Notes from a Small Island

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Bif1961

Tokyo was the 3rd city targted for an A-Bomb, fortunately the Emperor threw in the towel.

It is my understanding Kokura was next on the list of unbombed targets that could be evaluated for damage.

[Bearcat2]

Truman approved 4 targets in July 1945. These were, in order of priority, Hiroshima, Kokura, Niigata, and Nagasaki.

DECLASSIFIED
E.O. 11652, Secs 3(E) and 5(D) or (E)
NND 730039
By ERC NARS, Date 6-4-74

25 July 1945

TO: General Carl Spaatz
Commanding General
United States Army Strategic Air Forces

1. The 509 Composite Group, 20th Air Force will deliver its first special bomb as soon as weather will permit visual bombing after about 3 August 1945 on one of the targets: Hiroshima, Kokura, Niigata and Nagasaki. To carry military and civilian scientific personnel from the War Department to observe and record the effects of the explosion of the bomb, additional aircraft will accompany the airplane carrying the bomb. The observing planes will stay several miles distant from the point of impact of the bomb.

2. Additional bombs will be delivered on the above targets as soon as made ready by the project staff. Further instructions will be issued concerning targets other than those listed above.

3. Discussion of any and all information concerning the use of the weapon against Japan is reserved to the Secretary of War and the President of the United States. No communiques on the subject or releases of information will be issued by Commanders in the field without specific prior authority. Any news stories will be sent to the War Department for specific clearance.

4. The foregoing directive is issued to you by direction and with the approval of the Secretary of War and of the Chief of Staff, USA. It is desired that you personally deliver one copy of this directive to General MacArthur and one copy to Admiral Nimitz for their information.

(Sgd) THOS. T. HANDY

THOS. T. HANDY
General, G.S.C.
Acting Chief of Staff

[Canoerebel]

Continuing on my previous line of thought. This is my first game to reach August 1945. Previously, over the years and through many games, I'd only thought about the a-bomb sporadically, briefly, and without any real depth to the thinking. But it did occur to me that I might just refrain from making use of it if, and this was a big if, doing so actually meant something meaningful. As I approached August '45 in this game, I gave it a bit more thought and came to the conclusion that there was no merit in the idea. This is a game played for fun built around the context of the real war. The real war included a-bombs, and to the extent making use of them gives us reason to understand that war better, and to appreciate what happened and why, all the better.

[Canoerebel]

8/13/45

Tokyo: The a-bomb mission didn't fly, although the forecast for both airfield and target was "partly cloudy." Tomorrow "light cloud" over Tokyo but "heavy thunderstorms" over Shikuka. So the B-29s will move forward to Toyohara, which is also "light cloud." I think the second mission will be over Yokohama, which has the Shinden factory and some kind of turbo-jet factory.

Death Star & The Herd: Steaming east in good order, tomorrow the armada will pass between Formosa and China. Many of the trailing TFs are close, relying on enemy reticence (fear of LRCAP) and friendly LRCAP for protection.

KB: KB is moving east, over near the Moluccas/Celebes. The Allies have decent patrol coverage from the NW (Legaspi), E (Satawal Island) and S (various bases in the DEI), so the enemy carriers will find it hard to evade detection. Erik won't like "monitoring," and I think he'll take that into consideration as he moves his carriers, possibly to the Marshalls or maybe to the Home Islands. If they head to either, that may open a window for the Allies to move on Timor or Java or, if necessary, to move further west to lend a hand with Singapore.

[mind_messing]

Russia: For the most part, Erik has been laying low in Russia, knowing that it take time for the Russians to advance far enough to threaten important territory. Now the Russians are nearing those points in several locations, and I'm beginning to see movement dots, aircraft concentrations, etc. Erik will strike soon. When the Russians take a decent airfield in the "heart of things," they'll "cede it" to the Western Allies (paying the PP to swap HQ assignments) so that Western fighters and bombers can lend a hand. I think all of this is par for the course when Russia activates, but having Sikhalin (and Wakkanai) is a help.

I think you're being far too passive with your big Soviet units. They're big and resilient, and almost all of them have embedded AA.

