Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Canoerebel]

Could be, though that seems like a lot of effort knowing there might well be little or no return. I think it must have something to do with his plans for Attu.

[Canoerebel]

3/7/43

Battle of Tarawa: Dave commits combat vessels against Allied shipping at Tarawa and sends Mini KB after Mini DS. The result is an interesting clash that should leave the Allies with the upper hand in this area temporarily.

Two weeks ago, Dave revealed two carrier forces here - the big one, which sprinted south, and a smaller one that eventually moved off to the NW and vanished. As we know, the big one then sprinted all the way to NoPac. So it wasn't a factor in deciding whether and how to commit my forces here. I wasn't sure where the smaller enemy carrier TF had gone, but I figured this was the most likely spot, even while allowing for the possibility Dave might've sent it back towards Singers.

I configured my carriers defensively, with mostly fighters and all of them set to zero range and high CAP %s. This worked out fairly well. Dave's carrier wings took heavy losses (about 50%, I think), which should render him unable to stand toe-to-toe for awhile. On the debit side, I likely lose CVE Chenango (but not the fighters aboard, which diverted to Tarawa), two DDs, three xAPs, and damage here and there.

The Allied fighter corps is in excellent condition. Mini DS will move NE, willing to seek battle. TBFs and SBDs are set to range six, with a few F4F squadrons set to escort (most set to CAP).

I don't think Dave will pursue, yet he's very aggressive with his carriers. A surface clash is certainly a possibility.

[Canoerebel]

3/7/43

Battle of Tarawa: Mini KB launches morning and afternoon strikes against Mini DS and against Allied shipping at Tarawa.

The CAP performs pretty well. Damage incurred by the fleet is probably equivalent in points to what Dave lost in the air. The decisive factor will be if I retain control of the field while he has to retire to replenish/regroup. I think that's what's happened.

[Canoerebel]

Another oddity of this game - during this cruise, CVE Long Island has taken two bombs from good enemy strike aircraft and shows but minor damage. The first hit came several weeks back, during the invasion. Since then, she's steamed around, going with DS nearly to Palmyra, then coming back to Tarawa to take this second hit. She's good to go, barring enemy subs. That's unusual.

[Canoerebel]

3/7/43

Battle of Tarawa: The Japanese incur 6x air losses.

[Canoerebel]

3/7/43

Cocos Island: An Allied invasion force is two days out. Dave has eyes on them but many/most of his carriers are far, far away.

I have good troops prepped for targets in the Bay of Bengal, West Coast Oz, and Cocos. When KB showed up near Tarawa two weeks back, I chose to go with Cocos. The core of the force was a UK brigade 100% prepped at Capetown. As KB continued to dally and then began moving north, I wanted to move more quickly. 9th Oz Div. 49% prepped was at Colombo with supporting troops. They commenced loading. That armada passed Diego a few turns before the UK brigade arrived on map, which is how this invasion got spread out.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

3/7/43

Battle of Tarawa: The Japanese incur 6x air losses.

IIRC the right hand side is accurate. Whenever I see discrepancies in reports I just assume the result least favourable to me is more accurate. [8|]

Good result though, and your action here might draw TBs away from the ones approaching Cocos Is.
As for Hermes, she gets hit fairly easily because she is slow, but the armoured deck helps a lot so keeping her as a bomb magnet might help other ships avoid hits.

[Canoerebel]

I hadn't thought of that, though the main carrier TF does have three or four RN CVs. So ironclads are embedded.

For reasons I can't articulate, yet, I like having Hermes a bit behind the others. She has two small torpedo bomber squadrons. If Dave commits ships, Hermes might be able to slide around without having to wade through any subs that go after DS. Or something like that. Or perhaps nothing like that at all. She might just get overwhelmed or blunder into bad luck.

[Canoerebel]

3/8/43

Battle of Tarawa: Dave pulls his carrier TF back but sends in a small CA/DD TF that skirmishes with two small USN DDs. His subs sink two wounded APDs. Tambor puts one TT into CA Nachi (continuing my long, long, long record of damaging enemy ships while the enemy sinks mine). Mini DS slides forward without hostile encounters. Dave might be back, and he might bring back Fast KB, but for the next few days, the Allies should have the advantage here (subject to enemy subs turning the tables).

Invasion of Cocos Island: The invasion TF is two hexes "north" of Cocos. There's no sign of enemy opposition other than patrols D-Day takes place tomorrow. DS and Escorts will take post one hex "east" of Cocos.

SigInt: Heavy signals traffic west of Sapporo, which might be KB returning to port...or not. Those carriers shouldn't be able to come to the IO for at least ten days, unless Dave has some magic way of moving at flank speed without incurring SYS damage.

[tarkalak]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

3/7/43

Battle of Tarawa: The Japanese incur 6x air losses.

IIRC the right hand side is accurate. Whenever I see discrepancies in reports I just assume the result least favourable to me is more accurate. [8|]

Good result though, and your action here might draw TBs away from the ones approaching Cocos Is.
As for Hermes, she gets hit fairly easily because she is slow, but the armoured deck helps a lot so keeping her as a bomb magnet might help other ships avoid hits.

Both are inflated. [:)]

From looking at my AI games and comparing AARs where bot players show such scores the actual enemy losses are inflated with about 50% of the actual losses.

So remove about 1/3 and that is a better guesstimate. 80-100.

[Canoerebel]

3/9/43 and 3/10/43

Cocos Island: D-Day takes place on the 9th, with the Allies overwhelming the defenses and taking the island on the auto-shock attack. The defense consisted of a naval guard unit and no forts. The Allied troops were fairly disrupted. 9th Aussie Div. took about 50% disablements. (My island invasion skills need much more refinement.) No enemy opposition, thus far. I hope to have enough time to re-load some of the units even as the Brit brigade and a construction regiment come ashore tomorrow. I'd like to withdraw most of my shipping in about three days.

Tarawa: The Allied carriers are loitering in big circles well SE of the base. Dave's carrier force isn't "visible" at the moment. CVE Sangamon has 24 SYS damage, so I'd like to pull the carrier TFs out in a day or two for a visit to Pearl. But they'll linger until at least one of the cargo TFs can deliver supply (the first is about two days away).

CVE Chenango: She took to TTs from Kates a few days back but somehow lived to limp into a dot hex near Tabituea. That's remarkable. She'll try to hide right there for the next year or two. I won't count on her surviving enemy attention, but it's great that she has a chance. To this point, the Allies haven't lost any vessels involved in the carrier vs. carrier clash.

Indian Ocean: Dave is invading vacant Car Nicobar. CM Abdiel will try to fast-transport land a small detachment at Allied-owned Trinkat tonight.

Magwe: A concerted Allied effort to finish off the last of the oil production here. Sacrificial Hurricanes sacrificed themselves. P-38Gs did very well. And perhaps three dozen Forts and Liberators hit the base, destroying a dozen aircraft on the ground and scoring 24 hits on the oil. Those 24 hits apparently translated into just four damage! Arg! (My last mission, about three weeks ago, scored 10 hits that translated into zero damage.)

China: No major action on the MLR. Dave has a bunch of arty at Changsha that's bombarding. My garrison there isn't impregnable but it is decent.

NoPac: No sign of enemy ships of any kind. Lots of small Allied TFs trying to avoid known enemy sub locations to make important supply deliveries.

[jwolf]

How much of that 81 Flt damage is major? You just might be able to take this ship to Auckland via Suva. Would be cool to save it even if the big picture isn't really changed either way.

[Canoerebel]

Her major FLT damage is 53. Dave is good with his subs, which flood each active zone, so Chenago probably has to remain hidden until the front moves on to distant locales, eventually rendering this a quiet backwater.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Her major FLT damage is 53. Dave is good with his subs, which flood each active zone, so Chenago probably has to remain hidden until the front moves on to distant locales, eventually rendering this a quiet backwater.

I agree - moving a ship with 53 Floatation Damage before System Damage is worked down to 0 is just too risky. But if it really has a two year repair timeline, you might just have an ARD floating drydock you can send there by then!

[Canoerebel]

3/12/43 and 3/13/43

Battle of Cocos Island: Dave commits a carrier TF against the invasion force, and a large air battle takes place with DS. The results are mixed but, I think, leave the Allies in control of the field. So this is the second Antietam this month.

I didn't see the enemy carriers coming but based all my orders on the assumption they might. My Cocos patrols didn't pick them up. Typically, my carrier strike aircraft are set to short range and search/ASW. I only issue offensive orders when conditions warrant. In this case, I had set my guys to offensive missions five or six turns back, thinking that anything they'd bump up against would be manageable. Then, two turns back and after Cocos fell, I decided to revert to defensive setting. The escort fighters were switched over to CAP....but I forgot to change the strike aircraft settings! As a result, I lost about 160 of them. Arg.

And even then, my CAP was less than expected. CV Hornet somehow had 104 aircraft and thus couldn't handle flight ops (this was due to squadron size increasing automatically or some such - I never put more than 100 aircraft on a big CV). So none of Hornet's squadrons flew, costing me about 20% of my CAP but saving her strike aircraft from destruction.

Despite those mishaps, Allied CAP performed quite well. The enemy alpha strike got through and did some damage, but not enough to halt flight ops.

I think Dave shot his wad on this attack, so my guys will pull back, but that's mainly organizational - I want to lasso all the TFs into a single hex. He'll probably withdraw but that's not a certainty. He might think more damage was done than was.

Cocos has two forts and the airfield should go to level 1 in about two days. 11k supply is ashore and 400 AV. That's pretty good, but getting supply in will be an issue going forward. He'll have carrier superiority for quite some time to come, as two of mine will go to Capetown.

[Canoerebel]

3/14/43 and 3/15/43

Battle of Cocos Island: Thinking my guys are retiring, Dave presses the attack. But his guys are fagged. His alpha strike on the 14th consist of 68 Zeros and 13 strike aircraft, which get mauled by 140 Allied fighters on CAP. A smaller enemy strikes damages two of three DDs that tried and failed to intercept KB. One of those two (Farragut class) will sink. On the 15th, he commits bombardment TFs against Cocos - they manage modest port damage. My carriers and his are just four hexes apart, with Cocos in between. His bombardment TF hung up at the island. Four Fletchers will try for an intercept tonight on the supposition the enemy is low on ammo. Unbelievably, what looks to be a counterinvasion force is inbound. One of us doesn't know this battle is (temporarily) over! He think I have about 130 AV ashore, but it's 400. Supply will be the issue. I think he will pull back, but I've thought that before. My guys will hang around - at least for three or four more days (or until I begin to fear that somehow that big carrier TF recently in NoPac might show up).

Battle of Tarawa: Mini KB shows up eight or nine hexes NW of the island and launches a series of strikes against a small CL/DD TF. My CAP handles things well and Dave loses 70 aircraft to my six.

NoPac: No sign of the enemy. Missions to augment supply at most bases have been successful.

Bay of Bengal: Dave took unoccupied Car Nicobar but Abdiel inserted a small infantry force at Trinkat. His little detachment then came ashore in bad shape. He'll take it soon, as I'm just messing with his mind around here. He has some real weaknesses here but I won't be able to exploit them anytime soon. Unless nearly all of his carriers show up far, far away, I'll be limited in what I can do until my carriers are fixed.

The Year of Attrition: is off to a rousing start. The invasions of Tarawa and Cocos have provoked sharp reactions. Both sides are fighting hard. Both sides are inflicting and taking measurable losses. Overall, I feel like this has gone pretty well.

On the debit side, I've lost a handful of low-value DDs and a bunch of xAPs. Three CVEs have been damaged (one badly), as have three CVs. One BB and one CA have suffered torpedo hits. I lost a bunch of strike aircraft.

On the credit side, Dave's lost CA Takao (confirmed), CA Nachi took a TT, and CA Kumano just hit a mine at Cocos. Dave's aircraft losses are 2x or 2.5x mine. His carrier air has really taken a hit. The Allied position around Tarawa is strong. The position at Cocos isn't so strong, mainly because it's so exposed. I think Dave will give these areas so much attention that others will receive less.

The fighting has been fun and furious.

[BBfanboy]

Is Japan's experienced Naval Pilot pool as thin in Scenario 2 as it is in Scenario 1?
How does your pool of experienced DB and TB pilots look?

[CaptBeefheart]

Why not go for the jugular (i.e. his CVs) in the IO? What's your assessment of his ships and aircraft vs. yours?

Cheers,
CB

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Is Japan's experienced Naval Pilot pool as thin in Scenario 2 as it is in Scenario 1?
How does your pool of experienced DB and TB pilots look?

We've had three carrier engagements in the last 30 days, but those are the first of the entire war. So neither side had suffered any carrier pilots losses until now.

Two-thirds of his carrier pilots have been involved in heavy fighting, taking a lot of losses. The other third - the big carrier TF recently in NoPac - should be in good shape.

I've committed all my carriers. Yorktown and Hornet haven't suffered any losses (fighters or strikers). Wasp, Ent, and Sara's fighter pilots are in great shape but their striker pilots have been a bit roughed up.

My pools are deep. Dave's should be too.

He's lost 1.75x strike pilots and probably 4x fighter pilots in the past month.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Why not go for the jugular (i.e. his CVs) in the IO? What's your assessment of his ships and aircraft vs. yours?

Cheers,
CB

If I hadn't lost 70% of my strike pilots, I would. But, if that were the case, Dave would've sent his carriers back to Java at flank speed.