The Next War 1979 Expanded ( Beta 1.0 ) Damon v. larry

[Hellen_slith]

Some thoughts on our S&T and "operations" so far:

I was very surprised that Larry went into Finmark, probably as much surprised as he must have been when I abandoned Hamburg. I kind of expected Austria to collapse, so I was somewhat prepared w/
the Italians in that event.

On turn 3, I made the mistake of blowing some bridges in the Tyrol out of panic and poor planning, but luckily I found still one intact rail line avai. through there, even after those mistakes. I am still a bit worried about Munich ... I can't seem to find enough guys for my liking to really secure that area.

I was also very very lucky that Larry overlooked the weaknesses along the Karl Marx Stadt corridor. That really was a game changer w/ the EG revolt and getting the American and Brit SF units through there and deep into the WP backfield w/ airmobile support

Now we shall see if the incitement for Polish insurrection at Gorlitz succeeds. If so, then it will be like rolling a hard eight three times in a row on the Craps table while betting two fourts on the Horn. That pays BIG.

With any luck (a 50 50 chance), I will at least get some shock value out of that desperation move into Gorlitz. Those moves were suicide missions, so I'll have to post more details about the units that helped make them happen.

I am still curious about those second- and third-echelon WP forces Larry has up his sleeve. I know they are lurking back there somewhere, no doubt bloodthirsty for revenge at this point. But, I also mave breeched both tips of the Fulda Gap now (Dutch / BOAR to the north, and USAEUR moving to secure the southern tip.)

Great game! We are definitely into the middle game now. Lots of play left.

D

[cathar1244]

I note the happy establishment of the Bornholm Socialist Republic. [;)]

Cheers

[Hellen_slith]

Here is the map as of the end of NATO turn 7:

[cathar1244]

Thinking about the E European revolts. Maybe for a future version of the scenario: Don't disband the armies of the countries that revolt. Rather, have them change their objective tracks such that their units retreat to major cities in their own countries (putting down the revolt). Do the same to a few Soviet divisions as well.

Cheers

[larryfulkerson]

Damon has put the pedal to the medal and his entire force was in motion in the playback. He's attacking mostly in the middle of the map. There's about a division-sized NATO contingent of helicopter-borne troops that made their way into my backfield and were chasing some of my units and busting bridges. My supply flow has been thwarted. I'm in a bad way all of a sudden. Damon has made some really great moves this entire game. I'm not sure what I'll be able to salvage from this.

[Hellen_slith]

Well, I have been very lucky what with the multiple shock penalties for the incitements to riot, but there are only a few cities left that might trigger any more shock ... and they are too far away from me at this point to think about trying another trick like that LoL I think they are Franfurt on der Oder (sp?) and Cottbus (sp?) and one other, I think that is left. Without shock penalty, your troops are still going to be a lot stronger, and I see several Corps sized reinforcements on the road from Moscow.

Overall, I think I've only held the line, and haven't done a lot of damage to your tanks and infantry divisions, except for that one Polish division I think I got. I expect the initiative might shift back to WP in the next few turns. Going to be an interesting end game. I still need probably 400 or 500 more points to be able to think about a marginal victory.

[Hellen_slith]

ORIGINAL: cathar1244

Thinking about the E European revolts. Maybe for a future version of the scenario: Don't disband the armies of the countries that revolt. Rather, have them change their objective tracks such that their units retreat to major cities in their own countries (putting down the revolt). Do the same to a few Soviet divisions as well.

Cheers

I think there are at least eight or nine separate possible insurrection events programmed for WP (if NATO lands on certain hexes), and each of those must have at least one additional event associated w/ it (I forget exactly, and I don't have the briefing ... 16 or more events handling that part of the game) ... so off the top of my head you're looking at a lot of redesign of the original Next War to do that.

Plus, if you construct that sort bridgework for the WP you've got to do it for the NATO, too.... whatever might likewise need to be done to the similar events that are programmed for French / Dutch / Italian / Danes etc.

What's good for the goose should be good for the gander, that is, to keep things balanced b/w NATO and WP.

Also, if that were the case, I would definitely foresee that the number of turns would have to be expanded.

