The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

The fighter groups he is flying are indeed slightly under their max of 25 airframes. You'll get 14 sweeping, then 3 later. I attribute this to empty pools, but of course it could be flying directly after upgrades or previous battles and not having had enough time pass to be able to refill the group.

I think you are off in your interpretation. Sweeps almost never go in coordinated so you are seeing each squadrons allotment of percentage for that sweep.
A 25 plane squadron set to 70% sweep/30% rest will not send more than 16-17 airframes on any given sortie with that degraded by pilot fatigue/airframe fatigue and morale.

I would guess the squadron that only sent 3 planes may have only had 5 operational with the others in various states of maintenance, not necessarily due to losses unreplacable due to pool limits.

Well, could be but it is virtually every sweep that has a small 2-3 plane group that comes in late. I can look at the air group numbers in the replay to confirm.

I can't imagine why he'd use rest while sweeping. Smaller groups suffer more in sweeps so he'd be better off waiting and using a full group later if possible. So I assume it's not possible.

For the P-47N he only gets 100/month and he's been losing them hand over fist lately. There are a few groups that arrive full during the spring, but I think it's only three for 75 planes, so not enough to really give too big a bump.

[obvert]

Still getting some good transport hauls through. Here is a look at the approach.

[obvert]

Another major troop dump in the HI. Not great divisions, but paired with a lot of the independent 15cm arty units arriving late as well as big forts, these will be a welcome addition. They will also empty my vehicles pool I'm sure with all of the motorised support needed.

[obvert]

The situation. The Allies are sending armor forward many hexes ahead of AA or ID units. I'll aim to bomb and then try to knock them back.

[modrow]

ORIGINAL: obvert
The Allies try more sweeps in the North. This time high. Hellcats are decimated, but what is surprising me (and I'm sure Dan) is that the P-51D and P-47N continue to struggle as well.

My guess would be pilot quality (or rather lack thereof), assisted of course by your masterful layering technique, is the issue here.

As usual, great job !

Hartwig

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: modrow

ORIGINAL: obvert
The Allies try more sweeps in the North. This time high. Hellcats are decimated, but what is surprising me (and I'm sure Dan) is that the P-51D and P-47N continue to struggle as well.

My guess would be pilot quality (or rather lack thereof), assisted of course by your masterful layering technique, is the issue here.

As usual, great job !

Hartwig

I am wondering the same, as I can't figure out anything else that could cause such consistently bad results for him. Especially when they're not going against my absolute top pilots.

It looks like he may be trying to figure out a better sweeping system judging by the many different sweep altitude combinations I've seen recently. I know which work best against me, but I'm not going to share that just yet! [:D]

[Bearcat2]

Based on his previous games, he will fly units with fatigue levels higher than I would use.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Bearcat2

Based on his previous games, he will fly units with fatigue levels higher than I would use.

Right. That could do it too.

He has also flown groups that are very under-filled. So some sweeps will come with 5-8 fighters of a type. In extreme situations, flooding a base and supporting with numbers, I could see that, but not if it's really not necessary. If they hit a big CAP the defence swarms.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]May 22, 1945[/font]

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Well, the block at Udon Thani couldn't hold long. the Allied air power made sure, and in spite of a valiant effort by IJAAF bombers, the troops were pushed back. Now the flood will commence.

All other major IJA units are retreating into China in order. The last IDs to walk to Vinh are just getting into strat mode now. They'll be at Lang Son in four days. I'll probably sacrifice a few more units to hold the hordes back in a few locations, but it's now only weeks, not months, until the Allies are moving over the Southern border into China. i've prepared for this all campaign. Nanning is forts 6, and will be a place for a small stand. I've also got units in the mountains dug in with forts 5-6 in some places that are likely paths for movement offload. It's a gamble to keep very good IDs out there, but the Chinese are beginning to move forward again, and if they shock over a river into x3 terrain against a unit with 6 forts, that will be good for me. [;)]

Allied tanks are moving forward into the Chinese plains, and IJAAF air strikes will commence to try and weaken them and slow the push. I want hi to have to be onerous, bring the AA and arty and IDs along overland, and not let him capture bases and rail forward as much as possible.

