[2.10.19 - RELEASED Scenario] Scenario for Testing: OP Eagle Guardian

[gpotter511]

Scenario: Operation Eagle Guardian, Release Version 3
Focus Area:Baltic States, Western and Central Europe, and the Mediterranean
Scenario Length:6 Days, 12 Hours
Side:NATO (Single-Side)
STEAM Link: https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/ ... 1651845487

UPDATE 2/10/19: Operation Eagle Guardian has been released! Version 3 of this scenario is attached. Thanks so much to everyone who has offered feedback so far. Updates in this release:

• (General) Briefing and Description Updated
• (General) Victory Point Scheme Overhauled
o (NATO) Various adjustments to point values for destruction of certain Russian combatants; point value now awarded for destruction of Russian fixed-wing AEW.
o (NATO) Point value substantially reduced for saving RyanAir Flight 441
o (Russia) Various adjustments to point values for destruction of certain NATO combatants; point value now awarded for destruction of NATO ISR aircraft.
• (NATO) RAF Tornados and associated loadouts removed from RAF Akrotiri, consistent with real-world conditions
• (NATO) F-35 aircraft in Norway and UK set to “novice” proficiency due to outstanding technical limitations of delivered F-35s
• (NATO) Removed FGS Erfurt reflecting recent collision in the Kiel Canal
• (NATO) Removed six (6) Lynx Mk88 helicopters as BRAUNSCHWEIG-class motherships were not eligible; added two (2) P-3C Maritime Patrol Aircraft and increased relevant munitions
• (NATO) Restocked the Charles de Gaulle’s magazines for AAM, buddy stores
• (NATO) Added Meteor armament for Project Centurion Typhoons at RAF Coningsby
• (NATO) Restocked AGM-114K Hellfire missiles at Amari and Lielvarde ABs
• (NATO) SM-3 missiles added to USS PORTER and USS DONALD COOK consistent with ABM mission
• (NATO) Doubled the magazine stocks of Italian carrier GIUSEPPE GARIBALDI
• (Russia) Added Pantsir-1 SHORAD systems to assist in defense of Kaliningrad S-400 battery
• (Russia) Removed impractical number of AA-13 Arrow missiles for MiG-31 interceptors and replaced with AA-9 Amos. Adjusted relevant scripts to reflect.
• (Russia) AA loadout for Su-35s at Voronezh adjusted

UPDATE 2/4/19: The attachment has been replaced with Version 2 of the scenario, accounting for initial feedback from many kind reviewers. Specific updates:

* A fix has been identified and implemented for Russian forces prematurely declaring NATO "hostile"
* Helicopters intended for deployment to docked naval vessels have now been named after their intended mothership
* Weather adjusted consistent with forecast for 10FEB for Tallinn, Estonia
* Issue corrected that caused Russian Kilos to run surfaced
* RAF Nimrods removed from scenario due to real-world obsolescence

Original Message:

NOTE: This version of the scenario is released for public testing, and players may encounter critical faults or balance issues. Bug reports, positive and negative feedback, and technical critiques are eagerly desired.

This scenario reflects a conflict over control of the Baltic States between NATO, its regional partners, and the Russian Federation. The scenario pits Moscow's anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy and “home field advantage” against the more-capable - but smaller and readiness-impaired - forces of NATO and its partners.

NATO's goal - the player's - is to prevent a Russian "fait accompli" invasion of the Baltic States, wherein Russian forces defeat NATO ground forces and sufficiently degrade NATO's ability to liberate its easternmost members. You must degrade and defeat Russian military assets essential to Moscow's battle plan and retake key facilities necessary for a sustained counterassult within the allotted timeframe.

The scenario also attempts to model how conventional conflict can escalate into nuclear conflicts, and you must avoid unnecessary escalation. Nuclear weapons may be employed under certain circumstances, but at extreme risk. Strategic nuclear exchange will result in scenario failure.

Players should utilize the beginning of the scenario to deploy air and naval forces to support your battle plan. Take the opportunity to assign support helicopters to appropriate naval vessels early in the scenario, as this opportunity is temporary. Please also ensure that Special Messages are active, and carefully review the Side Briefing and any Special Messages.

All of you have my sincere thanks and hopes that you will enjoy this scenario. Thank you!

[Whicker]

well, wow. Lot of stuff in this.

Just looking it over, there are deactivated missions for all my sams and radars - I should just roll with it and let them become active when they are set to activate?

What about the towed array mission? is it there to protect the submission next to it? is it intended that I leave them both there?

one minor issue in the briefing - `MOSKVA son`:
`A surface action group (SAG) centered on CG MOSKVA son course for the Eastern Mediterranean`

[gpotter511]

Thanks very much, Whicker! Adding that to the punch list.

EW+AD will come on at a designated time, though you can turn them on whenever you want.

The Towed Array Patrol is intended to support the Deterrence Patrol, though again, arrange your forces however you like.

