A Clash of Titans, Xhoel (Axis) vs Bitburger (Soviet)

[xhoel]

T23, 20th of November-27th of November 1941
AGN

The pocket of Leningrad has finally been eliminated. The direct assault on northern Leningrad by 5 divisions was successful. The other pockets of resistance collapsed during the week. Our divisions here have begun their transfer to the Rzhev sector while the Kannas Finnish Army is preparing to deploy on the frontline. 4 battle hardened divisions of the II Corps will make Leningrad their home for the winter. Luftflotte 1 will also withdraw and deploy in the sector of AGC. The air defense of AGN will be conducted by elements of the I Fliegerkorps and the Finnish Air Command.

Before:







After:

[xhoel]

AGC

The pocket of Ostashkov held but the enemy was able to conduct a successful airlift inside the pocket, resupplying the trapped troops by air. The VVS has suffered heavy losses in the process, but it seems that the Soviets are simply brushing these losses aside as if they were nothing. The loss of 2 Armies, one of which appears to have been a Shock Army preparing for offensive operation in the sector has forced the Soviets to transfer many new formations to the area. Most of the units inside the pocket have been destroyed but 4 Rifle Divisions and 1 Tank Brigade are still holding out. The 3 Rifle Divisions will prove hard to dislodge as they have the high ground overlooking Ostashkov. To the east of the pocket our units continue to give ground and the defense in this area is being oriented around Klin.





Many armored formations have moved to their winter quarters. However many have been transfered to the front to help the infantry erect fortifications. They will be pulled back to their quarters once reserves are available. Further to the east, the 4th Army has strengthened its positions around Tula after destroying a lone Rifle divisions that was surrounded the previous turn. Several formations of the 2nd Army have been pulled back for R&R and a secondary defensive line is being build around Tula.

[xhoel]

AGS

The enemy managed to destroy both the 24th and 297th ID last week. Only 3000 men managed to escape from the pocket. 22K men were captured. It is to date the heaviest loss on the Eastern Theater for us.



The enemy has pulled back slowly in the sector south of Voronezh. Their pull back was timed perfectly with a local offensive that pushed back some of our weakened regiments and managed to encircle 2 Infantry Divisions and 2 Regiments. We manage to break the perimeter and have pulled the units out of the pocket, but the situation here remains very fragile. Most units are understrength and very weakened. Reinforcements are needed ASAP.





Further south our units have advanced forward recovering a bit of land that we will give up pretty soon anyways in order to buy time. In the Rostov sector we have pulled back almost all mobile formations and the panzers are ready to depart for their winter quarters. We have pulled 7 disivisions off the line and have put them on R&R. Hopefully they will be able to join their comrades at the front pretty soon. Our assault to expell Soviet troops located north of the Don failed even though we had commited 3 divisions to the task. We will try to break expel the enemy from here once more next week.











Crimea

In the Crimea we have pulled back several depleted Romanian divisions and have reoccupied our positions on the front line. 2 more German divisions are arriving. Defenses are being build at the entrance of the Crimea and the rail repair is going according to plan.

[xhoel]

Casualties:

The Soviets have taken heavy losses this week, both in men and material, 141.000 men have been taken prisoner and around 30.000 more remain trapped in the pocket in the Rzhev sector.

[Crackaces]

What would be an interesting data point is the OOB. I think Soviet 4.5M Manpower is a critical number. Take a look at our 2x3 game and you can see the Soviets at 4.6M on turn 35 have a real problem once the blizzard turns to snow. Also +1 attack does help ensure more victories for the Red Star, but at the price of Manpower. The losses you post suggest the blizzard offense might be limited ?

[xhoel]

This is the OOB at the end of turn 23 for the Axis. Our manpower numbers aren't looking that great either. I will post a full analysis of the whole campaign next turn though. The numbers from turn 24 will be a better indicator of what the blizzard holds in store for us.

