Witness to World War 2.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #1. Italy Declares War on France.

Without too much prodding needed from Hitler, because of France's vulnerable situation El Duce declares war on France in the hopes of "acquiring" more resources for Italy's idle factories.

Apparently, the isolationist in the US still hold sway as there's no reaction by the US, as was the case when Italy declared war on Great Britain. Compare this to the loss of two chits last turn due to the actions by Stalin (i.e., invading Persia and acquiring the Baltic States), and it's more than apparent that the isolationist faction in the US hold considerable political power and influence, no doubt fueled by German, Italian and Japanese diplomats and secretly by their agents.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #1. Italy. War Planning. Egypt.

But first, the Italians turn to Egypt and the continuation of Balbo's Desert Army's offensive to take Alexandria, Egypt and then the Suez Canal.

At worst, Balbo has over a 70% chance of capturing Alexandria assuming the British choose assault (i.e., 3 out of 4 shot versus the 1 out 2 his army had last time).

The question for the British is will they minimize Italy's chance of taking Alexandria by choosing assault or maximize the chance of of survival for the Egyptian Terr defenders.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #1. Italy. Alexandria, Egypt.

Miracle in the Desert. Great Britain opts to maximize Egyptian Terr survival and chooses the blitz CRT, basically conceding the loss of Alexandria (> 90%) to the Italians. And then (another) miracle happens, General Balbo and his desert army roll a 4, which results in the loss of their mot corps (since it was a blitz), the disorganization of the surviving attackers and Alexandria again holding, though at the cost of an Egyptian Terr.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #1. Germany. Planning Document: Combat Operations Again France.

The Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe plan to (continue to) strike against France will the iron is hot. In other words, attack in force while the weather is fine. There's only a 50% chance that it will continue fine next impulse pair.

Two ground strikes and three land combats have been pre-designated (PD). Again, the situation on the ground as the impulse unfolds can take from or add to these PD ground strikes and land combats. Note that all three PD LC's include attempted breakthroughs.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #1. Germany. PD A. Ground Strike #1.

The Luftwaffe ground strike against the three ground and three air targets in Paris was opposed by 1 of 2 fighter groups based in Paris. This opposition was then counter-intercepted by a Bf-109 fighter group. The French and German fighter pilots apparently just waved at each other instead of firing bullets, however, from Germany's perspective this was good enough as the Stuka bomber group got through to the target (now 5 instead of 6 six the fighter intercepted).

The ground strike was devastating for the French. All thee land units, including a French HQ-I, and a second French fighter group that remained on the ground were disorganized.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #1. Germany. PD B. Ground Strike #2.

The second of two PD Luftwaffe ground strikes was also effective, disorganizing 1 of 2 French ground units attacked. In the end both Luftwaffe ground strikes exceed expectations by 1.7 targets. That is, of the 5 ground and 2 air targets attacked (7 in total), the expected number disorganized was 3.3 and the actual number disorganized was 5.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #1. Italy. France. Target of Initiative (TOI). Ground Strike #3.

Waiting to flex their muscle a bit, an Italian bomber group in a surprise ground strike hit and disorganize the out of supply (OOS) French XII Garr corps holding up in the mountains on the Swill-French border.

However, Wehrmacht moves during the turn put the French garrison corps back in supply and so land combat against this now disorganize, but also now in-supply, unit was delayed until it can be put of supply again.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #1. Germany. France. PD 2, Land Combat 1.

The first of three German land combats took place against PD 2. Both sides flew ground support into the hex. Though heavily out gunned by a Luftwaffe Bf-109 fighter group, the French Potez 631 F/B group not only managed to get through to their target and provide defensive support but shot down the intercepting Bf-109 fighters. An embarrassment to the Luftwaffe to say the least. The only positive note was that only Bf-109 airframe was lost, the pilot survived.

However, the embarrassment at OKL wasn't the issue. The issue was that the French ground support moved PWIN down from ~100% to 83.8% and reduced the chance of achieving a breakthrough from ~90% to just over 60%. Though the Wehrmacht stilled prevailed and achieved a breakthrough, the French ground support resulted in the loss of a German mot corps and the disorganization of 3 of the 6 surviving attacking units.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #1. Germany. France. PD 1, Land Combat 2.