Also, I don't recall ever seeing an AAR for the old ACOW version of this scene. It would be interesting to see how those went. I don't recall seeing many AARs back then of any scenes. Are they still around? I played some Next War scenes on theblitz ladder back a long time ago, but I don't remember any AARs. Ok, well, that is an interesting idea, I would like to see that but with a lot more moves than 17 combat turns as the game is now.

[Hellen_slith]

ORIGINAL: mussey

allowing players to choose 'Sudden War' or a selection of beginning game turns with 'Tension', Bob Cross has created a variety of what-if options. My aim in Expanded was to open up some grand strategy so that both forces could take advantage of their strengths, and deployment options of reinforcements. The expansion to include Norway and surround seas is one example.

Yes, I have been toying w/ the Tension aspect. Most folks want to get right to it so I think Sudden War is probably the most popular...but the Tension makes it into a totally different game.

Endless possibilities. My "wish list" is that the scene can be played indefinitely, until a "victory" of sorts occurs ... at the option of the players, I think I posted about that.

I forget. Anyway, great scene!!

The Next War (original and Expanded) : TOAWIV :: Mozart : Music

I just love this scene.

[larryfulkerson]

I've dismissed the playback and opening dialogs and here's the T8 front lines before I have moved anybody. Damon has cut a path through my lines if you include the troops he has in my backfield. The supply flow collapsed so I have to try to pull out and move everybody to the east. If Damon is anything like me he's got a lot of INT missions assigned. That would help hamper my movements. The zone of control of the NATO units is like some kind of tractor beam in that I can't pull back without triggering some kind of withdrawl attack and sometimes the unit is trapped in it's own hex without moving and the MP's are zeroed out as well. That makes it really difficult to back up your front lines. I can't make any progress in Norway and it looks like Damon is going to eject my units. I saw a lot of NATO aircraft transition from England to the continent. About 1/3 to 1/2 of my units are in reorg and can't be moved at all. Including a lot of the aircraft. Damon has a small shock advantage and he's making full use of it. We're into July and the weather is partly cloudy and warm tending to warmer with a chance of darkness tonight. Several of the WP minors have revolted and that's troubling. If there ever was a time to pull back and reorganize I think this might be it.

[Hellen_slith]

ORIGINAL: mussey

... let me know if you have any questions.

In spirit of original rule book, my "yes/no" Question, Sir, now is, "Do the 'incitement to riot' shock penalties against WP 'stack'?" That is to say, my worthy opponent, Comrade Larry, noted this last turn a 75% shock on WP ... I think that resulted in "disorg" status for 75% of his units.

The math seems to work: Grolitz shock (25%) plus Praha shock (25%) plus leftover EG shock (25%) equals 75% shock, right? Just curious!
H

[Hellen_slith]

ORIGINAL: larryfulkerson

About 1/3 to 1/2 of my units are in reorg and can't be moved at all. Including a lot of the aircraft. Damon has a small shock advantage and he's making full use of it.

Not sure, Larry, but by my calculation, I think the EG shock wore off, but there is either one more 25% shock for Gorlitz, plus (not sure) a possible continuing shock for Praha.

That last turn, I switched some units in and out of Praha, wasn't sure if that would count as "re-occupation" and another dice roll for incitement, but I tried it anyway. If it worked, that would leave a 50% shock still for this turn for you, man, I must be hot on the dice lately.

Ok, well, Friend Comrade, this will be a most interesting game!
H

[cathar1244]

Plus, if you construct that sort bridgework for the WP you've got to do it for the NATO, too.... whatever might likewise need to be done to the similar events that are programmed for French / Dutch / Italian / Danes etc.

What's good for the goose should be good for the gander, that is, to keep things balanced b/w NATO and WP.

D, reconsidering this. Two separate types of action here. Pact -- revolts; they would not have had the option of standing down with the Soviets in charge. NATO -- surrender forced by mil ops (total withdrawal of that national army), or -- collapse of political will (units back to home country). Pact country revolt -- units back to home country.

The "back to home country" would be awkward with an objective track change. Probably best to remove the units from the game, and have a battlegroup / cadre version of the divisions (with downgraded proficiency) reappear a couple of turns of later in home cities. Units that appear as such reinforcements should be in garrison mode. If an enemy unit already occupies a city designated as the appearance hex, then the reinforcement unit doesn't appear.

