I've around 40k of supplies unloaded or soon to be unloaded at Rangoon with Mandalay very slowly drawing them up the rail line. With Betties based at Bangkok it will soon become quite dangerous for my ships around Rangoon.
You can live without Darwin, maybe not so without China. This is by far the more strategic location at this time of the war. Get as much supply here as you possibly can, and take some losses if you have to to do it. Keep in mind that this is why the AVG was formed. Use it here as long as possible and push those supplies into China. A mere 40k is just that, its not even an appetizer. You need to get 100's of k in there, if possible.
BTW, all that supply doesn't mean that China now becomes an offensive juggernaut overnight. Its merely there to help sustain her through the long dark hours ahead. Stay on the defensive for the most part. IOW only take shots that are clear and useful victories. Those should be very limited.
Don't neglect Ledo. Build that base and start your transport runs ASAP. No transport planes, no problem, use bombers. They probably won't be doing much that's useful at this stage anyway.
Essentially, all of the supply that arrives at Capetown for the next 6 months or so is designated to go to Oz.
IMHO, big mistake. China. What do others say?
It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume
In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche
[:@]Site booted me before I could get in my last response. I'll try and recreate.
I do plan to hit Mike in an isolated place, somewhere in the Pacific far away from the Darwin theater. The Aleutians would be perfect for this. I'd love to draw the KB back and forth across the Pacific multiple times to burn fuel.
First, you are aware that this op was never a feint as is believed. It was planned at least to some degree even before Midway as part of the defense zone around the HI.
Second, the fuel usage for the KB while being a draw is hardly worth the squeeze.
Thirdly, IMHO this is one area where the game fails miserably. To conduct large scale extended ops from this region is just not that doable. Even today it would be a challenge. That being said the game being a game its not that bad of a choice as opposed to trying to code in restrictions more than may have already been done (winter effects). Otherwise what player would even bother with the place. So I need to commit limited assets to a region that is a 'backwater'. Oh, well.
Now reading Mike's last AAR, its obvious he has a 'soft spot' for the Aleutians that may be a bit over the top. OTOH a heavy response from him could now open a new 'front' that poses no real benefit to you. You're both operating with the same hand tied behind your backs. In the early game do you really need another region to worry about? IMO, build and defend Dutch Harbor and the nearby airbase heavily and let him spend time and resources for an area that's devoid of any real means.
Again I reiterate that the 'historical' approach is the correct one. You by your greater means, that are growing every day, have every advantage here, while he has none. Now, that doesn't mean that the axis of approach may not change in the future. From the Solomons/NG and the Marshall's/Gilbert's ops could be switch with relative ease to a thrust out of Darwin. Especially when you've gradually constructed and reinforced the approaches while your other 'hand' was keeping him focused elsewhere. Heck by this point (say early '43) you could keep the pressure on the 'historical' path as well.
Just more food for thought, I hope.[:D]
It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume
In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche
Still no turn from Mike, but I exchanged emails with him and he's well, just very busy at the moment. No worries from my end as it's now cycling weather and my Carolina Hurricanes are in the thick of the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time in 10 years. [8D]
Well, my Carolina Hurricanes' playoff run ended in the Eastern Conference Finals. It was a great season with most all expectations exceeded. They are a very young team and have good potential for the next several years.
Oh, I got a turn back from Mike, too. [:D]
I've only run the replay but hope to get back to work on the turn tonight. A couple of highlights from the turn:
My Brit/Aussie/Indian troops in Johore Bahru hitting the armor units that had pursued into the hex last turn and forcing them to retreat. No other Jap troops had yet advanced into the hex so the 1st Tank Rgt and the 5th Recon Rgt get to hang out in Mersing for another day. What looks like a full Japanese division did advance into the hex after that attack, so I had a bit of luck on my side. It was also just barely a 2:1 attack to force the tanks to retreat. This will likely be my last offensive action on the Malaya Peninsula for several years, but every little setback I can hand to Mike is worth it. I'll order all my troops to fall back to Singapore since the presence of the Jap division is already cutting off the flow of any more resources into Singers.
