Did You Know I Used to Drive a Rollercoaster?: Apbarog(A) vs OPilot(J)

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: apbarog

This is all still about a month and a half away, I figure. I need to run the Darwin operation first, and get all the shipping from Australia to Ceylon first.

I'm curious about the timing. My casual estimate is that these things always take longer than is thought at first. So 1.5 months sounds rather optimistic. On the other hand, you proved in your game against Walker that you can keep up a relentless pace of operations that kept the enemy off balance.

[apbarog]

It may be optimistic, but that's the current plan. Best case scenario is that the Allied carriers go to Darwin for that invasion, refuel from AOs there while guarding the landing, then jump up towards Koepang for a strike there. The purpose of that strike, however, would be to get into a position for a full speed run to the southwest, one that hopefully makes the carriers disappear and hides the fact that they went west. That would shorten the trip to Ceylon considerably.

I'm pre-postioning AOs at Melbourne now. xAPs from Brisbane, Sydney and Auckland will gather there and move towards Perth. They'll then move northwest after rounding the southwestern tip of Australia, to meet up with the carriers coming down from the Koepang strike. The gaggle will then continue to Ceylon.

If nothing is spotted, the Burma operation could be a complete surprise. If they are spotted, we'll probably go ahead anyway.

As for the pace, it's driven by how fast ground units can prepare. I don't waste any time. The Marine Division at Horn Island started prepping for Koepang immediately when Horn was cleared. A Koepang invasion wouldn't occur until after the Burma operation, so it's down the road, but that's how to keep on the offensive. Keep the pace up and keep hitting in different areas. Do that in '42 and the war will be shorter.

[apbarog]

15 Nov 42

Lots of enemy subs along the Australian coast, mostly from Cairns south to Townsville.

Kusaie Island is back to getting bombed every day with Bettys, with both types of Zeros escorting and/or sweeping. With the airfield out of action, this is to be expected. Subs continue to bring in supply, and 3 APDs are positioning for a fast transport run in. All ground units on Kusaie have less supply than needed. But if OPilot doesn't land troops here, it does not matter.

Allied bombers hit Myitkyina, doing moderate damage in light rain. I want to keep the airfield damaged to keep Ledo's airfield safer, and to show interest in the interior of Burma.

B-24s moved to Chungking to hit an armor unit 3 hexes east of Ningsia. I didn't have recon on the unit initially, but I had SigInt. I set recon to the hex and set the bombers to hit the hex. That was yesterday. The recon flew but the bombers did not. I reassigned the B-24s to hit the troops at Ningsia today, but the unit they attacked was the 21st AA Regiment, and they hit nothing in moderate rain. In the clear terrain, I was hoping for more. I'm sending the bombers back to India now. Chungking gets enemy recon every day and the heavies are tempting targets.

Sallys and Oscars from Darwin bombed troops on Gove for the first time. Minor damage to a Marine Raider battalion. The base is building quickly, and could have a size 1 airfield tomorrow.

US troops attacked on the Kokoda Trail.

Ground combat at Kokoda (98,129)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 12186 troops, 194 guns, 125 vehicles, Assault Value = 367

Defending force 4679 troops, 58 guns, 6 vehicles, Assault Value = 24

Allied adjusted assault: 301

Japanese adjusted defense: 49

Allied assault odds: 6 to 1 (fort level 0)

Allied forces CAPTURE Kokoda !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1514 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 88 destroyed, 11 disabled
Engineers: 14 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 14 (6 destroyed, 8 disabled)
Vehicles lost 7 (7 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 7

Allied ground losses:
45 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
41st Infantry Division
I US Corps

Defending units:
14th Naval Construction Battalion
3rd Base Force
8th JNAF AF Unit
41st Field AA Battalion
39th Field AA Battalion
15th Naval Construction Battalion
40th JNAF AF Unit

The enemy units were wrecked a second time, with the first being at Port Moresby. The enemy retreated to Buna, and the US troops are headed there also. Two engineer units at Port Moresby are headed inland: one to Kokoda and the other to Buna. MacArthur and the Southwest HQ are being shipped from Portland Roads to Port Moresby. About 1/3 of the HQ has arrived. 2 more trips of the task force used are needed to get the rest to New Guinea. The HQ bonus will be in effect for Buna, whether it's needed or not. MacArthur is getting tasked with a slow clearing of New Guinea. It is not a priority and will take time, using limited resources.