The pre-set missions reflect known standing relevant NATO activities. Beyond that, you should arrange your forces however you think makes sense to respond to the deployments you're seeing. The scenario is generous with time to deploy your forces, so you don't have to rush.

Additionally, I have reuploaded the save while correcting for some bombers that were available too early. Whicker, you should not need to restart, though as intended the B-52s at Barksdale are not meant to be available for 12 hours from scenario start.

[morphin]

Very interesting. Thank you

[templar42]

This scenario is epic! Really enjoying it and the war hasn't even started yet.

Should the Kilo SSK ~65nm SE of Malta be stationary and surfaced? I launched an RQ-4 from Sigonella to help establish the surface picture in the Med and very quickly detected it on radar.

[gpotter511]

Thanks, Morphin, and great to hear, templar!

No, it should not be surfaced. Kilo-class has been temperamental. I've got a solution for that, but was wondering if it would present as a problem first. Adding to the punch list! Thanks.

[templar42]

ORIGINAL: gpotter511

Thanks, Morphin, and great to hear, templar!

No, it should not be surfaced. The Kilos have been temperamental. I've got a solution for that, but was wondering if it would present as a problem first. Adding to the punch list! Thanks.

My pleasure! I've played through a few hours but I think unintentional hostilities have erupted. Around 1750Z, I had a Rafale over water near Kaliningrad and the S-300 battery just south of Kaliningrad NB launched SAMs at it. When I returned fire, all Russian units became hostile, but I didn't get any special messages. A little later on, I got the Ryanair message, as though hostilities hadn't yet started. So I suspect there may be an issue with how quickly one or more SAMs in the enclave are allowed to engage NATO forces.

[gpotter511]

Most interesting. Yes, that is unintentional hostilities. I have not had that happen before. I will investigate.

No worries if not, but do you have a save that you can send that either immediately precedes or follows this event?

Are others experiencing a start to hostilities in similar fashion?

[templar42]

ORIGINAL: gpotter511

Most interesting. Yes, that is unintentional hostilities. I have not had that happen before. I will investigate.

No worries if not, but do you have a save that you can send that either immediately precedes or follows this event?

Are others experiencing a start to hostilities in similar fashion?

Sorry I don't, sadly, I just made a note of the time of 1750z in case you had a LUA script set to change ROE at a certain time. Earlier in the scenario I had a recon Rafale fly along the coastline at 1900ft to identify SAM locations and it wasn't fired on, so I guessed there might have been a scripted change in doctrine at some point. Or perhaps the AI just didn't identify the aircraft as NATO until the time that it fired the SAMs.

[RSMC]

Gspotter - impressive work, very challenging to keep track of things with many small packets of forces.

A few details for your punch list:
Italian carrier Garibaldi only has 6 AN/ALQ-164 DECM pods on board - all harrier loadouts require them and you have 8 harriers.

12 Su-25SM3 Frogfoot at Voronezh with reserve loadouts not assigned to any missions - should they be used?

1 Il-38N May at Severomorsk with ASW loadout not assigned to any missions - should it be used?

For those unfamiliar with which ships handle which aircraft it would be useful to have the helicopters, and even the Italian Harrier / UK Lightnings have the callsigns of their typical host ships.

[gpotter511]

Thanks very much, templar and RSMC!

Templar - that's very helpful, thank you. There is not a relevant script that would cause that activity, so I'll have to investigate what's causing that. I have observed that NATO ASW aircraft automatically fire on Russian subs, so that's a known conflict-causer from the player side - but not from the Russian.

I assume this is gamebreaking for you, but if you do have the means to go back and avoid this event, please continue - would love your feedback as it continues. Otherwise I will alert you when I've resolved the issue.

RSMC - very helpful, thank you. Is the suggestion to change the Harriers to, e.g. "Garibaldi #1-8", the F35Bs "Queen Elizabeth #1", etc.?

Any Russian unit without an assignment will factor into scripted events later in the scenario, and their use will disrupt those scripted events. Are you loading the game in the scenario editor? FYI that the Russian side is scripted and not intended for player use.

[Gunner98]

I have observed that NATO ASW aircraft automatically fire on Russian subs

this is caused by a default doctrine setting: Weapons Control Status ASW: FREE. Before hostilities start you should change that to TIGHT or even HOLD. For the non-player side you should Lua it back to FREE once hostilities start.


If I have a chance I'll dig into this one, sounds interesting..


B

[RSMC]

gspotter,

Yes, that is my suggestion for naming the aircraft and helos.

Also, yes I peek behind the curtain in editor mode.

With regards to the ASW doctrine pointed out by gunner - it cuts both ways - an ASW patrol assumes weapons free rather than tight or hold for ASW weapons, on the other side the Kilos will try to engage an investigating ASW aircraft with their SAMS. One more reason to keep them deep at the start, I saw 2 on the surface south of Sigonella at the start, I caught templar's note and changed my patrol doctrine, then the P-8 got shot down by a kilo.