The big tank units have a battery of 85mm guns, and the infantry units have 37mm AA guns. This means that any IJ bombing effort is going to be kept at 8k ft or above, and even then the formidable 85mm AA guns will take a heavy toll for any damage caused.

[Canoerebel]

You can't think that yet.

The Russian units have advanced as far as they can as fast as they can. They've done well. Now they're getting close to the desired position, which I think will allow them to synergize with the Western Allies, who will be landing in the northern Yellow Sea in about nine or ten days.

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
... Western Allies, who will be landing in the northern Yellow Sea in about nine or ten days.

[X(]
[X(]

Evidently, "interesting" times are coming. We're all anxious to see the results.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You can't think that yet.

The Russian units have advanced as far as they can as fast as they can. They've done well. Now they're getting close to the desired position, which I think will allow them to synergize with the Western Allies, who will be landing in the northern Yellow Sea in about nine or ten days.

To synergize with the Allies is nice, but the Russians can and absolutely should book it for the big VP bases and damn the torpedoes. You don't even need to wait for the dedicated AA units - the organic AA to Russian units is more than enough to keep them safe.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You can't think that yet.

The Russian units have advanced as far as they can as fast as they can. They've done well. Now they're getting close to the desired position, which I think will allow them to synergize with the Western Allies, who will be landing in the northern Yellow Sea in about nine or ten days.

To synergize with the Allies is nice, but the Russians can and absolutely should book it for the big VP bases and damn the torpedoes. You don't even need to wait for the dedicated AA units - the organic AA to Russian units is more than enough to keep them safe.

They may well be "booking it" but there is a great deal of distance to cover before they can be in place... patience, Grasshopper!

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, and Base Points is about the fourth priority right now. Points are important, but they'll simply fall into place naturally as the Allies pursue higher priorities. Which include: isolating and then moving into Korea to take airfields; isolating (if practicable) and destroying enemy armies; and avoiding clever traps in which Erik might destroy Allied armies, thus measurably increasing the denominator.

As the Western Allies come north, and as the Russians move south, the high value bases (and there really aren't very many) will fall in due course. Strat bombing and destroying enemy ground, air and naval units (if possible) should provide a significant majority of the points going forward. The main bases for points will be Singapore (in line to fall), Shanghai (relatively low on the priority list until further developments) and Chungking.

[HansBolter]

See my post titled "Should I, or shouldn't I?" in the main forum for the possibilities of using American shipping to transport Russian LCUs.

In my game Russia has cleared the Korean peninsula by December 1st and has two armies sitting in Fusan ready to be sea lifted to Honshu.

[Canoerebel]

Oh, I've been following it, Hans.

Western Allied troops are mainly prepping for various Home Island targets already. The Russians are mostly prepped for Harbin, Changchun, Rashin, and Peiping. As those bases fall, the Russians may prep for the Home Islands (or possibly they'll take responsibility for Chungking.

I think there's a chance that the Allies can prevail before year's end. The carving up of the Empire is going more quickly than expected and I think this will continue to accelerate. The key is whether the Allied air forces can efficiently pursue strategic bombing. Of that, I'm not sure yet.

Erik is toying around with ideas to. I'm pretty sure he's taking careful looks at the Allied forces in northern Indochina and the Russian forces around Vladivostock. He's also reconning the big Russian river and it's inland port, but I think that's for decoy purposes.

[HansBolter]

That inland port, Komsomolsk, has been used heavily by me. With your control of Sakhalin, you should have good access to using it as well. That is the port I used to ship massive amounts of supply into Russia as I found it lagging terribly.

I am also using Komsomolsk to ship the 15th Army to Sakhalin. Being connected to the rail net allowed me to swiftly redeploy the 15th Army there after it completed its inland tasks.

[Canoerebel]

Regular supply runs are in place from the Kuriles and the Aluetians to Komsomolsk. That's also the receiving base for several Russian divisions and other units moving from Sikhalin Island to the mainland.

This is mostly guesswork at the moment, and therefore subject to change (and radical change), but I don't think it will be necessary for the Allies to invade the Home Islands to win the game. There are probably enough in the DEI, China, and Korea, for enemy ships, and via Strat Bombing. So I'll be concentrating on those things. If I begin to detect trends or issues, I'll adjust accordingly.