Luftwaffe fighters once again are embarrassed by outgunned French pilots. This time an unescorted French lend-lease Maryland bomber group manages to get by an intercepting Bf 109 fighter group and provide defensive ground support. This was the second defeat of Luftwaffe fighter when the odds were in their favor.

The French ground support, while only dropping PWIN from 100% to 97%, did significantly drop the chance of a greatly desired breakthrough from >90% to 64%. However, all of these concerns for the Germans were washed away when the attacking panzer units, supported by heavy artillery, rolled a 19.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #1. Germany. France. PD 3, Land Combat 3.

The third blitz attack goes well enough. Well actually the attacking Wehrmacht units rolled (just) well enough to achieve a critical breakthrough without loss or disorganization. Also, because of the success of the previous two blitz attacks, the two defending French units, though not destroyed initially, had no where to retreat and therefore end up surrendering to the Germans.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #1. Germany/Italy. France.

All in all a very successful impulse for the Germans, and the Italians in France.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #1. Japan. Strategic Bombing. Chungking, China.

What a difference a turn makes. The Flying Tigers and their Nationalist Chinese air group are unceremoniously downed (with pilot lost) by the escorting Japanese fighter group. The Japanese bomber group is also able to knock out 1 of 2 Chungking factories for the turn.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #1. Japan. China.

As stated previously the war in China has pretty much evolved into a war of maneuver on both sides. Of particular interest, or concern to the communist, are the infantry army and marine division from Umezu's Central China Army Group that is attempting to move around Mao's southern flank and towards Sian. This move will no doubt provoke a necessary response from Mao and a move to shore up his southern flank. Though, in an unprecedented display of cooperation between the communist and Nationalist, there's two Nationalist garrison and one infantry army that will likely "help" in protecting Mao's southern flank.

There are currently three Japanese army groups operating in China.

1. Army Group Terauch, which is (currently) operating in Northern China and against the communist. It is composed of 1 HQ-I inf reserve army, 3 MIL armies, 3 garrison armies, 1 mot corps, 1 mot div, 1 cav div, 2 warlord (corps) and supported by 1 VAL bomber and supported by 1 Ki-32 air group.

2. Army Group Umezu, which is (currently) operating in Central China and against the Nationalist. It is composed of 1 HQ-I reserve army, 3 inf armies, 1 mil army, 1 mar corps, 1 mar div, 1 gun div and supported by 1 Nate Fighter, 1 Ann and 1 Val bomber group.

3. Army Group Yamamoto, which is (currently) operating in Southern China and against the Nationalist. It is composed of 1 HQ-I reserve army, 1 inf army, 2 mil armies, 1 gar army, 1 mar div, 1 eng div, 2 inf div, 2 gun div, and supported by Ann fighter and Neil bomber group.

In Japan, and waiting for deployment to China and 1 of these 3 army groups, are 3 inf armies and 1 mountain division.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Allied #2. The French War Economy.

Things look bleak, very bleak for the French. The French army appears on the verge of collapse. The Germans and Italians look to be in position to overrun most, if not all, of the country. And the French war economy is dismal and expected to get even worse. No matter how the French government tries to put a positive spin on it, France is headed for defeat and there's nothing anyone can do about it.

September 8, 1940. 0100 hours. Prime Minster Winston Churchill phones and wakes Vice Admiral Ramsay from his slumber in the tunnels beneath the Dover Castle. Mr. Churchill utters two words, "Execute Dynamo". After hearing confirmation of receipt of his order from Vice Admiral Ramsay he hangs up the phone, pours himself a whiskey, lights up a cigar, stares out the window at 10 Downing Street and wonders if his days as Prime Minister are numbered. Then he wonders if the day of all British citizens as free citizens are numbered.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Allied #2. The Royal Navy.

The strength of Great Britain to defend is vested in her Royal Navy. After only being able to take combines last turn, Great Britain finally gets to take a badly needed naval. There are three almost equal in priority operations that the RN is called upon this impulse to support and/or carry out.