US carriers are spotted southbound hugging the Australian coast. Lots of shipping will get to Townsville tomorrow, including the Americal Division, which will unload and then do a combat load for Darwin.

Parts of a commando unit are shipping into Gove on APDs. Some arrived last night, others today. The rest awaits a couple of APDs to arrive at Normanton. I wanted a bit of combat strength there since we battled there and OPilot knows exactly what strength (or lack thereof) I have there.

[apbarog]

16 Nov 42

More enemy mines spotted near Horn Island. These are to the southeast. Minesweepers get to work immediately.

Thresher fired 4 torpedoes at RO-66 near Kavieng. One hit but was a dud. The applicable dud rate for the war is now 84.3%.

P-38s sweep Myitkyina, and many medium and heavy bombers hit the airfield. Damage is shockingly small for the number of bombers in severe storms.

Bettys bomb Kusaie. The base damage is increasing. No chance to move in fighters. Enemy ships now at Ponape. I will risk 3 APDs running into Kusaie tonight to drop off supply. I'll probably lose them.

I tried to sneak in 4 small cargo ships to Wessel Islands to drop off supply. Didn't work.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Wessel Islands at 83,126

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 17
G3M3 Nell x 13

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M3 Nell: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
xAKL Kindur, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
xAKL Mulubinda, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
PC Yandra, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
xAKL Karuah, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

Aircraft Attacking:
13 x G3M3 Nell launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp

Just a dozen Nells sank 4 ships. One xAKL was not hit, and will move to Gove to unload supply. Gove just became a size 1 port and airfield, so I moved in 2 good fighter squadrons. Maybe the cargo ship will bait the Bettys into returning. I should have just waited for the air coverage and then moved in the ships.

I'd been alternating between bombing Buin and Shortlands in the Solomons. OPilot moved some fighters to a base just to the north and ambushed the bombers. 9 B-26s were lost.

Americal is unloading at Townsville. The US carriers are there. The US CVEs are also, but they are now leaving for Luganville. They may support a move to the Kusaie area and/or Kwajalein, given the opportunity.

Over the next 2 weeks, many xAKs will be converted to xAPs all over the map. The first batches finish tomorrow. Ships in the South Pacific will move to Melbourne, to wait to move to Ceylon. Ships at Capetown and Aden will move to Bombay. Before the Burma operation, they'll be moving all of the invasion troops from Bombay to Ceylon.

[apbarog]

17 Nov 42

Yesterday, Nells sank 3 xAKLs and an escort at Wessel Island. I sent the remaining xAKL to Gove to unload and hoped that it might draw more bombers, now that Gove has an airfield and CAP. That didn't work out. I-32 was at Gove during the night and engaged xAKL Sjobris with torpedoes and guns, sinking the lone ship.

But things didn't go well for the enemy at Gove either. 42 Oscars swept but found a squadron of P-40Ks and P-39Ds. These 2 squadrons have the best of the US pilots, and have seen action recently at Port Moresby. The Oscars were massacred. Then 13 Nells arrived, escorted by 36 Zeros, targeting PT boats that were just moved to Gove. Again, it was a slaughter. Total air losses were 23 Oscars, 11 Nells and 9 A6M2 Zeros for the loss of 4 P-39s and 2 P-40Ks. 3 pilots achieved ace status.

Top ace Cpt. W.E. Dyess shot down 2 more enemy, giving him 12 kills, flying a P-40K. The worst pilot in his unit has 75 experience and 71 air-to-air skill, so they are good. The unit now has 9 aces. The P-39s fought well also, but didn't achieve the kill numbers that the P-40s did. The P-39 unit will be outstanding when they upgrade to something better, but that won't be for awhile. Remember this is a PDU-OFF game.

I find it more interesting and more enjoyable having to use the older airframes. They can contribute and do well, in the right situation and with good pilots.

More clearing of Japanese mines around Horn Island.

East of Ningsia, B-25s bomb the 13th and 17th Tank Regiments in movement mode, destroying a tank and disabling 20. The tanks are in the far north of China, moving to flank Ningsia from the south. I have one of the few Chinese AT units in Ningsia. It will move to the south to help cover the flank.

Heavy bombers hit Myitkyina again, further damaging the airfield.

