Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

Erik just sent the Combat Report (he won't send the turn until later today, perhaps much later I think).

He launched his opening salvos today - large air attacks against DS & The Herd. The results was carnage to the Japanese air forces. I think he lost 500-600 aircraft, maybe more. In return, he scored one TT hit on a CVE (his air force also picked off some naked transports near Kume - the TF that somehow detached yesterday and went off on a lark). Allied losses were modest - possibly 10% of the Japanese totals.

I was surprised that he didn't commit his combat ships and riff-raff in hopes of confusing things and perhaps scattering Allied TFs.

These opening results are encouraging but not decisive. The points will help, the attrition to his air force is a nice down payment, but this was only the tip of the iceberg.

What happens next depends on how far DS & The Herd went. If they went five or six hexes, they're committed now and I may proceed.

If they didn't get that far, there's an option that I like that I'll consider. I think he'll load up for an alpha strike next turn on the assumption that the armada is inbound to China. If he's coming, I'd rather not give him a set-piece battle that he expects. So the armada might change course drastically, close on Formosa, and cover a landing of Iriomote (which has an airfield that would be useful). There's a chance this will allow DS to take on a signficantly reduced portion of an alpha strike, possibly eliminating Nagasaki from the mix and almost certainly Fusan. Then, if things go badly, the armada is in a position to exit the noose for the mission described above. On the other hand, if DS handles a massive inbound strike well, Erik's losses may be sufficient that I can then proceed more boldly.

Those options will be in mind when the time comes to review the map, consider options, and make decisions for the next turn.

[jwolf]

DS and The Herd will move out due north, making for the primary target(s).

From this quote and the map, I inferred that the target was Ningpo, deja vu from the game with John III. But now it sounds like you are considering editing the primary target on the fly, which I understand your thinking (maybe?) but I fear for chaos. Maybe the one turn with poor results for the Japanese strike planes will give you a bit of breathing room.

PS -- I loved the "direct quote" from Gettysburg! [:D]

[HansBolter]

Very interesting to see where you are headed.

My game is in August '45 now and Hangchow and Ningpo are my main B29 and B24 bases.
I haven't yet completed the siege of Shanghai.

The bases in China were taken by land with most of China having been liberated.

Okinawa is in hand with Marine raiders and paras already scooping up the small islands surrounding Kyushu.

Units are prepped for every base in Kyushu and I expect to land in late October.

I'm hoping I can get landings set up for Honshu by January, but expect it may not happen till February.

I'm planning to play right up until the scenario ends on the last day of March.

The China coast bases have a nice reach into the HI.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Very interesting to see where you are headed.

My game is in August '45 now and Hangchow and Ningpo are my main B29 and B24 bases.
I haven't yet completed the siege of Shanghai.

The bases in China were taken by land with most of China having been liberated.

Okinawa is in hand with Marine raiders and paras already scooping up the small islands surrounding Kyushu.

Units are prepped for every base in Kyushu and I expect to land in late October.

I'm hoping I can get landings set up for Honshu by January, but expect it may not happen till February.

I'm planning to play right up until the scenario ends on the last day of March.

The China coast bases have a nice reach into the HI.

Watch out for the Geisha Guards Division, Hans!

[Canoerebel]

Erik hasn't sent the turn, so I haven't started gathering the info that will help me make a final decision on whither the armada goeth.

There may be alot of interest among readers to see what happens when a Death Star faces Erik's defenses. Should I elect to back off, don't think too hardly of me. Imagine how you'd feel committing ships in a box canyon surrounded by 5,000 to 7,000 excellent aircraft flow by elite pilots. It's a sobering thought.

[jwolf]

Just shooting from the hip here: but what if you persist into the "box canyon" and Erik launches an all out air attack which crushes his elite fighters, with or without significant damage to your invasion fleet. You would then have the green light for some serious strat bombing, far beyond the level at which you have been doing that.

I suppose all I really mean here is that this is a very high stakes encounter for both sides, and not just with regard to the immediate objective of TNNBT.

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Just shooting from the hip here: but what if you persist into the "box canyon" and Erik launches an all out air attack which crushes his elite fighters, with or without significant damage to your invasion fleet. You would then have the green light for some serious strat bombing, far beyond the level at which you have been doing that.

I suppose all I really mean here is that this is a very high stakes encounter for both sides, and not just with regard to the immediate objective of TNNBT.

