Witness to World War 2.

[brian brian]

ORIGINAL: rkr1958
It won't be able to get into Egypt until the return to base phase at the end of this turn.

The TRS could do a Return-To-Base move during the turn, as a Naval Move subject to the Activity Limits. The cargo unit would then be disorganized in the port hex, as would the TRS. It could be subject to Interception during the move, if anything Axis was encountered along the way, and the Axis still had an organized unit in the zones crossed.

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

ORIGINAL: rkr1958
It won't be able to get into Egypt until the return to base phase at the end of this turn.

The TRS could do a Return-To-Base move during the turn, as a Naval Move subject to the Activity Limits. The cargo unit would then be disorganized in the port hex, as would the TRS. It could be subject to Interception during the move, if anything Axis was encountered along the way, and the Axis still had an organized unit in the zones crossed.

Yes. Excellent point. I jotted a reminder down if the Brits take a combine this turn to do that. Thanks!

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #3. Japan. Strategic Bombing. Sian, China.

Japan's strategic bombing campaign against Chinese factories, which initially was ineffective, seems now to be paying off in a big way. Japanese bombers knock out a second factory from production this turn.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #3. OKH. Planning Document: French Campaign.

OKH's planning objectives are simple this impulse.

(1) PD3 - capture Paris, (2) PD1 & PD2 - eliminate isolated pockets of French units and (3) put Wehrmacht and Italian armies in position to move against ALL of France.

Now objective (3) doesn't mean that Germany won't accept an armistice if approached by the French government, however, they wish to put their armies and those of the Italians to conquer all of France if the French troops try anything too desperate. Though, all talk by Hitler of an armistice with France is getting ahead of the assault to take Paris. If Paris holds (this turn) then that changes everything.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #3. Germany. PD3. Land Combat 1. Paris.

OKW & OKL threw everything they have left into their assault on Paris. This included engineering support to unhalf a Germany infantry corps attacking Paris across the west bank of the Seine, von Rundstedt providing +2 in HQ support, and the Luftwaffe providing 5 factors, or +0.8333 in ground support. All of this moved PWIN from the mid-80's to over 97%. The first loss, if any, would have had to be taken by the eng div. HQ support and Luftwaffe ground support decreased the risk to this eng div from 23.1% (i.e., 100 - PNL, PNL = Pr[No Loss]) to 9.6% and increased the chance of all attackers remaining organize (except for Rundstedt due to HQ support) from 66.5% to 85.7%.

Though a 97.3% PWIN is high, it's not 100, and alternately while a 2.7% chance of Paris holding is low, it's not 0%. However, this worry is made mute by a good roll to make the fractional, rolled by an "average" roll of 10 by the Wehrmacht. Paris falls, which loss for the Germans or any units disorganized, expect for Rundstedt's HQ-A which provided HQ support.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #3. Germany. PD1 & PD2. Land Combat 3 & 4. Paris.

The only "uncertainty" for the Wehrmacht in both these land combats was the 1% chance in the second of half of the attackers becoming disorganized. A roll of 15 in the second land combat alleviated that concern.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #3. Germany. Italy. France.

With the fall of Paris, the surrender of General Billotee, and the destruction of all French armies in the northern half of the country, France forms a new Cabinet with the "Hero of Verdun", General Petain in charge. Immediately Petain, through connections he made as ambassador to Spain, covertly puts out feelers to the possibility of a cease-fire with Germany followed by an armistice.

One of the last acts of France's Commander-in-Chief, General Weygand, before resigning just prior to Petain taking charge was to promote Charles de Galle from Brigadier to Major General. Newly promoted de Galle is outraged by Petain's defeatism and so decides to try to keep France in the fight against Germany. de Galle takes a plane from Vichy, where his armor regiment is currently based, to London. He lays open to Churchill Petain's attempt for an armistice with Germany and presents himself as the alternate to Petain as leader of France.

FYI. Note that Italy's V inf corps has "effectively" captured Corsica, rubbing salt into the already raw and bleeding French wounds.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Allied #4. Royal Navy (Combine/2 Naval Moves).

