Notes from a Small Island

[MakeeLearn]

...

[Canoerebel]

5/3/45

Erik sent an email this morning that caused me to wonder if he was drinking or had forgotten his native language. It made absolutely no sense. Trying to make sense out of it, I sent him my interpretation, which he found nonsensical.

The problem turned out to be that he'd sent a previous email with the turn files; none of that arrived, rendering his subsequent message nonsensical. After a long time, we finally figured out what had happened and got back on course.

TNNBT: The opening Allied landing goes without a hitch. Paratroops land via APD at Kume Jima, just west of Okinawa. I'll try to keep Erik from reinforcing by air. If he manages to, a 100%-prepped Marine division will come ashore the day after tomorrow.

Death Star & The Herd moved only three hexes today, but that allowed most of the lagging TFs (and nearly all of the important ones) to catch up. What continued to lag got chewed up, mainly by enemy carrier air strikes. I lost 30+ LCI gunships and a few supply xAKs. These will have no bearing on the show, unless they are the start of a trend. But now DS & The Herd are nearly united and security (with a few exceptions for another day or two) will be tighter.

Allied strike aircraft and subs downed a few enemy vessels. I lost a sub. Erik lost a lot of patrol aircraft.

Tomorrow opens with another FT landing, this one at Iriomote. Small Allied combat TFs will patrol forward in hopes of dealing with riff-raff. In about two days, the armada will be finished in the Iriomote/Kume theater and will move on to the primary targets.

Recon continues to look good. I think Erik may even be withdrawing from Hainan Island, which was a possible diversionary target if I found things too tough elsewhere. NOw, there's a possible diversionary target on Formosa. A base is empty. I could take it via fast transport and then land the full army there. I bet 14 or 15 divisions would be sufficient to take the island. I'm weighing that but presently inclined to proceed to the primary targets.

[Canoerebel]

5/3/45

SEAC: Allied invasion of Georgetown goes smoothly. I think the base will fall tomorrow.

While TNNBT is the focal point, this campaign is critical for several reasons: (1) Singapore is a high-value base critical to victory conditions; (2) take Singapore and RN Death Star and a massive army can link up with Death Star or operate separately against places like Java or Sumatra.

For the next month or so, a large part of the Allied army in SEAC will focus on Singers. A smaller set will try to push into Indochina and eventually towards China. China will become the focal point of the war, with the United Kingdom, Indian, American, Chinese and (eventually) Russian armies concentrating there. Chungking and Shanghai are two primary targets (and the Russians will likely key on Korea).

The Allies may invade Luzon too, because Manila is a high-value target. But that's a ways off yet.

First, though, the Allied armada will have to withstand powerful attacks. I think Erik will throw everything at it, possibly beginning as early as tomorrow.

[Canoerebel]

5/4/45

TNNBT: Heavy enemy combat vessels are closing from both sides, but DS & The Herd have consolidated (without any ships losses today). I know Erik will pounce with everything sooner or later; better that he do so with all the chickens back under the wing.

Kume Jima switched sides twice today - auto-flip to Allies and then enemy paratroops recovered it. Allies will land a division and a big Kiwi base force tomorrow. Erik may intervene. Could be big fight or not.

Lots of small Allied combat TFs will patrol around DS and around Kume, hoping to blunt enemy charges. Allied subs will also move into the East China Sea in numbers tomorrow.

SigInt and recon suggest that Erik perceives the main threat may be to Formosa. He is, however, continuing to pull troops out of Japan to reinforce Korea and China.

[Canoerebel]

5/4/45

SEAC: Allies come within a whisker of taking Georgetown. 6:1 attack drops forts form 6 to 0. Unless Erik manages to reinforce strongly tomorrow, the base is likely to fall. If he does reinforce with, say, a mixed brigade, all bets are off. My guys are fail disrupted and disabled now. I'd have to bombard and otherwise find news ways to prevail.

It continues to look like Erik is pulling out of Thailand and heading to China. It's possible he might divert troops to Singers via ship transport. I'll watch for that. But right now, his Malaya defenses are dived into pockets all over the place.

If (a big if) the Allies can prevail in TNNBT, overcoming enemy attacks and achieving the targeted objectives, then there's a chance Erik won't strongly defend Malaya. The Allied army here is massive, and he needs to get as many reinforcements to China as possible.

