Banzais Don't Make Victories - Anachro (A) vs John 3rd (J) BTS 5.7

[Anachro]

Forgot to mention: regarding the CD units on Ceylon, by ground attacks using massed heavy bombers are having decent effect, causing anywhere between 400-1k casualties on good days, including disabled and destroyed squads. We are also destroying a decent number of guns. The CD units can be heavily degraded before troops even make it ashore, perhaps.

[Anachro]

March 14th, 1943

John's latest words to me in our email exchange:

Beware the IDES OF MARCH!

The current situation at Wake. My carriers are on their way back to Pearl Harbor. A number of transports are offloading supplies at Wake while some begin transporting the 3rd Marine Division and the 37th (Sep) Infantry Regiment back to Pearl. Crucially, 6k supplies now sit at Wake in addition to individual supplies for the units there. Unfortunately, there are still 17k men at the base which will need to be offloaded in the coming weeks. The base is in good order though, with 2 fighters wings (48 fighters in total) providing CAP.

Regarding, John's words, not sure what to make of them. He has had a small xAK force moving around in the north for the last few turns, east of Midway and west of Marcus Island. Not sure if he is testing my nav search or trying to draw forces into an ambush or just using it as a distraction.



In Ceylon, as stated before, all airfields are showing high damage due to sustained bombing. John has ~45k troops on Ceylon and given his complete lack of air power in the area, these units are a bit forlorn. I can only imagine he is keeping some carriers at Diego Garcia for a quick intervention if need be, he certainly is active enough with light cruisers/destroyers from that direction.

[Bif1961]

Nice you are using American troops for the invasion of Colombo since they have the deepest pools to sustain them there if they find themselves in a protracted battle for Ceylon. I see you have paras ready to jump in and other than the base in central Ceylon the others bases look to strongly held for a jump.

[Anachro]

Wake now has 9k supply and only 13k troops. Supply situation is much better. As for Ceylon, the plan with paras is to attempt to take center base but also to prevent him railing his troops from any of his bases to wherever I do land.

[Anachro]

In other news, it's a very nice day in Boston right now; hard to stay inside and work on a turn! Here's a picture of Boston Harbor.

[ny59giants]

John got me hooked on this author, Bobby Akart. The series (7 books about 200 pages plus each) I'm reading now is "The Boston Brahmin." It centers around the relatives of many "Founding Fathers" in this area after a nation-wide cyber attacks knock out all the electricity. I've read some of the others which involve a world-wide pandemic, an EMP, and CME. The last one I have to read is about Yellowstone erupting. They are very good reads, IMO.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants_MatrixForum

John got me hooked on this author, Bobby Akart. The series (7 books about 200 pages plus each) I'm reading now is "The Boston Brahmin." It centers around the relatives of many "Founding Fathers" in this area after a nation-wide cyber attacks knock out all the electricity. I've read some of the others which involve a world-wide pandemic, an EMP, and CME. The last one I have to read is about Yellowstone erupting. They are very good reads, IMO.

Back when the SARS and Bird Flu viruses were causing real concern about how many people it would infect I was in a group of Federal Government managers who were briefed by an epidemiologist who had done some studies on large scale effects. At a relatively low rate of infection - something like 30% IIRC, the trucking industry can no longer deliver food on a consistent basis to our cities. Utilities like power grids begin to have issues because there are not enough people to repair and operate them. It goes on and on.

[Anachro]

Nothing much to say; organizing for landings. Ceylon is almost 100% prepped. The two American divisions will spearhead the landings, followed by significant backup forces if needed that can be quickly moved from nearby by landing craft. The other major landings are also getting closer and closer. Wake now has 15k supply and 10k men, so the supply situation there is better and the infantry regiment and 3rd Marine division will soon begin prep for new landings.

[Anachro]

March 25th, 1943- Evacuation of Ceylon?

Over the past week, we've seen Japanese troops moving in Ceylon, westward towards Trincomalee. This, combined with sigint showing heavy radio activity moving this way, led me to believe that John is attempting another evacuation of troops from the area. This turn, our supposition is proven correct as a large series of Japanese convoys seems headed for Ceylon, composed of transports and protected by CVE's filled completely with fighters to provide CAP. This is necessary as all the airfields on Ceylon are out of commission for the moment. With this exposed, we have accumulated fighters and naval bombers at our airfields on the southern tip of India. Can we cause some damage or will a series of uncoordinated strikes screw us like last time when John partially evacuated Calcutta?

