Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

Kushiro would be the most likely point of attack. We know Erik is aggressive and very good. Judging by what I've seen him doing in game, I think he'd definitely consider it and probably pull the trigger. With Death Star away, there's a decent chance he could take control of the air. There's a decent chance he'd bring forward his remaining capital ships to bombard. And he could be a million man army forward.

Despite that risk, I'm willing to chance it because it's necessary. The Next NExt Big Thing will be worth it, even at the risk of losing Kushiro (and/or Wakkanai). But I don't think either is a "lost cause." They'll have the advantages you gents speak of and reducing them should take time. I'll leave enough forces behind to make Erik take precautions, and Death Star won't be so far away that she's unable to return, if needed.

I think Wakkanai will have a garrision of two divisions and Kushiro of two+. Both will have forts of at least five and probably six, by the time TNNBT gets underway.

[RangerJoe]

And any capitol ships bombarding would probably have to pass through sub infested waters, PT boats, and minefields. Not to mention US DD Task Forces, especially those that retain their torpedoes. It probably would not be worth any gains by the Japanese to lose the surface ships trying to clear Hokkaido.

[Canoerebel]

4/5/45

NoPac: Death Star advanced to it's blocking position west of Kushiro without incident. It will probably need to remain in this vicinity for one or two more turns, covering the shipping pulling the units out of Kushiro.

I think the odds of Erik unleashing his air force tomorrow is perhaps 33%. That high, because this is the first chance he's had to employ massed kamikazes (along with strike aircraft) from big airfields in proximity. That low because he may prefer to wait for a better opportunity later.

But he'd better not wait. I think this is the last time Death Star will be exposed to so many massive airfields at such close range. TNNBT doesn't involve exposure at this level, I don't believe.

Erik may be guessing that way too.

If he does pull the trigger, the damage should be dramatic. He'll sink alot of ships, including good ones. I don't think he'll sink enough to hamper TNNBT. The key to things is the level of damage his air force suffers in the process. If he impails himself while scoring points that are meaningful but not decisive, that's acceptable.

[Canoerebel]

4/6/45

NoPac: Remarkably quiet today in an eerie, disconcerting way.

The Allies will devote one more day to loading units at Kushiro, then bug out (the exception being, if a large enemy air strike really neuters Erik's air force, then the threat level may go down significantly).

In the graphic, I set the odds of an enemy all-out attack tomorrow at 67%. My gut tells me he's coming.

Mini-DS should rendezvous with DS tonight, adding 650 aircraft (probably something like 400 good fighters) to the mix.

If Erik doesn't strike tomorrow, I think he'll have missed his last good chance at a consolidate strike within close range of a multitude of big airfields.

[BBfanboy]

Well, IF, following Nemo's return to the forum and his request for IJ AARs to look at - IF he then decided to work with obvert, they may now have a massive Japanese landing about to happen on the US West Coast! [:D]
Could explain the eerie quiet and the disappearance of KB after deliberately showing part of it near the IO.

[MakeeLearn]

Carriers are NICE targets and look good mounted over the fireplace.
Invasion fleets - Troops/transports/etc - are where the MEAT is at.
I can see Japan regrouping/preparing to hit the NEXT BIG invasion.

[Lokasenna]

Even if a counterinvasion of the Kuriles were "successful", it wouldn't be successful.

Nevermind that Japan does not really have the capability to conduct an amphibious operation of the scale required to oust even a single American division (or a smorgasbord of LCUs adding up to roughly equivalent numbers) from an island. They don't have the sealift capability, they don't have anything better than an AK, they don't have the surplus supplies, they don't have the pre-invasion bombardment capability, and so on. Even if the Japanese player managed to pull something like that off, the Allied player shouldn't be worried - as long as aircraft were evacuated before the base fell. And speaking of aircraft... any Japanese troops would be bombed to hell before they could take the island, assuming forts have been built (and no real reason why they shouldn't be, considering the overflow of Allied engineers in the OOB).

[Canoerebel]

4/7/45

NoPac: I had a hunch he was coming. The situation called for it. The email he sent with the 4/6 turn included some subtle hints. Then Erik sat with the turn far, far longer than anticipated....

...and then I learned that he hadn't received the turn I'd sent at 1 p.m. yesterday. We discovered the snafu at 10:30 a.m. today. I resent the turn. He sent it back tonight...

...at which time I learned that he wasn't coming.

No all-out enemy air attack on Death Star and the shipping at Kushiro. Huh.

The loading is mostly completed. Completed enough that all ships will weigh anchor and move out tonight. THere are still cadres at Kushiro - mostly motorized support and such - that I'll retrieve.

The effort to pull out an army at Kushiro is essentially complete without loss (so far). There's more shuffling afoot, as other units are retrieved from the Kuriles and a few units are repositioned from one island to another, to match prep and to mate with cadres. But the planning for The Next Next Big Thing now enters its final phases. I hope to have time to upgrade the host of Death Star DDs due for AA improvements. I think that will work out.

I've scrubbed the invasion of Marcus. I can better use those units to reinforce the Kuriles and Hokkaido. I'll sleep better too. Marcus is basically irrelevant given my chosen vector of attack.

[Canoerebel]

4/8/45

Synergism: The Japanese MLR in Burma is withdrawing. At the moment, it seems to me that the long, long, long-planned synergism between Burma and The Next NExt Big Thing is turning out to be nearly perfectly timed.

That'll changed, of course. The blush usually fades from the rose, as reality hits home.

