The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

I see that CR is cool with your HR, so that's the important thing. How goes the war?

Cheers,
CB

The endgame is a long drawn out series of disappointments, but at least I feel good about still forcing some supply, fuel and resources back through to the Home Islands at this stage.

The air war in China has been tough on the Allies, but I'm now inevitably running short on supply, and I'll have to pick my spots to try to intercede in the constant milk runs on Shanghai and Hnagchow. No troops moving their direction yet though. No attempts to take anything in the South either after the Nanning pullout.

He seems focused on Luzon now, which is fine.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]August 3, 1945[/font]

---

A DD raider hits a big convoy near Iwo Jima, but Grace's from that base hit back later, putting it in jeopardy. I'll try to end it with some FP strikes tomorrow if possible. The Allies sink a gaggle of little PBs and xAKL in Balikpapan with a small night strike.

Manila is attacked and will falll soon.
[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Aug 3, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Time Surface Combat, near Haha-jima at 112,78, Range 7,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
E No.134, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
PB Wa 9, Shell hits 10, and is sunk
PB Kyo Maru #3
PB Rokko Maru, Shell hits 1
PB Kaiun Maru, Shell hits 7, on fire
xAK Borneo Maru
xAK Italy Maru
xAK Karachi Maru
xAK Victoria Maru
xAK Eihuku Maru
xAK Gokoku Maru #2
xAK Keihuku Maru
xAK Kinkai Maru
xAK Midori Maru
xAK Nagato Maru
xAK Nikki Maru
xAK Sinsei Maru
xAK Tohuku Maru
xAK Ume Maru, Shell hits 4
xAK Kuwayama Maru
xAK Hokumai Maru
xAK Kyokusei Maru

Allied Ships
DD Vesole

Reduced sighting due to 21% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 21% moonlight: 4,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Balikpapan , at 64,97

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 8

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
PB Magane Maru, Bomb hits 1
PB Kunitu Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
PB Kamitu Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
xAKL Raizan Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Tateyama Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
PB Hakata Maru #2, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
SC CHa-1, Bomb hits 1, heavy damage
PB Akagane Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
SC CHa-3, Bomb hits 1, heavy damage
PB Nagato Maru, Bomb hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
PB Kamitsu Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Honan Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Kokuei Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage

Port hits 5
Port fuel hits 2

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet
Port Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Haha-jima at 112,78

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 31 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B7A2 Grace x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
B7A2 Grace: 2 destroyed, 3 damaged

Allied Ships
DD Vesole, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires

Aircraft Attacking:
18 x B7A2 Grace releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
3 x B7A2 Grace releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
4 x B7A2 Grace releasing from 10000'
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring DD Vesole
Banzai! - Hirano E. in a B7A2 Grace is willing to die for the Emperor
Banzai! - Kurihara O. in a B7A2 Grace is willing to die for the Emperor

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Lingga at 50,87

Japanese Ships
E No.40

Allied Ships
SS Statesman, hits 24, heavy damage

SS Statesman is sighted by escort
E No.40 fails to find sub, continues to search...
E No.40 attacking submerged sub ....
Debris floats to surface in area of attack!
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 12678 troops, 82 guns, 1352 vehicles, Assault Value = 848

Defending force 14899 troops, 75 guns, 69 vehicles, Assault Value = 215

Allied adjusted assault: 305

Japanese adjusted defense: 291

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 6)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 5

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), preparation(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3387 casualties reported
Squads: 70 destroyed, 125 disabled
Non Combat: 33 destroyed, 63 disabled
Engineers: 31 destroyed, 18 disabled
Guns lost 42 (13 destroyed, 29 disabled)
Vehicles lost 8 (3 destroyed, 5 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Allied ground losses:
9 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 30 (1 destroyed, 29 disabled)

Assaulting units:
711th Tank Battalion
2/4th Armoured Regiment
3rd USMC Tank Bn /2
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
2/6th Armoured Rgt /1
670th Tank Destroyer Battalion
44th Tank Battalion
2nd USMC Amphb Tank Battalion
706th Tank Bn /2
815th Towed Tank Destroyer Battalion
6th USMC Tank Battalion
4th USMC Tank Bn /2

Defending units:
43rd Naval Guard Unit
21st Ind. Engr Rgt /2
41st Naval Guard Unit
1st South Seas Det.
88th Nav Gd /4
8th Garrison Unit /2
7th JNAF AF Unit
87th JAAF AF Bn
79th JAAF AF Bn /1
8th JAAF AF Coy
35th Const Co /2
14th JAAF AF Bn
9th JNAF Coy
9th Fleet
19th Army
83rd Nav Gd /2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/color][/font] Lots of Soviets moving around. It looks like nothing is coming directly from the Vlad area yet. Fighters have disappeared. No air action at all up here.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: obvert




What do you base that on?

There's no ability for the Allies to close airbases during the night phase, except by naval bombardment.

He hasn't tried night bombing fields regularly before this? How would he have known it wouldn't work,

Can't really comment without disclosing a discussion in his AAR.

and why does limiting bombing on one base affect the overall damage done?

As that one base might be important to close for a tactical or strategic goal.