[adarbrauner]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I can bombard, and will if necessary. But it's a tricky thing. The bombardment TF (at this time) has no base to retire to, so would either have to remain on station or pull back to some AI-determined hex. In either case, CAP would be an issue.

I'm not too worried about massed raids from Formosa and the Ryukus. DS should, I think, be able to handle things on that scale. It's when DS is near interlocking level 9 airfields that I get the willies.

I agree re: the Georgetown op.

My Ironman game is in August '45. During the period you are in my bombardments were set for Remain on Station with the DS one or at most two hexes away providing CAP. After the bombardment the TF returns to the DS hex to re-arm from the AE Replenishment TF sitting with the DS.

Do they return " by themselves" or is it you setting the movement the phase following the bombardment?

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: adarbrauner

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I can bombard, and will if necessary. But it's a tricky thing. The bombardment TF (at this time) has no base to retire to, so would either have to remain on station or pull back to some AI-determined hex. In either case, CAP would be an issue.

I'm not too worried about massed raids from Formosa and the Ryukus. DS should, I think, be able to handle things on that scale. It's when DS is near interlocking level 9 airfields that I get the willies.

I agree re: the Georgetown op.

My Ironman game is in August '45. During the period you are in my bombardments were set for Remain on Station with the DS one or at most two hexes away providing CAP. After the bombardment the TF returns to the DS hex to re-arm from the AE Replenishment TF sitting with the DS.

Do they return " by themselves" or is it you setting the movement the phase following the bombardment?

They can't return to the DS hex "by themselves" because the DS hex isn't a "home port" they are returning to.

To make this work you have to set them to Remain on Station and the NEXT turn you give them orders to return to the DS hex where the AE replenishment TF is waiting to rearm them.

All movement and combat action takes place under the umbrella of DS CAP.

[Canoerebel]

5/5/45

TNNBT: A good and fairly quiet day with the focus on a successful landing in force at Kume Jima. Tomorrow, if things go right, DS and The Herd will move out due north, making for the primary target(s).

The number of enemy aircraft is awesome - 5,000+ just at the bases under recon. Erik may have 6,000 or 7,000 available in total. When the enemy attack comes it will be awesome.

[Canoerebel]

5/5/45

SEAC: The Allies take Georgetown, opening up the SEAC campaign even as a vast enemy army appears to be withdrawing from Thailand towards Indochina and thence China.

[BBfanboy]

Interesting déja vu in that obvert has recently been reconquering Indochina and Malaya in another of his campaigns. He will be well aware of all the vulnerabilities and good strongpoints.
However, it is late in the game and I think he knows he needs to keep you out of easy strat bombing range of the home islands, so he will let Indochina and Malaya go but leave enough resistance to be a speed bump for you. Everything not already trapped will make for China. (my guess, I have not peeked at his AAR discussions).

[Canoerebel]

Good points.

The handling of this campaign has been complex for both of us, with a lot of strategy involved. Erik held SEAC in great strength very late, but I think the Allied strategy actually proved more advantageous for two reasons.

First, Erik probably waited until too late to withdraw. With the sudden and imminent threat to China, he's scrambling now. His army will escape envelopment easily and arrive in time to fight well in China, but it wasn't there to defend and dig in. A lot of fighting will be fluid and in the open, which favors the Allies. And his withdrawal has been ragged enough that he has issues with Malaya. The sooner I can wrap up Singers, the sooner the Allied armies and navies can consolidate in China/Korea for the endgame.

Secondly, I got what I wanted without having to fight tough land campaigns that would've favored the well-dug-in defenders in good defensive ground. I didn't want to lose a lot of men and felt like it ultimately wouldn't be necessary to do so - that a collapse would come soon enough under favorable conditions. I think that's what's happened.

[BBfanboy]

Congrats on your progress so far on TNNBT. You built a lot of valuable indecision (for Eric) into the projection of the targets. Excellent maskirovka!
Looking forward to how it plays out, since the air force you are facing is clearly stronger in quality than any other I have seen at end game. Luck!

[Canoerebel]

Thanks. I agree - I'll need some luck.

D-Day should be no more than four days off, perhaps three. It's almost a certainty that Erik will pull the trigger during that interval.

