Notes from a Small Island

[CaptBeefheart]

I like CR's style of play: Take a deep target and then worry about securing the LOC later. It makes for some interesting reading. I'm figuratively popping some corn now.

Cheers,
CB

[Canoerebel]

The invasion of Sikhalin Island in June '44 is a good case in study. It did catch Erik by surprise and it did (eventually and at great cost) afford the Allies a massive base of operations right next to the Home Island. But the venture came too close to failing....and Erik's uber air force has done a fine job in countering the threat of Allied strategic bombing. His air force prevented the op from turning into a decisive Allied victory. Nevertheless, it was a good idea, I think. Taking over the game in March '44, with both sides having flush OOBs, and Erik being very dug in and prepared for anything in SWPac, I felt like I had to jumpstart the Allies and get them somewhere deep fast. Had I chosen another vector - say Java - I think I'd have ended up just as mired down but much further away.

Regarding this next op, I'm having the usual doubts and fears that I experience whenever a long-developing plan finally gets underway. Has Erik sniffed things out? Are the primary targets too strongly defended? Will I bog down? Should I have chosen safer targets? Usually, I just "trust in the process" and proceed. But Allied recon will help me select the ultimate target(s) - which one or more of the five my guys are prepped for.

[adarbrauner]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/23/45

I'm enjoying reading your guesses, reasoning and analysis. Thanks for posting.

TNNBT: Death Star and the Herd move five hexes, a cumulative of 16 since departing Shikuka four days ago.

How's weather there?

Bad weather/rough seas are IRL primary reasons for a dispersed and delayed/slowed big convoy, I think;

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The invasion force is carrying 1.9 million supply in supply-dedicated xAKs and AKs. There's a lot more embedded with the various transport/amphibious TFs carrying both units and supply.

That's the response I was seeking to evoke.

I knew CR was moving massive amounts of supply.

In mid 44 I started forming what I refer to as SupDivs (Supply Divisions).
They consist of 40 liberty or victory ships with 8 escorts.
Each carries 250k supply and 20k fuel (slightly more for divs comprised of victory ships.

In August of '45 I now have 18 SupDivs operational.

When I landed at Okinawa I brought 1 million supply to dump there and another 2 million to deliver to Hangchow in China.

Being able to bring that much supply for an op allows the Allies to go where they want without concern for the supply line.

[RangerJoe]

Against the computer, you should see the effect of 200,000 supplies dumped into the Chinese port of Hong Kong in May of 1942 . . .

Supplies are almost everything since without them, you can do very little. As Gen. Robert H. Barrow, USMC (Commandant of the Marine Corps) noted in 1980 "Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics."

https://www.military-quotes.com/forum/l ... -t511.html

[MakeeLearn]

"Professional logistics with amateur tactics is just supplies for the enemy".
Me


"Airplanes are interesting toys, but of no military value."
Ferdinand Foch

[Canoerebel]

4/24/45 and 4/25/45

TNNBT: On the 24th, Death Star and The Herd moved only three hexes. I nearly wept with despair. A cumulative of 19 hexes in five days. At that rate, the approach was going to take a month; Erik would have bonus time aplenty to move ships, men, base forces, etc. around the map. Too much time.

Then, on the 25th, DS & TH made six hexes. The clouds lifted. The sun shone again. 25 hexes in six days. I can live with that.

DS & TH are now SE of Tokyo and making, generally, for Chichi Jima. Erik has full info and is watching carefully. Thus far no signs of organized opposition.

Allied subs showed up in numbers today around the coast of Indochina, in the Philippines and in other likely places. There were clashes in which I lost two subs and Erik lost an AV (and aircraft), an E and an SC. The exchange is satisfactory, because the main thing is to give him info to mull over. The more info the better. The more inconsistent the better.

In upgrading a recon squadron from P-38 to Superfort, I forgot that upgrading automatically sets range to the max. That crazy squadron has a range of 55 and perhaps 500 bases and dot hexes within range...and chose one of the most significant possible. Yipes! Tomorrow, recon from Burma will light up Indochina and Hainan Island while squadrons from Hokkaido do the same for coastal China, the west coast of Korea and Formosa.