More importantly, having 10% damage on ten bases makes a trivial impact on air operations. 100% damamge stops air operations.

It's also far quicker for ten bases to repair 10% damage than one base to repair 100% damage.

He can still use multiple targets or large raids with multiple types of target in one base.

See above.

You have no evidence for this claim and it's a bit ridiculous. This rule is keeping me going?

It's meaning that you need to have minimal consideration for the night phase attacks on non-strategic targets. With a max of 50 planes attacking any given airbase at night, you can min-max IJ air deployments. Airbases aren't being close by night raids, you're not having to counteract the night bombing fatigue/morale spirals, or having to relocate squadrons in anticipation of night raids.

In short, it's made B-29s have very little flexiblity, giving them a binary choice:

- fly at night at (well defended) strategic targets en-mass and suffer accordingly.
- fly in small numbers at airbases and fail to inflict lasting damage.

At the very least, upping the minimum to 100 or 150 would give CR the ability to keep you honest (not in the literal sense) with night CAP and inflict some serious punishment for improper or insufficent planning.

IMO that has really stalled CR's ability to degrade IJ air power. YMMV

You continue to avoid actually providing any evidence, citing any parts of this actual game, or doing anything to support what you're saying over and over and over

How many squadrons have you on night CAP over bases with little or no industry?

What percentage as a whole of your IJ air force is on night CAP?

How many large size 9 airbases host a large number of IJ aircraft> And you expect 50 bombers to make a significant impact on those bases?

I'll warrant that your responses will be interesting. And that's the evidence of the adverse effects of your HR. Unintended, no doubt, but still there.

At the same time you completely ignore all of the points I've made, reasonably and thoughtfully, to defend my position. It's not a winning strategy for convincing someone what you think is the correct course! [;)]

I've address points as you've raised them. You obviously have no intention of changing the HR, and that's fine. I just want to highlight that what started out as an attempt to limit the perceived issues with night bombing has ended up having an unfair outcome.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I've address points as you've raised them. You obviously have no intention of changing the HR, and that's fine. I just want to highlight that what started out as an attempt to limit the perceived issues with night bombing has ended up having an unfair outcome.

As a teacher I often use strategies called constructive constraints. They don't block action, they force people to react and come up with new and creative solutions to the situation.

There's more than one way to skin a cat.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

How many squadrons have you on night CAP over bases with little or no industry?

I have an 18 plane NF group in China to guard Hankow. That's it!

There is actually some industry there, and it's a sub base on the river.

What percentage as a whole of your IJ air force is on night CAP?

I only use the NF on night CAP. No day F or FP. So it's a smallish percentage of the whole.

Looks like 528 NF flying CAP out of a total of 10,582. So roughly 4.7%.

How many large size 9 airbases host a large number of IJ aircraft> And you expect 50 bombers to make a significant impact on those bases?

What is a large number of aircraft at this stage? Tokyo and Osaka have large concentrations (~850 and ~1,000 respectively) due to their increased defenses to protect industry. I place a lot of the training groups there to shield them as well, but some are in other big bases like Kobe, Yokohama and Hiroshima. Hiroshima is ~600, Yokohama ~500, and three more above 300. So about seven that are large, but the defensive CAP s spread as evenly as I can get it in order to utilize the low CAP tactic as efficiently as possible. It actually has a threshold above which is doesn't work as well, so I try to keep CAP numbers below 300, and usually more like 200-250 in bigger bases.

When he's attacked them they have made a significant dent. Ominato has been struck repeatedly, as has Nagasaki. The attacks are sporadic and not well coordinated with day strikes though so far.

His day strikes can also break through my CAP and do a positive amount of damage where there are concentrations of planes. This is inevitable at this stage of the war. I've actually disbanded about 1/4 of the training groups so far to avoid excess losses of non-essential airframes and I'm planning to disband many more once the pilots in them now are trained.

I'll warrant that your responses will be interesting. And that's the evidence of the adverse effects of your HR. Unintended, no doubt, but still there.

You see it as adverse, and that any limits on Allied bombing at night are unfair. The major difference in our opinion is that I see a limitation on night bombing for both sides as a method of ensuring fairness for each at different points in the war.

[mind_messing]

I have an 18 plane NF group in China to guard Hankow. That's it!

There is actually some industry there, and it's a sub base on the river.

So you're essentially neglecting the night air phase outside of major industrial centres.

You should be punished for that through large night bombing strikes of your undefended airbases, not by penny packets of 50.

I only use the NF on night CAP. No day F or FP. So it's a smallish percentage of the whole.

Looks like 528 NF flying CAP out of a total of 10,582. So roughly 4.7%.

Again, this is the consequence of your HR's. The night phase simply isn't getting used, enabling you to min-max your air force for the day phase.

That really shouldn't be happening at this late stage of the game, especially not with current Allied assets. More on this in a bit.

What is a large number of aircraft at this stage? Tokyo and Osaka have large concentrations (~850 and ~1,000 respectively) due to their increased defenses to protect industry. I place a lot of the training groups there to shield them as well, but some are in other big bases like Kobe, Yokohama and Hiroshima. Hiroshima is ~600, Yokohama ~500, and three more above 300. So about seven that are large, but the defensive CAP s spread as evenly as I can get it in order to utilize the low CAP tactic as efficiently as possible. It actually has a threshold above which is doesn't work as well, so I try to keep CAP numbers below 300, and usually more like 200-250 in bigger bases.

