Did You Know I Used to Drive a Rollercoaster?: Apbarog(A) vs OPilot(J)

[Lowpe]

China just looks so good! You have taken great care of it since day 1, and it shows.[&o]

I am very curious to how this plays out...if you reestablish supply to China do you plan on basing heavy bombers there?

Will you base heavy bombers out of Rangoon area? If yes, what will your targets be?

[Anachro]

I know all the veteran Japanese players like to bash on China and proclaim how easy it is to seal it up completely and take everything, but as someone who is just approaching it for the first time from the Japanese perspective, it's actually a lot more tricky at first glance. Certainly, it is no cakewalk. I'm sure as I learn more, it becomes easier, but I can well imagine that the designers thought China was well-balanced at first. If a Japanese player makes some mistakes and the Allied player is good, his advances can be stunted or halted entirely for awhile. New Japanese players are at great risk from this (and then they feel shame like me, as we hear how easy China is to ahistorically conquer).

[apbarog]

I do think that a veteran Japanese player can make a good run at conquering China. But a veteran Allied player can make it costly, costly in time, men and supply. In my game, from what I can tell, OPilot has reinforced China a bit, such as the tank division up in the north, but he hasn't made a huge commitment in new troops. He has, however, made a huge commitment in the number of aircraft used here, every day. This is part of a huge commitment in supply that he has made. He's had a couple of instances where he severely overstacked his troops, costing an untold amount of supply, and dooming a couple of huge attacks that he made. Several attacks for him have had disastrous results, and this slowed his advance. I was also lucky to anticipate the threat east and south of Sian, and was able to get the Chinese into key defensible-terrain hexes before he got there.

But the issue is still in doubt. Chinese supply has been critical for months. The Japanese could cut off far northern China by heading west from Ningsia.

I still feel like my defense is eggshell strong. There's not much reserves. A stronger push in the south would probably have succeeded. I had started moving reserves into the defensible terrain west of Changsha, contemplating collapsing the whole southern front. But OPilot didn't break through, and stopped trying. His efforts have mainly been up by Sian and the far north.

[apbarog]

22 Jan 43 - Part One - Coral Sea and Northern Australia

6 US APDs moved from Darwin to Wyndham to drop off supply in fast transport mode, dropping it off for the Australian unit at the enemy base. It looked like an amphibious landing during the replay, but it was just supply. It worked. This will help counter the daily losses to enemy bombers. I will try to LRCAP Wyndham from Katherine with P-38s today. The enemy bombers haven't been escorted lately. But it is a range 6 LRCAP, so I can't expect too much.

OPilot sent lots of land-based air to Port Moresby. 29 A6M3a Zeros swept, finding 23 P-39s and 17 P-40s. A couple of Zeros lost, while about 6 P-39s and 4 P-40s are downed. Then another 17 Zeros swept, with another couple of Zeros lost and about 4 P-39s. Then another 27 Zeros. About the same result. Then 45 Bettys hit the airfield, finding no CAP and causing heavy damage and destroying a B-26. Then 27 Bettys, and moderate damage. Then 22 more Zeros swept, from KB.

A couple of small Allied ships are sunk by KB bombers near Portland Roads and Horn Island. AM Whyalla is bombed and AMc Moa is torpedoed.

Here's the KB update map.

[apbarog]

22 Jan 43 - Part Two - Burma

Mostly supply and some bits of remaining troops unload at Port Blair. No more Allied attacks until regular naval bombardments are arranged, with rearming to take place at Rangoon. Troops and supply continue to unload at Pegu and Moulmein also.

A few enemy ships were scuttled in port yesterday when Rangoon was captured. That included AKEs. Others ran today but didn't escape. 2 Australian destroyers on ASW duty sank two patrol boats and 5 xAKLs leaving Rangoon.

23 B-24s and 11 B-17s hit Chiang Mai's airfield hard. The enemy had evacuated whatever aircraft that were there yesterday.

