Notes from a Small Island

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/19/45

TNNBT: Loading is essentially complete at Shikuka. More than 10,000 AV aboard ships. More than 125 units. All kinds of support ships and troops.

TNNBT is going to be a really, really big shew (he says in his best Ed Sullivan impression voice)

[JeffroK]

Who is counting out the hexes for a 10-12 day sail??

[BillBrown]

ORIGINAL: JeffroK

Who is counting out the hexes for a 10-12 day sail??

With LSTs in the TFs, looks like 50-60 hexes. [;)]

[BBfanboy]

No need - CR already confessed that Ryukyus and possibly some nearby islands are on the list. My only question is whether the Bonins will also be on the list to guard the southern flank and inhibit transfer of aircraft southward/northward.

[Canoerebel]

The game has been littered with objectives chosen and discarded (and sometimes re-chosen). So all bets are off in that regard.

4/20/45

TNNBT: All TFs weigh anchor (huzzah!) and make...three hexes. I think the issue was that some of the replenishment (AO) TFs had used max points to load during the turn. Hopefully, things will pick up a bit tomorrow.

I might've been a bit optimistic in my judgment of days in transit, too. No doubt there will be issues due to refueling or other things. A better guesstimate might've been 15 days.

[Canoerebel]

4/21/45

TNNBT: The armada made six hexes today. A second armada of small TFs carrying cadres or last-minute arrivals rendezvoused at Uruppu Jima, where they refueled from prepositioned TKs.

The armada will continue in this fashion - the main group under the protection of Death Star, and a second group to the "outside." That will be short-legged ships (especially LCI gunboats) mated with an AO or two. That's to allow efficient refueling and to ensure that the main armada isn't slowed by the process.

Obvert: He's been thinking through things for a long time. He's been watching carefully. And now he's implementing his reaction plan.

I've been thinking through things. I've been watching him. And I have my own measures and countermeasures in place.

Erik doesn't seem to have any detection on Death Star and the Herd, but he knows something massive has left Shikuka, where the number of ships suddenly dropped by something like 2,000. He had previously surmised that Hokkaido wasn't the target, and has withdrawn troops from the front lines. He knows my ships haven't entered the Sea of Japan, so he knows Korea's east coast isn't the target.

He's had a mobile reserve cruising around for awhile, consisting of at least 125th Division. I think he's prepared to place lots of troops on to ships and to land then at bases he deems vulnerable or likely. The SigInt today included one such move (there hasn't been SigInt about troops inbound to Formosa for many, many, many months).

He'll know the likely targets: Yellow Sea ports, China coast, Okinawa, Formosa, Hainan Island, Philippines or even Borneo or Vietnam. Some of those he won't really care about - he'll concentrate on the most vulnerable and most important.

The invasion troops prepped for five targets - two primary, two secondary, and one "emergency." The latter is available just in case Erik outguesses me x10.

I've been conserving my longest-ranged recon, and swapping some units over to the incredible Superfort recon (range something like 44). In about five days, I'll light up a variety of targets - some to nourish Erik's thinking (such as Formosa) and some genuine. The recon will come from Moulmein on one end and Hokkaido on the other. I can cover just above everything in between.

For instance, he's had shipping at Samah, on Hainan Island. That's a logical and desirable target, so I'll definitely do some recon there.

[JohnDillworth]

[/quote]

Korea's east coast isn't the target.

Well, there goes my guess.........2nd guess was the east coast of China

[ChuckBerger]

I think he's going to grab Shikoku. It's a great way of ramping up pressure on Japan.

[MakeeLearn]

Big picture map?

[MakeeLearn]

The scuttlebutt going around the chow hall is somewhere between Formosa and Kyushu.

[JohnDillworth]

I think he's going to grab Shikoku. It's a great way of ramping up pressure on Japan.