When he's attacked them they have made a significant dent. Ominato has been struck repeatedly, as has Nagasaki. The attacks are sporadic and not well coordinated with day strikes though so far.

His day strikes can also break through my CAP and do a positive amount of damage where there are concentrations of planes. This is inevitable at this stage of the war. I've actually disbanded about 1/4 of the training groups so far to avoid excess losses of non-essential airframes and I'm planning to disband many more once the pilots in them now are trained.

This feeds into my dispersion versus concentration arguement. You're able to concentrate such large numbers of aircraft at a few select bases with CR unable to strike the airbases with anything near the force to attain an advantage in the air.

He'd have better luck in the day phase if the night phase actually required some investment on your part in order to provide a sufficient defence. That would require balancing day/night commitments without the solid knowledge that you'll face at most 50 planes attacking any given airbase in the night phase.

You see it as adverse, and that any limits on Allied bombing at night are unfair. The major difference in our opinion is that I see a limitation on night bombing for both sides as a method of ensuring fairness for each at different points in the war.

It's not remotely fair, as the capabilities of each side are vastly different.

- Japan simply lacks an effective night bomber airframe. There is no long-range, high durability airframe with a large bombload and radar.

- On the other hand, a significant portion of the late-war Allied OOB consists of heavy bombers, with long range and exceptional bomb loads, equipped with radar and specifically intended to be used at night.

Fundamentally, it's not ensuring fairness.

It's ensuring that your airbases don't get wrecked and you can forget about night CAP more or less completely.

Additionally, your comment about fairness at different points of the war doesn't hold true. On Dec 7th, capabilities for night bombing are roughly similar. As the war progresses, that changes as heavier Allied planes with more bombs and better radar start to arrive. Japanese airframes don't develop along those lines. To deny the Allies that advantage that was inherent in the design of the game is unfair.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I have an 18 plane NF group in China to guard Hankow. That's it!

There is actually some industry there, and it's a sub base on the river.

So you're essentially neglecting the night air phase outside of major industrial centres.

You should be punished for that through large night bombing strikes of your undefended airbases, not by penny packets of 50.

[/quote]
There is a lot you choose to ignore or just don't know because you haven't played this particular game for seven years. I am not ignoring, I'm accepting night bombing losses in areas outside the Home Islands in order to maximize protection of industry (including Home Islands airfields that base fighters that protect industry).

The NF are on the Home Islands for these reasons and there are only about 3-4% of my total number of planes outside the Home Islands!!

There is nothing to punish. [;)]
[/quote]

I only use the NF on night CAP. No day F or FP. So it's a smallish percentage of the whole.

Looks like 528 NF flying CAP out of a total of 10,582. So roughly 4.7%.

ORIGINAL: mind_messing
Again, this is the consequence of your HR's. The night phase simply isn't getting used, enabling you to min-max your air force for the day phase.

That really shouldn't be happening at this late stage of the game, especially not with current Allied assets. More on this in a bit.

Again, wrong. I Never use day fighters at night, and this is a choice. It doesn't return a good VP ratio. This is a defensive game, period. I've planned for it, played it through for this outcome, and these rules have been involved for the whole duration. You're missing so many possible tactics in your preaching about the night bombing HR. It's really boring.

On top of that I've talked to Dan about it days ago after your first notes and he doesn't want to change the rule. So what are you still on about? [&:]

What is a large number of aircraft at this stage? Tokyo and Osaka have large concentrations (~850 and ~1,000 respectively) due to their increased defenses to protect industry. I place a lot of the training groups there to shield them as well, but some are in other big bases like Kobe, Yokohama and Hiroshima. Hiroshima is ~600, Yokohama ~500, and three more above 300. So about seven that are large, but the defensive CAP s spread as evenly as I can get it in order to utilize the low CAP tactic as efficiently as possible. It actually has a threshold above which is doesn't work as well, so I try to keep CAP numbers below 300, and usually more like 200-250 in bigger bases.

When he's attacked them they have made a significant dent. Ominato has been struck repeatedly, as has Nagasaki. The attacks are sporadic and not well coordinated with day strikes though so far.

His day strikes can also break through my CAP and do a positive amount of damage where there are concentrations of planes. This is inevitable at this stage of the war. I've actually disbanded about 1/4 of the training groups so far to avoid excess losses of non-essential airframes and I'm planning to disband many more once the pilots in them now are trained.

This feeds into my dispersion versus concentration arguement. You're able to concentrate such large numbers of aircraft at a few select bases with CR unable to strike the airbases with anything near the force to attain an advantage in the air.

He'd have better luck in the day phase if the night phase actually required some investment on your part in order to provide a sufficient defence. That would require balancing day/night commitments without the solid knowledge that you'll face at most 50 planes attacking any given airbase in the night phase.