[SparkleyTits]

In the current version losses are heavier compared to when 2by3 was started and it can be a darn difficult job to build Soviet OOB atm even if you are doing well

I'm not sure if you mean an OOB of 4.5mil or 4.5mil losses is critical so apologies if I misread what you meant mate but getting a 4.5mil Soviet OOB probably means a successful summer with a Soviet majority of initiative, with all combat efficient units that aren't AFV focused being probably atleast 90% TOE and usually means very good going for the Soviets atm
Because of changes in losses, TOE etc the game can be wildly different currently compared to the older statistics guidelines

The loss ratios are 7-1 which is anyones game from my experience and Bittburger has some nice CV on map right when he needs it
That could be because of Axis fatigue, trucks, TOE's of Axis units too and could be slightly deceptive, although whether deceptive or not this is the worst possibile time to have those disadvantages as Axis

My opinion is that I honestly think this blizzard could go either way ranging from nominal for Axis to dramatic and panicked, depending on what they both have planned and how those plan collide in the early winter so I am really looking forward to seeing what happens personally!! [:D]

[Crackaces]

So the reader understands my posting -- I am not focused on the mechanics of 2x3 vs this game. My thoughts are about simple math. Let us assume that a Soviet division is between 5-7 K. (I think it can be bigger and unready if smaller, but let us have a wide margin of discretion if only to make a point.) The map stretches X length. The Soviets need 'Y' depth or risk being isolated. With a very loose application of the above figures you can assume that 1M men can stretch about 150 hexes give or take 10 - 20 hexes. That does not account for brigades at 2K a piece. Start stacking units for the attack and the manpower is stretched further. Start creating Corps and the available units / number of hexes stretches further.

From a strategic standpoint it seems that 4.5M is enough to cover the front north to south and have enough stuff to conduct an offense. My experience is N=2. In the 8MP game just under 5.4M Soviets in TO&E I can carve paths in the strongest Soviet Bastion. (See 8MP AAR). Xhoel has access to the 2x3 game and can envision the current turn 4.6M Soviets and a very long thin defensive line. Where the Soviets were concentrated the best they could do was 3 deep while maintaining a contiguous front. In 8MP they (the Soviets) were able with 5.4M to have a front and units in the rear to dig .. although I penetrated well into those digging zones by turn 55 and the first clear turn.

In this game the Soviets are around 4M to start the offensive. The +1 attack does give the opportunity for the Soviets to gain victories, but at a price. In the 2x3 game the Soviets gained ground back but have not gained any manpower given losses. (BTW I might propose that putting SU's in the right places extracts even a heavier toll where the manpower is minus each turn). Also the Soviets will have to concentrate to strike. You add all this together and I have no doubt the Soviets can make a push somewhere … my thoughts are when the smoke clears and turn 55 comes .. will the Soviets be able to resist? Assuming a strong Soviet offense with subsequent losses .. That leaves a very thin line for defense and very little to prepare for the oncoming 1942 offense ..

Just my 0.02

[SparkleyTits]

You add all this together and I have no doubt the Soviets can make a push somewhere … my thoughts are when the smoke clears and turn 55 comes ..

I think those are great long term observations mate yes
I would say it all depends on how the winter goes but I think if Xhoel can do well in the early months then this is a perfect question as once the trucks, HIWIS, refitting etc etc all come back into play, I have no doubt it will be Xhoel who holds the initiative in 42 as you described

The main advantages the Soviets have right now are almost entirely temporary ones but even if temporary they are at the exact oportune time for the Soviets so that is why I am so excited to see how this all pans out especially when a player shows he can strike in aggresion when the opportunity demands it like Bittburger did in the muds

This is all theorising of course but this is one of the great things about AAR's as we can all have great fun talking, chatting, debating and guessing about all the plausible avenues like we are [:)]

[Crackaces]

One thing that happened in 2x3 .. the Soviets pushed in 3 places. They actually got an early victory on a couple of German units isolated. I am thinking if they focused on one area they will be much more successful in smashing Germans. As it is they temporarily pushed me back from a Yaro and forced me to commit “the lions”. But ... when turn 55 hits .. Katy bar the door ..

Maybe the Soviets have a plan.

[xhoel]

T24, 27th of November-4th of December 1941
AGN and the Finnish front

The Finnish Army has finished their deployment on the Svir and east of the port of Sviritsa. The Finnish troops are much better equiped and trained to withstand the winter conditions and their deployment will allow us to shift German units to other sectors where they are badly needed.
The fresh Finnish Kannas Army is moving toward the front to relieve the German L Corps, while the rest of the infantry divisions that were located at Leningrad have already been transferred to other sectors to plug the gaps and reinforce our troops who have gone on the defensive all along the front. 4 battle hardened infantry divisions will remain at Leningrad. Luftflotte 1 is preparing to move to the sector of AGC, while the I Fliegerkorps has taken over the air defense in the north deploying a token force of 120 fighters to protect the sector from the Svir river to the Seligersee at Ostashkov.