True, but it is like being bottom of the ninth in a tie game, facing a pitcher with a penchant for fitting batters in the nether regions while opening your stance to swing for the fences. Yeah, you might just hit that fast ball over the fence. But in the back of your mind your saying to yourself "Oh Please, oh please, oh please, oh please..."

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, it's like John Kruk facing Randy Johnson in that All-Star game: [X(]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYXTV51GdUs

[Lecivius]

<Maxwell Smart>
"Missed it by THAT much!"

[RangerJoe]

I remember a game where the Dodgers were in the bottom of the 9th inning down by 9 runs. They won - without going into extra innings! [X(]

Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volleyed and thundered;
Stormed at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of hell
Rode the six hundred

https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/ ... ht-brigade

But I like to point out that they did take the guns. But they forgot to bring the hammers and nails so they could not render them useless before they returned to their own lines. However, they attacked the wrong target.

[Canoerebel]

"..jaws of Death..."

Erik couldn't complete the turn. Perhaps he had a headache. Perhaps his other games took up most of his time. More likely (or I have to assume so) he's spent hours evaluating options, making plans, and beginning to fine-tune orders for his ships and aircraft. His aircraft are my biggest concern, but what gives me the willies is the thought of a thousand ships mixing in with mine, causing havoc, scattering them, and breaking up DS's CAP.

I think Erik will make his plans on the assumptions that the Allies are on the final approach now to China and that I'll be emboldened by today's air battles. So I'll cross him up by turning around to invade Iriomote and to take station hard by Formosa. I hope he'll have loaded up all his big airfields, so that I'll have to face a thousand or more from Formosa and coastal China, while avoiding or reducing the influence of Kyushua and southern Korea. Depending on what happens over the next day or two, I can then proceed to China or with my tertiary plan, which is a good one too.

But I won't make final decisions until I can look at the map - to see where my guys are, where the bulk of his air strikes came from, whether he loaded up Formosa, how close Iriomote is to my transports (6th Marine Div. is 100% prepped), etc.

[T Rav]

Wheels within wheels. I wouldn't want to plan a game against either one of you. It would be over before I knew what hit me...

T Rav

[ChuckBerger]

Enjoying this immensely. You two will have fun reading each others' AARs when this is all done.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: T Rav

Wheels within wheels. I wouldn't want to plan a game against either one of you. It would be over before I knew what hit me...

T Rav

"...I looked, and I saw a windstorm coming out of the north—an immense cloud with flashing lightning and surrounded by brilliant light. The center of the fire looked like glowing metal, and in the fire was what looked like four living creatures..."
- Ezekiel 1

[CaptBeefheart]

I haven't had this much fun since GreyJoy invaded Hokkaido.

Cheers,
CB

[Barb]

You are going straight for the heart of the beast - but given the condition his forces are in (air + naval) this may be too bold to attempt. Anyway while China could be tempting target it will give you space to expand till he retreats from Indochina, but then you will be "boxed in" and forced to keep your ground troops committed till Soviets/Commonwealth arrive.

I believe you should keep to the Island hopping (The herd gives you the mobility after all) - get Formosa, some of the Ryukus for forward bases, maybe even Luzon. You will keep the mobility, you will get the bases, less ground commitment, cut off his LOC to the south bar ground via china or sea via Mariana-Home Islands. Once established you will have opportunity to attack north toward Japan or speed up reconquest of the south (worth lot of points too).

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: T Rav

Wheels within wheels. I wouldn't want to plan a game against either one of you. It would be over before I knew what hit me...

T Rav

"...I looked, and I saw a windstorm coming out of the north—an immense cloud with flashing lightning and surrounded by brilliant light. The center of the fire looked like glowing metal, and in the fire was what looked like four living creatures..."
- Ezekiel 1

Quo Vadis?

[Canoerebel]

Yah, quo vadis!

Erik sent a courtesy note last night that he wouldn't be able to finish the turn and send it last night, but that he'd send it this morning, his time. It's now mid afternoon his time; no turn. It could be he's at the movies, playing soccer, or taking his wife to lunch. But I'm assuming he's pouring over the map and making many clicks.

[pontiouspilot]

Beware the slow train a comin!! I'm as anxious waiting as you

[Canoerebel]

5/6/45

TNNBT: Just received and started running the turn. This is early in the a.m. search phase, with some thoughts and locations noted.