a fight. Securing the Kendari-Makassar area should effectively isolate the eastern end of the Java Sea and directly threaten the oil refineries on Borneo.
China. Sadly, IJA offensive operations have resumed in China, taking the eastern tip of the Allied “Kweiyang Line” at Changsa all too easily. Worse, a new offensive on the SW portion of the line, near Nanning, looks to be gaining momentum and is more powerful than originally thought. Still, the Chinese troops are now pretty well supplied along the entire front, and there are a few Allied “corset” troops available, as well as some limited airpower. Expect continued pressure in March, and with some luck can make the IJA gains costly.
Burma. The long delayed Moulmein offensive is now underway, and so far, so good. Troops are across the river at minimal cost, and the IJA is in full retreat - so I doubt there will be any major encirclement or quick exploitation here. Goal is to continue the advance into Thailand, but I think L_S_T is well versed at reading the tea leaves and that option will likely be heavily blocked. Malaya will also now be invested from the north, with the threat of triggering Kamikazes removed, there is little reason why not to advance south. Still, the focus will remain into Thailand and the open ground east of Bangkok to threaten Indochina. That’s the long term goal anyway.
IO. The Sumatra campaign continues to be THE defining campaign so far - despite the lack of any major single naval engagement since landing at Sabang. Landings at Benkoelen and Oosthaven triggered major responses that included massed LBA attacks and massed sub attacks, and although late, the IJN looking for a fight. That fight was denied by the USN which were at a low ebb from the month of countering constant LBA attacks - which was probably what L_S_T was hoping for to give him the edge in a CV fight. Instead, both fleets seemed to stare each other down for a turn or two before the KB withdrew back into the Java Sea. Overall, the Allied Fleet did well against everything L_S_T could throw at it, with minimal losses sustained. On the ground, troops slowly but surely closed on the prize of Palembang, to find it heavily reinforced by IJA. By month’s end, troops are set to close in for the final fight at Palembang as airpower attempts to reduce the defenders. Much concern here as Palembang looks an awful lot like Chungking - a heavily defended, well fortified, well supplied redoubt. With the Fleet departed to SWPAC, and not expected to return any time soon, focus for ground and air forces are to secure Palembang, while naval assets keep the supplies flowing into Sumatra. Construction engineers are focused on expanding available ports and airfields, to include prepping a number of airfields for B-29s, the first of which should be arriving in Theater before month’s end. Assault shipping will be gradually reduced as most US APA/AKAs head out of Theater. Lastly, and most significantly, troops taking Djambi apparently triggered the island of Singkep off the coast to “flip” to Allied control which triggers the Kamikaze capability. Was really hoping to avoid triggering Kamis for as long as possible, although I’m not exactly sure what advantage that will provide. I was hoping not to find out for a few more months.