Got another sub today. Marauding DDs approach the Bonins where Lilys took a shot at them. No hits surprisingly, as these are very experienced pilots.
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR May 22, 1945
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TF 174 encounters mine field at Shanghai (92,55) - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

20 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
AM Strength, Shell hits 4, on fire
AM Spectacle, Shell hits 3
AM Recruit, Shell hits 5, heavy fires

AM Strength firing at Chugoku JNAF Base Force
Chugoku JNAF Base Force firing at AM Strength
AM Recruit firing at Chugoku JNAF Base Force
30 mines cleared

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Sub attack near Tambelan Islands at 53,90

Japanese Ships
xAK Hukusei Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
E No.9

Allied Ships
SS Sleuth, hits 40, heavy damage

SS Sleuth launches 6 torpedoes at xAK Hukusei Maru
Sleuth bottoming out ....
Underwater explosion, debris and oil appear on surface!
Escort abandons search for sub

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Sub attack near Davao at 81,93

Japanese Ships
PB Keiko Maru, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
PB Tokotsu Maru

Allied Ships
SS Harder

SS Harder launches 6 torpedoes at PB Keiko Maru

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Sub attack near Davao at 81,93

Japanese Ships
PB Keiko Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
PB Tokotsu Maru

Allied Ships
SS Harder

SS Harder launches 6 torpedoes at PB Keiko Maru
Harder diving deep ....

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Morning Air attack on Udon Thani , at 61,59

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K2-J George x 6
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 2
Ki-83 x 8
Ki-102b Randy x 7

Allied aircraft
P-51D Mustang x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-83: 1 destroyed
Ki-102b Randy: 1 destroyed

No Allied losses

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Morning Air attack on 3rd Cavalry Regiment, at 61,59 (Udon Thani)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K2-J George x 4
Ki-49-IIb Helen x 47
Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy x 4
Ki-83 x 6
Ki-102b Randy x 6

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
8 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 24 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 32 (3 destroyed, 29 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
21 x Ki-49-IIb Helen bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on 50th Tank Brigade, at 60,61 , near Nakhon Ratchasima

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B7A2 Grace x 44

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
43 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 14 (3 destroyed, 11 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
18 x B7A2 Grace releasing from 1000'
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on Provisionl Tank Brigade, at 61,59 (Udon Thani)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 9 NM, estimated altitude 5,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K2-J George x 4
Ki-49-IIb Helen x 15
Ki-83 x 3

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
94 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
15 x Ki-49-IIb Helen bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on Udon Thani , at 61,59

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 23 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K2-J George x 4
Ki-83 x 5
Ki-102b Randy x 6

Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 15
P-38L Lightning x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-83: 2 destroyed
Ki-102b Randy: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-38L Lightning: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
15 x Spitfire VIII sweeping at 10000 feet *
12 x P-38L Lightning sweeping at 10000 feet

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Morning Air attack on 55th Ind.Mixed Brigade, at 61,59 (Udon Thani)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 38 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-25D Mitchell x 9
Blenheim VD x 4
Liberator B.VI x 8
Wellington B.X x 11
B-24J Liberator x 6
B-25J11 Mitchell x 8

Allied aircraft losses
B-25D Mitchell: 6 damaged
Liberator B.VI: 1 damaged
Wellington B.X: 3 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 5 damaged
B-25J11 Mitchell: 2 damaged
B-25J11 Mitchell: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese ground losses:
252 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x Liberator B.VI bombing from 9000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on 50th Field AA Battalion, at 61,59 (Udon Thani)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
Thunderbolt I x 14
Hudson I x 3
B-24J Liberator x 3
B-25J11 Mitchell x 36

Allied aircraft losses
Hudson I: 1 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 2 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
70 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
18 x B-25J11 Mitchell bombing from 9000 feet *
Ground Attack: 3 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on 31st Special Base Force, at 92,48 , near Haichow

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 5 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 11

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 4 damaged
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese ground losses:
62 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
11 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 13000 feet *
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Chichi-jima at 116,81