I did manage to pick off 4 or 5 more transports at Mersing with my stringbags and a couple of Dutch subs. I also deposited a few mines there from the Dutch O19 and it seems Mike found one of them with the CA Takao. [8D] She showed up on the sunk ships list, but I'll be surprised if that lasts. She's out of the fight for a month or two at the least.
Two deliberate attacks at Hong Kong reduced the forts to 0. I suspect it will fall tomorrow.
At Pearl, BB West Virginia gave up the ghost and slipped beneath the surface of the harbor, as expected. In hindsight, I really should have scuttled her last turn. [8|]
The turn went back to Mike yesterday evening after a long process of re-familiarization. We are both hoping to get into a regular routine for a while as it always makes each turn quicker to manage when you still remember what you were trying to do last turn.
Other than my brief summary of the last turn above, there is only one thing (lesson learned) that I figured out since that post. My air HQ's mostly had 40 torpedoes added to their stocks. I mistakenly thought that they would maintain that level if supply was available at the base. Nope. [:D] To do that, you have to display the HQ's TOE and then edit the target number of fish there. Last turn, I had a number of Beasts and Swordfish attack with bombs while others did use torps. It turns out that the HQ had run out of torps in their stocks. Oh well, you can be sure I spent a bit of time to make the changes in the TOE of a few key Air HQ's.
I started the harbormaster job at San Fran of creating 2 ship TF's to load the first wave of LCU's to ship out. It's time consuming to load each LCU individually on 2 ship TF's but it ensures none are loaded onto only one ship as can happen when simply creating a large enough TF to load everyone and then loading multiple LCU's at once. They will merge into 1 or 2 large TF's after loading, depending on the direction they are heading.
I also spent some time with my designated training air groups. Some of them have recovered their fatigue and morale to the point where I am ready to get them flying so I filled them out with rookie pilots.
I still have the major housekeeping task of going through all the Russian bases to turn on fort and AF expansion. I think I can also selectively turn on replacements for LCU's while the Soviets are still not activated. Getting this started now will pay off big several years from now, but there is not an urgent rush to get it done. My goal is to get everything on this future front set the best I can by Jan 1, 1942.
The turn went back to Mike yesterday evening after a long process of re-familiarization. We are both hoping to get into a regular routine for a while as it always makes each turn quicker to manage when you still remember what you were trying to do last turn.
Other than my brief summary of the last turn above, there is only one thing (lesson learned) that I figured out since that post. My air HQ's mostly had 40 torpedoes added to their stocks. I mistakenly thought that they would maintain that level if supply was available at the base. Nope. [:D] To do that, you have to display the HQ's TOE and then edit the target number of fish there. Last turn, I had a number of Beasts and Swordfish attack with bombs while others did use torps. It turns out that the HQ had run out of torps in their stocks. Oh well, you can be sure I spent a bit of time to make the changes in the TOE of a few key Air HQ's.
I started the harbormaster job at San Fran of creating 2 ship TF's to load the first wave of LCU's to ship out. It's time consuming to load each LCU individually on 2 ship TF's but it ensures none are loaded onto only one ship as can happen when simply creating a large enough TF to load everyone and then loading multiple LCU's at once. They will merge into 1 or 2 large TF's after loading, depending on the direction they are heading.
I also spent some time with my designated training air groups. Some of them have recovered their fatigue and morale to the point where I am ready to get them flying so I filled them out with rookie pilots.
I still have the major housekeeping task of going through all the Russian bases to turn on fort and AF expansion. I think I can also selectively turn on replacements for LCU's while the Soviets are still not activated. Getting this started now will pay off big several years from now, but there is not an urgent rush to get it done. My goal is to get everything on this future front set the best I can by Jan 1, 1942.
