Witness to World War 2.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. CW/French Convoys and Production.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. CW/French Convoys and Production.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. CW/French Convoys and Production.

Finally, the allies, specifically the CW, were able to find and get a spare CP into the Coral AND Timor Sea and route the New Caledonia resource to a French factory.

[rkr1958]

The Phony War. Axis Production.




NOTE:
FAC = X | Y => X=# of factories production, Y=total # of factories

BP = # BP's available for production (includes trade to/from)

OIL = # total saved oil at the end of production

[rkr1958]

The Phony War. Chinese Production.

[rkr1958]

The Phony War. Soviet Production.

[rkr1958]

The Phony War. Western Allied Production.

[rkr1958]

The Phony War. Production Summaries.

[rkr1958]

USSR. End of the Phony War. Turn 5. May/June 1940

Eastern Poland. Claimed by the Soviets on turn 1 (Sep/Oct 1939), allied #2 impulse (i.e., first allied impulse of the game). This cost the US German/Italian entry pool 1-chit of value 2.

17 Sep 1939. Molotov – “Warsaw, as the capital of Poland, no longer exists. The Polish Government has disintegrated, … Polish State and its Government … ceased to exist … Poland … constitute a threat to the USSR … order troops to cross the frontier and to take under their protection the life and property of the population of Western Ukraine and Western Belarus. …”

Baltic States. Bessarabia. Persia.

Stalin while ruthless is also a patience man. He has bide his time with respect to Bessarabia, the Baltic States and Persia. Stalin's patience in regards to the Baltic States and Persia has been more to do with US (Ge/It) entry chits and values (i.e., waiting until a number of lower (expected) value 1940's chits are in the pool) and, additionally for Persia, waiting for the right weather.

Concerning the soon to be Soviet acquisition of Bessarabia, Stalin's patience there was driven by the need to avoid war with Romania and the high probability (80%) of losing 2 US Ge/It entry chits. At best, war with Romania would cost 1 entry chit (20% chance of that). US chit losses aside, with all his other expansion plans the last thing Stalin wanted, or needed, was to have the Red Army tied up in a war with Romania with the real likelihood of quality German peacekeepers rushed in to aid the Romanians. Stalin’s plan to “peacefully” acquire Bessarabia is four pronged, and really simple, but does (did) require patience. Stalin's 4-prong plan: (1) position an entire Red Army Front on the border with Romania, (2) position Soviet strategic bombers in range of the Ploesti oil fields, (3) delay any claim until Germany is fully engaged with France and Great Britain on the Western Front and (4) wait for fine weather to maximize the risk of Soviet strategic bombers to Hitler’s vital oil fields at Ploesti. The Soviets were able to deploy 8 strategic factors (3 air units) within range of Ploesti which means that during fine weather, which there is now, there's a 20% of knocking out 1 oil point for the turn, 20% of knocking out 2 and a 30% of knocking out 3, and a 10% chance of destroying 1 oil point. With Case Yellow just starting, it's safe to assume that Hitler is very unlikely to risk a major blow to his precious oil supply. It that isn’t enough to convince Hitler to pressure Romania to accept a Soviet demand for Bessarabia then the fact that an entire Red Army Front is sitting on the border ready to destroy and breakthrough surprised Romanian defenders should be.

[rkr1958]

CW. Near East. End of the Phony War. Turn 5. May/June 1940.

Even with things over in Europe heating up, Great Britain has placed a high priority on protecting their valuable possessions in the Near East. Most, if not all, of the troops deployed there are there to guard against or prevent partisans.

[rkr1958]

The Med. End of the Phony War. May/June 1940.

[rkr1958]

Southern France. Northern Italy. The End of the Phony War. May/June 1940.

France and Great Britain wonder what Italy's intentions are. The Italian ambassadors in Paris and London ensure respective governments that their intentions are purely defensive.

Hitler wonders what Mussolini's intentions are and hopes that whatever the el duce decides to do that is doesn't get in the way of Case Yellow.

April 30th, 1940. The orders are passed down from the Fuhrer to OKW then to OKH, OKM & OKL and finally to the commanders in the field ...

Case Yellow ... Commence Operations ... Wednesday, May 1, 1940, 0430 hours.

[Courtenay]

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

The Phoney War.

(03)JF40. The axis win the initiative and elect to move second.

(03)JF40. Allied #1.

The British 2nd BEF, which was returned to base (in England) at the conclusion of last turn, is put back to sea on transports in the North Sea.

(03)JF40. Axis #4.