Pompano spotted 3 battleships near Ponape. It's the bombardment force that keeps hitting Kusaie. During the day, multiple enemy task forces are seen at and near Kusaie Island. KB is here too. I pull the undamaged Catalinas out. Kusaie is about to be counter-invaded.

[apbarog]

18 Nov 42

More mines spotted around Horn Island, and they are being cleared.

Grenadier braved the shallow waters at Wewak, where ships were spotted yesterday. 4 torpedoes were fired at destroyer Kamikaze. One hit but was a dud. Grenadier suffered minor damage from depth charges and will retreat out of the shallows.

Swordfish spotted a task force with 4 AO's due west of Truk. Torpedoes missed a patrol boat.

Be careful what you ask for. I've always wanted Kusaie Island to get the enemy's attention, and be a focal point for it, while I concentrated elsewhere. That has worked for months really. I've held the island, and the enemy keeps bombing it and sending in bombardment task forces, which destroy all of the supply and damage the troops. I sneak in some supply, and things improve a bit.

The day of reckoning has finally arrived. To say that OPilot sent in everything, as far as naval goes, is no understatement.

Night Naval bombardment of Kusaie Island at 125,118

Japanese Ships
BB Hyuga
BB Ise
BB Yamashiro
BB Fuso
CL Yubari

Allied ground losses:
310 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 45 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 40 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 1
Port hits 2

and

Night Naval bombardment of Kusaie Island at 125,118

Japanese Ships
BB Kirishima
BB Hiei
BB Haruna
BB Kongo
CA Kinugasa
CL Agano

Allied ground losses:
529 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 23 destroyed, 47 disabled
Engineers: 8 destroyed, 19 disabled
Vehicles lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Airbase hits 4
Airbase supply hits 5
Runway hits 26
Port hits 12
Port supply hits 2

Then the invasion task force(s) start to unload, and Yamato is embedded in one of them. Yes, 9 battleships hitting Kusaie Island. I've never seen that kind of concentration before. And KB is here too. I see the Guards Mixed Bde and the 24th Infantry Rgt unloading. There were over 400 enemy casualties from unloading, so they weren't fully prepped.

At Kusaie, I sent Dutch sub KXVII in to the shallows, on a mission that might be suicidal with so many enemy ships there. But the sub comes up big, firing 4 torpedoes at destroyer Fumizuki and hitting it once. Fumizuki is in the Hyuga task force. We didn't get a battleship, but we got something, and KXVII got away unscathed. It will now patrol around the island.

Bettys bombed the US armor unit on Kusaie, disabling some tanks.

Heavy bombers hit Darwin, and ran up against Oscars and Rufes. Losses were heavy, with 7 B-24s and 2 B-17s lost. 10 Oscars were lost today in total, some and maybe most at Darwin. Flak was heavy.

So, with 9 enemy battleships hitting Kusaie, it probably was a good thing that we didn't rush the carriers there for a huge carrier battle. Allied strikes would have been very diluted and hit battleships instead of carriers. The Allies, at this point, don't have the luxury of so many battleships with their carriers. Kusaie will be lost, maybe quickly. The only ground unit with supply is the armor unit. The full regiment is mostly disabled and disruption is 80. The partial regiment wasn't hit by the bombardments. Hopefully the defenders can put up a good showing. There's no help, other than supply from subs, coming.

[RangerJoe]

Get at least fragments out so you won't have to buy them back and you can start it rebuilding right away.

I wonder if that operation was named Kitchen Sink if he has that much force there . . .

[apbarog]

Some of the fragment issue is already solved. The other half of one of the regiments never got to Kusaie. That unit, and the other full regiment, are part of the same division, with the 3rd regiment at Tabiteuea. So it can be rebuilt in the region. I have no fragment of the armor unit or the air support unit.

I won't be trying to fly anything out on Catalinas with KB right there covering the island in fighters. This die is already cast.

[jwolf]

At least the IJN concentration at Kusaie gives you a near total free hand for your ops at Darwin and vicinity.

[apbarog]

Well, that's the plan. Whether or not it is a good plan is debatable.

[apbarog]

19 Nov 42

Enemy troops continued to unload at Kusaie Island. The 2 task forces with 4 battleships each again bombarded the island, but did less damage having less ammo. Still over 250 casualties and added disruption. Argonaut was unloading supply at Kusaie, but 2 subchaser appeared and hunted the sub. Argonaut was hit with a depth charge in the shallow water. Damage was not great, with just 10 FLOT damage, but it's enough for the sub to leave the area. It will go back to Pearl Harbor for repair and an overdue upgrade.