Again. No. I only have a few baes to use, and I spread fighters as evenly as I can as stated above. The bases with more aircraft have almost the same number of fighters (as I mentioned) and the other planes are training, and bombers not bombing. Read my post before your next diatribe, please.

It's also just silly to imagine I wouldn't add a few more on Tokyo and Osaka.

You see it as adverse, and that any limits on Allied bombing at night are unfair. The major difference in our opinion is that I see a limitation on night bombing for both sides as a method of ensuring fairness for each at different points in the war.

It's not remotely fair, as the capabilities of each side are vastly different.

- Japan simply lacks an effective night bomber airframe. There is no long-range, high durability airframe with a large bombload and radar.

- On the other hand, a significant portion of the late-war Allied OOB consists of heavy bombers, with long range and exceptional bomb loads, equipped with radar and specifically intended to be used at night.

Fundamentally, it's not ensuring fairness.

It's ensuring that your airbases don't get wrecked and you can forget about night CAP more or less completely.

Additionally, your comment about fairness at different points of the war doesn't hold true. On Dec 7th, capabilities for night bombing are roughly similar. As the war progresses, that changes as heavier Allied planes with more bombs and better radar start to arrive. Japanese airframes don't develop along those lines. To deny the Allies that advantage that was inherent in the design of the game is unfair.

Your interpretation is so funny. And the way you use the word fair. [&o][:D]

Each side has its advantages. Early the advantages conferred by night bombing results in game could help to reduce expert pilot losses, gain morale and fatigue against entrenched and maxed airfield positions to be further exploited in the day phase, and to ensure big ports like Singers cannot then become a haven for Allied surface combatants.

I'm also playing late war Allies against an opponent with no HRs. He's maxed virtually all of his fighter and NF groups I'm sure. I know he's got virtually every good late war airframe producing in mass numbers. He's researching jets. I love it! What a challenge to face.

I choose to limit my night bombing in that game. That to me is fair. I'll still be able to inflict losses on his big bases. I'll find a way, because that's the fun of it. [:)]

[mind_messing]

There is a lot you choose to ignore or just don't know because you haven't played this particular game for seven years. I am not ignoring, I'm accepting night bombing losses in areas outside the Home Islands in order to maximize protection of industry (including Home Islands airfields that base fighters that protect industry).

The NF are on the Home Islands for these reasons and there are only about 3-4% of my total number of planes outside the Home Islands!!

There is nothing to punish.

In which case, it's an even worse situation for the Allied, given that the only option to impact IJ air power in favourable circumstances generated by night bombing is by using 50 a paltry 50 bombers.

Again, wrong. I Never use day fighters at night, and this is a choice. It doesn't return a good VP ratio. This is a defensive game, period. I've planned for it, played it through for this outcome, and these rules have been involved for the whole duration. You're missing so many possible tactics in your preaching about the night bombing HR. It's really boring.

Using day fighters at night should not be a choice for you, in this time frame and given Allied assets. It should be a hard balancing act of fighter squadrons between day and night phases to mount an effective resistance to Allied bombers.

The fact that you're able to make the choice to simply not divert any daytime fighter assets to night CAP should tell you all you need to know about the unintended impact of your HR's.

Given my ignorance of air tactics, please enlighten me.

On top of that I've talked to Dan about it days ago after your first notes and he doesn't want to change the rule. So what are you still on about?

In short, HR's are bad and promote sloppy play. That's about as snappy as I can make it.

This HR more than most makes the late-game air war exceptionally hard for the Allies to wear down a large and robust IJ air force.

Again. No. I only have a few baes to use, and I spread fighters as evenly as I can as stated above. The bases with more aircraft have almost the same number of fighters (as I mentioned) and the other planes are training, and bombers not bombing. Read my post before your next diatribe, please.

It's also just silly to imagine I wouldn't add a few more on Tokyo and Osaka.

You've made the point for me. Should the late-game air war degenerate into the IJ air force spreading a critical mass of fighters evenly over Japan? You'd get a far more dynamic air war without HR's.

Your interpretation is so funny. And the way you use the word fair.

Evidently you consider a rule that impacts one side much more severely than the other to be fair. That's absolutely fine, but I think it just ain't so.

Each side has its advantages.

Nope, just the Allies really. They get the big, durable, radar equipped bombers as the war progresses.

Early the advantages conferred by night bombing results in game could help to reduce expert pilot losses, gain morale and fatigue against entrenched and maxed airfield positions to be further exploited in the day phase, and to ensure big ports like Singers cannot then become a haven for Allied surface combatants.

[/quote]

Emphasis mine. Please provide an example of IJ night bombing that you could consider remotely equivalent to the same numbers of B-29s attacking a target.

IJ simply cannot conduct night operations as effectively as the Allies can. I think what's annoying me most is that you're insisting that this is fair and equally effects both sides, when in fact it doesn't. On Dec 7th, both sides have equal capability to night bomb tactical targets (IJ have a small edge due to pilot quality) but over the course of the game Allied capabilities skyrocket. Your HR's are throttling Allied capabilities far, far more than Japanese, and that just isn't fair.

If you and CR are cool with it, that's great. For other games, I'd suggest you don't insist on that HR, you'll have a better game for it.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing
In short, HR's are bad and promote sloppy play. That's about as snappy as I can make it.