OKW has, however, pointed out a third option that guarantees Rotterdam which is to invade and conquer Holland on the last impulse of the turn. If this is achieved then all of Holland, including Rotterdam, will surrender to Germans during the conquest phase at the end of the turn. Though still unoccupied if the allies move first next turn, the only means for the English to capture Rotterdam is through amphibious invasion. Since the only amphibious capability the Brits would (currently) have is the 2nd Inf division, any attempt to do so would be suicide since the 2nd division would be heavily outnumber by 4 regiments (i.e., notionals) that Germany would have be able to "move" in during last turn's surrender of Holland.

So, option 3 to take Holland and secure Rotterdam is a "sure thing" except for one major flaw, no matter the impulse if any action other that a pass is taken, there's a chance that the turn will continue. For example, for this current impulse (axis #10), there's "only" a 40% chance that the turn will end. This means that if the Germans were to invade Holland this impulse that there's a 60% chance that the Brits would be able to occupy Rotterdam in force. 60% by any reasonable standard is too high of a risk to invade Holland this impulse.

However, if the axis were to get another impulse this turn, max probability=0.6*0.3=0.18 and min probability=0.6*0.1=0.06, and if only Germany took a non-pass option then there would be a 90% chance that the turn would end on that impulse. So to Thus, there's somewhere between 6 to 18% chance that Germany will get another impulse. And if they do, there's a 90% that they can conquer Holland and secure Rotterdam this impulse.

Whether or not that 90% is acceptable, we'll never know. The turn ended at the conclusion of this impulse. And with the II FRJ corps available to Germany next turn, option 3 for the conquest of Holland is now pretty much mute.

If the Germans adopted this plan, and the turn ended, they would be in for a very nasty surprise when the 2nd BEF returned to base to Rotterdam during the Return to Base step, which is before the Conquest step.

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

The Phoney War.

(03)JF40. The axis win the initiative and elect to move second.

(03)JF40. Allied #1.

The British 2nd BEF, which was returned to base (in England) at the conclusion of last turn, is put back to sea on transports in the North Sea.

(03)JF40. Axis #4.

OKW has, however, pointed out a third option that guarantees Rotterdam which is to invade and conquer Holland on the last impulse of the turn. If this is achieved then all of Holland, including Rotterdam, will surrender to Germans during the conquest phase at the end of the turn. Though still unoccupied if the allies move first next turn, the only means for the English to capture Rotterdam is through amphibious invasion. Since the only amphibious capability the Brits would (currently) have is the 2nd Inf division, any attempt to do so would be suicide since the 2nd division would be heavily outnumber by 4 regiments (i.e., notionals) that Germany would have be able to "move" in during last turn's surrender of Holland.

So, option 3 to take Holland and secure Rotterdam is a "sure thing" except for one major flaw, no matter the impulse if any action other that a pass is taken, there's a chance that the turn will continue. For example, for this current impulse (axis #10), there's "only" a 40% chance that the turn will end. This means that if the Germans were to invade Holland this impulse that there's a 60% chance that the Brits would be able to occupy Rotterdam in force. 60% by any reasonable standard is too high of a risk to invade Holland this impulse.

However, if the axis were to get another impulse this turn, max probability=0.6*0.3=0.18 and min probability=0.6*0.1=0.06, and if only Germany took a non-pass option then there would be a 90% chance that the turn would end on that impulse. So to Thus, there's somewhere between 6 to 18% chance that Germany will get another impulse. And if they do, there's a 90% that they can conquer Holland and secure Rotterdam this impulse.

Whether or not that 90% is acceptable, we'll never know. The turn ended at the conclusion of this impulse. And with the II FRJ corps available to Germany next turn, option 3 for the conquest of Holland is now pretty much mute.

If the Germans adopted this plan, and the turn ended, they would be in for a very nasty surprise when the 2nd BEF returned to base to Rotterdam during the Return to Base step, which is before the Conquest step.

Excellent point! Didn't think that through. Though, this would put a significant portion of Great Britain's sea lift within port-strike distance of German bombers.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

The Phoney War.

(03)JF40. The axis win the initiative and elect to move second.

(03)JF40. Allied #1.

The British 2nd BEF, which was returned to base (in England) at the conclusion of last turn, is put back to sea on transports in the North Sea.

(03)JF40. Axis #4.

OKW has, however, pointed out a third option that guarantees Rotterdam which is to invade and conquer Holland on the last impulse of the turn. If this is achieved then all of Holland, including Rotterdam, will surrender to Germans during the conquest phase at the end of the turn. Though still unoccupied if the allies move first next turn, the only means for the English to capture Rotterdam is through amphibious invasion. Since the only amphibious capability the Brits would (currently) have is the 2nd Inf division, any attempt to do so would be suicide since the 2nd division would be heavily outnumber by 4 regiments (i.e., notionals) that Germany would have be able to "move" in during last turn's surrender of Holland.

