Banzais Don't Make Victories - Anachro (A) vs John 3rd (J) BTS 5.7

[GetAssista]

ORIGINAL: Anachro
Meanwhile, John inexplicably crosses the river again at Calcutta, we think seeking to attack and destroy unsuspecting Allied forces across the river. Perhaps he though the forces here were small.

Typical John, eh? Looks like his usual shock attack caught up in something unexpected. But wait, he has a hard road for him and your guys were marching there across the river for some time. So enough turns for him to recon the hex and see the numbers before he commits...
Basically, he just shaved off a month or two from the siege of Calcutta

[Anachro]

@JohnDillworth Please see the plane losses in the image below. He has lost 336 such planes to date. The power of Japanese industry...

@GetAssista Yes. [:)]



December 8, 1942

Today, I hit John's divisions that crosses the river from Calcutta with the entire might of the Indian air force (except for my 4E's which fail to launch due to weather or some such) and his forces take ~1000 casualties before any ground combat begins. As a result, my forces are able to successfully maul the Japanese 4th and 5th Divisions and send them back to Calcutta. John pays the price for his reckless crossing and now two of the divisions he had garrisoning the place are wrecked. With 56k troops still holed up in Calcutta, that is not a good thing for him.

Meanwhile, John seems to have his two divisions (19k men) at Dacca trying to make their way to Chittagong while he also brings up a division to Silchar in an attempt to protect it. He does so and I doubt I can take it with the current AV there, but with some additional pressure from me, it offers up opportunity to degrade another Japanese division with superior forces. In this case, the 16th Division.



Meanwhile, KB or part of it makes a reappearance in the South Pacific. I suspect he was attempting to do a raid, as the last few turns he has spotted various xAK convoys around Luganville and Efate. It will be interesting to see what he does now that his carriers' position is known. All Allied carriers excepting for two new Commonwealth CVL's at Capetown are currently at Auckland. Furthermore, I have ~230 fighters between Efate and Luganville (bringing up dive bombers soon). If he wants to fight in this vicinity, I'm more than happy to do so with the additional LBA protection, but my carriers need some refueling and also need to be in position, so we'll see what happens.

[Anachro]

December 9-10, 1942

Two things of note in the Indian theater of operations. First, John has split his forces at Dacca, in an attempt to save his divisions no doubt, with all of the various support units heading east (11 units east of Dacca) while John's divisions are at Dacca trying to go southwest towards Chittagong. This means that John's forces at Dacca are now devoid of any AA cover and John will need to rely on fighters in LRCAP; it also means that these divisions will suffer bombing raids like below. From my rough count, the Japanese divisions at Dacca suffered ~700-1k casualties.

Meanwhile, John's decision to expose his 16th division at Silchar isn't working out so well for him as he suffers inordinate casualties relative to my own forces. Look at the disparity in outcomes below and also observe that Japanese forces at Silchar are showing signs of fatigue, lack of supply, lack of experience, bad preparation, and an op mode malus. I should state that there is another 150 AV of Allied tanks one hex away that will arrive next turn.

[Anachro]

KB or part of it is still roving around in the South Pacific. He spotted an AV two turns ago, didn't spot it last turn as I moved it away south. However, I promptly forgot to disband it in port last turn and he has definitely spotted it again this turn. I'll probably lose the AV next turn, but this is useful information in terms of how John reacts to seemingly isolated units. Perhaps with similar such fruit left hanging, a trap can be laid. It should be noted that John brought one very exposed carrier task force down while the others moved north. This gets filed away into my brain for potential use later...maybe.

[Anachro]

Forgot to mention that the CL Danae got safely back to Pearl last turn, she will be in the shipyards for about a month.

[Anachro]

December 11, 1942

John certainly likes his deep raids. A pattern is emerging here that can be exploited. Might lose some xAKs or xAKLs this turn. In good news, my AV from last turn is safe and sound.

[Anachro]

December 12, 1942

Sadly, John sinks a few of my transports east of Brisbane. Luckily, it's only a few xAKLs and one xAK. My other xAKs/xAKLs are all unspotted for the following turn and it looks like John is retiring. The frustrating thing here is that both of these enemy task forces are within range of my 32 Beaufighters at Brisbane, but my Beaufighters do nothing despite being set to naval strike. Oh well.

