The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]July 12, 1945[/font]

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Right on cue the Allies launch a big strike at Fukuoka. This base ha had a lot of training groups with only limited CAP and a lot of nearby bleeding CAP. It hasn't been attacked yet. Corsairs did unusually well sweeping, and the bombers did their job, but flak took a toll and hits weren't as extreme as I would have imagined.

I've reworked the defence over here for tomorrow. There is a lot to hit nearby so more CAP is on bleed, which I don't really like but have to use now.

Nothing new elsewhere. The DS moves only a few hexes to the South and slightly East.
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR July 12, 1945
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Morning Air attack on Fukuoka , at 103,57

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 15 NM, estimated altitude 45,300 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1 Rex x 24
N1K5-J George x 20
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 10
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 6
Ki-84b Frank x 20

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 36

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1 Rex: 3 destroyed
N1K5-J George: 4 destroyed
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 1 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 5 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 2 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
2 x F4U-1D Corsair sweeping at 39300 feet

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Morning Air attack on Fukuoka , at 103,57

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 38 NM, estimated altitude 42,300 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1 Rex x 12
N1K5-J George x 7
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 4
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 4
Ki-84b Frank x 9

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 36

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1 Rex: 5 destroyed
N1K5-J George: 2 destroyed
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 2 destroyed
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 2 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
22 x F4U-1D Corsair sweeping at 39300 feet

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Morning Air attack on Fukuoka , at 103,57

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 10
A-26B Invader x 6
B-24J Liberator x 13
B-29-25 Superfort x 35
P-38L Lightning x 18
P-47N Thunderbolt x 22
P-51D Mustang x 48
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 23

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1 Rex: 1 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.VI: 4 damaged
A-26B Invader: 3 damaged
A-26B Invader: 1 destroyed by flak
B-24J Liberator: 5 damaged
B-29-25 Superfort: 18 damaged
PBJ-1D Mitchell: 14 damaged

Resources hits 11
Ki-84r Frank factory hits 6
Armament Assembly hits 2
Runway hits 2

Aircraft Attacking:
11 x PBJ-1D Mitchell bombing from 12000 feet *
City Attack: 3 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on Fukuoka , at 103,57

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 71 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 8
B-29-25 Superfort x 26
P-47N Thunderbolt x 18
P-51D Mustang x 2
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-45 KAId Nick: 2 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 1 damaged
B-29-25 Superfort: 13 damaged
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 5 damaged

Resources hits 11
Ki-84r Frank factory hits 2
Airbase hits 4
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 17

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x PB4Y-1 Liberator bombing from 12000 feet
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on Fukuoka , at 103,57

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 77 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 7
Liberator GR.VI x 11
B-29-25 Superfort x 9

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.VI: 5 damaged
Liberator GR.VI: 9 damaged
Liberator GR.VI: 1 destroyed by flak
B-29-25 Superfort: 6 damaged
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak

Resources hits 7

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x Liberator B.VI bombing from 12000 feet
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on Fukuoka , at 103,57

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 31 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 14

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 5 damaged
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak

Aircraft Attacking:
14 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 12000 feet
City Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on Fukuoka , at 103,57

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 37 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Allied aircraft
A-26B Invader x 12

Allied aircraft losses
A-26B Invader: 4 damaged
A-26B Invader: 2 destroyed by flak


Aircraft Attacking:
10 x A-26B Invader bombing from 12000 feet *
City Attack: 4 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on Fukuoka , at 103,57

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 39 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Allied aircraft
A-26B Invader x 17

Allied aircraft losses
A-26B Invader: 2 damaged
A-26B Invader: 1 destroyed by flak

Resources hits 3

Aircraft Attacking:
16 x A-26B Invader bombing from 12000 feet *
City Attack: 4 x 500 lb GP Bomb




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[obvert]

Fukuoka has some armament factories damaged, almost 200 resource factories damaged, and a Frank factory wiped out.

[Lowpe]

Can the Allies invade north and east of Shanghai but before Korea? If the Allies don't push north and cut the northern Chinese rail line, then I suspect something along those lines and the attack was merely to set up air bases to punish Honshu.

Invasion of Japanese Islands?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Can the Allies invade north and east of Shanghai but before Korea? If the Allies don't push north and cut the northern Chinese rail line, then I suspect something along those lines and the attack was merely to set up air bases to punish Honshu.

Invasion of Japanese Islands?

If the airbases in China are for punishing the Home Islands, why the insistent milk runs to Hangchow and Shanghai with sweeps to central Chinese bases? It seems like something else is going on, and I wonder if the real intent is to ensure a vector for getting to Chungking. He knows there is lot of x3 territory, and the army that stopped near Chusien didn't even attempt an attack against my blockade in x3. Now they've turned. So maybe he's thinking of transferring to Southern China and aiming up from there?