Also, point of clarification - do Polish forces count as local for reacting to "little green men"? or do I have to use the national ground forces?

[templar42]

Hmm... this time, at exactly at the same time (14:25:03) as the Ryanair event, I had an MQ-4C approaching the (presumed) Russian battlegroup near Souda. It was destroyed by an SA-N-6A missile. I got the flash message "NATO Air Command reports the destruction of a NATO ISR aircraft.", but I didn't observe the launch and hadn't yet identified the ships as Russian, so hostilities didn't start and side postures didn't change.

I then launched a Greek F-16 from Souda and had it approach the Russian fleet with radar active at 1900ft to ID them visually below the clouds. The Slava launched at it around 14:42 from 23nm out, and now I have 'side: Russian Federation is now considered hostile'.

I've attached the save from 14:42 (unfortunately I didn't save at 14:25). Assuming the battlegroup isn't intended to start open hostilities at that point, I'd guess there's something about the scripting behind the Ryanair flight event which makes other SAM-equipped units engage. My MQ-4C had been Emcon active for hours, so at a guess the Russian Federation side must have had it identified as a NATO aircraft.

[Primarchx]

Wow, this is a great start! Here are a couple of initial observations on my first pass at the beginning of the game...

- Weather: Moderate cloud deck at 2-7k' is going to make a lot of aerial weapons that require guidance or target detection from above 10k' hard to use. I didn't see a weather-changing Event, so this lasts the whole week.
- The USN Med Burkes (Porter and Cook) are both Aegis BMD ships and would likely have a stock of SM-2/3/6 SAMs aboard.
- UK Nimrods are well out of service.
- There are a lot of Single-Unit Airfields in areas that would likely get attacked in the Baltics, both Russian and NATO.

[Gunner98]

- UK Nimrods are well out of service.

And the P-8s are not in service yet. https://www.raf.mod.uk/aircraft/p-8a/

[templar42]

After a fresh play for about 10 hours of game time, I think there's definitely something wrong with the Russian ROE, and definitely a bug in the Ryanair script. I have a theory as to what it is and I've attached two saves.

This time I didn't do any probing around Russian units until 2200. Before that time, I acted on the special messages about little green men, and, by, lucky patrolling, destroyed the SA-24 unit that should attack the Ryanair flight. I eventually got a report that the flight had landed safely and that the SA-24 team had been arrested, and 500 victory points.

At 2200, I had a Rafale under the clouds identifying Russian units on the Estonia / Latvia border that an F-22 had detected. One of the Growlers launched SAMs at it but the rest of the Russian side didn't go hostile. At 2209, a fresh SAM launch destroyed the Rafale, but at the exact same second, the Ryanair flight being hit message triggered. I've attached a save for each of these timestamps.

So I think there are two problems:

(a) Something in the Russian ROE permits a premature launch against an identified NATO aircraft before war erupts (unless 2200 is the scheduled start, but this doesn't explain the other two situations in the thread above) - I'm guessing one of the Russian land units had good enough optics to identify the Rafale maybe, which was what triggered the launch.

(b) The Ryanair flight being hit event appears to fire when any NATO aircraft is destroyed before war erupts.

[daveoreno]

At first glance I must say I am truly in awe of the work you have done here! [&o]

Dave

[gpotter511]

Thanks very much, all, for the continued feedback and kind words!

Templar - thanks very much for really digging into this. The feedback is extremely helpful. I will continue investigating.

RMSC - the intention is that you would utilize Estonian and Latvian forces to engage "little green men" as they are identified. NATO Battlegroups are not authorized for this activity.

Primarchx - thanks very much. I'll probably revisit the weather, as I set it a loooong time ago in developing this scenario. Let me know if it ends up being an impediment for NATO forces. And thanks for the tip on the Nimrods!

Gunner98 - thanks very much. Your feedback would be greatly appreciated. Re: the P-8s, those are US Navy P-8s deployed to Europe rather than RAF P-8s.

[Primarchx]

ORIGINAL: gpotter511

Thanks very much, all, for the continued feedback and kind words!
...
Primarchx - thanks very much. I'll probably revisit the weather, as I set it a loooong time ago in developing this scenario. Let me know if it ends up being an impediment for NATO forces. And thanks for the tip on the Nimrods!
...

My pleasure. You've put together an intriguing story. Now the fun will be making it work in Command! After reviewing NATO aircraft they have a lot of inertial/GPS guidance assisted munitions that should be, for all intents and purposes, weather agnostic. There are a few LGBs and high altitude IIR weapons (Ophers) that may have an issue. Not sure what's in use by Russian aircraft, but there's a good chance their PGMs will suffer more than NATO in bad weather in this scenario.

The good news is that updating weather in Command is a cinch. There's even a pinned topic in the Lua forum (http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4435326 covering how to do it.