So, option 3 to take Holland and secure Rotterdam is a "sure thing" except for one major flaw, no matter the impulse if any action other that a pass is taken, there's a chance that the turn will continue. For example, for this current impulse (axis #10), there's "only" a 40% chance that the turn will end. This means that if the Germans were to invade Holland this impulse that there's a 60% chance that the Brits would be able to occupy Rotterdam in force. 60% by any reasonable standard is too high of a risk to invade Holland this impulse.

However, if the axis were to get another impulse this turn, max probability=0.6*0.3=0.18 and min probability=0.6*0.1=0.06, and if only Germany took a non-pass option then there would be a 90% chance that the turn would end on that impulse. So to Thus, there's somewhere between 6 to 18% chance that Germany will get another impulse. And if they do, there's a 90% that they can conquer Holland and secure Rotterdam this impulse.

Whether or not that 90% is acceptable, we'll never know. The turn ended at the conclusion of this impulse. And with the II FRJ corps available to Germany next turn, option 3 for the conquest of Holland is now pretty much mute.

If the Germans adopted this plan, and the turn ended, they would be in for a very nasty surprise when the 2nd BEF returned to base to Rotterdam during the Return to Base step, which is before the Conquest step.

Excellent point! Didn't think that through. Though, this would put a significant portion of Great Britain's sea lift within port-strike distance of German bombers.

True, but Rotterdam is a very good hex to defend for the CW. Put a couple of BB's and cruisers with the TRS to provide AA fire and to absorp losses. And if there is a FTR in the North Sea, rebase it into Rotterdam too...

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

ORIGINAL: Courtenay



If the Germans adopted this plan, and the turn ended, they would be in for a very nasty surprise when the 2nd BEF returned to base to Rotterdam during the Return to Base step, which is before the Conquest step.

Excellent point! Didn't think that through. Though, this would put a significant portion of Great Britain's sea lift within port-strike distance of German bombers.

True, but Rotterdam is a very good hex to defend for the CW. Put a couple of BB's and cruisers with the TRS to provide AA fire and to absorp losses. And if there is a FTR in the North Sea, rebase it into Rotterdam too...

Yes. That would be too much firepower for the Luftwaffe to contend with and for the Germans to count on as a threat to deter the Brits from using this tactic. Thanks to you and Courtenay pointing out the flaw in my thinking there. That would have been a real surprise to get hit with this, RTB tactic, when not expecting it. Now, that I'm aware of it I can "better", more correctly, evaluate the risk of a late turn invasion.

[ssiviour]

Each to their own opinion, but I don't consider Rotterdam a very good Hex to defend at all. Wrong side of the River and at the Extremes of CW FTR range. A determined German combinimg AC and Subs backed up with strong ART can make it down right costly for precious few CW units.

Antwerp, however, is far Superior.

[Courtenay]

ORIGINAL: ssiviour

Each to their own opinion, but I don't consider Rotterdam a very good Hex to defend at all. Wrong side of the River and at the Extremes of CW FTR range. A determined German combinimg AC and Subs backed up with strong ART can make it down right costly for precious few CW units.

Antwerp, however, is far Superior.

We are assuming that Belgium is neutral. Holding Rotterdam prevents Brussels being ZOCed out in one impulse. And until Germany DOWs Belgium, Rotterdam is completely behind a river. Holding Rotterdam lets the Allies grab the Dyle line, which can really slow down the German advance, and/or force the use of an O-chit to crack it.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Western Front. Blitzkrieg.

Axis #1.Germany "declares war" on Belgium, which produces a 1-chit added to the US Germany/Italy entry pool.

[Courtenay]

With the Netherlands already conquered, there is no good Belgian setup. However, I think that putting both Belgian INF in Antwerp is less bad than what you did. The problem with your setup is that it lets three German stacks attack the two units, whereas only two stacks can attack if both INF are in Antwerp. Putting both INF in Antwerp has the disadvantage that they are concentrated for German air strikes, but making the Germans use up air units on the Belgians is a good thing. I think the Germans will have to use less air against the spread out forces. Also, putting both units in Antwerp increases the chances of a disastrous Germans result, because then the Germans would have to kill two units, or face the Allies holding the Dyle line. There is almost no chance of that happening if the INF are spread out. The odds of holding the Dyle if they are together is low, but ensuring it doesn't happen requires a fair amount of German air power.