He's also been moving troops away from the Central Chinese vector and toward Nanking and the Northern road/rail. He could easily take any of the bases between Shanghai and Tsientin/Peiping. Some of this surely is to coordinate with the Soviets when they activate too.

Or, he may be thinking of grabbing some close in islands off of Japan in prep for invading Kyushu. That would be something hard to deal with for sure, and with the DS strength at this point even massed LBA nd the KB combined would have trouble breaking through at close range.

The position of the DS could show he's finally coming down to close the oceans to transport from the SRA. It's just going very slowly if that's his intent. Naha and Nago on Okinawa aren't as built up as they once were after transferring some troops to the Shanghai/Hangchow area, so those could be a target, but he already has bases to fly sweeps that are equally close.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]July 13, 1945[/font]

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Not much to report. A quiet turn with Singers bombing going forward but not much in the North.

Even on a slow day the Allies lose 15-20 planes to flak, which is nice. The DS hasn't appreciably moved, but it seems like the troops in China have either been shipped out or changed location quickly. Nanking seems well reduced, by like 100k! [X(]

I'll send full recon to all nearby bases tomorrow.
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR July 13, 1945
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Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 78 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-25D Mitchell x 4
Liberator B.VI x 3
Wellington GR.XIII x 3
A-20G Havoc x 9
B-24J Liberator x 22
B-25J11 Mitchell x 10

Allied aircraft losses
B-25D Mitchell: 3 damaged
Wellington GR.XIII: 2 damaged
A-20G Havoc: 2 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 7 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak
B-25J11 Mitchell: 3 damaged

Airbase hits 7
Runway hits 18

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B-25D Mitchell bombing from 8000 feet
Airfield Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 56 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 19 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 7
B-24J Liberator x 8
B-25J1 Mitchell x 6
B-25J11 Mitchell x 3

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.VI: 4 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 2 damaged
B-25J1 Mitchell: 3 damaged
B-25J11 Mitchell: 1 damaged
B-25J11 Mitchell: 1 destroyed by flak

Airbase hits 2
Runway hits 13

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x Liberator B.VI bombing from 8000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Ground combat at Johore Bahru (50,83)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 118135 troops, 1798 guns, 1556 vehicles, Assault Value = 3155

Defending force 59966 troops, 487 guns, 286 vehicles, Assault Value = 1591

Japanese ground losses:
72 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
22 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Assaulting units:
20th Indian Division
236th Combat Engineer Regiment
45th Indian Brigade
17th Motorised Division
11th (East African) Division
81st (West African) Division
Gardner's Horse Regiment
16th Chindit Brigade
25th Indian Division
2nd British Division
475th USA Regiment
268th Motorised Brigade
8th Indian Division
88th Medium Regiment
12th Indian Heavy AA Regiment
1st Indian Medium Regiment
Southeast Asia
2nd Indian Medium Regiment
XXXIV Indian Corps
2nd HK&S Heavy AA Regiment
2/13th Field Regiment
6th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
3rd West African AA Regiment
23rd Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
2/9th Field Regiment
20th Indian Heavy AA Regiment
III Indian Corps
181st Field Artillery Regiment
134th (East Ang) Regiment
55th Heavy Regiment
168th Field Artillery Regiment
56th Heavy AA Regiment
14th Army
3rd (Special Force) Division

Defending units:
44th Naval Guard Unit
29th Ind.Mixed Brigade
21st Ind.Mixed Brigade
49th Tank Battalion
2nd South Seas Det.
26th Tank Regiment
Kure 3rd SNLF
2nd INA Gandhi Regiment
4th INA Nehru Regiment
65th Brigade
Sasebo 8th SNLF
Yokosuka 4th SNLF /2
4th Raiding Regiment
5th INA Regiment
4th Tank Regiment
27th Ind.Mixed Brigade
2nd Amphibious Brigade
4th Ind.Mixed Regiment
120th Div /2
1st RF Gun Battalion
89th JAAF AF Bn
3rd Mortar Battalion
80th JAAF AF Bn
17th JAAF AF Bn
91st JAAF AF Bn
201st JAAF AF Bn
28th JAAF AF Bn
105th JAAF AF Bn
94th JAAF AF Bn
23rd JAAF AF Bn /1

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Still shifting around off of China.

[Lowpe]

Do you have a heavy volume of messages at Nanking? My guess is they loaded on ships, will meet up with ds and take Japanese Islands for closes fighter bases -- that is my number one guess. Of course if you have left holes in Korea that might be attractive.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Do you have a heavy volume of messages at Nanking? My guess is they loaded on ships, will meet up with ds and take Japanese Islands for closes fighter bases -- that is my number one guess. Of course if you have left holes in Korea that might be attractive.