Plan, for now, is to first sweep whatever port John chooses to evac from (potentially Trincomalee) using massed fighters at Tanjore, this will be followed by a coordinated strike of DBs and TBs (with escorts) from Trivandrum. Submarines are also moving towards Trincomalee to see what they can catch.



Oh, and our invasion force sets forth from a coastal port in India. Destination: Colombo.

[Anachro]

There was also a lot of radio activity in the area north of Tulagi and south of Ponape. I'm talking 3 or 4 different entries of Heavy Radio Activity in one turn. John is moving something, a lot of something there. Does he plan another invasion? Or is he extracting troops from his edges, or reinforcing them? Sigint shows the Maizuru Assault Division planning for Efate.

[jwolf]

The intel on the enemy carrier group appears to be faulty: either showing too many carriers or too few planes. If the first 3 are really CV and not CVE then he should have a very powerful group there.

[Anachro]

We'll find out. Recon should improve over the next few days and I can always turn my invasion convoys back early. I wouldn't mind sweeping and killing some elite KB pilots. In my experience, however, the pilot allocation usually is a good indication and is not often wrong. The number of planes might be off, but if the carriers in the convoy had other things besides fighters, it'd give some indication.

[Anachro]

March 27th, 1943

The picture a few days later. Initially, John appeared on course to be one hex out of Trincomalee, but this turn he makes the logical step to move towards Koggala. Koggala is farther away from my airbases and gives him the best chance of avoiding massed air attack, so it makes sense. Unfortunately for him, he runs into part of my 21 subs heading to Trincomalee and both a CVE (one of his AV conversions) and an xAK take torpedo hits. The xAK shows no casualties, so I assume they are empty and this is an evacuation. More importantly, the CVE that is damage suffers a fuel explosion and recon shows a 2-ship TF now moving east. I can only hope that we kill off this CVE to repay for mine lost at Wake Island and that we sink more Japs, more Japs, more Japs! Interestingly, John has a LOT of other combat TFs in the area, but none of these have shown themselves to have carriers. I wonder why he has so many sticking around in the south. Was he trying to keep these hidden as a trap like Yamamoto at Midway, in case I sent a surface force at John?

The real question is what to do with my carriers. They have 106 fighters, 30 TBs, and 32 DBs. John's carrier force clearly has fighters only. If my CAP was set to 50, my bombers would be eaten up, but if I devoted all my fighters to escort duty, we might be able to get through and cause some damage. Until we know more about John's various forces, we will stay back for now. If he has other carriers hidden, I don't want to be caught with barely any CAP. In the mean time, we'll send sweeps against Koggala to wear down his fighters and see what happens.

[Anachro]

March 28th, 1943

It would appear misdirection is part of John's game, and he even says so in his email.

I think you THOUGHT I would be predictable…

Home for one that is SURE FIRE gonna be interesting!

As he says, he makes the move once again towards Trincomalee, which wasn't expected. And while my sweeper fighters waste the day unharmed, a secondary strike I had setup that was to stay just out of Koggala's range is chewed up. I lose a lot of British DBs in the process, as well as fighters. However, the good news is that I manage to put the CVE Brazil Maru beneath the waves for good, sending 36 fighters down with her. Furthermore, John's movement back towards Trincomalee puts him in prime position to do a double-whammy strike of sweeps from Tanjore while my strike package launches from Trivandrum. As such, 150 fighters or thereabouts will sweep Trincomalee before my strike package moves in. Furthermore, my heavy bombers will hit Trincomalee's airfield, which is currently at 93 damage.

While this is all going on, my unspotted carrier task force will move within range, 5 hexes from Trincomalee, and launch a full strike. We'll see what happens. John has some CAs and BBs to the south. Is KB 2 nearby? This is a gamble; John got a 1/1 radio activity spot on my invasion convoy. He might preemptively send any carrier assets in the area (most likely at Diego Garcia) north.