In short, you're wrong for everyone but yourself.

Not a snappy or witty or even relevant observation. They don't promote sloppy play-they promote reasoned approaches to gaming. Try not to paint people with too broad a brush-it's unbecoming.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: mind_messing
In short, HR's are bad and promote sloppy play. That's about as snappy as I can make it.

In short, you're wrong for everyone but yourself.

Not a snappy or witty or even relevant observation. They don't promote sloppy play-they promote reasoned approaches to gaming. Try not to paint people with too broad a brush-it's unbecoming.

I disagree wholeheartedly. All the common HR's stem from difficulties of players to adapt their playstyle.

The "no strategic bombing before X" date HR's stem from players that can't (or rather don't want) to make proper preparations and investments into defending strategic targets before a certain date.

The rules restricting 4E useage stem from Japanese players that can't adapt to generate effective trades with 4E aircraft.

The altitude band rule seems to be fading away, guess why? Players were able to adapt using low-layered CAP to provide an effective counter to stratosweeps. We'd have never seen that progression if that HR was in effect every game.

The key point is that HR's are posted to address perceived issues with the game. IMO those issues are massively overblown.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: mind_messing
In short, HR's are bad and promote sloppy play. That's about as snappy as I can make it.

In short, you're wrong for everyone but yourself.

Not a snappy or witty or even relevant observation. They don't promote sloppy play-they promote reasoned approaches to gaming. Try not to paint people with too broad a brush-it's unbecoming.

I disagree wholeheartedly. All the common HR's stem from difficulties of players to adapt their playstyle.

Yes. You've made your increasingly strident points abundantly clear. And you're still wrong. For everybody but yourself. Enjoy the game your way and have a great day!

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

[font="Times New Roman"]August 3, 1945[/font]

---

A DD raider hits a big convoy near Iwo Jima, but Grace's from that base hit back later, putting it in jeopardy. I'll try to end it with some FP strikes tomorrow if possible. The Allies sink a gaggle of little PBs and xAKL in Balikpapan with a small night strike.

To my mind, there is no reason for the Allies to use a single destroyer raider. For crying out loud use at least 2.[;)]

I am kind of shocked there wasn't some float plane attacks on it however!

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert

[font="Times New Roman"]August 3, 1945[/font]

---

A DD raider hits a big convoy near Iwo Jima, but Grace's from that base hit back later, putting it in jeopardy. I'll try to end it with some FP strikes tomorrow if possible. The Allies sink a gaggle of little PBs and xAKL in Balikpapan with a small night strike.

To my mind, there is no reason for the Allies to use a single destroyer raider. For crying out loud use at least 2.[;)]

I am kind of shocked there wasn't some float plane attacks on it however!

I know. I assumed it would go East but it may have retired to the Kuriles and out of range.

He often does use two, but sometimes just one. I've been able to see them at times, but usually one can get past search to get in close. A week or so ago he used four together and those got nailed.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]August 4-5, 1945[/font]

---

The Allies take Manila. The T-34 brigades break the Japanese border defense to shreds. No sign of the Soviet Air Force. Singers continues to take a pounding while taking a toll in return with flak hits. The DS moves into the South China Sea. Picking up troops to go around the Nanning blockade in China?

The raider disappears for now. Either hit harder than I thought and sunk, or skedaddled.

Virtually nothing new on the 5th. Trying to bomb Soviet bases but so far weather isn't cooperating.
[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Aug 4, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on Voroshilov , at 112,45

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 27 NM, estimated altitude 42,530 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 47

No Japanese losses

Aircraft Attacking:
47 x Ki-83 sweeping at 41530 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 74 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 21 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-25D Mitchell x 6
P-51D Mustang x 3
Corsair IV x 15
Thunderbolt II x 8
Wellington GR.XIII x 5
A-20G Havoc x 3
B-24J Liberator x 36
B-25J1 Mitchell x 4
B-25J11 Mitchell x 12
P-38L Lightning x 17

Allied aircraft losses
Wellington GR.XIII: 1 damaged
Wellington GR.XIII: 1 destroyed by flak
A-20G Havoc: 3 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 7 damaged
B-25J1 Mitchell: 1 damaged
B-25J11 Mitchell: 3 damaged
B-25J11 Mitchell: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese ground losses:
21 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Airbase hits 3
Runway hits 21

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x B-25D Mitchell bombing from 11000 feet
Airfield Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 17874 troops, 82 guns, 1639 vehicles, Assault Value = 892

Defending force 11788 troops, 63 guns, 66 vehicles, Assault Value = 47

Allied adjusted assault: 600

Japanese adjusted defense: 83

Allied assault odds: 7 to 1 (fort level 5)

Allied forces CAPTURE Manila !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
2895 casualties reported
Squads: 141 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 127 destroyed, 195 disabled
Engineers: 25 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 47 (20 destroyed, 27 disabled)
Vehicles lost 49 (46 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Units destroyed 5

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 12 (1 destroyed, 11 disabled)