No holes in Korea. At all. The entire coastline is occupied including all non-base hexes. Interestingly, in some kind of bug representing itself, some of those units almost immediately had forts 6-7. Small units, so it's wouldn't likely matter much, but interesting.

My first guess is also islands somewhere South of Japan. I'll have to check for messages. I've not been reading my SIGINT. [:-]

[Lowpe]

Look at Chinchow...it is a level 1 port, open ground, cuts the rail between manchuko/korea and China. 15 hexes from Nanking. Synergy with Soviet activation.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Do you have a heavy volume of messages at Nanking? My guess is they loaded on ships, will meet up with ds and take Japanese Islands for closes fighter bases -- that is my number one guess. Of course if you have left holes in Korea that might be attractive.

No holes in Korea. At all. The entire coastline is occupied including all non-base hexes. Interestingly, in some kind of bug representing itself, some of those units almost immediately had forts 6-7. Small units, so it's wouldn't likely matter much, but interesting.

My first guess is also islands somewhere South of Japan. I'll have to check for messages. I've not been reading my SIGINT. [:-]

I'd be looking at any high value VP bases, particularly if they are not strongly garrisoned.

Whether your opponent is concerned about the 31 August 1945 deadline or isn't, he still ultimately needs to acquire VPs. Normally, considering the overall position, one would expect an Allied player to garner those VPs from strategic bombing but as you have detailed his somewhat desultory approach to strategic bombing, obtaining fresh airfields in range of the Home Islands wouldn't be consistent. Consistent would be going after high value land bases utilising his naval mobility.

Alfred

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Do you have a heavy volume of messages at Nanking? My guess is they loaded on ships, will meet up with ds and take Japanese Islands for closes fighter bases -- that is my number one guess. Of course if you have left holes in Korea that might be attractive.

No holes in Korea. At all. The entire coastline is occupied including all non-base hexes. Interestingly, in some kind of bug representing itself, some of those units almost immediately had forts 6-7. Small units, so it's wouldn't likely matter much, but interesting.

My first guess is also islands somewhere South of Japan. I'll have to check for messages. I've not been reading my SIGINT. [:-]

I'd be looking at any high value VP bases, particularly if they are not strongly garrisoned.

Whether your opponent is concerned about the 31 August 1945 deadline or isn't, he still ultimately needs to acquire VPs. Normally, considering the overall position, one would expect an Allied player to garner those VPs from strategic bombing but as you have detailed his somewhat desultory approach to strategic bombing, obtaining fresh airfields in range of the Home Islands wouldn't be consistent. Consistent would be going after high value land bases utilising his naval mobility.

Alfred

I've been expecting an invasion in Luzon as part of this big move to China, but it didn't come. I'm not sure he's reconned enough to know how little is there. [;)]

The high value targets on Hokkaido are some of the best available without having to invade anything, but he's drawn down forces there.

He did try to para-drop on Formosa so maybe that is also on the menu, but he's not prepped.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: obvert



No holes in Korea. At all. The entire coastline is occupied including all non-base hexes. Interestingly, in some kind of bug representing itself, some of those units almost immediately had forts 6-7. Small units, so it's wouldn't likely matter much, but interesting.

My first guess is also islands somewhere South of Japan. I'll have to check for messages. I've not been reading my SIGINT. [:-]

I'd be looking at any high value VP bases, particularly if they are not strongly garrisoned.

Whether your opponent is concerned about the 31 August 1945 deadline or isn't, he still ultimately needs to acquire VPs. Normally, considering the overall position, one would expect an Allied player to garner those VPs from strategic bombing but as you have detailed his somewhat desultory approach to strategic bombing, obtaining fresh airfields in range of the Home Islands wouldn't be consistent. Consistent would be going after high value land bases utilising his naval mobility.

Alfred

I've been expecting an invasion in Luzon as part of this big move to China, but it didn't come. I'm not sure he's reconned enough to know how little is there. [;)]

The high value targets on Hokkaido are some of the best available without having to invade anything, but he's drawn down forces there.

He did try to para-drop on Formosa so maybe that is also on the menu, but he's not prepped.

Your opponent is an opportunistic player. He is never fully prepped for an invasion. notwithstanding public protestations to the contrary. Nor will you get much advance warning via Allied overhead recon flights, probably as little as one turn only.

Hokkaido - drawing down his forces there removes it from being high on the list of targets. To now come back with forces released from China would represent a huge waste of time completely unjustified by the results obtained during the detour.

