8MP Team Game - The Axis team

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: xhoel


@Aces: The Germans cannot properly recover after a strong winter offensive, not unless they completely drain their manpower reserves. I think it is best to get used to what you have, keep good divisions on high TOEs to get the most out of it. The Guard defense lines do look quite formidable indeed. Don't forget that fort level 3 counts as dense terrain so AFVs perform much worse in it.

I agree very much with that saying and I used that way of thinking when defending during the Soviet offensive to good result.

Your AAR won't be the only one reaching 1945 [;)] I look forward to another update and more discussion on the matter.

Good luck to the both of you!

Strong is open to interpretation. To establish a baseline for the conversation please define "strong winter offensive". What are the parameters that the Germans cannot properly recover from? What is that threshold line that the Germans have to be cognitive of?

BrianG doesn't quit so I can only assume my game may be a long haul too. We shall see.

[xhoel]

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain

ORIGINAL: xhoel


@Aces: The Germans cannot properly recover after a strong winter offensive, not unless they completely drain their manpower reserves. I think it is best to get used to what you have, keep good divisions on high TOEs to get the most out of it. The Guard defense lines do look quite formidable indeed. Don't forget that fort level 3 counts as dense terrain so AFVs perform much worse in it.

I agree very much with that saying and I used that way of thinking when defending during the Soviet offensive to good result.

Your AAR won't be the only one reaching 1945 [;)] I look forward to another update and more discussion on the matter.

Good luck to the both of you!

Strong is open to interpretation. To establish a baseline for the conversation please define "strong winter offensive". What are the parameters that the Germans cannot properly recover from? What is that threshold line that the Germans have to be cognitive of?

BrianG doesn't quit so I can only assume my game may be a long haul too. We shall see.

An offensive where the Germans suffer heavy losses which impacts morale, TOEs and eventually experience of the units involved. Add the loss of formations to the mix and you have a strong Soviet offensive. Of those parameters the Germans can recover morale (to an extent) and TOEs (to an extent) but if a unit has been hit hard it will have a hard time recovering experience under the current bug that is part of the game system. Both the Germans and the Soviets will be different after the winter, the Soviets will be in a better position (Guards, Morale increase, possibility to increase exp etc) while the Germans will be in a worse position (lower TOEs, lower morale, lower exp) just like it was historically.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: xhoel

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain

ORIGINAL: xhoel


@Aces: The Germans cannot properly recover after a strong winter offensive, not unless they completely drain their manpower reserves. I think it is best to get used to what you have, keep good divisions on high TOEs to get the most out of it. The Guard defense lines do look quite formidable indeed. Don't forget that fort level 3 counts as dense terrain so AFVs perform much worse in it.

I agree very much with that saying and I used that way of thinking when defending during the Soviet offensive to good result.

Your AAR won't be the only one reaching 1945 [;)] I look forward to another update and more discussion on the matter.

Good luck to the both of you!

Strong is open to interpretation. To establish a baseline for the conversation please define "strong winter offensive". What are the parameters that the Germans cannot properly recover from? What is that threshold line that the Germans have to be cognitive of?

BrianG doesn't quit so I can only assume my game may be a long haul too. We shall see.

An offensive where the Germans suffer heavy losses which impacts morale, TOEs and eventually experience of the units involved. Add the loss of formations to the mix and you have a strong Soviet offensive. Of those parameters the Germans can recover morale (to an extent) and TOEs (to an extent) but if a unit has been hit hard it will have a hard time recovering experience under the current bug that is part of the game system. Both the Germans and the Soviets will be different after the winter, the Soviets will be in a better position (Guards, Morale increase, possibility to increase exp etc) while the Germans will be in a worse position (lower TOEs, lower morale, lower exp) just like it was historically.

Don't want to detract much further so probably should make another thread for this one if there is interest.

I know the effects and causes of the Soviet Offensive. I am looking for the specifics in the numbers. I have my numbers that the Germans cannot recover from my many German games. As such, I am really looking for, from others, the numbers or approximation of loss amounts to be not properly recovered from a "strong Soviet offense". Or if there are other parameters that need to be considered I would like to know others opinion on this too.

Thank you in advance all that answer.

[xhoel]

You have way many more games than me under your belt and this is my first ever GC to go this far so I cannot give you any concrete numbers. Maybe others will be more helpful.

Cheers!

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: xhoel

You have way many more games than me under your belt and this is my first ever GC to go this far so I cannot give you any concrete numbers. Maybe others will be more helpful.

Cheers!