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 67 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 19 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-48-IIc Lily x 19

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-48-IIc Lily: 4 destroyed, 7 damaged
Ki-48-IIc Lily: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
DD Purdy
DD Compton
DD Gainard

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x Ki-48-IIc Lily releasing from 1000'
Naval Attack: 2 x 100 kg SAP Bomb
8 x Ki-48-IIc Lily releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 2 x 100 kg SAP Bomb
2 x Ki-48-IIc Lily releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 2 x 100 kg SAP Bomb

Banzai! - Kakimoto I. in a Ki-48-IIc Lily is willing to die for the Emperor
Banzai! - Chikami H. in a Ki-48-IIc Lily is willing to die for the Emperor

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Afternoon Air attack on 51st Field AA Battalion, at 61,59 (Udon Thani)

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 1
Ki-83 x 7
Ki-102b Randy x 4

Allied aircraft
Thunderbolt I x 14
B-25C Mitchell x 3
B-24J Liberator x 3
B-25D1 Mitchell x 2
B-25J1 Mitchell x 3
B-25J11 Mitchell x 21

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 1 destroyed
Ki-102b Randy: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-25C Mitchell: 2 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 damaged
B-25J11 Mitchell: 1 destroyed, 4 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
110 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Guns lost 5 (1 destroyed, 4 disabled)

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Ground combat at Nanking (91,52)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 14963 troops, 257 guns, 246 vehicles, Assault Value = 1726

Defending force 895 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1

Allied adjusted assault: 1416

Japanese adjusted defense: 5

Allied assault odds: 283 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), fatigue(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
1074 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 81 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Units destroyed 1

Assaulting units:
194th Tank Battalion
3rd Marine Division
33rd Infantry Division
706th Tank Battalion
775th Tank Battalion
4th Marine Division
3rd Motor Brigade
Port Moresby Brigade
225th Field Artillery Battalion
X US Corps
8th USMC Field Artillery Battalion

Defending units:
RGC Army

Aircraft Attacking:
10 x B-25J11 Mitchell bombing from 9000 feet *
Ground Attack: 3 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Ground combat at Udon Thani (61,59)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 2761 troops, 0 guns, 203 vehicles, Assault Value = 414

Defending force 8544 troops, 153 guns, 22 vehicles, Assault Value = 90

Allied adjusted assault: 50

Japanese adjusted defense: 11

Allied assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 2)

Allied forces CAPTURE Udon Thani !!!

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-102b Randy: 3 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 4 destroyed

Combat modifiers
Defender: disruption(-), preparation(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
1161 casualties reported
Squads: 83 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 171 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 64 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 58 (58 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 11 (11 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 12

Allied ground losses:
29 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
254th Armoured Brigade
Provisionl Tank Brigade
754th Tank Battalion
3rd Cavalry Regiment

Defending units:
28th Ind.Mixed Brigade
55th Ind.Mixed Brigade
2nd Sasebo SNLF Coy
43rd Const Co
84th JAAF AF Bn
60th Field AA Battalion
51st Field AA Battalion
53rd Const Co
8th Field AF Construction Battalion
50th Field AA Battalion
54th Field AA Battalion
4th RF Gun Bn /1
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I mangled to sneak in a fast transport with the unflyable elements of a division that moved to Shanghai. It'll probably be sunk, but as yet is undetected. In case small strike arrive it is LR CAPed from Taihoku.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]May 23, 1945[/font]

---

The 23rd sees a lot of minor actions that have longer term implications for he game. The Allies continue to bomb troops around Udon Thani, and the IJA forces still make good progress toward Vientianne and it's x3 terrain with 6 forts. I'd love to get in there and see if I can mess up a tank unit or two trying to cross.

Up in NE China the Allies keep sending in small DMS to work on the Shanghai mines. They take some shots but do clear some.

The IJAAF takes some shots at advanced tank units the Allies sent forward. Can't get too many good hits on them. There is no flak present and these units are using the highly experienced pilots from early war. All 70-80exp and 75-80 skill in land bombing. A bit frustrating. I'll add even more tomorrow.