Elsewhere, Seawolf hit xAK Toba Maru with two torpedoes near Formosa. One hit was a dud. Off the north coast of Borneo, Dutch sub O19 hit small tanker Terukawa Maru with two torpedoes. One hit was a dud. The tanker was full of fuel, burned, and sank after combat.

Forgot to mention in Part One for today that the Kusaie invasion plan is tentatively back on, depending if KB passes west of Horn Island or not. Loading has begun at Suva for Kusaie.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: apbarog

I do think that a veteran Japanese player can make a good run at conquering China. But a veteran Allied player can make it costly, costly in time, men and supply. In my game, from what I can tell, OPilot has reinforced China a bit, such as the tank division up in the north, but he hasn't made a huge commitment in new troops. He has, however, made a huge commitment in the number of aircraft used here, every day. This is part of a huge commitment in supply that he has made. He's had a couple of instances where he severely overstacked his troops, costing an untold amount of supply, and dooming a couple of huge attacks that he made. Several attacks for him have had disastrous results, and this slowed his advance. I was also lucky to anticipate the threat east and south of Sian, and was able to get the Chinese into key defensible-terrain hexes before he got there.

But the issue is still in doubt. Chinese supply has been critical for months. The Japanese could cut off far northern China by heading west from Ningsia.

I still feel like my defense is eggshell strong. There's not much reserves. A stronger push in the south would probably have succeeded. I had started moving reserves into the defensible terrain west of Changsha, contemplating collapsing the whole southern front. But OPilot didn't break through, and stopped trying. His efforts have mainly been up by Sian and the far north.

+1

If Japan combines both 1st and 2nd Tank Divisions along with some heavy artillery....that spearhead is very, very difficult if not impossible to stop.

[apbarog]

23 Jan 43 - Part One - Northern Australia

S-32 fired 4 torpedoes at E Manazuru near Horn Island, part of the enemy AO task force moving west with KB. 3 AOs and 5 E's are spotted. Torpedoes missed and S-32 took minor damage in the shallow water.

42 Bettys bombed Port Moresby, finding no CAP. Moderate damage to the airfield with a F-4 recon and B-26 bomber destroyed. Port Moresby's airfield is now nearly closed down, but not quite. I moved fighters back in, hoping to catch bombers and maybe fewer escorts today.

24 Bettys with 27 Zeros hit Horn Island's port. Tiny AMc Cheribon is sunk. There's no CAP, but flak is rough on the Bettys, with about 6 downed. They flew at 6000 feet.

Bettys and Sallys bombed the Australians at Wyndham again, but found P-38Gs on LRCAP from Katherine, 6 hexes away. About 10 Bettys and 7 Sallys were downed. 3 more P-38 aces.

US bombers and fighters from Coen went after KB.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Horn Island at 89,127

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 56 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 23
A6M5 Zero x 57

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 25
SBD-3 Dauntless x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 9 destroyed
SBD-3 Dauntless: 9 destroyed

and

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Horn Island at 89,127

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 71 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 28 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 19
A6M5 Zero x 54

Allied aircraft
A-24 Banshee x 14
P-40K Warhawk x 24

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
A-24 Banshee: 9 destroyed
A-24 Banshee: 1 destroyed by flak
P-40K Warhawk: 3 destroyed

Japanese Ships
CV Shokaku

What could have been almost 90 dive bombers and 75 fighters turned into two smaller, fragmented strikes. Suicide runs. The only good thing to come of this is that the planes that didn't fly still exist. KB still has elite pilots, and with several of this type ofturkey shoot in the war, they just get better. The carrier battle, earlier in the war, where one Japanese carrier was sunk, did not deplete KB's fighter pilots.

Albacore was spotted by KB's task force and was hit by a depth charge in the shallow water. It's lucky to survive and will head to Normanton.