Formosa - not being fully prepped would not factor into his thinking. That he paradropped there confirms his opportunistic style and that Formosa is either a main target in its own right or alternatively is seen as protecting his flank for another operation. Logically that operation would be Luzon. He doesn't need Formosa to cover his flan if he is going for Okinawa as his current China lodgement would suffice for that flank protection. If Formosa is a target in its own right, then expect the rest of the China coastline from Shanghai down to Vietnam to be attacked by amphibious landings rather than overland movement. Unlike Korea, you don't have sufficient forces to garrison every non base hex here on the coastline.

Luzon - plenty of VPs here to be garnered. He doesn't need recon here but can deduce that Japanese airpower will be very weak here. Plus having encountered so much IJA strength in China, he knows it isn't already on Luzon nor can it be transferred there from China . With what he already has and the airpower of the American Death Star and if needed the British carrier force, he can safely land on Luzon without fear of encountering strong land defences. Without Japanese airpower to protect them, Japanese land forces (and their supply) on Luzon will not hold up. All that your opponent needs is to stand off Luzon for a single day his invasion forces and recon all the beaches for a single turn to find the lightly defended beaches and invade there, all without caring about his own prep levels.

Borneo and Mindanao - these could be handled by the British carrier forces covering the amphibious operations. Again neither much advanced prep nor recon would be needed for pulling the trigger. Similarly for Java.

Alfred

[Chickenboy]

I would suspect that there's a balance between ease of invasion / expected resistance and benefit to the overall Allied war effort. Just because he *can* invade some place 'cheaply' doesn't mean it's the best fit for the strategic flow for the balance of the war. It doesn't mean he won't do it, but it may not be the most efficient use of his forces for the endgame.

Java / Sumatra: Opportunistic landings there may encounter reduced (relative to entrenched positions in China) Japanese capabilities and result in capture of oil and refinery centers.

But how much oil / fuel is Japan still garnering from its capture of Java? It is my understanding that oil and fuel flow back to mainland Japan have been summarily reduced to a trickle in the last 6 months. Obvert: is this correct? If so, and you have learned to live without Java's oil/fuel, would that really be a hammer blow to the Japanese economy?

Liberation of Java in August 1945 is a different strategic impact than the liberation of Java in 1943 or 1944. Furthermore, it splits the Allied main effort from focally investing the Japanese Home Islands. An invasion of Java would have limited impact on oil / fuel collection from Borneo as well. My opinion is that he would be frittering away time better spent elsewhere nearer the home islands with little strategic impact to the Japanese war effort.

Luzon / Formosa: Nearer to the Japanese home islands and better able to support other Allied efforts in the area. Either location should be a death knell to any importation of residual fuel/oil/resources from the SRA, regardless of initial source. Only a handful of bases on the Chinese coast should be necessary to complete the shipping stricture if Luzon was the main event.

But how many VPs (other than the Japanese LCUs that would be destroyed) would he hope to garner from a major expedition to Luzon? 5,000? If this 'worth' one-two months of protracted fighting? Will there be a benefit to oil/fuel shipment interdiction at this stage of the war? Again, Obvert, how much oil/fuel are you getting through the Luzon strait? While a Luzon focus may be easier than Formosa for the Allies, it also provides less overlapping support to coastal Chinese operations than a Formosa investment.

The low hanging fruit here for the Allies was / is Hokkaido. I am unclear on the rationale for drawing down forces in the North Japanese home islands. Unless the Allies decided that this was 'too expensive' in terms of time / men / materiale for limited gains. I think your opponent probably thought that a lodgement on Hokkaido would clear the way to an decisive strategic bombing campaign of Honshu and Kyushu. Your atypically stiff air defenses disabused him of that notion over the last 10 months of fighting.

I'll go further yet: the draw down of Allied forces in Hokkaido and primary vector shift to Luzon / Formosa may very well mean that he's 'giving up' on the strategic air war as a means to victory. No, not completely, but if he's redoubled his efforts on the ground war VP game, that may be evidence that he is demoting the strategic bombing campaign relatively. That and the very real possibility that he may be running light on assets (B17/24/29) with which to prosecute the strategic bombing campaign.

Would this then be welcomed by a Japan player hoping to further run off the clock and trade parsimonious Allied VP gains for more time? There's an argument to be made that such a diversion could be a welcome respite.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I would suspect that there's a balance between ease of invasion / expected resistance and benefit to the overall Allied war effort. Just because he *can* invade some place 'cheaply' doesn't mean it's the best fit for the strategic flow for the balance of the war. It doesn't mean he won't do it, but it may not be the most efficient use of his forces for the endgame.

Java / Sumatra: Opportunistic landings there may encounter reduced (relative to entrenched positions in China) Japanese capabilities and result in capture of oil and refinery centers.