[Canoerebel]

4/9/45 to 4/12/45

SEAC: The enemy MLR has retired from Moulmein. I don't think Erik can successfully stand long-term anywhere else, so the Allies should be able to take control of Burma and the Bangkok region. From that point, nearly all of the Allied army will move towards Singers, either via land or by sea.

NoPac: The tremendous logistical work underlying The Next Next Big Thing continues in good order. There are still a few units to reposition (96th Div. from Wakkanai to Kushiro, by sea) or to recover from the Kuriles. I think all of that should be done within a week.

TNNBT units not needed in the amphibious assaults have switched to Strat Mode.

I'm trying to get as many DDs upgraded as possible. Sommers-class upgrades take only 7 days, so there's still time for them. But Fletcher upgrades take 12 days. I'm not sure I want to wait that long. But retrieving the remaining divisions posted in the Kuriles is pretty slow, because there are 0(0) ports involved. So I may have more time than I think.

[jwolf]

Erik's move in SE Asia makes sense to me: by April 1945 that territory is just not as significant as it used to be. He seems to be very careful about not overextending his forces, commendably so IMHO.

[Canoerebel]

Right. I just hope he waited too long.

[Canoerebel]

A question for you who know more than I do about optimizing ship classes for amphibious assault (most everybody reading this will know more than I do).

The Allies have a tremendous fleet of assault shipping available - I think, for once, I have so much that it won't be necessary to cram troops onto ships or to shoe-horn x-Class ships into the invasion fleet. But I'm not sure if there are advantages to doing things certain ways:

1. I have enough APAs to carry the full complement of 15 or so divisions involved. Question: Is there any advantage to including AKAs in the infantry assault shipping, or do the APAs, which are configured to carry both men and equipment, sufficient, thus freeing the AKAs for other duties?

2. LSI(L)s are available. I think they are the UK equivalent of the APA, so I'll use them as such.

3. There are LSDs that carry a bit of infantry but mostly cargo. Should those be used like APAs or should they be used to carry armor and/or artillery?

4. Should tank units be placed only on LSTs or are there even better ships that should be used, such as LSDs or AKAs?

5. I plan to use APDs and LCIs for the main target, carrying parts of the key assault infantry units. Any reason to use them in some other capacity?

[T Rav]

I learn so much just from the questions... I can't help you, but I look forward to the answers.

Lurker T Rav

[Mike Solli]

A comment on the first question. When invading, I always have ship(s) loaded only with supply because if the troop carrying ships don't land all of their troops in the first phase, no supply is landed. This ensures supply is landed with the invading force.

Edit: So I would include AKAs with the invading TF.

[RangerJoe]

If I remember correctly, Landing Ships Dock (which is LSD here, not Lysergic Acid Diethylamide) was used for the amphtracks. They could be used as such in your invasion force which would help speed unloading.

I think that your armor is best loaded on LSTs. Just 1000 points or less so they unload on one phase. The rest of the cargo on the LSTs should be supplies.

AKAs should load the cargo heavy part of certain units like artillery, combined with APDs which can hold the troops which should give maximum effectiveness of the shipping. If a AP has extra passenger space loaded with cargo, it will only carry a portion of the supplies that it could if it carried the supplies in the cargo hold. As an example, an APD can carry 180 troops or 60 supply.

I think that you can include nonamphibous loaded cargo ships in your assault fleet. While AKAs will unload faster, even xAKs will help. Extra LSTs loaded with cargo will unload 1000 supply right away. Also, more ships as "padding" should spread out any defensive fire that hits the transports instead of the Navy combat ships embedded.

I think that witpqs has this down very well but he is commenting on the other side. [:(]

[panzer cat]

I use the LSD's for arty and LST's for tanks. If I need to use xAK's there in a separate convoy carrying just supplies.

[CaptBeefheart]

To your questions:

1. I have enough APAs to carry the full complement of 15 or so divisions involved. Question: Is there any advantage to including AKAs in the infantry assault shipping, or do the APAs, which are configured to carry both men and equipment, sufficient, thus freeing the AKAs for other duties?

*** I usually mix some AKAs in with APAs (maybe 20-25% AKA) to handle the motorized support, arty, etc. I don't think APAs by themselves will efficiently load divisions.

2. LSI(L)s are available. I think they are the UK equivalent of the APA, so I'll use them as such.

*** Yes.

3. There are LSDs that carry a bit of infantry but mostly cargo. Should those be used like APAs or should they be used to carry armor and/or artillery?

*** I generally use them like APAs and that seems to work well enough.

4. Should tank units be placed only on LSTs or are there even better ships that should be used, such as LSDs or AKAs?

*** LSTs will unload tanks and arty very quickly, so I don't believe the other ships are better (if you have plenty of LSTs).

5. I plan to use APDs and LCIs for the main target, carrying parts of the key assault infantry units. Any reason to use them in some other capacity?

*** Good idea. I don't know of a better use.

One thing I'd reiterate is that LST TFs carrying only supply are great to have on hand.

Cheers,
CB

[BBfanboy]

Don't forget to make barges from your supply when you get to the target - speeds up unloading of equipment like vehicles.
You should also have some "Amphibious Truck" units which land with the troops, and then work to shuttle stuff from ship to shore. I think they have (abstracted) LCVPs to do that.

[HansBolter]

I always mix AKAs in with my other ship types in a major amphibious TF.

Yes, if you allocate enough APAs you can cover the equipment loading needs but you will have a very large overcapacity of troop space doing this. Its far more efficient to mix in one AKA for every 4-6 APAs. Much of the equipment loading can also be covered by adding in enough LSTs and other beaching craft. APAs don't have the correct balance of troop and cargo space to efficiently load divisions without adding in AKAs or other cargo primary carrier types.