I intended to get the turn summary of the 16-17th turn written up this evening after sending the turn back to Mike, but I had the next turn waiting for me when I got home from work so it's a 2 for 1. [:)]
Philippines
I've managed to retreat to Manila to make my stand in pretty good order. Mostly because I've never tried it before, I chose the urban hex over Bataan. A couple of late arriving ART units have appeared at Bataan, but everyone else is at the party in the city. The forts are up to 3 and I have 1677 AV sitting behind them but that number is deceptive as much of that consists of poor exp and combat value troops. I have lots of engineers there but they are only just keeping ahead of the daily bombing damage. Because of the severe losses over the first two days of the war, my fighter strength here is almost gone and I can only offer token resistance in the air. I have just over 50k supplies here. Unless Mike brings 4 or 5 divisions and a bunch of combat engineers to the party, I may be able to hold out until the supply runs out. If I get to the point where I can't make any progress toward building forts because of damage repairs, I'll turn off the fort building to save a little supply that way. I wish I could burn the 100k of fuel sitting here but Mike will probably take possession of most of that soon.
Malaya
So I had my fun over the 14-15th turn at Johore Bahru, punching his overextended armor in the nose and retreating them to Mersing. Mike was able to pour a bunch of ground forces into the hex while I was trying to run for the fortress of Singapore. He deliberate attacked on the 16th but only got a 1-2 result. On the 18th he attacked again and managed to get a 2-1 result. He had added another 3 regiments to the 3 already there, along with lots of combat engineers and a bunch of artillery. One more day and the bulk of my guys would have reached safety. Instead it was a slaughter. 8 units retreated to Singapore and 3 were destroyed, including the entire recombined 11th Indian Div. The butcher's bill:
Allied ground losses:
11477 casualties reported
Squads: 297 destroyed, 19 disabled
Non Combat: 718 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 87 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 130 (122 destroyed, 8 disabled)
Vehicles lost 106 (106 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 8
Units destroyed 3
So, Singapore is now in a similar situation to Manila. Lvl 3 forts that are building a bit faster here due to a few less planes bombing so far and a few more engineer vehicles, 50k supply and about 21k resources. That should produce another 1500 – 2000 supply before the industry grinds to a halt. I only have 577 AV here, but they are generally better quality than at Manila. My fighter strength is down to 11 Buffaloes but only 5 of them are ready. I have around 30 bombers here along with a dozen remaining torpedo bombers. They have all done some nice damage to transports over these first two weeks of the war. I expect I will get no more than 2 or 4 more days of effective use out of them before remnants are evacuated.
Hawaii
My constant badgering of the 20 or so Japanese subs trying to blockade Pearl Harbor has finally started to pay off. The sunk ships list shows a second IJN sub sunk in this region and third total. Between all the aircraft flying ASW and all the ships on ASW I've likely managed to damage a couple more subs. Honestly, I think the biggest factor is many of Mike's subs running low on torps after constantly shooting at my DD's. He did sadly hit DD Reid with one on the 19th and she immediately went under. The end result is I'm seeing many of the subs move off to the West and several others at least pulled back a hex or two away from Pearl to decrease the effectiveness of my air groups. I should be able to get escorted shipping in and out now without too much worry.
China
Hong Kong still holds out. At any time the next attack could be the last here, but it's still be a week longer than I usually see.
Burma
No sign yet of any Jap ground forces approaching, but he did air drop onto Port Blair and take it last turn. Intel shows the 33rd Division and another Rgt on ships and heading for Bangkok, so I'm moving a few of the Dutch and Brit subs to try to pick some of them off.
I noticed something interesting about the supply levels in China. They are generally increasing by 2-4k/turn. 1K of that is via the Burma Road and the rest generated via local industry. Last turn the supply total in China jumped by 11k and it appears to have come from the supply I dumped into Rangoon. About 2k is being pulled into Mandalay each 2 day turn and 800 into Lashio, both limited by their daily supply cap. But I think the rest moved much farther into China, past Lashio. I guess it's only a 1 time/week draw, but it's way more movement than I expected. I thought I'd have to manually "walk" the supply into China one base at a time. So, I'm going to risk running another supply convoy into Rangoon from Colombo. So far Mike has not bothered any of my shipping near Rangoon with Betties from Bangkok, but that could change at any minute. I have 2 squadrons of fighters to fly CAP at Rangoon as needed. 50K of supply will load up and depart Colombo next turn and I have around 80k more loading at Aden and Abadan bound for Colombo.