Good guess. One thing Dan is pretty consistent about and that is rarely doing the same thing twice. Last game was the Formosa/South China route....So I will discount that route

[Canoerebel]

4/22/45

It's fun to read your predictions and analysis. Very fun. Your hunches are good ones and varied, covering most of the likely targets. I hope Erik's hunches are similarly divided and that he feels strongly that his defenses are too spread out - too many targets to cover adequately. I'll know better when recon begins lighting up various potential targets in five or six days or whenever TNNBT Armada draws close enough to warrant it.

TNNBT:...and that might be a month or two. Today, the Armada made two hexes. I can find no reason whatsoever for this lack of progress. There are no lagging TFs set to follow that might've acted as a ball and chain. And not a single ship in the entire armada expended a single Ops point. Very strange...and maddening, of course. Speed counts now, but I'm at the mercy of the AI (no need in you guys positing possibilities - I think I've covered everything).

I did take the precaution of separating out all the short-legged ships - LCIs, one small xAP that snuck into the invasion force, and DD Vampire with 2500 endurance. These ships will report to the Cadre TF that is steaming south just "outside" Death Star...and making better speed than DS, wouldn't you know.

There's peril in having TFs apart from DS, but it's one I feel I have to take. If this invasion proceeds at two hexes per turn, Erik will have time to move armies to likely beachheads. Darn it.

SEAC: The Allies are advancing down through the jungle, and the enemy is retiring. For a week, I've been searching for indications that Erik might reverse course. He's looking and evaluating. He's wondering if the bulk of the Allied army will draw far away on the yellow road, leaving itself vulnerable to a rear attack by his army. So I'm watching carefully and taking some precautions to ensure that the rear (Moulmeain/Rangoon) has real teeth.

[Canoerebel]

4/22/45

Strategic Map: The massive Allied base of operations in the Sea of Okhotsk is apparent. Can the Allies shift nimbly and effectively? The nimbly is in real question, with the Armada moving at about less than four hexes per day after the firs three days.

[tarkalak]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I think he's going to grab Shikoku. It's a great way of ramping up pressure on Japan.

Good guess. One thing Dan is pretty consistent about and that is rarely doing the same thing twice. Last game was the Formosa/South China route....So I will discount that route

He did X, so he won't do it again is a dangerous assumption. If Canoerebel had deemed the Formosa/South China "best" for this game, he would have taken it, in my humble opinion.

[JeffroK]

Shanghai, or thereabouts.

There will be a sodding great Red Army on the northern flank very soon.

[nicwb]

We should take a pool - the winner get's naming rights to Canoerebel's next operation ?

[MakeeLearn]

"What did you say they call this place?"

[Bif1961]

You might want to put the major invasion TF/s on full speed and see if that makes them go faster than the maddening 2 hexes?

[RangerJoe]

You don't want to increase the damage on the invasion TFs which can slow them down nor increase the fuel consumption requiring them to pause and refuel which can then take longer overall.

The Bonins/Ryukyus would cut off the SRA and not be too close to the massive, overlapping air defenses on the Southern Home Islands. This would also open up the rest of the Home Islands to strategic bombing and naval bombardments, hopefully to concentrate on aircraft factories. Then, by taking the small islands off the Home Islands and building up their airbases, that could allow PTs to infest the Home Island waters to interrupt any minesweeping operations. It would also curtail enemy Naval Search and ASW so that could allow submarines safer operational areas. Then China, Korea, and Shikoku are open. Airborne attacks could allow a toehold for other units to reinforce and then the Cavalry can exploit the openings on the mainland if there are minimal garrisons in place.

Taking China (at least to the rail lines) would imperil all of the units in the mountains as well as cutting off most supplies from the north, it would also curtail the flow of resources, oil, and fuel from the SRA.

[BBfanboy]

The stalled TFs may be balking at going into an area where enemy aircraft are operating. I would try setting all TFs to Direct/Absolute routing. Giving them a waypoint near the target also seems to keep them moving in that direction, even if they make contact with an enemy TF (which would cause them to RTB otherwise).