56 Bettys bombed troops on Kusaie. Then 18 Bettys. Then 15 Bettys. Then 87 Vals and 20 Kates with 91 Zero escorts. (the carrier bombers hit nothing in clear sky) In the afternoon, carrier planes returned. More of them this time. 110 Vals and 130 Kates with 97 Zero escorts. They did cause over 100 casualties this time in light rain.

KB moved to just east of the island. Lots of Allied subs in the area but the big enemy ships have been lucky and avoided them so far.

And then no ground attack. Looks like OPilot will wait till the troops are well rested and continue to hammer the US troops for awhile.

Loading for the Darwin invasion begins at Townsville and Port Moresby. Loading will take one or two days. Allied efforts at minesweeping and sub-hunting near Horn Island are intensifying.

A few Tinas were ops losses today. This is very rare, and hasn't happened in a long time. I suspect that they are dropping supply on Kusaie, but they could be anywhere doing anything. OPilot does like to make use of transports to resupply ground units. I haven't had much of an opportunity to try to interdict this, so far.

I got SigInt that an enemy CVE is moving to Soerabaja. I have no idea what the smaller enemy carriers have been doing for months. Never seen. I wonder if any have been on fishing expeditions between Australia and Ceylon. I've sent nothing on this route in many months. I wonder that now because soon I'll be sending a large fleet this way.

[apbarog]

20 Nov 42

Enemy troops continue to land at Kusaie Island. All of the battleships remained at the island but didn't engage again. KB has circled the island and is now just SW of it. No airstrikes from KB today, but a 72 Betty strike from Truk did hit the armor unit there.

There can be no doubt of the outcome at Kusaie tomorrow. During the replay, the total combat value of the US troops was shown as 0.

Ground combat at Kusaie Island (125,118)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 13194 troops, 133 guns, 2 vehicles, Assault Value = 420

Defending force 4458 troops, 102 guns, 150 vehicles, Assault Value = 137

Assaulting units:
Guards Mixed Brigade
24th Infantry Regiment
16th Infantry Regiment
2nd Recon Regiment
Sasebo 6th SNLF
2nd Field Artillery Regiment
54th JNAF AF Unit

Defending units:
2nd USMC Tank Battalion
148th Infantry Regiment
145th Infantry Rgt /5
13th MAG
5th Marine Defense Battalion
5th US Naval Construction Battalion

Catalinas will attempt to evacuate a fragment from 4 of the US units at Kusaie. The associated infantry regiment at Tabiteuea will head to Luganville to join the fragments of that division already there. The division will then rebuild.

Ships for Darwin are moving now.

[RangerJoe]

If the KB and the BBs are in Cent Pac, does that leave the DEA/SRA open enough for you to exploit? Even if it is just to base bombers and pound oil centers

[apbarog]

Yes. After Darwin, Timor is probably next. Preparations aren't very high yet for that, but it would be worth taking one of the smaller bases on eastern Timor and take the disruptions for an unprepared unit, then land other units afterwards and march to Koepang.

However, not much will probably happen after Darwin in the near term, since the US fleet is headed to Ceylon for a big amphibious landing in Burma. Reopening the Burma Road and getting supply into China is the priority there.

[RangerJoe]

Thank you.

He may regret being occupied in Cent Pac but be careful.

[apbarog]

21 Nov 42

Subchasers near Kusaie Island hit Dutch sub KXVII twice with depth charges. Damage is moderate to severe, with SYS 31/FLOT 53-41/ENG 2/FIRE 0. It will most likely make it to safety at Tabiteuea.

The P-38Gs make their first appearance, and do well, sweeping Gasmata. 22 or so Lightnings found 29 A6M2 Zeros. 18 Zeros were downed for the loss of 3 Lightnings. 3 more aces were made, although one was MIA. These pilots are the best of the best. The goal was to clear the skies for the divebombers. Enemy ships were still at Gasmata, but the bombers didn't fly.

70 or 80 Bettys bombed US troops on Kusaie Island. KB remained nearby, and sent 110 Vals and 130 Kates with 101 Zeros to hit the troops. Catalinas successfully retrieved fragments of 4 of the units there. Only the armor unit remained there entirely.