DEI
I've had my fun with Force Z here. I've spotted 2 different TF's approaching the area with BB's. I don't want a fair fight or anything close to it, so my surface combatants are splitting up and heading out. PoW and Repulse, along with 6 Brit DD's are rearmed at Soerabaja and will head to Colombo. PoW will get her 19 system damage and her busted up 20mm AA gun repaired there. The Yanks and Dutch, led by Houston and Boise, are heading to Perth where they can sortie to North Oz or the IO as needed, or fairly quickly move to the Coral Sea. All the rest of the Allied shipping has skedaddled out of the region. I will probably send some smaller AK's to try to grab a little more fuel out of Java, but I'm not risking anything more valuable as Mike shows signs of moving into the area in force. He is moving a bit more cautiously after losing his CA let SC TF a few days ago.
Can't tell whether you still hold Clark Field or how much enemy airpower has already been relocated to Luzon airfields. Nonetheless ..... [:)]
At this stage of the war it is not feasible to deny the enemy that Manila fuel stockpile. There are however a couple of things you can try to reduce the quantum which is captured.
1. Enemy air blockade will probably not be watertight for a couple of more weeks. Depends a lot on what your opponent does with Clark. Most Japanese players rely on the mini KB to set up the early air blockade in the south, with primary focus on catching fleeing Allied ships trying to escape from Manila to Darwin/Java. By the third week the mini KB has usually retired to replenish sorties and to move on to support new amphibious operations. This gives you a 2 week window of opportunity to run single ship blockade runners shipping supply into Manila. Run them at flank speed (choose only merchantmen that actually cover more ground at flank than at cruise) deliberately to maximise fuel consumption, refuel at Manila and pick up a fuel cargo, then send them out at flank. Make Manila the home port and the supply can come from Tarakan and Balikpapan. With luck you might be able to sneek in some 5-10k of supply and reduce the fuel stockpile by 5-6k.
2. Do the same thing with all your fleet USN subs. They will be able to continue the operation until Manila falls. They won't be able to carry fuel out as cargo but continuous running at flank with refuelling only at Manila will draw down the fuel. They could carry out support troops to reduce the food consumption in Manila. Depending on how many you allocate this exercise might get 500-700 supply per week into Manila and perhaps consume 5k fuel per week.
Alfred
Japanese air forces in the PI are focused on bombing Manila and Bataan right now. I did lose Clark last turn, so more enemy aircraft could be operating in the area soon, depending on Mike's timetable. I would sure consider running some supply in and fuel out with single ship AK TF's and risk his attacking them from the air, but he has kept a very effective net of surface ships around the PI. He did the most effective job of catching the "scattering horde" leaving Manila that I've ever seen. Those ships are still in place, especially to the South between Manila and the DEI or Oz. I don't know if any AK supply efforts would make it.
I have considered using my fleet subs to bring in a bit of supply. I know all of them together can slip in a small but not insignificant amount. Most of my fleet boats are on patrol to the north of Luzon and have had some real success. I've probably had 8 or 10 Mk 14 fish actually explode into enemy ships over the first two weeks. I think it's a combination of the large number of subs I have there and a large number of enemy convoys that have passed through the area so far, as there have been plenty that didn't explode as well. I think I want to keep them on station a while longer even though I expect their effectiveness to decrease soon do to losing my Naval Search coverage of that area. I've had to pull my PBY's out to safer bases. As long as I'm not losing subs to enemy attacks I'd rather have those fleet boats attacking in deep water hexes. Even if most of the torps don't explode, the boats are slowly gaining experience so they will be even more effective when the defective torps are corrected.
Maybe I'm being too cautious, but I feel given the disposition of Mike's forces, the gain from a couple thousand extra supply at Manila and reducing the fuel captured there a bit isn't worth losing more ships over or taking the subs off patrol. Perhaps if I had planned a resupply attempt from the start of the war....