Sviritsa sector:


Vaidai Sector:

[xhoel]

AGC

In the Rzhev sector, our forces have finally eliminated the units trapped in the Ostashkov pocket and our armored formations have begun to pull back from their forward positions as new arriving infantry formations take their place. The XIV Panzer Corps remains at the front however because of a lack of fuel. They will have to be transferred to the rear next week.
In the Klin sector, our troops give ground, trying to avoid a Soviet assault. The concentration of enemy formations in the sector is simply scary. Hopefully we will be able to reinforce our position in the coming week.





The positions in front of Moscow have been reinforced with the new arriving divisions of the 18th Army. 2 more divisions will be dispatched to the frontline next week. The same situation can be observed in the Oka sector. Our units continue digging in behind the river. Until it freezes in about 2 weeks (turn 26) we should be able to hold our positions here. Unfortunately, 2 panzer divisions will be hit by the first blizzard weather as they have been dispatched to the front due to a lack of Infantry divisions. By next week they will be pulled back.





Marked in white are armored formations that will be pulled back soon.

The Soviets are being aggressive and have already started attacks on our weakened formations south of Tula and have been quite successful so far. Our troops are ordered to pull back in order to shorten the line. Due to a complete lack of both man made fortifications and good defensvie terrain our troops in this sector will gradually pull back every week until they reach secondary defensive lines that are being constructed around Tula.

[chaos45]

one key note when you are defending--if you can always re-take empty hexes close to your line so the other side has to spend more MP to enter that hex on their next turn.

It may seem like a small thing but costing the other side 1+ extra MP to enter a hex can matter esp when they are trying to build stacks and are soviets trying to attack.

[xhoel]

ORIGINAL: chaos45

one key note when you are defending--if you can always re-take empty hexes close to your line so the other side has to spend more MP to enter that hex on their next turn.

It may seem like a small thing but costing the other side 1+ extra MP to enter a hex can matter esp when they are trying to build stacks and are soviets trying to attack.

Thanks for the tip. I didn't have the MPs to do that in those two cases. I do try to do that whenever the situation allows though.

[xhoel]

AGS

Soviet troops are pressing west of Voronezh. Our troops give ground slowly pulling back towards our supply lines.
Further south, the Soviets have attacked our Hungarian Allies in a second attempt to try to encircle our weakened infantry divisions. The Hungarians perform well in both occasions conducting a fighting withdrawal. Our troops counterattacked this week pushing back the Soviets and our infantry divisions pull back slowly. They have been resupplied by air this week. We are weakest in this sector. The Soviets have also pushed Cavalry and motorized formations west this week. Our counterattacks have put a check to their advance.

Voronezh sector:





Kharkov sector:





Soviet attacks have continued in the Stalino sector. 4 Soviet attacks have been repulsed by our forces. One attack however managed to push back the weakened Slovakian Motorized Division. Its sister division, the Slovakian Security Division held back two consecutive Soviet attacks. Both divisions have been pulled off the line for R&R. Our well rested and refitted Light Infantry Divisions have taken their place.





On the Don our troops managed to push back Soviet forces in the estuary, securing the river line. The port of Taganrog was also taken after 2 heavy attacks. The Rumanian II Corps has been pulled back for R&R.



Marked in black, battles where our forces held the Soviets back.



The battles of Taganrog and the battle on the estuary marked in black.

Battle for control of the northern bank of the Don:



The Crimea

Our troops continue to hold their positions in the Crimea. The weather here is predicted to be milder than in the other parts of the Soviet Union so our meteorologists predict that ''real'' winter will not hit until January. Our units are making themselves busy with building fortifications, strengthening their positions before January arrives. FBD 2 is working tirelessly to repair the rail leading into the Crimea.

[xhoel]

Casualties

Soviet casualties have been light this week. Almost 30k men have been captured after the clearing of the Ostashkov pocket.