As part of this effort I tried a Randy Ki-102a sweep. This plane can go to 44k, so I let it run, but at max distance. The much larger group suffered against only 10 Hellcats flying at 10k. Hmmmm. I'll move it in closer to see if that helps.
[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR May 23, 1945
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TF 808 encounters mine field at Shanghai (92,55) - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

26 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
DMS Gherardi
DMS Boggs, Shell hits 2
DD Roebuck, Mine hits 1

DMS Gherardi firing at Shanghai Special Base Force
Shanghai Special Base Force firing at DMS Gherardi
Chugoku JNAF Base Force firing at DMS Boggs
DMS Boggs firing at Chugoku JNAF Base Force
25 mines cleared

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Night Naval bombardment of Shanghai at 92,55

Japanese Ships
ACM Shinko Maru #1, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
CL Ceylon
DD Zellars
DMS Gherardi
DMS Boggs

Japanese ground losses:
25 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Airbase hits 9
Airbase supply hits 3
Runway hits 27
Port hits 1

CL Ceylon firing at Shanghai
DD Zellars firing at 38th Division

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Morning Air attack on 711th Tank Battalion, at 92,49 , near Haichow

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 48 NM, estimated altitude 46,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-102a Randy x 39

Allied aircraft
F6F-5 Hellcat x 3

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-102a Randy: 2 destroyed

No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
27 x Ki-102a Randy sweeping at 44000 feet *

CAP engaged:
VC(F)-27 with F6F-5 Hellcat (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(6 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 3 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 2 minutes

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Morning Air attack on 766th Tank Battalion, at 89,50 (Hwainan)

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 12 NM, estimated altitude 4,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B6N2a Jill x 35
N1K2-J George x 18

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 8 (1 destroyed, 7 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
35 x B6N2a Jill bombing from 2000 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on 3rd NZ Armoured Sqn , at 89,50 (Hwainan)

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 13 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-49-IIb Helen x 22
Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy x 22

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 22 (3 destroyed, 19 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
22 x Ki-49-IIb Helen bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on 55th Ind.Mixed Brigade, at 62,58 , near Udon Thani

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 29 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-25D Mitchell x 6
Blenheim VD x 7
Hudson I x 3
A-20G Havoc x 3
B-24J Liberator x 6
B-25D1 Mitchell x 2
B-25H Mitchell x 2
B-25J1 Mitchell x 12
B-25J11 Mitchell x 35
P-38L Lightning x 17

Allied aircraft losses
B-25D Mitchell: 3 damaged
B-25D Mitchell: 1 destroyed by flak
Blenheim VD: 3 damaged
Hudson I: 1 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 2 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 1 damaged
B-25J1 Mitchell: 3 damaged
B-25J11 Mitchell: 4 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
45 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-25D Mitchell bombing from 9000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on 31st Special Base Force, at 92,48 , near Haichow

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 22 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 7

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese ground losses:
35 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 13000 feet *
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Ground combat at 90,52 (near Nanking)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 6144 troops, 17 guns, 563 vehicles, Assault Value = 658

Defending force 2537 troops, 14 guns, 3 vehicles, Assault Value = 54

Allied adjusted assault: 386

Japanese adjusted defense: 1

Allied assault odds: 386 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(+), disruption(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
2866 casualties reported
Squads: 157 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 164 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 11 (11 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 3 (3 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Assaulting units:
194th Tank Battalion
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
775th Tank Battalion
706th Tank Battalion
44th Tank Battalion
3rd Motor Brigade

Defending units:
1st RGC Capital Division

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[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]May 24, 1945[/font]

---

On the 24th the bombing against a few forward tank units goes much better. I'm still concerned about the Peggy (T) strikes which aren't even as effective as the Jills I've got on in spite of better pilots and bomb loads. Hmmmmmmm.

The Allies now have 2E in China and go for Shanghai. Georges on LR CAP duty bleed over and get a handful of the P-51D escorts. Very nice. I'll wait and see how persistent these strikes are before assigning more to hit them.