Thank you Xhoel, but I am afraid no one else will take up the conversation. Thus it is at an end.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: xhoel

You have way many more games than me under your belt and this is my first ever GC to go this far so I cannot give you any concrete numbers. Maybe others will be more helpful.

Cheers!

I am a newbie to this game. However, one can look at the AAR's of more advanced players and see some trends. It is not just the condition of the German Army, but I propose to you the condition of the German Army compared to the Soviet Army and available Manpower centers.

Eight MP at turn 62 Germans 3.77M Soviets 5.26M Manpower can replace aboutXK losses per turn .. anymore and Manpower goes down.. That is different than Soveit 6.1M as an example.

[Crackaces]

TURN 57 AIR:

The air war is tempered this turn by predicted Mud in the North sector. Just when the offense starts there is a pause.

What the Germans found was a concentration of air power within a cluster of air bases near Saratov. After recon, the Soviet fighter group ranges are capped at 3 hexes (one airbase in the middle could not be easily disaggregated, it is probably also 3 but in theory could be 4 from recon data.

As some of the air bases within the cluster are more than 3 hexes from each other there are weaknesses in the set up (see similar in AAR for air war turn 53). Hence the air base on one end of the cluster could be attacked without the fighters at the other end coming out in its defense.

There was an evenly balanced argument as to whether to go to the attack this turn. But with mud probably next turn it made more sense to take the opportunity now and use mud to rotate damaged air groups through reserve.

The execution of the air war started with 22 fighter mission air groups on the first fighter sweep. This represented the biggest single sweep ever. Stopping the fighter force flying again this turn was not a prospect - but the fighter force was not damaged enough to allow big bomber raids on their airbases. The airfield attacks were really de facto fighter sweeps with only one bomber group selected in each case.

Technically the air war this turn was probably a tactical draw - each side lost roughly the same number of fighters as a proportion of their rate of production. However strategically it was still a win. The presumption is that the Luftwaffe fighter pools are healthy and the spreadsheet wars assess that the Soviet ones are not. And these battles at the moment are reducing Soviet fighter experience/morale levels that were built up under old game versions to the caps of the latest versions.

The ground offensive near the Tsna River allows for a staging base and the bombing of the La5 factory in Gorky. The target is the only fighter-mission aircraft factory not evacuated in 1941.

The air and the ground strategies are interlocked.

[Crackaces]

Air losses:

I use last logistical phase and axis turn to determine losses.

[Crackaces]

The screen shot below shows the status of the South. The Soviets go into a checkerboard pattern while the Germans expand their land grab. The plan from the German perspective is working in that the rails are showing units moving into the Caucasus.

[Telemecus]

To add to the discussion about recon planes in combat - see the you tube video below. It describes a dogfight involving the Fi156c reconnaissance plane today 74 years ago where the pilot took out his pistol to engage the enemy plane. Weirder still for an aerial combat it ended with one pilot taking the other pilot as a captured prisoner of war!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAf0maieLjs

[Crackaces]

TURN 58:

With the controversy surrounding the U2VS factories I thought I would point out that Stalin has ordered the maximum effort to defend the precious aircraft platforms. [:D]



AIR war update:

Korten has been reassigned to FKIV and has for turns been arranging the massive fuel lift to 1st Panzer army who was snatching hexes for the Fatherland.

After bombing the Gorky fighter factory last turn, it is very well defended now. That means the Germans will need to get Gorky within fighter range. Unescorted bombing would be disastrous. Now the 2nd and 3rd panzer armies will have an extended mission. The LW conducts its first bombing raid ever on the Urals - at Chkalov.


A third cluster of fighter bases near Syzran has appeared and might be attackable! But alas ...mud means no real air war this turn. But maybe next turn? That will mean pulling out the bombers from reserve.


The entire Luftwaffe level bomber force continues to upgrade - and the best Finnish fighter airgroups manually swapped to the longest range models. With Soviet airbases now leaving the Finnish move area completely the only chance for strategic action will be long distance fighter sweeps. Otherwise the Finnish airforce is tasked to tactical management of the JanisJarvi ..

[Telemecus]

I make that 8 stacked airbases with fighters to provide cover for the U2VS factory? Nothing betrays M60A3TTS' intentions to that factory more than the facts [:'(]

[Crackaces]

One can see from the above posting that the North sector is mud this turn. That means the whole AGC front is grounded to a halt. So this turn is devoted to reorganization of the German Army.