Assaulting units:
706th Tank Battalion
4th USMC Tank Battalion
6th USMC Tank Battalion
3rd USMC Tank Battalion
44th Tank Battalion
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
711th Tank Battalion
815th Towed Tank Destroyer Battalion
2/4th Armoured Regiment
2nd USMC Amphb Tank Battalion
670th Tank Destroyer Battalion
2/6th Armoured Regiment

Defending units:
1st South Seas Det.
9th Fleet
88th Nav Gd /4
14th JAAF AF Bn
8th JAAF AF Coy
8th Garrison Unit /2
9th JNAF Coy
7th JNAF AF Unit
35th Const Co /2
19th Army
41st Naval Guard Unit
43rd Naval Guard Unit
79th JAAF AF Bn /1
87th JAAF AF Bn
83rd Nav Gd /2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Mishan (114,42)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 17988 troops, 90 guns, 1170 vehicles, Assault Value = 665

Defending force 2433 troops, 61 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 44

Allied adjusted assault: 414

Japanese adjusted defense: 11

Allied assault odds: 37 to 1 (fort level 1)

Allied forces CAPTURE Mishan !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: op mode(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
985 casualties reported
Squads: 47 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 40 disabled
Engineers: 13 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 47 (38 destroyed, 9 disabled)
Units retreated 1

Allied ground losses:
13 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
76th Tank Brigade
75th Tank Brigade
72nd Tank Brigade
77th Tank Brigade
259th Tank Brigade

Defending units:
12th Border Defense Fortress
135th Field Artillery Regiment

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/color][/font]

[obvert]

I miss the olden days, when a myriad of players would chime into a subject with actual evidence, varied opinions, and mostly respectful dialogue around an issue in game. There was enough weight to the knowledge of certain members then that it brought extremes of behavior closer to the center and resulted in a really profitable discussion.

Here are some threads on the subject that's dominated the recent portion of this AAR. Lots of the same thing I've been mentioning, and a lot of what mind-messing has countered with, but with a lot of evidence for one very well tested understanding; night bombing was ridiculously unsuccessful in targeting areas smaller than a city. (There were exceptions in rare and small samples, often very late in the war and still tenuous as to actual effectiveness in closing airfields or destroying airframes).

I'm confident mind_messing will find something to support his claims that I'm a lazy player who is behaving unfairly by not offering to remove an HR my opponent has stated he doesn't want removed.

I found a lot of evidence to support the claim that night bombing of airfields and ports are areas where many players have thought it useful to either self-apply restraint or limit both sides with an HR.

I find the discussions enthralling and some of these forum members much missed. [:(]

---

Night Bombing Overpowered? (2011)

Is Night Air Combat Broken? (2013)

Night Bombing of Airfields (2013)

Night Bombing (2013)

---

The effects of weather, moonlight and defensive capability at night are not well modeled in game:

[font="Trebuchet MS"]Well, put it this way: In 1941, the Butt Report on the accuracy of Bomber Command concluded as follows:

Any examination of night photographs taken during night bombing in June and July points to the following conclusions:

1.Of those aircraft recorded as attacking their target, only one in three got within 5 miles [(8 kilometres)].
2.Over the French ports, the proportion was two in three; over Germany as a whole, the proportion was one in four; over the Ruhr it was only one in ten.
3.In the full moon, the proportion was two in five; in the new moon it was only one in fifteen. ...

All these figures relate only to aircraft recorded as attacking the target; the proportion of the total sorties which reached within 5 miles is less than one-third. ...
The conclusion seems to follow that only about one-third of aircraft claiming to reach their target actually reached it.

Now this was based upon crewman extensively trained for night operations. So how likely is it that a day bomber force choosing to attack at night can even find, much less hit, an airfield in the jungle?

Now it you ask about how well the system models night attacks by B29s bombing cities with a really good radar (for the time), the answer seems to be it models it pretty well. If you ask about any other a/c (especailly Japanese a/c) attacking LAND targets at night, IMHO the answer is the model sucks big time. Note that the model does pretty well reflecting the performance of trained JNAF crews attacking ships at night [/font]
[/color]

---

And, just to provide balance, evidence that things were changing by mid-45. The APS-7 system of radar led night bombing could achieve precision results on a small scale, with highly trained crews and a specific striped down pathfinder aircraft to lead. Not ready for mass use by this time, but this is a perfect reason to allow 50/per target per turn to hit airfields. [:)]

---

[font="Trebuchet MS"]The B-29's participated in two types of operations that demanded specialized training and tactics. One was a campaign against oil refineries by the 315th Wing, equipped with an improved radar (AN/APQ-7) mounted in stripped-down B-29's. Bombing wholly at night, the wing achieved a remarkable degree of accuracy, destroying or heavily damaging Japan's ten largest petroleum or synthetic oil plants and much of the nation's storage capacity.
[/font]

---

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve
The developers sent over a "so-so" BTO RADAR

OK, when was this (APS-7) in widespread use in PTO? This could be your 'earliest possible date' endpoint.

ETA: Interesting Hyperwar summary too. Can you post it here in case anyone's still following this conversation?