In the South the Allies move forward toward Saigon. I've decided to give up the base to save the units, even though it would be good territory to fight in. It's not good enough. I'll bring the division there to Shanghai and all but a few small units will evacuate along the rails. I'lll keep just enough to avoid losing bases to Para assault and force the Allies to walk as far as possible. The loss of Shanghai will mean the Allies will take a lead for the first time in VPs starting in early June.
[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR May 24, 1945
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Night Naval bombardment of Shanghai at 92,55

Japanese Ships
ACM Shinko Maru #1, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
CL Ceylon

Japanese ground losses:
5 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Resources hits 1
Manpower hits 1
Fires 116
Airbase hits 18
Runway hits 19
Port hits 5

CL Ceylon firing at Shanghai

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Sub attack near Puerto Princesa at 70,77

Japanese Ships
AK Nankai Maru, Torpedo hits 2, heavy damage
xAP Kamo Maru
E Nasami

Allied Ships
SS Crevalle

SS Crevalle launches 6 torpedoes at AK Nankai Maru

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Morning Air attack on 767th Tank Battalion, at 91,48 , near Suchow

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 37 NM, estimated altitude 4,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B6N2a Jill x 31

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 5 (1 destroyed, 4 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
31 x B6N2a Jill bombing from 2000 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on 762nd Tank Battalion, at 89,50 (Hwainan)

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 32 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B6N2a Jill x 35
N1K2-J George x 11
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 35

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 23 (2 destroyed, 21 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
35 x B6N2a Jill bombing from 2000 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 6th USMC Tank Battalion ...

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Morning Air attack on 193rd Tank Battalion, at 59,68 (Kompong Chhnang)

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 14 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B7A2 Grace x 44

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 16 (2 destroyed, 14 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
19 x B7A2 Grace releasing from 1000'
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on Hwainan , at 89,50

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 23 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K2-J George x 11
N1K5-J George x 31
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 11
Ki-49-IIb Helen x 23
Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy x 5
Ki-100-II Tony x 7

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 22 (1 destroyed, 21 disabled)

Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 3

Aircraft Attacking:
19 x Ki-49-IIb Helen bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on 767th Tank Battalion, at 91,48 , near Suchow

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-49-IIa Helen x 40
Ki-49-IIb Helen x 19
Ki-83 x 14

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-49-IIa Helen: 1 damaged

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 36 (2 destroyed, 34 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
19 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 3000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on 767th Tank Battalion, at 91,48 , near Suchow

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 12 NM, estimated altitude 3,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy x 20
Ki-83 x 14

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
20 x Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy bombing from 3000 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on 766th Tank Battalion, at 89,50 (Hwainan)

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 41 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K2-J George x 11
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 11
Ki-49-IIb Helen x 6
Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy x 32
Ki-100-II Tony x 15

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 10 (1 destroyed, 9 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
19 x Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Shanghai , at 92,55

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 47 NM, estimated altitude 26,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K5-J George x 9

Allied aircraft
P-38L Lightning x 4
P-51D Mustang x 16
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 28
PBJ-1J Mitchell x 13

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
P-51D Mustang: 3 destroyed
PBJ-1D Mitchell: 4 damaged

Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 4

Aircraft Attacking:
14 x PBJ-1D Mitchell bombing from 22000 feet
Airfield Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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[obvert]

Here is the situation in the North. The hexes with targets are the forward tank units. I'll keep hitting them until he figures out how to better LR CAP them or gets bases closer to protect them. I'd like to keep the rail as long as possible and I'm sure he'd like to sever it as quickly as he can.

[obvert]

Here is the South. The Allies march forward, and should be sending the big stack to Udon Thani soon. There is about 50k there now, and forces are marching toward Viennetiane and down toward Vinh. All big units will be out by tomorrow toward China and the smaller following on within days. Then a skeleton crew will hold the Indochinese rail line and zip out if they can in succession as the Allies approach.

I'm beginning to think of where to hold in China. Nanning is an obvious choice. I've got level 6 forts there. I'll have to put some blocks up the road toward Chungking for sure. It's good territory. The Chinese look to be shifting now too, and will add in I'm sure. I need to plug a few deeper gaps.