149 units listed under German infantry
-10 indep regiments
-10 due to 5 being broken down to brigades
=129 infantry divisions

There are 7 armies to contain German units. 16,18,9,4,2,17,6 = 7 armies
-10 indep regiments
-10 due to 5 being broken down to brigades
=129 infantry divisions

16,18,9,4,2,17,6 = 7 armies 7*13=91 divisions
We will devote the 11th army for mountain and cavalry units to address the Caucasus Mountains.


There are 4 independent corps 4*3= 12 divisions assigned on the Oka river

Finnish = 10 German divisions assigned in the North.

More indep corps = XII plus spares from 4th and 6th - also ViFn =3*3=9

total=122 Divisions

Panzer armies have space for 9 more infantry (5 are already in them)

The decision is to use 8 Italian Army for North just below the Finns.

The below picture also shows the front. There is a huge salient that will be the major source of conflci the coming turns.

[Crackaces]

Turn 58:

I want to show the Caucasus in detail at turn 58. The Soviets have responded. The goal is to draw the Soviets into a fight down here with the thoughts that the Soviets do not have the Manpower to spare. In addition, the Germans have moved cavalry units into position. These units can move quickly in the open clear terrain and shift momentum very quickly. The mountain units obviously have an advantage in both mobility and CV's in the rough terrain.

[Elessar2]

Very unconventional strategy of defending Grozny while leaving the road to Astrakhan wide open (for the moment)...

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Elessar2

Very unconventional strategy of defending Grozny while leaving the road to Astrakhan wide open (for the moment)...

First, that is what I see -- there could (and I suspect) more forces hidden. The swamps for example constrain recon effectiveness.

We are on turn 64 and this gap still exists. M60 is covering Astrakhan through a Gambit at the moment. I can't reach in one turn in force and if I get too far extended he has the forces to isolate. As it is I isolate Soviets …

The Soviets have a huge problem on turn 64... so I am not sure how many units that could be allocated to such an effort ..

[Crackaces]

Soviet Rail:

Edit: corrected figures surmised from turn 1. Actual railyard factory point = 500 railcap

I think it is worth at this point to start discussing Soviet Railyard resources. A look at a beginning Soviet 1941 campaign shows that the Soviets start with 306 railyard points and 76,500 rail cap. A little algebra shows that each rail point equals 250 railcap points on the first turn. Every turn after than each railyard factory point = 500 railcap points. There are a couple of interesting problems in this game.

1. Most of the railyard points are located in Moscow (32), Leningrad (20), baku (18), Saratov (15), Stalingrad (12) Gorky (10) Kharkov (8) …. One can see that 20% of the railyard points are located in the big three cities now in possession of the Germans. Actually, most of the major railyard factories are in possession by the Germans. Stalingrad remains a huge objective (spoiler .. it is in the German hands now).

2. A lot of railyard factories are located in towns in (1) and (2). This is an interesting problem because the game makes it easier to hit factories of (1) than (18). So quietly since about turn 45 the Germans have been bombing railyards.

3. After grabbing hexes in the Caucasus .. the Germans turn North while endangering an aircraft factory in Gorky from the air. So what is the plan? Fundamentally force the Soviets to make decisions about rail use. Either rail units or factories. The Germans have focused on rail to reduce the ability of the Soviets to react. Although M60 is defending on the Volga and units can walk to destinations the Caucasus is not so easy to walk to in one turn.

[Kantti]

Soviet railcap is more likely near 150k in start of 1941. It is quirked in couple of first turns, but then stabilizes (after initial losses) to around 135-140k....

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Kantti

Soviet railcap is more likely near 150k in start of 1941. It is quirked in couple of first turns, but then stabilizes (after initial losses) to around 135-140k....

Thank you! I have corrected the prior post. 1 Railyard factory = 500 railcap points.

I estimate between 140-150 railyard factories? for about 70K railcap. (Spreadsheet in progress.)

An armor corps = 3200~ railcap
A Guards division 2400~
Armor Brg 1500~

So about 21 armored units could be put on the rails .. 29 divisions ..

NOW back to turn 58 ..

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

ORIGINAL: Kantti

Soviet railcap is more likely near 150k in start of 1941. It is quirked in couple of first turns, but then stabilizes (after initial losses) to around 135-140k....

Thank you! I have corrected the prior post. 1 Railyard factory = 500 railcap points.

I estimate between 140-150 railyard factories? for about 70K railcap. (Spreadsheet in progress.)

An armor corps = 3200~ railcap
A Guards division 2400~
Armor Brg 1500~

So about 21 armored units could be put on the rails .. 29 divisions ..

NOW back to turn 58 ..

I know you don't read my posts but maybe someone else can let you know that your ~estimate is not correct for an Armor Corps. Too low.