As requested, http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/AAF/V/AAF-V-20.html

---

But then this as well:

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=3250086
[font="Trebuchet MS"]About page 633 In support of ICEBERG.
The raids were designed not only to destroy airfield installations but to keep enemy fighters at home and hence out of the battle for Okinawa. Fighter opposition to the B-29's fluctuated but was generally weak. During the third week in April, after the command had intensified its attacks, the Japanese increased their fighter forces in Kyushu from a combat strength of 75 single-engine and 22 twin-engine planes to an estimated total of 282, including 60 Navy interceptors. Apparently the enemy was funneling fighters through Kyushu to escort kamikazes going down to Okinawa. Later some of the short-range interceptors were sent back to Tokyo and indeed the enemy shifted his dwindling air forces so continuously that mission planning for Kyushu strikes after 30 April was based on a day-by-day estimate of the opposition that might be expected.95 Interceptions varied from none at all on 4 raids to 199 individual attacks on 27 April.

B-29 crewmen reported a total of 1,403 such attacks and claimed 134 enemy planes destroyed and 85 probably destroyed. Antiaircraft was weak except at Kushira and the two Kanoya fields; only one plane was destroyed by flak. In all, 24 B-29's were destroyed and 233 damaged.

This was a light loss ratio; what the B-29's accomplished in return (other than against enemy interceptors) is difficult to evaluate. The B-29's went in at lower levels than in day strikes at heavily defended targets, at altitudes from 10,000 to 18,000 feet, and they frequently laid excellent bomb patterns on the runways, dispersal areas, and installations, But the enemy usually had warning enough to get his planes off the fields, and he was able to repair cratered runways in a matter of hours. After considerable experimentation with fragmentation and GP bombs, the command concentrated on the 500-pound GP, with fuzes varying from instantaneous to delays up to 36 hours, a combination which did hinder repairs. Best results were obtained against storage, maintenance, and repair facilities, but these affected future rather than current air operations. In general, the whole campaign was judged by Twentieth Air Force leaders to have confirmed their opinion that the B-29 was not a tactical bomber. Specifically, it was estimated that between 17 April and 11 May, 95 per cent of the enemy's 1,405 combat sorties were flown on the same day that some of their key bases were being attacked by the Superforts. [/font]

---

As for HRs in general, I don't advocate for using many, but have no problem with those who do. Neither do the devs, apparently:

ORIGINAL: castor troy
[font="Trebuchet MS"]I know Nikademus and Joe Wilkerson for example who have spoken about having house rules on night bombing. I don't have to tell you they didn't say: "night bombing is screwed up and here's the house rule to fix it" ? And still they had a house rule. Both Nik and Joe have been part of the dev team and they are probably not the only ones using a hr. Noone forces you to use a hr nor is there anyone forcing you out of your oppinion of pin point attacks at night but if you just want to go with your above statement, there was more than one dev using a hr, so... [/font]

---

And this:

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

Just my 2c´s:

Night bombings are still a bit overpowered, but it is now highly dependent on the situation.

The most effective positive modifiers for night bombings still are:
- DL of the base under attack
- Weather
- Altitude

I still think the effect of night bombings is a bit too high with maxed out DL, below it is absolutely reasonable for mid-late war.
The problem is, it is much too easy for a player to max out DL. In addition to accuracy, the op loss figures for night attacks are not high enough, more
so for low exp crews.

For this, in our PBEM, we use the following houserules:

*) Night bombings must have squadrons set to 50% rest
*) Night bombings may not be performed below 10000ft
(the baloons mentioned are only effective at or below 6k, and only at bases with a combined port&airfield of at least 6, so their existence is no point against an alt restriction,
as the bands from 7-9k are still overpowering night bombing)

Targets may only be chosen depending on moon:

*) Below 20%: no missions possible
*) From 20-50%: only coastal cities may be attacked (no specified industry)
*) Above 50%: non coastal attacks are possible (no specified industry)
*) Above 70%: everything goes, including specified industry, ports, airfields,...

Up to now we have not identified any issues using these HRs, additional advantage is, it restricts tactical targets to 30% of the month.

My personal wish for the next PBEM would be to additionally flavor those HRs depending on the year.

[mind_messing]

I'm confident mind_messing will find something to support his claims that I'm a lazy player who is behaving unfairly by not offering to remove an HR my opponent has stated he doesn't want removed.

It's your game.

FWIW, not having/changing the HR wouldn't have made one bit of difference to the outcome of the game. This game wasn't or lost during the night phase.

I just want to highlight the unfairness inherent in your HR, and the advantage this has provided you in your air war.

ORIGINAL: obvert

Edit for brevity.

A few points:

1. Those threads are all at least six years old. We've had some progression in understanding how the game works since then. Quite a lot of the game has also changed with it. IIRC one of the official updates tweaked night bombing, but that was before my time so I forget the exact patch.

2. The real-life examples are nice, but let's not get down the road of comparing history to a video game. Sorties in the millions were flown, there will be examples replete on both sides of the argument.

3. To paraphrase another fourmite, AE is asymmetric by design. Any HR's fundamentally impact one side more than another. You really need to accept this before we can have any progression to a more productive discussion, Obvert.