The strategy for today is to heavily CAP Darwin and not CAP Gove. Normanton has a small CAP with some ships running there for safety. KB could divert south a bit to hit Normanton and Gove, or move west and be within range of Darwin. I decided to protect Darwin. With enemy battleships now at Koepang, I expect them to get into range for a night run into Darwin. So I'm guessing that Darwin will not be bombarded during the daylight today. The bottom line is that the transports at Darwin are in trouble. Half were completely unloaded and those ships were disbanded into port. The other half should unload today.

Total air losses for today were 21 F4F-4s, 17 SBD-3s, 14 A-24s and 9 P-40Ks. 16 Bettys, 7 Sallys, 4 A6M5 Zeros (yes, the 5 model) and an Oscar.

[apbarog]

23 Jan 43 - Part Two - Burma

Supply and troops continue to unload. Transports that were carrying men and were unloading at Moulmein and Pegu are moving to Rangoon to finish unloading supply, if all of the men are unloaded first.

52 Sallys hit the 111th LRP Brigade again at Toungoo. I hope to surprise the bombers today with fighters moved to Toungoo, despite no air support there, yet.

US carriers will drift a bit west, not protecting any of the landing spots. Not sure if I'll move back to protect the next day. It may be wise to do so. OPilot could take my movement for leaving the area, and hit Rangoon or shipping. He has not done any direct attacks to far, fearing the carrier fighters.

Rangoon has over 100,000 supply now, all done amphibiously. More still to unload, and a big supply convoy in cargo mode will arrive today. Rangoon's port is still 100% damaged, and will be for a few days, at least. The airbase is slowly being repaired, but still has high damage to service and the runway.

A cruiser force has rearmed and refueled at Colombo and starts to head back to Port Blair. A couple more cruisers rearmed at Rangoon and will do the same. I want to start bombarding Port Blair as much as possible, with rearming at Rangoon.

[apbarog]

24 Jan 43 - Part One - Darwin

25 Lilys bombed undefended Dobo. OPilot noted that the fighter protection had left. Minor damage to the airfield. Can't worry about Dobo right now, with so much going on near Darwin.

In the morning, KB launches a big strike against shipping at Darwin.

Morning Air attack on TF, near Darwin at 76,124

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 156 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 78
B5N2 Kate x 42
D4Y1 Judy x 54

Allied aircraft
Spitfire Vc Trop x 15
P-38G Lightning x 7
P-39D Airacobra x 12
P-40E Warhawk x 13
P-40K Warhawk x 11
F4F-3 Wildcat x 7
F4F-4 Wildcat x 34

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 3 destroyed
B5N2 Kate: 4 destroyed, 2 damaged
D4Y1 Judy: 2 destroyed, 5 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
P-39D Airacobra: 1 destroyed
P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
DD Van Ghent, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Kortenaer, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
PT-68
xAK Tjikandi, Torpedo hits 1
DD Piet Hein
xAP Swartenhondt, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Banckert, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAP Poelau Bras, Bomb hits 1, on fire
xAK Siantar, Bomb hits 1, on fire
PT-67
xAK Tjikarang, Bomb hits 4, on fire

In the afternoon, another KB strike is launched.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Darwin at 76,124

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 134 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 57 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 64
B5N2 Kate x 34

Allied aircraft
Spitfire Vc Trop x 15
P-38G Lightning x 7
P-39D Airacobra x 10
P-40E Warhawk x 11
P-40K Warhawk x 11
F4F-3 Wildcat x 7
F4F-4 Wildcat x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 13 destroyed
B5N2 Kate: 8 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Spitfire Vc Trop: 1 destroyed
P-39D Airacobra: 2 destroyed
P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed
F4F-4 Wildcat: 1 damaged

Allied Ships
xAK Asphalion
DD Van Ghent

Some shipping is lost, but the enemy pays a price. Total air losses were 45 Kates, 29 A6M3a Zeros and 3 Judys, for the cost of 7 F4F-4s, 4 P-39s and 3 P-40Es. The Spitfires were noted to have performed exceptionally well. Australian WO Warrick, flying a Spit at Darwin, shot down 5 aircraft and became an "Ace in a Day".