[Canoerebel]

8/14/45

Tokyo: The a-bomb mission flew today. The bomb dropped. The combat report doesn't list any damage. I feel sure that's just a reporting oddity and that damage was done. I'll know more when I can review the turn file, but Erik sent the wrong files. I'll update when he sends the right ones.

[Capt. Harlock]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

8/14/45

Tokyo: The a-bomb mission flew today. The bomb dropped. The combat report doesn't list any damage. I feel sure that's just a reporting oddity and that damage was done.

Maybe Erik's been researching force fields?

[tarkalak]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

8/14/45

Tokyo: The a-bomb mission flew today. The bomb dropped. The combat report doesn't list any damage. I feel sure that's just a reporting oddity and that damage was done.

Maybe Erik's been researching force fields?

May be it was a dud?
Did virtual version of Oppenheimer spent some spare change billions on booze and hookers?
Inquiring minds must know!

[HansBolter]

I also had dismal results with my A-Bomb mission.

After complaining about it here I was informed as to how nerfed the A-Bomb truly is in the game.

Its a waste of time to use.

There shouldn't be any penalties for use beyond 2.

According to other experienced players it was explained to me that the A-Bomb doesn't automatically destroiy anything and is just a a normal bomb that does anywhere for 0-32k damage.

You got the 0 result. I got a 1.5k damage result.

In both cases it wasn't worth the effort!!!!

Did I mention that the obviously Japanese side loving developers decided to nerf the a-Bomb?

I can accept all of the a-historical beefing up of the Japanese side to make it a viable side to play in a game, but nerfing the a-bomb was a step too far in that direction.

That's why I'm conquering Honshu.

And making a dud count as one of your two allowed drops before incurring penalties is rubbing salt in the wound.

Rant compeleted:

Look the target over to see if any actual damage was done. If you had not previously damaged the target all new damage will be due to the a-bomb. That's how I was able to assess that mine did a paltry 1.5k damage to various targets within the city.

[Bif1961]

In the Spaatz Papers at the Library of Congress manuscript section, there is much radio traffic generated on Tinian in the second week of August. The U.S. Army Strategic Air Forces wanted the third bomb to be dropped on Tokyo as a wakeup call for the Japanese government, which was stalling on agreeing to the United Nations surrender terms. (That this could have been seriously proposed is an indication of how woefully uninformed USASTAF was about the destructive power of the weapons it had delivered to the Empire.) Back came a message, presumably from Hap Arnold, saying that the decision had already been made that the target would be Sapporo in the northern island of Hokkaido.

Chuck Hansen's great book U.S. Nuclear Weapons: The Secret History doesn't explicitly go into this question, but it does note that at the end of 1945 the U.S. owned a total of two atomic bombs, both Fat Man plutonium bombs. (This design became the standard U.S. nuclear weapon until into the 1950s.)

In Downfall: The End of the Imperial Japanese Empire, Richard Frank says it was General Marshall and General Grove who delayed the transport of the third bomb, sufficient that it couldn't have been deployed until August 21 or thereabouts.

In an August 2002 interview with Studs Terkel published in the British Guardian newspaper, Paul Tibbetts recalled something similar: "Unknown to anybody else--I knew it, but nobody else knew--there was a third one. See, the first bomb went off and they didn't hear anything out of the Japanese for two or three days. The second bomb was dropped and again they were silent for another couple of days. Then I got a phone call from General Curtis LeMay. He said, 'You got another one of those damn things?' I said, 'Yessir.' He said, 'Where is it?' I said, 'Over in Utah.' He said, 'Get it out here. You and your crew are going to fly it.' I said, 'Yessir.' I sent word back and the crew loaded it on an airplane and we headed back to bring it right on out to Trinian and when they got it to California debarkation point, the war was over."

[Canoerebel]

8/15/45

Tokyo A-Bomb: The a-bomb mission was successful. In terms of the kinds of industry targets and the level of destruction, Erik won't even notice. The only material effect is to points - the strike grossed the Allies almost 4,000 points, which is 5% of the total needed to achieve victory.