About 2k is being pulled into Mandalay each 2 day turn and 800 into Lashio, both limited by their daily supply cap.
Not 100% sure here, but isn't that 'daily supply' cap in Burma only in effect during the monsoon? That would be mid-May through mid-Oct or Nov. Again not sure of the end date.
Maybe others may chime in on this one.
It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume
In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche
I always thought 2-day turns to be nerve wracking, this is not changing my mind[:D]. In the same
vein as Alfred's comments, are you bringing in supply to Singers? Where is the Big E and Lex?
About 2k is being pulled into Mandalay each 2 day turn and 800 into Lashio, both limited by their daily supply cap.
Not 100% sure here, but isn't that 'daily supply' cap in Burma only in effect during the monsoon? That would be mid-May through mid-Oct or Nov. Again not sure of the end date.
Maybe others may chime in on this one.
Sorry I don't have any documentation with me to verify this, but I can tell you Mandalay and Lashio have drawn almost exactly what the current base supply cap is for several turns now. My evidence in game is that they are in effect year round.
I always thought 2-day turns to be nerve wracking, this is not changing my mind[:D]. In the same
vein as Alfred's comments, are you bringing in supply to Singers? Where is the Big E and Lex?
I don't know about nerve wracking, but all orders are issued with a small to medium size dose of caution. [:D] I like it.
The situation at Singapore is the same as Manila. The area is flooded with enemy surface combat ships and my subs here have been very effective attacking Japanese shipping. I'd rather sink a single cargo ship this early in the war than hold onto Singapore for an additional day.
Lex, Enterprise, and which ever CV arrives 3rd (Sara or Yorktown) are all at Pearl Harbor. Their air groups have assisted in the massive ASW efforts there. One will escort the first, smaller convoy of US troops to the South Pacific in about a week and the other two will escort the much larger troop/supply/fuel convoy that is still loading at SF in about 2-3 weeks.
The last sighting of the KB was 3-4 days ago when they pounded Wake Island before it's capture.
In emails Mike has expressed several times that I've been very irritating in this game. He fully expected me to pull a Brave Sir Robin defense and literally just run away with everything as fast as I can. Some of my spoiling attacks on land that cause delays, a few successful air attacks on his shipping, and the ambush of his SC TF by Force Z have really surprised him. I know he is operating and approaching his next steps with more caution, which means I've accomplished my first early goal of slowing him down. [8D]
In emails Mike has expressed several times that I've been very irritating in this game. He fully expected me to pull a Brave Sir Robin defense and literally just run away with everything as fast as I can. Some of my spoiling attacks on land that cause delays, a few successful air attacks on his shipping, and the ambush of his SC TF by Force Z have really surprised him. I know he is operating and approaching his next steps with more caution, which means I've accomplished my first early goal of slowing him down. [8D]
And now you can switch to the Brave Sir Robin strategy and really confound Mike. [:D]
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In emails Mike has expressed several times that I've been very irritating in this game. He fully expected me to pull a Brave Sir Robin defense and literally just run away with everything as fast as I can. Some of my spoiling attacks on land that cause delays, a few successful air attacks on his shipping, and the ambush of his SC TF by Force Z have really surprised him. I know he is operating and approaching his next steps with more caution, which means I've accomplished my first early goal of slowing him down. [8D]
And now you can switch to the Brave Sir Robin strategy and really confound Mike. [:D]
In essence, that's what I'm doing and what my plan was all along. I'm mostly salvaging anything I can from the doomed places and looking for good opportunities to counter punch. I got a few punches in, and Mike has so far as well. I see my chances to surprise him again in the SRA diminishing as he brings in CV cover and heavy BB presence to discourage me from getting frisky. I'm not trying to pull off a "Fortress Palembang" or "Fortress Java" but I'm also not gonna just let him roll into town in Strat mode and not even have to pause to attack and capture a base. [;)] What I hope I've managed is to get him to wait just a little bit longer for more protection at each phase of his timetable.