But how much oil / fuel is Japan still garnering from its capture of Java? It is my understanding that oil and fuel flow back to mainland Japan have been summarily reduced to a trickle in the last 6 months. Obvert: is this correct? If so, and you have learned to live without Java's oil/fuel, would that really be a hammer blow to the Japanese economy?

There is about 250AV on all of Java. [X(] [;)]

This is the main hub of resource/fuel/oil transit to the Home Islands. There are currently 700k resources still at Soerabaja, about 120k fuel and 50k oil on Java. All TFs from Palembang now transit the coast to Batavia, unload and return. TFs from Tokyo pass along the Marianas and Babeldaob, then to Soerabaja. Two are always loading there. I am sending 150k resources and 20k oil every two days, plus about 50-80k fuel every 3-4 four days. It has ALL been making it to Tokyo other than the occasional loss to sub activity.

There is still just below 5,000,000 fuel owned by Japan and about 300k oil. As much as possible is in Japan, but Manila and Babeldaob are also hubs for the smaller production centres. There are a lot of smaller resource centres with 500-700k I hope to access, but not sure I'll have time.

Liberation of Java in August 1945 is a different strategic impact than the liberation of Java in 1943 or 1944. Furthermore, it splits the Allied main effort from focally investing the Japanese Home Islands. An invasion of Java would have limited impact on oil / fuel collection from Borneo as well. My opinion is that he would be frittering away time better spent elsewhere nearer the home islands with little strategic impact to the Japanese war effort.

Luzon / Formosa: Nearer to the Japanese home islands and better able to support other Allied efforts in the area. Either location should be a death knell to any importation of residual fuel/oil/resources from the SRA, regardless of initial source. Only a handful of bases on the Chinese coast should be necessary to complete the shipping stricture if Luzon was the main event.

Taking lower Luzon, Mindanao and the Celebes would completely shut down transit to the HI from the SRA. It would take a few regiments and a few weeks to do this. He'd maybe have to either bring the DS or split it up, and I don't think he likes to split it up! [;)]

But how many VPs (other than the Japanese LCUs that would be destroyed) would he hope to garner from a major expedition to Luzon? 5,000? If this 'worth' one-two months of protracted fighting? Will there be a benefit to oil/fuel shipment interdiction at this stage of the war? Again, Obvert, how much oil/fuel are you getting through the Luzon strait? While a Luzon focus may be easier than Formosa for the Allies, it also provides less overlapping support to coastal Chinese operations than a Formosa investment.

The low hanging fruit here for the Allies was / is Hokkaido. I am unclear on the rationale for drawing down forces in the North Japanese home islands. Unless the Allies decided that this was 'too expensive' in terms of time / men / materiale for limited gains. I think your opponent probably thought that a lodgement on Hokkaido would clear the way to an decisive strategic bombing campaign of Honshu and Kyushu. Your atypically stiff air defenses disabused him of that notion over the last 10 months of fighting.

He has had successes. He hasn't replicated them often, and he hasn't chosen to overwhelm the Japanese forces with days and days of hammer blows. A large portion of his air forces are dispersed in Malaya, Indochina, Shikuka and involved in hitting empty airfields and troops in jungles in all of those locations. The Shikuka forces include a lot of B-29s and those have only sporadically tested defenses.

I'll go further yet: the draw down of Allied forces in Hokkaido and primary vector shift to Luzon / Formosa may very well mean that he's 'giving up' on the strategic air war as a means to victory. No, not completely, but if he's redoubled his efforts on the ground war VP game, that may be evidence that he is demoting the strategic bombing campaign relatively. That and the very real possibility that he may be running light on assets (B17/24/29) with which to prosecute the strategic bombing campaign.

Would this then be welcomed by a Japan player hoping to further run off the clock and trade parsimonious Allied VP gains for more time? There's an argument to be made that such a diversion could be a welcome respite.

Any reduction of the Home Islands industry hurts. I just lost a Ki-84r Frank factory at 30/month. One strike on Fukuoka.

I've tried to make the air war psychologically tough, whether it's actually impossible to prosecute or not. I've wondered about pilot quality remaining more than anything, but he keeps sweeping and keeps up the milk runs. There is some low hanging fruit.

I wonder if he's just waiting for the Soviets to really push everywhere. That's a lot of stuff to throw in when Japan is already in a perilous position.

[obvert]

Had a weekend trip to Paris and got off track with my updates. I'll try to catch up a bit today.

We're still doing at least one turn a day. I see Dan is updating his second game much more than this one now. Understandable as there isn't a lot new to report. In fact I guess I'm a bit bored with the rinse and repeat of hitting a milk run, repairing air groups, loading up convoys to ship resources back and routing them to the safe zone through Cent Pac, and doing it all again after a few days when Allied bombing has left a base long enough the fields are operational.