Cheers

[mussey]

I think there are at least eight or nine separate possible insurrection events programmed for WP (if NATO lands on certain hexes), and each of those must have at least one additional event associated w/ it (

There were no additional Events added for the Warsaw Pact Revolts, just the originals:
- EG: Dresden, E. Berlin, Karl-Marx-Stadt, Liepzig
- Czech.: Prague, Pilsen
- Poland: Cottbus, Gorlitz, Frankfurt ad Oder, Sczcecin

The addition of the East German Kampfgruppen der Arbeiterklasse (KdA) militia in my next release should greatly benefit the WP player, and help prevent some of this NATO mischief...

(The NATO nations do not have revolt Events, but many do have surrender events. For example if WP occupies Amsterdam there is 60% chance of surrender. If WP comes within 7 hexes of The Hague there is a 20%. There are others...)

Now interestingly, we need to think through a plausible course of action IF a WP nation revolts through NATO action. Would those formations disband, retreat, freeze into static, defect? Or maybe just a proportion of these formations? This is truly a What-if with little historical perspective to go on. Cathar may have a solution: forced retreat back home, but I'm not sure how to do this. Is there an Event that forces a formation into AI mode? Let me know what you think!

[mussey]

Another thought on this. I think if a WP country successfully revolts and that state fails, for all extent and purposes the game is over - the Soviets have not only failed to achieve their goals for driving NATO members to quit the alliance, but also lost a portion of their own Pact members. Especially if they were East Germany or Poland which were at the heart of the WP. As I look back on this when younger and playing the original board game this was how I settled it. I felt that continuing the game any further was pointless, unless if not already initiated, nuclear weapons were used which I think is what the Soviets would have done...

(I rarely played with nuclear or chemical weapons because it was not fun, but more importantly at least for me personally, was unfathomable and repugnant).

Anyway, just my own opinion.

[mussey]

Another another thought. Instead of forces disbanding, why not have a revolt initiate a Guerrilla event. let the Soviet player decide how he would deal with that. Of course the Guerrillas would be in every WP country, but that's plausibly explained by having a revolt spreading.

[Hellen_slith]

Here is the map at the end of NATO turn 8:

[StuccoFresco]

I think the best way to deal with the revolts is a mixed one: part of the country's units disappear forever, part disappear and re-appear a couple turns later in the country's cities. Maybe make them reappear only if the WP player manages to re-take some of the VP that are occupied by the rebels.

Making all of them disappear forever on the spot it's a bit too harsh on the Soviet player, probably.

[Hellen_slith]

ORIGINAL: StuccoFresco

I think the best way to deal with the revolts is a mixed one: part of the country's units disappear forever, part disappear and re-appear a couple turns later in the country's cities. Maybe make them reappear only if the WP player manages to re-take some of the VP that are occupied by the rebels.

The revolts are easily preventable. WP Player must defend his key cities (easily done, as there are only about 10, and WP has more than enough units to defend them while still bringing an onslaught to the front, especially now that units from Moscow and the new rear areas are available.)

NATO has the same onus: NATO player cannot move all of his troops to the front lest WP takes BRHDs and REFORGER hexes. In fact, the NATO player has a much harder job, in that there are many more key hexes that, if taken, will sink any hope of NATO victory or even a draw.

The game has always played this way. Defending rear areas (both NATO and WP) is an essential strategic part of The Next War. WP moves his troops away from those cities at his own peril, just as if NATO leaves BRHD and REFORGER hexes abandoned at his peril.

[larryfulkerson]

I've been moving units and this is the 6th combat round of turn nine and I've cleared out the backfield finally and some of the rail has been repaired but there's still a hex with broken rail in it at random places in the backfield so the supply flow is still weak. I've been targeting his SSM's with my SSM's and I've killed quite a few during this game. I like to do airfield strikes too. I'm thinking that I might have air superiority but I'm not sure because there are still NATO aircraft flying missions. The idea is to ground all of them, failing that I need to shoot them down, but that's much harder. The losses have been horrific.

[Hellen_slith]

As a result of occupation of Frankfurt o.d. Oder, Polish units should have been withdrawn (as per the news item), but they remain. Looks like a glitch somewhat like when Praha goes, so go the Hungarians. Not sure how we'll handle it in our game; I'm sure we'll figure something out: