Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

There will be armies loading at Nanking and in northern Indochina, probably at different times, slated for different targets. The exact sequence depends on which target appears most efficient to strike, based upon locality and availability of my forces and strength of opposing forces. To this point, I think the order will be Formosa, Philippines, northern Yellow Sea.

One of the original targets, Hainan Island, won't require invasion. Allied paratroops took Kiungshan. The other base, Samah, is held by a mixed brigade, so I'll transport in a division or two to handle it. The Amphib Force HQ long-prepped for Samah switched targets today.

A lot is going to happen over the next month or two.

[Canoerebel]

7/7/45 to 7/10/45

Allied Carriers: The two death stars finally merged, just south of Formosa, and are en route to the Tungchow/Shanghai sector. For me, the journey of RN DS was fraught with uncertainty and peril. I was sure Erik would be waiting for such an opportunity and would pounce. The combining of the forces is key for the coming months. RN DS has a bunch of powerful combat TFs. A number of these will remain at Tungchow, protecting that all-important naval/air base that's surrounded by unfriendlies. In the meantime, New Improved DS will embark on major ops, starting with the invasion of Formosa or Luzon, then providing escort of a massive inbound supply/reinforcement convoy. When that convoy arrives, DS will switch over to mostly offensive ops, including sweeps against the Home Islands and hunting enemy vessels.

China: More than half of the Allied army in the Nanking/Tungchow sector will board amphibious ships to handle the invasion of Formosa and/or Luzon. The balance will be a bit vulnerable. I'm expecting that Allied unit firepower and the availability of ships and aircraft will dissuade Erik from going on the offensive, but I'll watch carefully. Help shouldn't ever be far away.

Southern China: The Allied army at Nanning broke contact and pulled back to Vietnam. There it'll wait until DS can return with transports. From there, the army will likely form the bulk of the Yellow Sea invasion force. But if opportunities arise in the meantime, I'll use it. For instance, I could send the army to Singers by rail (mostly). Or, if Erik perceives a threat elsewhere and withdraws from Nanning, my army might try that vector again.

Singapore: The Allied air forces are keeping Singers and Johore airfields suppressed. I have 3000+ AV at Johore that may try another probing deliberate attack, if and when the daily bombings begin to show the enemy is vulnerable (low supply and/or sharp decreases in AV during bombardments).

DEI: The Allies have most of Sumatra now but not enough firepower to take Palembang. Elsewhere, recon/patrols show light garrisons and heavy ship traffic all over the place. The challenge is that Erik has lots of airfields and shows a willingness to use them. So I'm using small, cheap APDs to advance, taking dot hexes for nav search purposes. Eventually, I'll find a way to take a bigger base in order to truly reduce this sector.

Air Wars: The strength of the Japanese fighter corps complicates everything - from strategic bombing to my inability to protect ground units advancing in open terrain. Most days, I lose 2x or 3x the number of aircraft he does - a lot of that is flak damage taken by bombers hitting big airfields or stacks with tons of AA. So many days he might lose 30 aircraft while I lose 60; or he loses 15 and I lose 45. Even at high altitudes, my bombers take fairly heavy losses. But Allied fighters tend to get positive results more and more these days. I'm not certain yet whether that's due to diminishing enemy fighter (or pilot) quality or if Erik is just using his second team at the places I'm attacking. I think that the combination of Allied LBA fighters and naval fighters will allow a successful strat bombing campaign as we move into late summer and autumn. The B-29 nuke squadron just moved forward from West Coast to Asia.

Erik's End Game: Erik has been extraordinarily cautious with his bombers and fighters. I haven't seen advanced airframes yet. He's only used a few kamis. And his air force is massively potent, I'd guess, with all pilots highly trained. I don't want to blunder into the most massive quality kamikaze attack of all time. I'm willing to steer Death Star close to big bases like Formosa, because I think he doesn't have adequate base forces there or supply, and Shanghai (because I keep it pretty suppressed). I don't think DS will ever venture close to the massive complex of airfields on Kyushu and the other Home Islands. So he'll get his chances to launch big strikes, but not of the order that would totally overwhelm DS, I hope.

[Canoerebel]

7/11/45 to 7/17/45

In the Philippine Sea: I think a major confrontation will take place tomorrow between Marcus and Iwo. Erik belatedly, but not too belatedly as it turns out, caught wind of a major reinforcement armada inbound from Hawaii (he didn't get eyes on it until after it passed Marcus). DS left coastal China about six days back to work the rendezvous but was slowed by refueling needs. Thus it isn't in the position I had expected to make the rendezvous. I knew that might happen and, as a fallback, hoped to work an ambush of KB by DS carriers. As it turns out, I think by TFs are about five hexes too far apart for this to work as I had envisioned. So I modified the plan, erring on the side of protecting the capital ships while exposing many, many, many lower value merchantmen as they make their way inbound. I think Erik is coming with everything he has. Uh oh.

Strategic Bombing: Before vacating the East China Sea, DS fighters cooperated with LBA in sweeping/bombing Fukuoka and Nagasaki very effectively. The Shinden appeared for the first time. Overall, the combined Allied arms worked well. My carrier fighters are performing well against his fighters, giving me hope for the future (assuming I don't lose my carriers in the Pacific tomorrow). There is a possibility he isn't using his best pilots/aircraft at the moment, but I think these were representative groups.

Short-Term Plans: If DS & The Herd survive the next two turns satisfactorily (I think they will, though the toll on the inbound merchant shipping will be heavy), the Allies will invade Luzon or Formosa, whichever looks weakest. 100%-prepped Amphib HQs give me the flexibility to choose either target. And the massive Allied army in Indochina/western China has split - some holding position on the border while the balance of the army (all units 100% prepped for Singers) take the rail back there. The trip will go pretty quickly, as all these guys can use Strat Road Movement on the small gap between Saigon and Phnom Penh. I think Erik's army at Jorore/Singers is somewhat vulnerable and this will augment my force by 200%. These guys weren't going to be needed for the next three weeks, or so, as the Luzon/Formosa invasion force has sufficient troops to handle those targets.

[BBfanboy]

.

[Canoerebel]

7/18/45

Philippine Sea: Erik didn't pounce. Last night, I was certain that he would. Having gotten myself into a bit of a bind, I was prepared to lose a lot of merchantmen but thought there was a fair chance the Allied carrier movements would surprise him, so that he might lose a lot of aircraft. This was his chance to pounce on a divided Allied carrier corps but he didn't.

Of course, he's playing with house money. I'm more than 80k points from auto-vic (I lead by a measly 3k), so he can afford to be choosey. He doesn't have to attack. He can simply run out the clock, play a four corners defense, go into a safety formation, and never do another thing. But he's so good and so aggressive that I thought he'd jump at the first chance he's had in more than a year to fight on good terms.

The three Allied armadas should rendezvous tomorrow. The danger has probably passed, but one more day will really do it.

The incoming TFs have a lot of supply and fuel - enough to finish the war, supplemented by what's coming in through Malaya and Indochina. No more risky trips, I think.

The Allies will invade Luzon first, I think because of the Manila points harvest and to begin the serious work of dividing the empire. I haven't reconned Aparri yet, to keep up maskirovka. But the invasion force is fully prepped and very big.

A big nighttime strat bombing mission vs. Toyama went fairly well. Strat bombing will accelerate once DS is available to coordinate again, which should be a week or so. I think the Allies are making serious progress in the fighter wars now, but Erik may be showing only half his cards.

Tomorrow a probing deliberate attack at Johore, the second. The first took place a month or more back. Since then, bombers have been working pretty effectively. I have 3.3k AV to 1.5k for Erik. I have another 6k inbound by rail from Indochina.

Do not go quietly into that dark night?

[JohnDillworth]

The Allies will invade Luzon first, I think because of the Manila points harvest and to begin the serious work of dividing the empire[/quote]

yes, This ^^^^^^^^^^ may finally close the supply route to the DEI. House money indeed......plus the ability to print more money. As long as he has supply and resources he can just keep pumping out more and better planes

[Bif1961]

So you were thinking he was trying to pull off a Joseph E. Johnston battle of Bentonville, NC? However during the civil war they didn't have Victory Points, Victory was the only Point.

[Canoerebel]

7/19/45 to 7/27/45

Rendezvoused: The rendezvous between the Herd inbound from Midway and DS steaming west from China was made south of Iwo Jima, without major incident (the only exception Judys sanke about a dozen supply xAKs). From there, the combined TFs steamed NW, sometimes slowly (two tankers collided, thus badly slowing the group for one day, then refueling requirements for another).

This was the last major convoy that will steam this way from the West Coast. All units and ships are present for end-war purposes. Supply and fuel stocks are good and the overland supply line from Malaya up to northern Indochina is working well. Future supply/fuel deliveries should all be handled that way, rather than the more risky overseas route.

Luzon: D-Day at Aparri was on the 26th and the base fell the next day. The Allies have about 4k AV to work with. Recon shows about 25k Japanese troops at Manila. Erik may have substantial reinforcements nearby, but I doubt it.

Hainan Island: Samah also fell on the 26th, so the Allies control this island.

Singapore: Erik withdrew his troops from Johore Bahru a few days back. He has about 140k troops at Singers. As best I can tell, he has 33rd Division, a remnant of 120th Div., and a bunch of mixed brigades and the like. At Johore, I have 3.7k AV fully prepped, with another 3k AV fully prepped set to arrive in about four days. The airfield has long been closed (or mostly closed). I don't know if supply is an issue but it may be. The crossing will likely take place in about six or eight days. That should be interesting.

China: I withdrew much of my army out of China for the Luzon invasion, leaving the Nanking area strongly defended. Erik shows no signs of offensive activity.

Allied Armies: Once Allied forces on Luzon can handle local defense, DS will move to Haiphong to embark a large army that will reinforce Allied ops in China (or possibly to invade Formosa, taking advantage of a fully-prepped Amphib Force HQ - in fact, I like that idea now that I've put it in writing). Once Singers falls, which could be anywhere from a month to never, that Allied army will mostly head north for the China/Korea campaign. Some units will be used to pick up bases in the DEI, mainly Java.

Allied Navies: The main role for DS will be to help with sweeps for Strat Bombing purposes.

Allied Air Forces: Strat bombing will be the primary role, once DS if available (perhaps a week or two). Atomic bombs will be available shortly. In the meantime, a few small raids against remnant industry on Hokkaido has accomplished little.

Russia: Will activate in about ten days. I've moved most of the air forces to the far west, lest Erik try for a surprise bombing campaign to harvest points. I have a few select fighter squadrons at forward bases, hoping to get a chance to evaluate their merit vs. the Japanese air force. The squadrons have '45-model aircraft (which might not be worth much) and are handled by very experienced pilots. I've hard bad things about the Russian air force, but I have to try it to see.

Points: The Allies have a meager 3k lead and need (at currently scores) about 85k to win. That's a long, tall order. Singers, Manila, and Strategic Bombing offer significant amounts. Chungking does too, but I'm not sure that'll ever be in the picture. There are 20 zillion enemy ships that represent alot of points. Erik is beginning to run out of sea room. Allied patrols newly installed near Ambon and at Apparri leave him with precious little dark corridors for safe steaming. I'm allowing for him to have carriers in the DEI, until I know for certain that he doesn't, but I'm beginning to think he's pulling nearly everything out of that region, preparatory to making his final stands in the Home Island.

[HansBolter]

I'm surprised you don't see any need for additional convoys from the WC.

Do you not get a surge of air unit and even ground troop reinforcements over the next few months as I did in scenario 40?

Around this time the First Army consisting of V, VII and XVII corps started arriving in SF and the British 10 Corps starts arriving in VC in scenario 40 and B17s, B24s, B29s, P51Hs and P47n squadrons arrive almost non-stop.

Ground units have tapered off by November, but I am still seeing a trickle of air units.

[Canoerebel]

I think I have the forces/supplies at hand needed to deal with Japan through the endgame. But, of course, I'll bring in ship/aircraft/unit reinforcements as they arrive, just not via the slow, fairly risky Trans-Pacific route. Most can now come in via the IO through Malaya/Indochina. Alternatively, I believe a route via Oz to Java or Borneo will open in the not-too-distant future.

[Canoerebel]

7/28/45 and 7/29/45

Singapore: Allied paratroops (100% prepped) probed Singapore to measure the fortifications. Turns out to be level 6. The roster of enemy units had already been established by repeated ground bombing: 33rd Div., part of 120th Div., and a bunch of mixed brigades are the heart. The Allied attack revealed an enemy adjusted AV of something like 19k. Yikes. Allied bombes are working over them enemy units each day, plus the airfield, fairly effectively.

The question becomes: When and how to force the crossing? In about four days, I'll have 6k or 7k AV fully prepped. Send them now? Wait until the bombers have lowered supply? Send part, then send more later (the latter thus avoiding the shock attack)? My inclination is to go as soon as possible with either 1/2 the army or all of it.

DEI: Superforts from Malacca finished off Jap shipping at Soerabaja. CV Antietam, skirting below Java en route to Darwin to join a small carrier force, steamed within range of enemy bombers...and I'd failed to take the fighters off training! Yowza! I got lucky. Flak handled a medium-sized strike. I don't think ERik has a carrier force down, but there's some uncertainty. So Antietam diverted to a much more southerly course.

Luzon: Allies are advancing in good order. Thus far, Erik isn't bombing to harass my leading armored elements. If he doesn't, the first units should reach Manila in four days or so. In a week or so, a big Allied army will be present. Enemy garrison is just 20k at the moment. Paratroops will try for vacant Legaspi tomorrow. An APD force will land a detachment at vacant San Fernando tomorrow. At the moment it doesn't appear that he intends to defend strongly here. Allied carrier strike aircraft sank a bunch of TKs and escorts south of Manila, but unescorted strike aircraft ran afoul of good CAP over Manila. Overall, the shipping sunk was worth probably 2x the aircraft loss, but still vexing. DS will remain on station around Luzon until the situation at Manila is clarified (big battle or easy fall?). DS could depart in anywhere from four days to ten days.

China: Allied bastion around Nanking/Tungchow remains unmolested. I thought Dave might try to gang up on my guys but he shows no inclination to do so.

[Canoerebel]

Atomic bombs have been activated. I won't be using them until Death Star fighters can lend a hand with sweep duties. The bomb is a daylight mission, which is a good way to get B-25Bs chewed up. Erik has hundreds (sometimes 500) fighters at his major bases, like Osaka and Tokyo.

Nagasaki won't be a target, as it's already half-pulverized. The target(s) will be one of the other big industrial cities and/or the big aircraft manufacturies. (Duh.)

[BillBrown]

I think you are getting your games mixed up. You have the wrong year above, should be 45 not 43. And Dave is not your opponent in this game.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Bill. I've made the correction.

I haven't confused the games in real life - each one gets my full attention. It's easy to keep them separated since they're two years apart on the calendar.

Dave is flipping four to six turns a day, while Erik has been slowed by real life to a few a week. So I've become conditioned in entering the password to using the one for my game with Dave (resulting in many failures to load Erik's game) and, as you've just noted, date confusion (and often opponent's first name confusion) in writing the AARs.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks, Bill. I've made the correction.

I haven't confused the games in real life - each one gets my full attention. It's easy to keep them separated since they're two years apart on the calendar.

Dave is flipping four to six turns a day, while Erik has been slowed by real life to a few a week. So I've become conditioned in entering the password to using the one for my game with Dave (resulting in many failures to load Erik's game) and, as you've just noted, date confusion (and often opponent's first name confusion) in writing the AARs.

Understandable - all those Japanese side players look the same!

[Canoerebel]

Yes, they do! In my feverish nightmares, they all look like John III.

[Canoerebel]

7/30/45

DEI/IO/Oz: Nav Search found enemy carriers near Balikpapan. I haven't seen carriers down here in more than six months and maybe more than a year. I figured there were some lurking about. The force might be stronger than the mouseover indicates (early detection usually under-reports). The Allied carrier force, when it combines in about a week, can't stand against that group augmented by enemy LBA, so I'll have to be careful in this sector for the foreseeable future.

The Allies have taken most of Sumatra and several dot bases near Timor (for nav search). Many enemy bases are lightly garrisoned or undefended. Erik probably doesn't intend to make a hard stand here, relying instead on his interlocking airfields to keep me in check since most of my carriers are elsewhere.

[Canoerebel]

7/30/45

Philippines: The Allied invasion is progressing quickly. I don't think Erik intends to defend strongly here, which makes sense. From my perspective it was important due to Manila's value (1350 Japanese, 2700 Allies). That represents more than 5% of the total needed to reach 2x. It's another step towards dividing the Empire, but to really accomplish that, DS would have to take station south of the Home Islands. That's the only thing that would really prevent Erik from finding seams to run convoys. At some point, DS probably will take station there, mainly to provide sweeps of key enemy bases.

The Allies currently have four massive armies in the Asian theater - 7000 AV near Singers, 3500 AV on Luzon, about 8000 around Hanoi/Haiphong and about 5500 at and near Nanking. Once Luzon falls, most of that army, plus most of the Indochina army, will handle Formosa. Then the combined Allied armies will move on China, Manchuria or Korea, dovetailing with Russian activation.

Singapore I'm not sure about. The enemy's adjusted AV is daunting, as reported a few days ago. Yet the base looks vulnerable to me - lots of small units, the bigger units somewhat beat up, under constant air attack from close range, and a strong Allied army. I'd like to be optimistic but usually the real tough nuts take much longer than expected. I have some hopes it might wrap up in two months.

[Canoerebel]

7/30/45

Singapore: Allied units are still arriving in strat mode. The last contingent will arrive in about two or three days. Then comes the decision whether to attack and, if so, whether to commit all troops to the crossing or just a portion (probably 50%).

[Canoerebel]

7/31/45

Soviet's Active: I figured activation would take place on the actual date (which I think was around August 3 or 4?), but while looking over Soviet units today, discovered that they were able to move. Voila, activation has occurred.

The Soviet troops are fully prepped, mostly upgraded, well led, and with decent to high experience. The air force is upgraded and the pilots well trained. The navy hasn't arrived yet. I assume it will during the next turn.

I thought Erik might do a preemptive strike on the eve of activation, so I previously moved the air force to the west or off map, on the belief that even the well-trained, up-to-date fighters can't handle elite enemy fighter squadrons.

For the most part, the Soviets are going to advance on the eastern side, in the forest. I'm going to avoid the wide open terrain (mostly), as Erik's bombers would hammer troops left exposed.

Singapore: Still two to three days for some units at Johore to convert from Strat to Combat. The advance on Singers should commence in three days.

DEI: Two large enemy combat TFs seen in coming down the Makassar Strait, SE of Balikpapan. Perhaps Erik will try bombarding the Allied bases like Johore, etc. The challenge for him is that he doesn't have any open airfields in the vicinity.

Luzon: Night bombers destroyed a bunch of good enemy fighters on the ground; Allied paratroops took Atimonan and Cabantuan. Advance Allied troops (armor) could arrive at Manila in about three days. No sign of enemy strengthening.

Death Star: Full tankers disbanded at Appari allowed DS to fully refuel today. The bunkers had gotten pretty low after the weeks of steaming about, from Hainan Island to near Iwo to Luzon. There's a chance the situation at Luzon will be good enough to allow DS to move away in about a week, to pick up the army at Hanoi/Haiphong, thence to move on Formosa and eventually China/Manchurai/Korea.