[HansBolter]

Shouldn't a four hex a day average be expected when many of the TFs have beaching craft moving at 10 knots?

Regular slow downs from that average would be expected for refueling the short legged escorts.

It's the days you move six hexes that are surprising to me. TFs with 10 knot ships down't get 3/3 movement.

Shouldn't they only get 2/2 or at best 2/3 movement?

I have seen this same effect where TFs in a heard seem to get to move faster than they should.

Hopefully some of you with a better handle on game mechanics than me can correct any misunderstanding I have here.

[tarkalak]

From memory, if the task force didn't have enough move to go into an adjesent hex, but still had some move (say travelled 10 miles), the distance traveled will still be saved and utilized in the next pulse/day. So a TF can get an extra hex for no apparent reason.

[Canoerebel]

The slowest ship in the entire armada is the LST, which makes 11 knots. It regularly covers six hexes per turn.

I'm carefully managing fuel so that it doesn't become a problem. Thus far it hasn't been an issue because all tFs are set to home port Kushiro, which isn't far away.

So 5 or 6 hexes per day would be the expected speed of the armada.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The slowest ship in the entire armada is the LST, which makes 11 knots. It regularly covers six hexes per turn.

I'm carefully managing fuel so that it doesn't become a problem. Thus far it hasn't been an issue because all tFs are set to home port Kushiro, which isn't far away.

So 5 or 6 hexes per day would be the expected speed of the armada.

Well, I guess if the LST TFs have 2/3 instead or 2/2 movement rates they would make 3 hexes in each phase because cruise and max speed for those ships is the same so they would be moving at the max speed when set to Mission Speed.

Maybes its the 10 knot LCTs and LCIs I'm thinking of that only get TF movement rates of 2/2.

[Barb]

LSTs have a cruise speed of 9 (used in Normal/Cruise setting) so this translates into 216 nautical miles traveled per 24 hours - that is 5.4 hexes per turn. So it should be moving along at (5,5,6,5,6, repeat) hexes per turn in total.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Barb

LSTs have a cruise speed of 9 (used in Normal/Cruise setting) so this translates into 216 nautical miles traveled per 24 hours - that is 5.4 hexes per turn. So it should be moving along at (5,5,6,5,6, repeat) hexes per turn in total.

So stated task force movement rates mean nothing and TFs actually move distances in nautical miles accumulating progress toward the next hex as LCUs do?

Then what is the point of the stated hex movement rates for task forces?

Have to wonder how reactions impact this.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

So stated task force movement rates mean nothing and TFs actually move distances in nautical miles accumulating progress toward the next hex as LCUs do?

Then what is the point of the stated hex movement rates for task forces?

Well, yes and no. In most cases, the number of hexes shown for movement are and will be accurate. However, sometimes TFs will move an additional "make up hex" based on average speed in cases where movement has been constant and does not evenly break down to the 40-mile hex size. I think the example is typically something like this: an 12-knot ship moves 144 nautical miles in 12 hours. This is 3.6 hexes. In a single phase, they will only move 3 hexes... but over 2 phases, you may end up getting 7 hexes of movement out of them even though the displayed speed is only 3 hexes per phase.


It's also worth noting that TFs full of LSTs moving at full speed will not burn up all that much additional fuel compared to cruise speed. Only the distance moved beyond the ship's cruise speed burns Endurance (and thereby, fuel) at a x6 rate. For the non-LST ships in the TF, they will not be exceeding their actual cruise speed. Only the LSTs will burn additional fuel, and not that much besides as their full speed is not much higher than cruise speed. It is definitely feasible to run LST TFs on full speed for at least 3 days without worrying about fuel for even a moderate return journey, if not 4 or even 5. More than enough for the final approach distances.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: Barb

LSTs have a cruise speed of 9 (used in Normal/Cruise setting) so this translates into 216 nautical miles traveled per 24 hours - that is 5.4 hexes per turn. So it should be moving along at (5,5,6,5,6, repeat) hexes per turn in total.

