Good points and definitely worth considering. What I liked about it, was that it was "army" level HQ's. I haven't seen any other intel reports of any other troops (HQ, INF, Arm etc.) that are targeting anything else. I keep an eye on it every day. These two bits of intel have been the only "planning for an attack" intel for a base that wasn't in the "usual" expansion regions so it's what I have to follow, for the time being.
The only thing I really have to fear is an invasion along India's coast between Madras and Calcutta, combined with an attempt to blockade Ceylon and prevent the units there from getting to the mainland. All of that would fall in range of my super-secret heavy bomber base, though

If he pushes heavy through Burma, I'll have plenty of advance notice and can take countermeasures.
If he lands elsewhere in Oz, well that's ok because I have a good rail line and am keeping some of the troops close to Perth in strat mode to quickly relocate if the need arises.
I hope the presence of my units in the Gilbert Islands will keep his attention long enough to complete reinforcement of Pago Pago. I'm good with my other bases (for the most part). I'd like to flesh out Kure Island a little better, and would like to get some decent quality stuff into Canton and Baker Island. Right now I’m shuttling 2 ship baby boat tf’s between PH and Dutch Harbor as a picket line. Once Adak gets a little more built up and can accept fuel, I’ll make that picket line run between Midway and Adak, thus my desire to slightly improve Kure Island as an alternate PBY and maybe a "couple fighter squadron" base.
I think he thinks that I have the Brit 18th Division in Rangoon. I don't.

That, along with another division's worth of Indian troops, are at the bases 2 and 5? hexes east of Perth.