Then Kusaie Island fell, as expected.

Ground combat at Kusaie Island (125,118)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 14193 troops, 137 guns, 44 vehicles, Assault Value = 437

Defending force 4081 troops, 102 guns, 149 vehicles, Assault Value = 125

Japanese adjusted assault: 207

Allied adjusted defense: 19

Japanese assault odds: 10 to 1 (fort level 3)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Kusaie Island !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
623 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 67 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
3179 casualties reported
Squads: 169 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 279 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 17 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 123 (123 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 159 (159 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 6

Assaulting units:
16th Infantry Regiment
Guards Mixed Brigade
24th Infantry Regiment
2nd Recon Regiment
Sasebo 6th SNLF
2nd Field Artillery Regiment
54th JNAF AF Unit

Defending units:
2nd USMC Tank Battalion
148th Infantry Regiment
145th Infantry Rgt /5
13th MAG
5th Marine Defense Battalion
5th US Naval Construction Battalion

Now the question is where will KB and the 9 battleships go next.

Darwin invasion shipping is now at and south of Horn Island. Allied carriers have not been spotted, so far, moving up the coast of Australia. Transports were seen leaving Port Moresby.

[apbarog]

22 Nov 42

Near Ponape, Scorpion fired 4 torpedoes at large AO Toho Maru. One torpedo hit and was NOT a dud. The ship had fuel and it was burning. Sinking audio was heard right after combat. I'm chalking that up as a big tanker sunk.

An ABDA light cruiser task force went to Milne Bay, to threaten a move to intercept enemy activity going to Buna, and to cover an inbound transport task force to Milne Bay. At Milne Bay, the ships found enemy mines. 2 destroyers cleared a few mines, then CL Hobart hit one. Hobart is SYS 32/FLOT 28-22/ENG 11-10/FIRE 0 and will retire to Brisbane for repairs. 3 CLs and 1 DD will move a bit south to rendezvous with the inbound transports, and then escort the transports the rest of the way to Milne Bay. There are no enemy mines seen at Milne Bay today, so, as often seems to happen, the last mine is swept in the most unfortunate way.

Medium bombers hit Merauke. I'm increasing the bombing today as the Darwin armada will probably be seen just west of Horn Island today. Might as well make it look like Merauke is the target on the way to Darwin.

With Kusaie Island lost yesterday, the Allies have lost eyes in that area. No sign of KB today. They may be with the AO that was sunk. OPilot uses his replenishment ships regularly with KB, even with large ports nearby.

[Lowpe]

So, instead of dropping everything to stop the advance into the SRA, Japan continued on with their counter attack at Kusaie, and now are poised to do what I wonder.

Very interesting and bodes well for a great continuing game with plenty of surprises.[:)]

Can't wait to see what happens next!

[apbarog]

My opponent could be wondering the same of my actions. No intervention when Kusaie was being counter-attacked. I would have had to been in the area, and unseen, for a long period of time, waiting for a counter-invasion that I didn't know was going to happen. I held Kusaie for months. I would have made no progress elsewhere. But my opponent could see things differently.

Once Darwin is taken, Timor is threatened, and with Taberfane and Dobo, a move to north to Boela or Ambon is possible. There gets to be so many places for the Japanese to defend that it becomes impossible. The best they can do is bring KB there and have the inevitable big battle.

And if the Japanese concentrate there, I'll move back to Kusaie/Ponape or Kwajalein/Roi Namur.

And let's not forget, immediately after Darwin, the US fleet is going to Ceylon.

[apbarog]

23 Nov 42

Oscars swept Dobo, followed by about 20 Lilys. No CAP. Very minor damage to the airfield, all of which is repaired by the end of the day. I moved fighters into Dobo and Taberfane today, with each range capping the other base.

B-25s and B-17s bombed Merauke, including the troops there. Just 2 units there, and almost no combat strength. I'll be taking the base, but not just yet.

The Allied armada for Darwin will near Gove today. OPilot has had support ships at Darwin. Some days they are at Darwin, in a task force. Other days they move northwest of the base. I think he fears putting them into port, as I've bombed the port before, and he moves them to Darwin when he needs to rearm ships. Only thing I can figure.

P-38s moved to Gove to prepare to sweep Darwin with the invasion.

And oddly, there's still lots of battleships at Kusaie Island.