So stated task force movement rates mean nothing and TFs actually move distances in nautical miles accumulating progress toward the next hex as LCUs do?

Then what is the point of the stated hex movement rates for task forces?

Have to wonder how reactions impact this.

The displayed speed in knots is accurate when your TF setting is Full Speed or Cruise Speed. When you have the setting at Mission Speed, the display (including the individual-ship display) defaults to the max speed for each ship, so you cannot see the cruise speed. This fools you if you are not aware of it.

[HansBolter]

Thanks for the succinct explanations Loka and BB.

I had always struggled to understand why TFs with 4/5 movement rates set to Mission speed move 9 hexes in a turn when the Mission setting should be Cruise and the stated movement rate should limit the TF to 8 hexes.

Ten years in on this game and probably at least 15 in on the game engine and I still need to learn to see those TF movement rates as approximations, not absolutes.

It's no wonder this game is so daunting to newbs.

[Canoerebel]

4/26/45

TNNBT: DS and The Herd moved 5 hexes today, now at 30 cumulative. One more day of full movement and then all TFs will rendezvous and top off fuel before heading to the beaches. The point of assembly will be west of Chichi Jima, from which point everything from the Philippines to the Yellow Sea will be within range.

Recon lit up 20 bases from the north end of the Yellow Sea to the Indochina Coast. This gave Erik an eyeful and, as he no doubt suspects, includes some real targets mixed in with decoys. The good thing is that he clearly isn't defending in depths. Many bases are lightly protected. He might have reserves strategically placed to respond to likely beachheads in short order, but I think his defenses are relatively weak - at least at the beach.

I haven't made any final decisions as to the ultimate target. All five are in play. Final decision likely made in two or three days, as the refueling pause ends.

[adarbrauner]

My bet is:
1 Shikoku
2 Shanghai Area
3 Southern Korea
4 Okinawa-Ryukyus

Shikoku means, easier to defend after being seized,+ cut with all the South + excellent, the best bombing stage.
Cons, it may be heavily defended, and the as it is difficult for JApan to bring in teinforcements, the same for Allies who shall be bottled there easily without expansion.

[Canoerebel]

4/27/45

TNNBT: Death Star and the Herd made good speed and is now two hexes ENE of Chichi Jima. During this turn, I refueled nearly all ships under 4k endurance. The armada will slow tomorrow, allowing the lagging TFs to catch up. Those include a CV, two CVEs, and a host of LSTs and slower ships that sailed "outside" the main group. Now the main course is shifting from SW to W temporarily, so the outside ships are "behind" by about seven hexes. Tomorrow likewise will be a refueling day; then the show really moves toward the beaches.

For two turns, Allied recon has been lighting up targets in Indochina (Tourane, Hue, Vinh, Haiphon, Dalat), southern China (Pakoi, Kwangchoan), Hainan Island (Samah, Kiungshan), Tawain (Karenko shows no garrison!), north China (Ningpo, Wenchow, Haichow, Chefoo, Shanhaiguan, Antung), west Korea (Chinmapo, Kaishe, Gunzan) and Japanese islands (Aogashima and Hachi jima). That's alot for Erik to chew over. A few more unreconned targets will be selected tomorrow.

THe picture I see is that key bases are lightly protected, including one of the primary targets. Movement dots show lots of units movement from north Japan to south. No doubt these will board ships to reinforce likely targets. But the time is growing short now. The armada is about 35 hexes from the two primary targets (allowing for a slightly longer course to avoid major enemy concentrations). Two of the secondary targets are under 30 hexes. The tertiary target, which I won't recon but I feel sure is vacant or lightly garrisoned, is less than 40 hexes away. Refueling will slow me down a bit, but as Death Star nears the beachheads, Erik won't be able to bring in reinforcements (I think), as DS will control the vicinity.

[MakeeLearn]

GO GIT 'EM