4. Regarding the past forum comments on night bombing, as far as I can see there's only Symon who directly contributed to the thread, and even then there's no indication as to what those HR's are. From reading those threads, I see absolutely nothing about arriving (in an arbitrary manner?) at 50 bombers flying against airbases at night. Symon's comments on the subject are amusing in hindsight.

[Lowpe]

A little off topic:


In this game there has been 10,000 strategic points scored by bombing since DDAy at Sakhalin on June 6th, 1944.

I am not reading the Allied side, but quite frankly I almost never see a strong strategic bombing plan by the Allies. In general, it is the bigger hammer and manpower attacks. That's it.

Given that Obvert has ceded a lot of industry unprotected at night (not using anything but NF squadrons), and it still seems to be in place and working is not the HR fault...That Obvert's NF & F & Engine factories are cranking out planes continuously since Sakhalin has been invaded on June 6th 1944 is not a HR problem.

Night bombing requires patience and persistence and learning. It isn't easy, but it also will devastate Japan. The Allies were in Sakhalin in June of 44 when Night fighters are few and weak. The Allies should have focused everything on winning the Night War and Fighter wars then by targeting factories with hits on all sources of supply generation within range. Not to mention, Allied ships constantly bombarding ports.

This is a scenario 1 game, and the Economy is the greatest weakness of Japan. And yet it seems to me pretty heavily ignored by the Allies till recently.

[Wuffer]

Exactly my thoughts, Lowpe. MM himself confirms that the Allies' struggles are not based on the no-night-attack house rule. Territorial gains alone and neglecting the economy let the Allies face a hydra, for every fighter shot down the Empire will build two even more advantaged new ones... When did your last oil tankers from the DEI arrived, Obvert? *gg*

IMHO some minor additions or regulations are necessary, for example 4Es on low naval attack. Even me was able to sink the KB in a concentrated effort by all available heavies including all Cats in 1942 in my very first match. Forget about precision night strikes in the '40s.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I'm confident mind_messing will find something to support his claims that I'm a lazy player who is behaving unfairly by not offering to remove an HR my opponent has stated he doesn't want removed.

It's your game.

FWIW, not having/changing the HR wouldn't have made one bit of difference to the outcome of the game. This game wasn't or lost during the night phase.

I just want to highlight the unfairness inherent in your HR, and the advantage this has provided you in your air war.

ORIGINAL: obvert

Edit for brevity.

A few points:

1. Those threads are all at least six years old. We've had some progression in understanding how the game works since then. Quite a lot of the game has also changed with it. IIRC one of the official updates tweaked night bombing, but that was before my time so I forget the exact patch.

2. The real-life examples are nice, but let's not get down the road of comparing history to a video game. Sorties in the millions were flown, there will be examples replete on both sides of the argument.

3. To paraphrase another fourmite, AE is asymmetric by design. Any HR's fundamentally impact one side more than another. You really need to accept this before we can have any progression to a more productive discussion, Obvert.

4. Regarding the past forum comments on night bombing, as far as I can see there's only Symon who directly contributed to the thread, and even then there's no indication as to what those HR's are. From reading those threads, I see absolutely nothing about arriving (in an arbitrary manner?) at 50 bombers flying against airbases at night. Symon's comments on the subject are amusing in hindsight.

I've discovered what I need to know.

[uncivil_servant]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

A little off topic:


In this game there has been 10,000 strategic points scored by bombing since DDAy at Sakhalin on June 6th, 1944.

I am not reading the Allied side, but quite frankly I almost never see a strong strategic bombing plan by the Allies. In general, it is the bigger hammer and manpower attacks. That's it.

Given that Obvert has ceded a lot of industry unprotected at night (not using anything but NF squadrons), and it still seems to be in place and working is not the HR fault...That Obvert's NF & F & Engine factories are cranking out planes continuously since Sakhalin has been invaded on June 6th 1944 is not a HR problem.

Night bombing requires patience and persistence and learning. It isn't easy, but it also will devastate Japan. The Allies were in Sakhalin in June of 44 when Night fighters are few and weak. The Allies should have focused everything on winning the Night War and Fighter wars then by targeting factories with hits on all sources of supply generation within range. Not to mention, Allied ships constantly bombarding ports.

This is a scenario 1 game, and the Economy is the greatest weakness of Japan. And yet it seems to me pretty heavily ignored by the Allies till recently.

Maybe you never see a concerted attack on Japan's overall industry as you would encounter greater losses than the 8th AF encountered. The 8th had to cease and desist for losses. Commit suicide of your air force for a few points of industrial destruction that can be repaired instantly (albeit it with a supply cost)

Risk > Reward.

"The Allies should have focused everything on winning the Night War and Fighter wars then by targeting factories with hits on all sources of supply generation within range."

How when you have to send a squadron here then a squadron there and divide your focus. Very hard to "focus" when you have to divide your squadrons into different targets. Tokyo was night bombed by close to 300 hundred bombers.

Further, how do you "focus" when you cannot bomb from mainland bases but small bases that can easily get bombarded and you lose your precious bombers.

I just do not follow how one can achieve what you said. I agree with the necessity of what you said, but I see zero opportunity to meet that goal.