Operation Dynamo (Extended)

Admiral Ramsey has a simple plan, really to also get the British IV mot corps out. The Brits will take a naval, use 1 of the 2 naval moves to return (to base) the transport loaded with XV mech to Portsmouth. Then the Brits will use 1 of the 3 land moves to disembark Gort into Portsmouth and use him to reorg the transport RTB there. Then next impulse the Brits will take another combine, move the reorg TRS back out into the North Sea and evacuate the IV mot corps from France. The only sticking point is if the Germans eliminate the British IV mot corps between this allied impulse and the next. Ready to support the corps if attack by the Germans are 3 factors of defensive shore bombardment and 2 factors of defensive (air) ground support. Will that be enough, next impulse will tell.

Great Britain Convoys and Production.

Great Britain use their second naval move to move a CP from Malta to the North Atlantic. According to the CW production form, all the Brits need to do next impulse is to move the remaining CP at Malta into the Bay of Biscay in order to get the Kimberley RP in South Africa to the factory in Newcastle, Great Britain. The Brits do hope that the convoy routers go along with this and not "re-do" things and still wind up with idle factories.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Allied #4. RN. Italian Coast.

Once again the RN and NEI sub groups attempt to sink the Italian supply convoy in the Italian coast. And once again the Italians get the jump on the CW subs. However, both sub groups make all their rolls are are both aborted instead of seeing one damaged.

Of interest was that Germany reacted a NAV2 to the 2-box. In all honesty they overlooked that the two allied sub groups were covered by an RAF fighter group. The result of this mistake by the Germans was that they put their Nav air group at risk. Even with the two sub groups aborted, the CW presses on with the RAF fighter group in hopes of isolating and shooting down the German NAV.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Allied #4. RN. Italian Coast. Round 2.

Again, the Italians manage to surprise the Brits and do so with (barley) enough surprise points to avoid combat.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Allied #4. RN. East Med.

The RN needs to work on their search strategy! Once again the Italians find and the RN does not. The Italians get 6 SP's and use 4 of them to avoid combat.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Allied #4. British 8th Army. Egypt.

Now it's the Italian desert army that need a miracle to avoid eventual annihilation.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Allied #4. CW HQ Reorg.

Now all that needs to happen to save the British mot corps is for it to survive the next impulse and remain organize.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #5. Weather.

The fine weather continues.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #5. Japan. Strategic Bombing. Chungking, China.

A Japanese Val bomber group finished the job started earlier this turn by knocking out for the turn the second factory at Chungking. That's a total (so far) of 3 Chinese factories, or 3 PP's, knocked this turn. That's definitely going to make an impact on the Chinese war economy.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #5. OKH. France. Operations Planning Document.

The objectives this impulse are:

I. Destroy the CW mot before it can be evacuated.

II. Keep the option open for either an ceasefire/armistice or total conquest of France. A real possibility of the later is important, even if Germany accepts the armistice in order to keep the French honest and discourage them from launching suicidal, desperate attacks at land or sea.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #5. OKW Seeks Postponement of PD 2 & PD 4 Land Combat.

OKW successfully got OKH to agree to the postponement of PD 2 and PD 2 land combats.

PD 2 would require eng div support and that would carry a 46.4% chance of losing that division (i.e., 100% - 53.6%).

PD 4 PWN was just so extremely low that it was easy for OKW to convince OKH to postpone.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #5. Germany. PD1. Land Combat 1. Boulogne, France.

The Wehrmacht achieve a Pyrrhic victory. Technically a victory, but in every other sense a loss. With only a 8.2% chance of losing a unit, they lose the XL mech corps. With only a 13% of all (surviving) attackers being disorganized, they all are. And worse, is that the British IV mot survives and retreats back to Le Havre.

After seeing the results of this attack, which allowed the CW IV mot to retreat through Rouen, it was probably a mistake to not have carried through with the PD2 assault on Rouen. Even at the risk of losing the engineering division, the near-certain success of this postponed attack would have cut off the retreat of the British mot corps and resulted in its destruction/surrender. A valuable lesson learned and one that OKH isn't likely to forget.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #5. Germany. PD3. Land Combat 2. France [58,28].

Guderian shows how it's done. No problem with his blitz attack, which results in the destruction of another French army (i.e., 2 corps). The French in the south are also starting to panic and Petain pushes harder through his contacts in Spain for a ceasefire with German. However, German diplomats in Spain are silent about the possibility.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #5. The Current Situation in France.