1. Reconstitute convoy routes to maximize war production and saved oil stockpiles.

2. Provide naval support to Operation Slingshot, which is an operation designed to throw the Italian desert army out of Egypt and "into the sea".

3. Provide naval support to Operation Dyaamo, which is the evacuation of the 1st BEF army from France.

1. Reconstitute convoy routes to maximize war production and saved oil stockpiles.

Italian submarines did do a number of Great Britain convoy routes last turn. The RN was able to get production almost back to 100%. 2 "unused" CP's were moved from the East Med to Malta and will be reorganized at the end of impulse by air (ATR). It is expected that with these 2 CP's that production will be brought back up to 100% sometime later in this turn.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Allied #2. Operation Dynamo.

After having to make some hard decisions, it was decided that the (CW) IV Mot corps would have to be left in France and be used as the rear guard for the evacuation of Gort's HQ-I and the XV mech corps. This corps, along with two French corps are now isolated and completely cutoff from the rest of whatever is left of the French army. These three trapped corps will have to hold a minimum of 6-weeks before there's any hope of getting them out. At best that's a long shot and at worse it's impossible.

Note: the real reason for leaving the CW IV mot corps was that the CW didn't have the sea lift for it. They only had two transports available for this mission. The other three (1 CW, 1 NEI and the Queens) were needed, or assigned, to beefing up CW defenses in Egypt. In fact, the only transport of those three that could have even be used was the CW transport, which was based at Malta. This transport was the only one of the three that could be used to get Wavell back to Egypt this turn and that was decided to be of significantly higher priority that saving the CW IV mot corps.

(Also) note the invasion of Corsica by the Italian V inf corps.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Allied #2. Operation Slingshot, Part 1.

The first part of Operation slingshot was to move Wavell and additional reinforcements to Egypt as quickly as possible. Wavell's HQ-A and the RSA MIL were moved directly to Alexandria and Suez City, respectively. With all the Italian CA's in the East Med used for shore bombardment last impulse there wasn't any organize Italian unit left that could be used to attempt intercept Wavell and his transport moving directly from Malta to Alexandria through the East Med.

Wavell was moved directly to port for one simple reason and that was not to expose his and his transport to the upcoming (potential) naval battle between the RN and RM in the East Med. It turns out that this was a wise decision.

The RSA MIL was moved directly to port in order to be in position to move and take part in land combat next allied impulse. The Italian desert army, all of which are disorganized, are vulnerable and Great Britain wishes to take advantage of that before the turn ends and they get a chance to reorganize.

The third unit coming to Egypt is a Canadian MIL that moved from Nova Scotia to Cape St. Vincent. It won't be able to get into Egypt until the return to base phase at the end of this turn.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Allied #2. Operation Slingshot, Part 2.

The second part of Operation Slingshot is to disrupt supply to the Italian army that's invaded Egypt. Of course a secondary objective to this is to sink as many Italian ships as possible.

First, CW and NED sub groups under the protection of twin engine RAF fighters attempt to locate and sink Italian supply convoys off the Italian Coast. Neither side finds.

And then in the East Med, it's the Italian cruisers and not the RN carrier force that find. Tempting as it was to use 9 SP's to inflict significant damage on the RN and French forces in the 0-box, the Italians not willing to risk being surprised in a subsequent round of combat by the strong RN carrier force operating in the 3-box decide that the smartest move is to avoid combat, thus ensuring supply to Balbo and his army in Egypt.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Allied #2. ATR Reorg.

The reaction of the Italian fighter from the tip of Sicily to the East Med (0-box) to cover the Italian supply convoy, allowed the RAF ATR group based in Malta to reorganize 2 CP's moved from the East Med to Malta this impulse. Otherwise, without fighter protection the ATR would have been subject to intercept by the Italian fighter group and would have not risked it, which would have left the two CP's disorganized.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #3. Weather.

A very nice weather roll for the axis, especially Germany and Italy in France. Not so nice for the allies.

I may have stated in a previous post that the chance of getting fine weather in the France (i.e., north temperate) was 50%. If I did I was mistaken. The chance for fine weather was (is) 60%, rain's 30% and storm's 10%. Well those are the chances without any die modifier, which currently there isn't.