[Anachro]

We get a form of recompense through a strike against Japanese ships carrying troops southwest of Ceylon. They were carrying these troops to Ceylon, so perhaps John is reinforcing the island. We also down a lot of bombers in India.

[Elessar2]

It's just...weird...how John uses his carriers. He seems to just like to have them gallivant here there and everywhere, vs. using them as part of a spearhead to, you know, actually accomplish something useful. I know he paid the price for this in his last game with Canoerebel, and it must be costing him a tonload of fuel to sail them hither and yon like this.

[Anachro]

I didnt show it, but these two carrier TFs are visible last turn, north of Luganville and heading on a path seemingly towards Lunga. The third carrier TF seems to have gone back up towards Tabiteuea.

[Anachro]

December 13, 1942

John really likes raiding. His destroyers stick around for another day and even get closer. I don't think I sank any of them, but still...this seems kind of reckless on his part.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Bundaberg at 102,155

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 16 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Allied aircraft
Beaufighter Ic x 14

Allied aircraft losses
Beaufighter Ic: 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
DD Matsukaze, Shell hits 6
DD Arashio, Shell hits 4
DD Hatakaze, Shell hits 10

Aircraft Attacking:
14 x Beaufighter Ic bombing from 100 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 lb SAP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Bundaberg at 102,155

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Allied aircraft
Beaufighter Ic x 14

Allied aircraft losses
Beaufighter Ic: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
DD Yunagi, Shell hits 4, Bomb hits 2, on fire
DD Inazuma, Shell hits 1, Bomb hits 1, on fire

Aircraft Attacking:
14 x Beaufighter Ic bombing from 100 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 lb SAP Bomb

[Anachro]

Just as a thought here. Considering the massive buildup of defenses and presence of the large majority of the IJN in the South and Central Pacific, I am considering refocusing the majority of my units for a push on Northern Australia and the DEI. While doing this, I will still make it look through ship movements and air attacks and even staged invasions that my targets are SoPac/CenPac/Aleutians. What say you? I currently have a number of divisions, artillery, engineers, etc in New Zealand that can be re positioned and re-focused for new targets. Currently, they are 100% prepped for Ndeni, Tulagi, Lunga, Milne Bay, etc.

My main thought it this: given the huge buildup in IJN forces and heavy industry needed to build his additional carriers in this mod, John's main constraint in-game is oil. I will soon threaten and cutoff oil production from Burma. An early focus on the oil production centers in the DEI coinciding with this could seriously hamper and destroy the Japanese economy going into '44/'45.

[Uncivil Engineer]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Just as a thought here. Considering the massive buildup of defenses and presence of the large majority of the IJN in the South and Central Pacific, I am considering refocusing the majority of my units for a push on Northern Australia and the DEI. While doing this, I will still make it look through ship movements and air attacks and even staged invasions that my targets are SoPac/CenPac/Aleutians. What say you? I currently have a number of divisions, artillery, engineers, etc in New Zealand that can be re positioned and re-focused for new targets. Currently, they are 100% prepped for Ndeni, Tulagi, Lunga, Milne Bay, etc.

My main thought it this: given the huge buildup in IJN forces and heavy industry needed to build his additional carriers in this mod, John's main constraint in-game is oil. I will soon threaten and cutoff oil production from Burma. An early focus on the oil production centers in the DEI coinciding with this could seriously hamper and destroy the Japanese economy going into '44/'45.

Any idea how many and what strength have been left behind on Sumatra? I suspect very little. Hasn't it all been sent to India? You might run some carriers along the west coasts of Sumatra and Java doing recon (secondary to naval attack just in case) to see what he's got. You threaten Palembang and he's got to react. Of course, I don't know were your CVs are, but an idea. BTW, oil is ALWAYS Japan's main constraint.

[Anachro]

Oil is always their main constraint, but in this game the effects of losing or hampering his oil supply is a lot more dire and immediate.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Just as a thought here. Considering the massive buildup of defenses and presence of the large majority of the IJN in the South and Central Pacific, I am considering refocusing the majority of my units for a push on Northern Australia and the DEI. While doing this, I will still make it look through ship movements and air attacks and even staged invasions that my targets are SoPac/CenPac/Aleutians. What say you? I currently have a number of divisions, artillery, engineers, etc in New Zealand that can be re positioned and re-focused for new targets. Currently, they are 100% prepped for Ndeni, Tulagi, Lunga, Milne Bay, etc.