I know the Soviets are coming very soon. I know this move by the DS is doing something, but I'm now starting to see it's much of the same. I know there will be changes and failings soon as the economy slows and Allied power grows further. I know an A-bomb or two is coming.

I just don't have that final dread and depression yet that I had last time against the relentless pressure JockMeister subjected me to in the endgame. This one is measured, slow, occasionally bold and creative, but sporadic. Unfocused, as Lowpe said recently, on the critical points of reducing the Japanese economy.

I'll do these reports more quickly to get to the present.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]July 14-15, 1945[/font]

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The biggest sweeps ever launched by the Allies in this game hit Nagasaki on the 14th. Numerous waves of Naval Corsairs supplemented by P-40Ns hit the CAP again and again. It goes well for the defence ofr a long time, but wears down and finally turns toward the Allies when a massive cooperating sweep comes from the DS. The bombing strikes don't appear until the afternoon however, so some CAP recovered and takes out a nice chunk of B-29s. [:)]

On the 15th a quieter day, with the DS moving to just off of Okinawa and showing that it has some Amphibs in it as well as the gaggle of CVs and surface ships. Where doth she go?

Johore Baru and Singers still taking a pounding. No more attacks yet at Johore by the Allied stack.
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR July 14, 1945
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Morning Air attack on Nagasaki/Sasebo , at 102,58

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 46 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 17 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 24
J7W1 Shinden x 42
N1K5-J George x 12
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 48
Ki-84b Frank x 88
Ki-84r Frank x 65
Ki-100-II Tony x 32

Allied aircraft
F4U-1A Corsair x 22

Japanese aircraft losses
A7M2 Sam: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 2 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 1 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 3 destroyed
Ki-100-II Tony: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1A Corsair: 5 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Nagasaki/Sasebo , at 102,58

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 17 NM, estimated altitude 39,900 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 21
J7W1 Shinden x 37
N1K5-J George x 12
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 44
Ki-84b Frank x 75
Ki-84r Frank x 56
Ki-100-II Tony x 23

Allied aircraft
F4U-1A Corsair x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
J7W1 Shinden: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1A Corsair: 2 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Nagasaki/Sasebo , at 102,58

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 18 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 18
J7W1 Shinden x 31
N1K5-J George x 7
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 37
Ki-84b Frank x 64
Ki-84r Frank x 47
Ki-100-II Tony x 12

Allied aircraft
Corsair IV x 16

Japanese aircraft losses
J7W1 Shinden: 1 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Corsair IV: 6 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Nagasaki/Sasebo , at 102,58

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 29 NM, estimated altitude 26,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 15
J7W1 Shinden x 28
N1K5-J George x 6
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 35
Ki-84b Frank x 52
Ki-84r Frank x 42
Ki-100-II Tony x 9

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
A7M2 Sam: 1 destroyed
J7W1 Shinden: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 2 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-II Tony: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 4 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Nagasaki/Sasebo , at 102,58

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 14 NM, estimated altitude 46,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 12
J7W1 Shinden x 23
N1K5-J George x 6
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 26
Ki-84b Frank x 45
Ki-84r Frank x 34
Ki-100-II Tony x 7

Allied aircraft
P-47N Thunderbolt x 16

Japanese aircraft losses
J7W1 Shinden: 1 destroyed
N1K5-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 2 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 3 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47N Thunderbolt: 7 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Nagasaki/Sasebo , at 102,58

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 13 NM, estimated altitude 48,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 11
J7W1 Shinden x 17
N1K5-J George x 5
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 21
Ki-84b Frank x 32
Ki-84r Frank x 26
Ki-100-II Tony x 7

Allied aircraft
P-47N Thunderbolt x 22

Japanese aircraft losses
J7W1 Shinden: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 2 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 2 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 2 destroyed
Ki-100-II Tony: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47N Thunderbolt: 3 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Nagasaki/Sasebo , at 102,58

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 22 NM, estimated altitude 46,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 10
J7W1 Shinden x 14
N1K5-J George x 4
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 15
Ki-84b Frank x 28
Ki-84r Frank x 17
Ki-100-II Tony x 4

Allied aircraft
P-47N Thunderbolt x 22

Japanese aircraft losses
A7M2 Sam: 2 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 1 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-II Tony: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47N Thunderbolt: 3 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x P-47N Thunderbolt sweeping at 42000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Nagasaki/Sasebo , at 102,58

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 44,300 feet.
Estimated time to target is 30 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 6
J7W1 Shinden x 12
N1K5-J George x 4
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 14
Ki-84b Frank x 20
Ki-84r Frank x 15
Ki-100-II Tony x 2