As for some weird information, sigint is telling me John has an AA unit on its way in a boat to reinforce Trincomalee.

[Canoerebel]

In circumstances like this, John would ordinarily have a big carrier force hidden somewhere nearby, ready to pounce. You may know where all his carriers are, but if not.....

Good luck.

[BBfanboy]

I wonder if "SURE FIRE" is a Freudian slip, with his CVE burning up on his mind!

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In circumstances like this, John would ordinarily have a big carrier force hidden somewhere nearby, ready to pounce. You may know where all his carriers are, but if not.....

Good luck.

During the week or two after the Wake Invasion, the Japanese equivalent of 6 carriers and 2 CVLs appeared off of Wake not too far from my own carriers. I would guess this is the main KB; there must be a smaller KB somewhere else, such as in the DEI or Indian Ocean. John has focused on trying to hamper my ability to nav search from Male through bombardments by CL; it could well be he has his CV's stationed at Diego and is trying to hide them when they move.

EDIT

I don't know if you guys noticed, but in the victory screen it now says "minor victory" for Japan instead of "major victory." Milestones.

I just noticed that! [:D]

[Anachro]

March 29th, 1943

John decides that discretion is the better part of valor and pulls his CVEs back eastward. He leaves a number of transports behind, however, and they are obliterated in the day's naval strikes. Moreover, our subs do some decent work and our Beaufighters manage to sink two APDs and damage a DD. One sub also torpedoed an xAP and perhaps we can sink some more over the next couple of turns.

The real question is what to do with my Amphibious force. My carriers will pull back and refuel, but my invasion convoy is unspotted one hex east of Cochin and is only 8 hexes from Colombo. However, john has CAs at Diego and I suspect he also has carriers there. I can continue with the op using my carriers and heavy LBA from Trivandrum as protection, or I can wait and see if John decides to charge forth from Diego after today's actions with his carriers (if they are there). He obviously doesn't want nav search out of Male, my closest base to Diego Garcia, as he bombards it every couple of turns to little effect. Which means he doesn't want me spotting whatever he has there if he sallies forth.

Options
1. Amphibious force pulls back to Calicut just north of Cochin, where it can wait and see if John moves anything from Diego while refueling back to 100%.
2. Continue on as we are only 8 hexes away, using LBA and carriers for protection now.

I think I'll sleep on it, though. No orders tonight.

[BBfanboy]

Definitely option 1. until you know for sure what John has in the area and where it is. Ask yourself worst case scenarios: in option 1 you delay a few days and his troops use up supply; in option 2 you lose a bunch of ships and troops that you might not be able to replace because of low pools and low rates of replenishment.

And congrats on a solid whack on the backside to the Japanese for having overstayed their welcome in Ceylon!
John always seems to forget that the Allies get lots of reinforcement and can concentrate them anywhere on the perimeter of his conquests.

[Anachro]

Next turn sees us finishing off the Hakozaki Maru or some Hakone-maru class xAP, which is worth 17 points and has a troop capacity of 3500. Interestingly, recon shows 28,000 troops at Trincomalee and it seems that John reinforced Ceylon instead of evacuating. This is confirmed by John's words. I'm not sure that it was worth reinforcing on his part. I have 4-5 divisions at or near 100% prep, plus various smaller units, tanks, artillery, and complete air superiority. He will lose men there. Diego Garcia will be recon'd pretty heavily over the next few days.

If I’d known that there were 33,000+ SS near the island, I might have led with some serious ASW. Lesson learned. Where are your Amphib Boys? They MUST be close… I got in first. We’ll see if it make a difference.

The Jack and George are CV Capable but you won’t be seeing them anytime soon. Jack is first and then George is late-44. Don’t see how they stand much chance of reversing the tide. Those Forum guys are nervous nellies and cry about a lot that they don’t know about. The only way to actually find out is…PLAY the Mod…I would say we will know by the late-44 if there is a serious difference. That’ll be the only way to know for sure! Until then, I am stuck with the A6M5…

Haven’t looked at your side since we started playing. Was shocked when I saw those damned Corsairs…

Really appreciate you playing this. I am getting a first hand experience in the Mod, playing it deep, and taking notes all along the way. Already, as I’ve said before, got a bunch of changes to do from our play so far.