Elsewhere in the Pacific, Growler spotted a big transport task force southeast of Saipan. 7 true AKs are spotted, along with 4 xAPs and a DD. 2 torpedoes are fired at AK Sado Maru. One hit, causing heavy damage. No troops are loaded.

[jdsrae]

Great stuff, WO Warrick just earnt himself a DFM!

[apbarog]

24 Jan 43 - Part Two - Burma

Unloading continues at all of the landing spots. Significant numbers of empty transports are grouping up and starting to head back to Ceylon.

Near Rangoon, I-155 spots heavy cruiser New Orleans and hits her with a torpedo. New Orleans is SYS 13/FLOT 32-16/ENG 24-15/FIRE 0 and heads to Rangoon and disbands there. The other heavy cruiser in the task force proceeds closer to Port Blair, still on the bombardment mission, and now going without any destroyers. An enemy sub at the location of I-155 took several bomb hits from a B-25 and a couple of SBDs.

Allied medium bombers hit Taung Gyi and found Oscars there today. 10 Wellingtons and 7 B-25s were lost. Wellingtons usually get the milk run missions, but it wasn't today. B-17s hit Chiang Mai. Others hit Akyab, finding 25 Oscars. Minor damage was done to the airfield and a couple of enemy planes were destroyed on the ground. Bigger effort at Akyab for today.

A-20A1 Havocs attacked enemy troops at Bassein near Rangoon, swooping down to strafe, but found 13 Oscars there. Results were very good, with 121 casualties, on troops moving north. Then a squadron of SBDs with F4Fs arrived, doing minor damage to the troops and losing a few Wildcats to the Oscars still there.

B-24s hit Port Blair's port, getting a bomb hit on I-156, causing a massive explosion.

Back at Darwin, it's worth noting that Major W.E. Dyess got 2 more kills in his P-40K, upping his total to a league leading 14.

[zuluhour]

+1

from my perspective as well.....I don't think IJ played China methodically though with a master plan. You
appear ready to counter movers he never made. 2 cents and an informative AAR.

[Bif1961]

Why not use yours carriers to strike Port Blair on the way out and support the attack there, it won't deviate you from heading for Ceylon and might help the Port Blair attack.

[apbarog]

Yes, I will be bombing Port Blair with carrier planes. I may do so with a forward deployment, protecting Port Blair from the southwest. I think that it would be good to at least show that type of setup, and keep the enemy further away and less likely to run surface ships in. I've also considered a raid of Georgetown, where I had SigInt that there was at least one AKE.

I do want to get the carriers back to the Pacific, though. Once Port Blair is taken, the situation may allow that. Rangoon is now over 120,000 supply, and I haven't unloaded a big task force in Cargo mode yet. The port is still 100% damaged. I plan on running as much supply into Rangoon as fast as I can, so that no matter how the enemy reacts after US carriers leave, including sending KB, the troops near Rangoon will be self sufficient.

[apbarog]

25 Jan 43 - Part One - Darwin

[BBfanboy]

East from Gove to Pt. Hedland? That base is west of Broome! Did you mean east to Portland Roads (or whatever that base S of Horn Island is called)?

[apbarog]

Yes, meant Portland Roads. My mistake, got my ports mixed up.

[apbarog]

25 Jan 43 - Part Two - Burma

More supply unloading at all of the landing locations. Rangoon now has 171,000 supply. Allied sub-laid mines at Victoria Point are found immediately by an E boat. A US DM also just laid some mines north of there, in the shallows.

US cruisers Pensacola, Chicago and Indianapolis bombard Port Blair. About 300 casualties total, and some damage to the airfield and port. I-156, in port, is hit by a shell and set on fire.