[xhoel]

An evaluation of the campaign:

The campaign against the Soviet Union has been a bloody one. Even though we have had several successes we have failed to land a knockout blow on the Soviet Union. We had a very good summer campaign but the overconfidence of our performance clouded our judgement. We left gaps in our lines and the enemy was able to exploit that to land a powerful blow on the German Army. During the mud weeks, several divisions were cut off from supply, both due to enemy action and because of the overextension of our supply lines. As a result, in a mere 7 weeks our casualties increased by 221.000 men, 4.000 guns and 740 AFVs. Many divisions are under strength and 2 Infantry divisions have been destroyed and are currently reforming in Germany. To make matters worse, General Winter is knocking on our door and the situation is looking very bleak. We can only hope that the German Landser will come victorious out of this fight.

Here is a breakdown of the casualties:



39% of our casualties are irreversible ones (KIA and POWs).

While the Wehrmachts casualties are high, the Soviets are in a completely other level. In the 24 weeks of our campaign the Red Army as it stood on June the 22nd has ceased to exist. It has lost 162 Rifle, 31 Armored, 16 Motorized and 16 Cavalry Divisions among a plethora of other units as shown below:



The Soviets have lost around 3.7 million men, 75% of which are irreversible casualties:
KIA: 500.000,
POWs: 2.278.800.

Their material losses have also been heavy:
47.880 guns,
19.130 AVFs and
15.280 Aircraft

In terms of industry the Soviets have lost 27 HI, 89 ARM and 5 Vehicle factories.This means that their industry is operating at these levels:

HI 209 (230)
ARM 281 (370)
The Soviets are also receiving around 121.000 new recruits weekly.



(Thanks to Bitburgerdraft for providing the numbers. I kept tabs on the industry and my numbers only differed with +/-5 with the ones Bitburger provided but of course such info is very appreciated as it adds a nice flavor to the AAR.)

For all the losses we have taken and inflicted we have been able to partially complete our objectives. Leningrad has fallen after a 9 week long siege. Kharkov, Stalino and Kiev fell to AGS in their advance east. Rostov finally fell after a 4 week siege and taking the city has cost our troops a lot as they had to stay in their defensive positions while completely cut off supply. We failed to take Moscow and Voronezh after the Soviets launched their offensive right before the mud. An offensive towards Sevastopol was cancelled due to the terrible supply situation in the south.



Before the winter hits we have managed to garrison most of our armored formations and 6 of our best infantry divisions. The rest of our motorized and panzer formations will soon follow suit. We finally have full North-South rail connectivity and are working on extending the rail line in the Tula and Rzhev sectors. The rail line leading to the Crimea is being repaired as we speak. Generalfeldmarschall von Kluge has taken command of the OKH and Luftflotte 2 and Fliegerkorps II have just been withdrawn to the west. The new Infantry division TOE will come into effect next week:





OOB:

[xhoel]

T25, 4th of December-11th of December 1941

The blizzard weather has finally hit. Temperatures are well under the freezing point and have started to take a toll on our units. Cases of frostbite are being reported by all Army Groups and due to the heavy snow and ice, trucks are breaking down at an astonishing rate. The supply chains are close to their breaking point. Traffic jams along the rail lines have held up winter gear in depots in Poland. Roads that are cleared in the morning are already impassable by midday and labor squads have to work non stop to keep the roads open for the supply columns. Intelligence and recon reports indicate that a Soviet offensive is imminent. The Wehrmacht is on the defensive all along the front.



German sentries west of Moscow

AGN

The Finnish forces are taking their places on the front, relieving German units who are ordered to move further south. From the Svir to the Vaidai heights the Soviets have concentrated very few units, which indicates that the offensive will probably fall further to the south in the Moscow sector.

[SparkleyTits]

Here we go boys!
I reckon you will probably be fine now mate with your reinforcements coming in [:)]

Those Finns are looking like they could do with some live fire training me thinks!

[xhoel]

ORIGINAL: SparkleyTits

Here we go boys!
I reckon you will probably be fine now mate with your reinforcements coming in [:)]

Those Finns are looking like they could do with some live fire training me thinks!

I am not so optimistic myself. Take a look at the Report of AGC. The Soviet CVs are scary not to mention the unit density in the sector.

Hahaha yeah the Finns are quite an asset. Doesn't seem like Bitburger will pursue an offensive in the sector for now though, which is fine for me!