[Capt. Harlock]

round combat at 90,52 (near Nanking)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 6144 troops, 17 guns, 563 vehicles, Assault Value = 658

Defending force 2537 troops, 14 guns, 3 vehicles, Assault Value = 54

Allied adjusted assault: 386

Japanese adjusted defense: 1

Allied assault odds: 386 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(+), disruption(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
2866 casualties reported
Squads: 157 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 164 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 11 (11 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 3 (3 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Assaulting units:
194th Tank Battalion
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
775th Tank Battalion
706th Tank Battalion
44th Tank Battalion
3rd Motor Brigade

Defending units:
1st RGC Capital Division

You kind of buried the lead, there!

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

round combat at 90,52 (near Nanking)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 6144 troops, 17 guns, 563 vehicles, Assault Value = 658

Defending force 2537 troops, 14 guns, 3 vehicles, Assault Value = 54

Allied adjusted assault: 386

Japanese adjusted defense: 1

Allied assault odds: 386 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(+), disruption(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
2866 casualties reported
Squads: 157 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 164 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 11 (11 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 3 (3 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Assaulting units:
194th Tank Battalion
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
775th Tank Battalion
706th Tank Battalion
44th Tank Battalion
3rd Motor Brigade

Defending units:
1st RGC Capital Division

You kind of buried the lead, there!

This isn't really consequential. He already has 4-5 bases in the area, and although this is a VP gain and a decent base, my focus is on the much more important Shanghai, as well as the LOC to Central China from Hangchow to Changsha and Wuchang. I evacuated all but this poor Chinese RGC unit, and I should have moved that, but it would have been too slow to save I think.

Shanghai is now up to 2,200AV with forts 7, and 60k supply. Trying for 100k supply, if I have time, and more CD guns trying to move over as well. Should get to 2,500AV.

[mind_messing]

I'm beginning to think of where to hold in China. Nanning is an obvious choice. I've got level 6 forts there. I'll have to put some blocks up the road toward Chungking for sure. It's good territory. The Chinese look to be shifting now too, and will add in I'm sure. I need to plug a few deeper gaps.

IMO, you need to be focused on the VP situation.

The single biggest haul of possible VPs for the Allies here lie in the destruction of your troops. Base VP's are not insignificant, but less than the value were all your devices in China to be destroyed.

To that end, I think there needs to be a two-stage emphasis for your plans regarding the land war in China.

1. Looking at delaying the fall of major VP bases.
2. Withdrawing troops to Manchuria/Korea to delay the Soviet advance as much as possible.

In practical terms, for #1 that means stuffing the x2 and x3 hexes full of units you can afford to lose. Mid-range EXP, depleted units, poor TOE's - ram them into the cities.

Nanning is worth 60 VP's to Japan, and 6 to the Allies. Hong Kong is worth 160 and 640(!) to the Allies. Plus, it is x3 terrian. Plus it has a shipyard to enable upgrade/repair of Allied ships.

For the second point, it's unit preservation to enable you to enact #1 in Manchuria.

This is the numbers game that needs to drive IJA strategy now - festungs to delay bases that are going to fall soon, while withdrawing enough to make you do it further back as well.

Good luck!

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I'm beginning to think of where to hold in China. Nanning is an obvious choice. I've got level 6 forts there. I'll have to put some blocks up the road toward Chungking for sure. It's good territory. The Chinese look to be shifting now too, and will add in I'm sure. I need to plug a few deeper gaps.

IMO, you need to be focused on the VP situation.

The single biggest haul of possible VPs for the Allies here lie in the destruction of your troops. Base VP's are not insignificant, but less than the value were all your devices in China to be destroyed.

To that end, I think there needs to be a two-stage emphasis for your plans regarding the land war in China.

1. Looking at delaying the fall of major VP bases.
2. Withdrawing troops to Manchuria/Korea to delay the Soviet advance as much as possible.

In practical terms, for #1 that means stuffing the x2 and x3 hexes full of units you can afford to lose. Mid-range EXP, depleted units, poor TOE's - ram them into the cities.