Toungoo is swept by 39 Oscars, which find 13 Hurris and 21 Warhawks. East of Moulmein, over the advancing Chinese, 41 Tojos sweep, finding 10 Hurris and 17 F4F-4s. The Tojos do an excellent job. It's rough dealing with so many of them. Older models aircraft are outmatched. 27 Sallys with 24 Nicks then bomb the Chinese there, causing 63 casualties in the jungle.

Heavy bombers hit Akyab's airfield and port, doing very minor damage. I-153 is hit by 2 bombs in port and sinks. After the many bombers hit, the P-38s sweep, and find no Oscars still on CAP.

Total air losses for the day are 20 Oscars, 3 Sallys, 2 Tojos and a Lily for the cost of 15 Hurris, 14 F4F-4s, 4 P-40Ks, 4 B-24s and a B-17.

Enemy armor at Toungoo decided to attack the Indian paratroopers at Toungoo, but finds a surprise, one that just railed into town.

Ground combat at Toungoo (57,50)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 384 troops, 0 guns, 71 vehicles, Assault Value = 40

Defending force 30341 troops, 393 guns, 329 vehicles, Assault Value = 1072

Japanese adjusted assault: 21

Allied adjusted defense: 955

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 45 (fort level 0)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), op mode(-), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 24 (4 destroyed, 20 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
47 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
6th Tank Regiment

Defending units:
32nd Infantry Division
16th Australian Brigade
3rd Carabiniers Regiment
18th British Division
111th LRP Brigade
2/13th Fld RAA Regiment

Allied troops try again at Port Blair, and get miserable odds but not disastrous losses.

Ground combat at Port Blair (46,58)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 12487 troops, 175 guns, 94 vehicles, Assault Value = 271

Defending force 7074 troops, 50 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 131

Allied adjusted assault: 32

Japanese adjusted defense: 713

Allied assault odds: 1 to 22 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker: fatigue(-)

Japanese ground losses:
352 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
590 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 47 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Assaulting units:
147th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
24th (Sep) Infantry Regiment
17th Australian Brigade
2/1st Lt AA Regiment
111th RN Base Force

Defending units:
1st Raiding Regiment
41st Infantry Regiment
34th Field Const Co
303rd Ship Eng Coy
1st Base Force
302nd Ship Eng Coy
5th JAAF AF Coy

And the Chinese push east of Moulmein.

Ground combat at 56,56 (near Moulmein)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 17565 troops, 134 guns, 171 vehicles, Assault Value = 730

Defending force 1437 troops, 11 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 41

Allied adjusted assault: 464

Japanese adjusted defense: 5

Allied assault odds: 92 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), morale(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
956 casualties reported
Squads: 82 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 17 destroyed, 16 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 7 (5 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Units retreated 1

Allied ground losses:
90 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
6th Chinese/B Corps
50th Tank Brigade
6th Chinese/C Corps
209th Field Artillery Battalion

Defending units:
6th RTA/C Division

[jwolf]

It's ironic that Port Blair is proving to be so difficult, when you got the big targets at and near Rangoon almost for free. Kudos for really great planning -- and a little bit of luck -- combining for what appears to be total strategic surprise.

Might the Japanese continue to move KB all the way to Singapore (rearm) and then into the Andaman Sea area for disruption into your operations there?

[apbarog]

Port Blair is my own doing. I didn't allocate armor or artillery, just infantry. I thought it would be easier to take. I also thought that it was a necessary prerequisite for moving on Rangoon, but it turned out not to be. If KB had been around, it would have been much more important.

Speaking of which, jwolf, yes, KB could be making its way to Singapore. I think that OPilot now realizes the problems he has in Burma now. The carriers are about the only way to strike back, until massive amounts of troops can move up from Thailand and counter in the Moulmein area.

I'm planning on moving my carriers back to the Pacific when I think the Burma operation is safe, regardless of what KB does.