[Canoerebel]

I feel like I'm putting my head in a noose.

I spent a lot of time overnight and this morning thinking about where Death Star & The Herd are headed. The prospect of being surrounded by level 9 and level 7 airfields populated by many as 5,000 to 7,000 aircraft with excellent pilots is a daunting one.

The Allies might prevail. Weather may mess up Erik's attacks, spreading them out; or the fine Allied navy fighters plus flak may perform superbly. But their is a realistic chance that DS could get chewed up, leaving this massive armada inside a noose with no clear way out. The repercussions from that are daunting, as the Allied positions (NoPac, China coast, Malaya) would be fragmented and unable to support one another in the short- or medium terms.

If Erik pounces this next turn, the matter may have been decided. I don't think he will, however, giving me a chance to adjust. I'll take a careful look at his bases and air force dispositions.

There is a possibility I'm considering - another drastic change of course to the south. This would spoil his plans to use Fusan's and Nagasaki's massive airfields, and I don't think he's quite as prepared to use Takao's (I'm willing to take on one level 9 in proximity anyway). This plan would mean a quick reinforcing landing at Iriomote (6th Marine Div. is 100% prepped), giving me a second strong lodgment up here (and giving Erik another Allied base to worry over). Then DS & The Herd would proceed to lightly held Hainan Island. An amphib force HQ is prepped for Samah, which has a small garrison. Shortly thereafter, the armada would proceed to near Luzon to establish a strong base on one of the offshore islands (troops fully prepped).

The advantages to this plan are: (1) expedites move on high-value Manila; (2) should allow joint ops against Singapore; (3) would allow union of Death Star and RN Death Star; (4) Allies would land in northern Indochina or Kwangchoan/Pakhoi, isolateing enemy troops in Indochina/Thailand from China; (5) Allied army advancing into Thailand (10,000 AV) would move north, linking up with Death Star & The Herd army, the combination then moving into China in strength at about the time Russia activates.

There are the usual risks with this plan, but the noose aspect is lowered considerably, and landing in strength at Hainan/Kwangchoan/Pakhoi is nearly as advantageous from a ground-war perspective as the original plan, with considerably less risk.

Decision not made yet, and will be influenced heavily by what happens and what I see next turn. But I like that plan. So, the original tertiary objectives (Hainan and Philippines) may become the primary.

[Bearcat2]

Most of the time, you channel your inner George Thomas; but you do have your George Brinton McClellan moments

[Canoerebel]

[:)]

Civil War analogies are a lot of fun (at least for all of us Civil War buffs).

At the moment, I feel like Longstreet hearing from Lee, "Dude, go take that ridge. It'll be easy. Pickett's Division will be enough, but I'll even give you parts of two others. See ya later."

[BBfanboy]

There are pluses and minuses to all decisions. If your original primary target is the Shanghai area (Hangchow, Ningpo, etc.) the new plan may give him more time to reinforce those places. Of course, he will also wonder where the heck your invasions are really headed for quite a while and not reinforce around Shanghai at all! So much fog!

Re: the airfields - they may not have penalties for the number of air units stacked, but they still need enough air support to keep the aircraft flying. He can move air support around Honshu and Kyushu quickly, but not so much for China or Taiwan.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[:)]

Civil War analogies are a lot of fun (at least for all of us Civil War buffs).

At the moment, I feel like Longstreet hearing from Lee, "Dude, go take that ridge. It'll be easy. Pickett's Division will be enough, but I'll even give you parts of two others. See ya later."

I'm sure that's a direct quote. [:D]

[MakeeLearn]

It's against military protocol to use the term "The Herd" without a tie to "Third", as in "The Third Herd"

1st platoon(or anything) cannot call itself "The Herd"
Nor 2nd, 4th, 5th, etc.....

Only 3rd platoon(or anything) is "The Third Herd" or "The Herd".
So.. The 3rd "Battlegroup" can be called "The Third Herd", or "The Herd"

To be in 3rd squad(or anything) of 3rd platoon(or anything) is the ultimate "HERD".

"Iam in the 3rd @@@@ of the the 3rd %%%%." HERD NIRVANA




Just a bit of etiquette[;)]

[Canoerebel]

[X(]