My main thought it this: given the huge buildup in IJN forces and heavy industry needed to build his additional carriers in this mod, John's main constraint in-game is oil. I will soon threaten and cutoff oil production from Burma. An early focus on the oil production centers in the DEI coinciding with this could seriously hamper and destroy the Japanese economy going into '44/'45.

You should have the wherewithal now to set two main axes of attack and have the shipping and logistics to support them. The only thing you would need to wait on is switching the USN from theatre to theatre. So having a bunch of units prepping for SWPAC and CENTPAC while also having units set to go from Australia through the DEI is good stuff. Your trigger gets pulled for either vector when you know where KB is located.

But if this is PDU ON and Japan's navy is still strong, you will not be able to sustain deep thrusts until late 1943 or a decisive carrier battle very much in your favour. Canoerebel did it but it was dicey until John III left his CVE fleet dangling too far from KB while not knowing where the Allied CVs were. After that loss for Japan, the Allied fleet could be pretty sure of handling whatever Japan threw at it which made resupply and reinforcement of the deep incursion possible.

[JohnDillworth]

You idea has merit and it would certainly keep the KB tied down if that is considered a positive thing. Choose your foothold carefully as you will need a few, large, interlocking bases (you engineers are the stars here). One thing that certainly will happen is you will get into an aircraft war of attrition. Fact of the matter is Japan can outproduce you in army fighters for the duration of the war so your army pools may get thin. John gets to pick if wants to have a war of attrition and you will have to respond to his choice

[Anachro]

December 14, 1942

Silchar falls today and with it, the 16th IJA ID, 2nd Tank Regiment, and 1st Para Assault division all take considerable attrition over the last few days. Tezpur will fall tomorrow with the rest of my forces crossing the river today to it. This will open up the rail (and more importantly bring supplies) to Comilla. At Comilla, a Japanese division crosses the river but is now due to be surrounded by forces already on the way to that hex while others move south to cut it off. I suspect this division will either be destroyed or suffer great attrition. John leaves behind 12 units at Dacca and in the hex east of it. These forces will be attacked next turn and Dacca should be taken a few turns after.

John's comments for the day. It was a "much calmer day today." I am sending in a small 8 AV unit to Calcutta to see what's there. Airfield damage in Calcutta is ~60 and not going down so he's can't be building more forts.

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
Fact of the matter is Japan can outproduce you in army fighters for the duration of the war so your army pools may get thin. John gets to pick if wants to have a war of attrition and you will have to respond to his choice

I can already feel the attrition in the air war in India. John has endless Zeroes and Tojos; I am continually running on empty in my fighter pools for British and American fighters. One totally unrelated aspect of air attrition I wasn't expecting was my pools for PBY Catalina's are non-existent. I take so much damage from John's carriers when I spot them that most of my PBY's are running at 40-50% efficiency and my production rate is 8-9 a month.

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

You should have the wherewithal now to set two main axes of attack and have the shipping and logistics to support them. The only thing you would need to wait on is switching the USN from theatre to theatre. So having a bunch of units prepping for SWPAC and CENTPAC while also having units set to go from Australia through the DEI is good stuff. Your trigger gets pulled for either vector when you know where KB is located.

But if this is PDU ON and Japan's navy is still strong, you will not be able to sustain deep thrusts until late 1943 or a decisive carrier battle very much in your favour. Canoerebel did it but it was dicey until John III left his CVE fleet dangling too far from KB while not knowing where the Allied CVs were. After that loss for Japan, the Allied fleet could be pretty sure of handling whatever Japan threw at it which made resupply and reinforcement of the deep incursion possible.

Taking Ceylon and surrounding islands will really open up the eastern axis of attack. The Bay of Bengal will not longer be a Japanese lake.

[CaptBeefheart]

You never have enough Cats, even though it looks like you get an extra 2 ea./month in this mod (the replacement rate). Luckily, PV-1s and PB4Ys can take up some of the slack when they come online, as well as the PBM.

I would certainly keep a strong focus on the DEI to stop the flow of oil. But, as BBFanboy says, it does make sense to do credible invasions in SoPac and/or CenPac to keep him on his toes.

Cheers,
CB