Allied aircraft
Corsair IV x 24
F4U-1D Corsair x 139

Japanese aircraft losses
A7M2 Sam: 2 destroyed
J7W1 Shinden: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 3 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 4 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-II Tony: 1 destroyed

No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
36 x F4U-1D Corsair sweeping at 39300 feet
17 x F4U-1D Corsair sweeping at 39300 feet
8 x Corsair IV sweeping at 39300 feet
17 x F4U-1D Corsair sweeping at 39300 feet
25 x F4U-1D Corsair sweeping at 39300 feet
17 x F4U-1D Corsair sweeping at 39300 feet
21 x F4U-1D Corsair sweeping at 39300 feet
15 x Corsair IV sweeping at 39300 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Nagasaki/Sasebo , at 102,58

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 46,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J7W1 Shinden x 5
N1K5-J George x 4
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 7
Ki-84b Frank x 5
Ki-84r Frank x 11

Allied aircraft
P-47N Thunderbolt x 24

Japanese aircraft losses
J7W1 Shinden: 2 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 2 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 1 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47N Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x P-47N Thunderbolt sweeping at 42000 feet *

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Nagasaki/Sasebo , at 102,58

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 6
J7W1 Shinden x 12
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 13
Ki-84b Frank x 13
Ki-84r Frank x 17

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 31
B-29B Superfort x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed, 13 damaged
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak
B-29B Superfort: 1 destroyed, 5 damaged

Resources hits 23
Manpower hits 4
Fires 2260

Aircraft Attacking:
11 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb


[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR July 15, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Johore Bahru (50,83)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 122083 troops, 1820 guns, 1600 vehicles, Assault Value = 3282

Defending force 59820 troops, 487 guns, 286 vehicles, Assault Value = 1586

Japanese ground losses:
124 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
18 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/color][/font]

[obvert]

Here is a shot of the DS. Going slowly. I've been rerouting convoys further East for now.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]July 16-18, 1945[/font]

---

The 16th and 17th are quiet, but the 18th is a flurry of action.

The DS picks up speed, or at least a section of it does, and appears near Iwo Jima. Another CV group shows up coming from the East near Marcus. The two seem to be converging to hit convoys near here. Some DDs are launched to try and hit something, and get to one big convoy near the Bonins. I lose one xAK sunk and one heavily damaged and limping to Chichi Jima. Funny to see Everton out here rather than a Fletcher or Sumner. I also got an xAK from a group of merchies moving from the East. Looks like a LOT. Where are they heading?

Also, I again placed CAP in Hangchow directly, took a bit of hit on the ground, but again got to the bombers in the air. Pretty heavy losses on both sides but going for the IJ overall.

Lets see where the DS heads now.
[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR July 18, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Time Surface Combat, near Chichi-jima at 109,74, Range 11,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
E Amami
E Hodaka
E Habuto
E Ikara, Shell hits 6, on fire
AK Shinryu Maru
AK Yamahagi Maru
AK Tenryu Maru
AK Tonan Maru, Shell hits 12, heavy fires, heavy damage
AK Toei Maru
xAK Manko Maru
xAK Heito Maru
xAK Natisan Maru, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
xAK Iburi Maru
xAK Ishikari Maru
xAK Terushima Maru
xAK Omi Maru
xAK Daido Maru
xAK Imizu Maru
xAK Kaiko Maru
xAK Akagisan Maru
xAK Hiyoshi Maru
xAK Kokai Maru
xAK Kozan Maru
xAK Sinsyu Maru
xAK Osaka Maru
xAK Seian Maru
xAK Shanghai Maru
xAK Kosei Maru
xAK Koto Maru
xAK Taifuku Maru
xAK Tamashima Maru
xAK Sumanoura Maru
xAK Ikoma Maru
xAK Mikasa Maru
xAK Maya Maru
xAK Rokko Maru

Allied Ships
DD Evertsen, Shell hits 1


Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 67% moonlight: 11,000 yards

Night Air attack on Toyama , at 112,57

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 73 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 21
P1Y2-S Frances x 3
Ki-45 KAId Nick x 8

Allied aircraft
B-29B Superfort x 44

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-29B Superfort: 17 damaged

Manpower hits 36
Fires 8100

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x B-29B Superfort bombing from 15000 feet
City Attack: 36 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Toyama , at 112,57

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 51 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 19
P1Y2-S Frances x 5
Ki-45 KAId Nick x 4

Allied aircraft
B-29B Superfort x 21

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-29B Superfort: 1 destroyed, 5 damaged

Manpower hits 5
Fires 13430

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x B-29B Superfort bombing from 15000 feet
City Attack: 36 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Toyama , at 112,57