Nanning is worth 60 VP's to Japan, and 6 to the Allies. Hong Kong is worth 160 and 640(!) to the Allies. Plus, it is x3 terrian. Plus it has a shipyard to enable upgrade/repair of Allied ships.

For the second point, it's unit preservation to enable you to enact #1 in Manchuria.

This is the numbers game that needs to drive IJA strategy now - festungs to delay bases that are going to fall soon, while withdrawing enough to make you do it further back as well.

Good luck!

Thanks. As always, I appreciate your thoughts on this.

I'm completely focused on the VP situation and that is driving virtually all of my strategies and tactics. The only other consideration I'm working with is delay. This also could have a big VP impact in several ways.

Firstly in giving the economy time to build more reserves, supply and HI before being crushed eventually.

Secondly in reducing the speed of Allied VP gains and putting pressure on to reach certain targets, but also to potentially redirect away from high value VP targets if the delay is too prohibitive. (I'm thinking Chungking here).

Finally, if everything takes longer to achieve, even if I lose some VPs in the process, it could make defence of other areas more secure, thus more VP Balanced by costing the Allies more to attack. More supply added, more forts built or units added/fleshed out.

Nanning is a river crossing. He has no idea what the fort there are currently. They're at 6 but could even move to 7 by the time of a crossing if I push. I also have a division sitting dug in NW of Nanning along the yellow road crossing. It has level 5 forts in x3 territory. Id love the Chinese to find that out the hard way. [;)]

He could go around Nanning, but that would be a longer journey without good roads to use.

I have to make stands in places that offer the possibility of a VP positive result. I'm not worried about the Soviets yet. That is months away. I'm worried about China now. I'd like to gain VPs in China where the terrain is good, then consider if there is anything left to fight the Soviets.

[mind_messing]

Nanning is going to get flanked by Allied units moving south-west of it through the countryside. They'll take Pakhoi, Kwangchown and before you know it there's Allied tanks in Wuchow and the south flank is gone.

For an Allied army marching from Indochina, I'd recommend defending between Nanning and Hanoi, and leave Nanning as the fall-back position once your troops have been pushed back. The timeline for the battle in my mind is that you hold for a week or two in the jungle E of Lang Song, get pushed into the open. You then get a terrible bombing and a worse Allied pursuit, but the Allied units then barrel into your 6 forts at Nanning and get bloodied. Making an immediate beeline for Nanning is an indication of prepared defences and would be begging for a flanking march SE.

However, I think that's too far forward for your situation, with the Allies in Central China.

Instead, I'd go deeper in to China and really play the VP game.

Tuyun-Kweiyang to deny an easy recapture of Chungking. Another force at Kweilin to block a drive on Changsha and a third force at Kukong to try and block any recapture of the coastal Chinese bases.

All these options have good road (and in two cases rail) links to Central China that you can use to bug out if you need to.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Nanning is going to get flanked by Allied units moving south-west of it through the countryside. They'll take Pakhoi, Kwangchown and before you know it there's Allied tanks in Wuchow and the south flank is gone.

For an Allied army marching from Indochina, I'd recommend defending between Nanning and Hanoi, and leave Nanning as the fall-back position once your troops have been pushed back. The timeline for the battle in my mind is that you hold for a week or two in the jungle E of Lang Song, get pushed into the open. You then get a terrible bombing and a worse Allied pursuit, but the Allied units then barrel into your 6 forts at Nanning and get bloodied. Making an immediate beeline for Nanning is an indication of prepared defences and would be begging for a flanking march SE.

However, I think that's too far forward for your situation, with the Allies in Central China.

Instead, I'd go deeper in to China and really play the VP game.

Tuyun-Kweiyang to deny an easy recapture of Chungking. Another force at Kweilin to block a drive on Changsha and a third force at Kukong to try and block any recapture of the coastal Chinese bases.

All these options have good road (and in two cases rail) links to Central China that you can use to bug out if you need to.