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 65 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 20 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 11
P1Y2-S Frances x 2
Ki-45 KAId Nick x 4

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 14

Japanese aircraft losses
J1N1-Sa Irving: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 10 damaged
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak

Manpower hits 20
Fires 66250

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 7000 feet
City Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Wuchang , at 84,51

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 43 NM, estimated altitude 47,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M5 Jack x 14
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 12
Ki-84r Frank x 16

Allied aircraft
P-47N Thunderbolt x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
J2M5 Jack: 2 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47N Thunderbolt: 2 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Hangchow , at 90,55

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 70 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 20 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K5-J George x 31
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 14
Ki-83 x 47
Ki-84b Frank x 28
Ki-84r Frank x 22
Ki-100-II Tony x 30

Allied aircraft
A-20G Havoc x 3
A-26B Invader x 17
B-24J Liberator x 18
F-6D Mustang x 18
P-38L Lightning x 18
P-51D Mustang x 54
F4U-1A Corsair x 10
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 9
PB4Y-2 Privateer x 9
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 24

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K5-J George: 2 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 damaged
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed on ground
Ki-83: 4 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 3 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 2 destroyed, 7 damaged
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed on ground
Ki-100-II Tony: 5 destroyed, 13 damaged
Ki-100-II Tony: 4 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
A-20G Havoc: 1 damaged
A-26B Invader: 1 destroyed, 3 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 5 damaged
F-6D Mustang: 1 destroyed
P-38L Lightning: 3 destroyed
P-51D Mustang: 6 destroyed
F4U-1A Corsair: 1 destroyed
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 2 damaged
PB4Y-2 Privateer: 6 damaged
PB4Y-2 Privateer: 1 destroyed by flak
PBJ-1D Mitchell: 13 damaged

Airbase hits 7
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 50

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x PBJ-1D Mitchell bombing from 12000 feet
Airfield Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

Banzai! - Kimura S. in a Ki-84r Frank rams a PBJ-1D Mitchell for the Emperor

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Hangchow , at 90,55

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 54 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 21 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K5-J George x 7
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 12
Ki-83 x 29
Ki-84b Frank x 8
Ki-84r Frank x 16
Ki-100-II Tony x 10

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 12
A-26B Invader x 4
B-24J Liberator x 9
PV-2 Harpoon x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed on ground
Ki-83: 1 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-II Tony: 3 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.VI: 2 destroyed, 10 damaged
A-26B Invader: 1 destroyed, 3 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 2 destroyed, 5 damaged
PV-2 Harpoon: 1 destroyed, 4 damaged

Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 6

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x Liberator B.VI bombing from 12000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

Banzai! - Kamei S. in a Ki-84r Frank rams a PV-2 Harpoon for the Emperor

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Hangchow , at 90,55

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 36 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K5-J George x 1
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 6
Ki-83 x 10
Ki-84r Frank x 11
Ki-100-II Tony x 2

Allied aircraft
PBJ-1J Mitchell x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-83: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
PBJ-1J Mitchell: 2 destroyed, 1 damaged
PBJ-1J Mitchell: 1 destroyed by flak

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x PBJ-1J Mitchell bombing from 12000 feet
Airfield Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Agrihan at 113,82

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 2,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B6N2 Jill x 2

No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
xAK Charles G. Coutant, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires

Aircraft Attacking:
2 x B6N2 Jill bombing from 1000 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/color][/font]

[Chickenboy]

Interesting. On your strategic VP screen, it no longer shows "marginal Allied victory" or any such subjective summary victory condition indicators. I'm guessing this language doesn't exist for a 'draw' for either side?

Also, the use of PV-1 and PV-2 aircraft in the strategic bombing role suggests a dearth of viable airframes for this purpose. It'd be interesting to see what his pools of more suitable strategic bombers look like. I'm guessing it's LOW.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Interesting. On your strategic VP screen, it no longer shows "marginal Allied victory" or any such subjective summary victory condition indicators. I'm guessing this language doesn't exist for a 'draw' for either side?

Also, the use of PV-1 and PV-2 aircraft in the strategic bombing role suggests a dearth of viable airframes for this purpose. It'd be interesting to see what his pools of more suitable strategic bombers look like. I'm guessing it's LOW.

Interesting. I hadn't noticed that. I looked back and it hasn't had that note for a long while. It was there in December but not in January.

Could it be there has to be a certain ratio for it to start to appear? So right now there is no victory?

[Alfred]

The message only appears once a side reaches the 1.25:1 (marginal) or 1.75:1 (decisive) victory levels.
 
It can only appear under one side's ledger column hence no reference to lower ratios as it would then have to apply to both ledger columns.
 
Alfred