I completely get what you're trying to say and it's a good point on the psychology to not go direct to Nanning. I know that I've stymied this massive Allied army already, and some of it may not even be going this way since I've got some heading for Saigon, some on Malaya and some (most likely) getting ready to land amphibiously somewhere.

If I can hold, as you say for two weeks or so, that would set up much more of the defences inside China. I don't want to give up the Nanning-Liuchow area too quickly. There is a lot of delay potential there and to the North where the Chinese are marching.

I think if I can set this up and build a fort or two, I could hold and make him go around. There is a lot of good flak with this group so air strikes will be tough for the Allies too.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]May 25, 1945[/font]

---

A good day in the air. Some strikes beginning to destroy tanks in the clear in China. The Allies keep pushing armor forward with no AA to cover.

Down South air transport is bringing our trapped troops at Chumpon back to both Saigon and Singers. I'll send most to Palembang and Singers eventually.
[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR May 25, 1945
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Sub attack near Balabac at 71,84

Japanese Ships
SC Ch 16, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
PB Seikai Maru

Allied Ships
SS Swordfish

SS Swordfish launches 4 torpedoes at SC Ch 16

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF 808 encounters mine field at Shanghai (92,55) - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

13 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
DMS Gherardi, Shell hits 4, on fire
DMS Boggs, Shell hits 1

DMS Gherardi firing at Shanghai Special Base Force

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Marcus Island at 123,85, Range 10,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
PB Koei Maru, Shell hits 11, and is sunk
xAK Nitiai Maru, Shell hits 20, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
xAK Yamura Maru, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DD Compton
DD Gainard
DD Purdy, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships Reported to be Approaching!
Japanese TF suspends unloading operations and begins to get underway
Improved night sighting under 100% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 100% moonlight: 11,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Wuchang at 84,51

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-49-IIb Helen: 13 damaged
Ki-49-IIb Helen: 1 destroyed on ground
Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy: 5 damaged
N1K5-J George: 7 damaged

Allied Ships
CL Nigeria
DD Shaw

Japanese ground losses:
32 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Merchant Shipyard hits 2
Airbase hits 10
Runway hits 22
Port hits 10
Port fuel hits 5
Port supply hits 2

CL Nigeria firing at Wuchang
DD Shaw firing at Wuchang

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Shanghai at 92,55 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

14 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
CL Ceylon, Shell hits 1

CL Ceylon firing at Chugoku JNAF Base Force
Chugoku JNAF Base Force firing at CL Ceylon

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 767th Tank Battalion, at 91,48 , near Suchow

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 47 NM, estimated altitude 43,370 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K5-J George x 27

Allied aircraft
Corsair IV x 7
F4U-1D Corsair x 6
P-51D Mustang x 19

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Corsair IV: 2 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 2 destroyed
P-51D Mustang: 6 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x N1K5-J George sweeping at 39370 feet *

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 767th Tank Battalion, at 91,48 , near Suchow

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy x 8

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 5 (2 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 767th Tank Battalion, at 91,48 , near Suchow

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 28
Ki-49-IIb Helen x 27
Ki-83 x 14

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 9 (7 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
21 x Ki-49-IIb Helen bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 2/4th Armoured Regiment, at 93,50 , near Hwaiyin

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 12 NM, estimated altitude 43,530 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 27

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 9

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 3 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
24 x Ki-83 sweeping at 41530 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Wuhu (89,53)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 7776 troops, 23 guns, 710 vehicles, Assault Value = 663

Defending force 3440 troops, 45 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 41

Allied adjusted assault: 333

Japanese adjusted defense: 27

Allied assault odds: 12 to 1 (fort level 1)

Allied forces CAPTURE Wuhu !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
2101 casualties reported
Squads: 44 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 86 destroyed, 14 disabled
Engineers: 22 destroyed, 6 disabled
Guns lost 19 (14 destroyed, 5 disabled)
Units retreated 2

Allied ground losses:
Units pursuing 2

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
44th Tank Battalion
775th Tank Battalion
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
194th Tank Battalion
706th Tank Battalion
3rd Motor Brigade

Defending units:
22nd RGC Temp. Division
15th Base Force


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/color][/font]