Banzais Don't Make Victories - Anachro (A) vs John 3rd (J) BTS 5.7

[Canoerebel]

I don't think John came up with the notion that your play has been influenced by AAR input, in general, and my comments, in particular; somebody gave him that notion; and "...who runs his own show..." is a shot at you, either conscious or subconscious.

From my perspective, you've welcomed input, weighed it for what it's worth, took under advisement that which you found helpful and discarded anything that wasn't, and then formed your plans. You're calling the shots, in other words.

[HansBolter]

Not even so much as a nod for my spot on interpretation of John's intentions in the last post on the prior page. [:(]

John's proclivities are well documented.

Agree completely that this is the time to hunker down and let him bleed himself.

[Anachro]

@Hans My email to John didn't discuss anyone in this thread, but it must be him guessing from who he sees posting here on the main page. It's yet to be determined if John actually plans a counterlanding at Colombo. His email makes it seem like he will be doing something this next turn: either there or focused on Trivandrum.

@CR I didn't take it as a swipe at me; and if it was, it's a poor one as any commander worth his salt will have a number of advisors to talk and argue with and this is well-documented throughout history, even with great commanders. There's a reason the flag room on a carrier was separate from the captain's command room; it made it easier to argue and discuss situations with subordinates. This usually leads to better outcomes; a commander can be "their own man" for better or worse.

For now, I am restacking fighters at Trivandrum. With all his surface ships, John might try to push his way in to bombard the airfield, but I hope my ships can do a decent job protecting. Moreover, I have 100 DBs escorted by 110 fighters waiting at Tanjore to hit anything that comes nearby or is straggling from a surface fight. One I have replenished my slower BBs, I will move to Colombo with many of them and hunker down. Subs are moving and more are coming to the theater...operations elsewhere will begin as soon as assets are in place to conduct them.

[GetAssista]

John seems too much invested into this backwater piece of real estate named Ceylon. It is time for you to prep for Hokkaido [:D]

[Anachro]

April 15th, 1943

I think John was expecting more fireworks (his email in sending the turn states he would very much be interested in doing another for whatever plan he has), but, again, I will sit and think upon it and gather advice from here. Not much happens this turn, but John moves his KB and various surface forces back south a bit as a large number of transports, maybe even an LSD, and escorts are at Koggala. I think this is to cover those transports while also providing heavy ASW duty (John's bombers are causing damage to my subs). Meanwhile, the Japanese division northeast of Colombo moves into Colombo proper.

Again, this could be an evacuation, but what I think will happen, now, is that John will attempt a counter-landing at Colombo and the most strong piece of evidence for this is the division now sitting in Colombo. It makes no sense for it to move there otherwise. Perhaps John is hoping to landing in the night and following day while trying to entice me to a shock of deliberate attack of his unit. No doubt, this will coincide with bombings and bombardments. KB2 will provide cover to a certain extent, but will also want to devote bombers and some fighters to escort/strike duty.



Some points:

1. I have two BBs and various CAs/CLs/DDs at Trivandrum that can attempt a disruption of any landing at Colombo, perhaps doing a flank speed maneuver.
2. I have a large number of DBs/TBs and escort fighters within the 6 hex range of Colombo to strike at any landings.
3. My other BBs are on their way to Bombay for ammunition replenishment and will be available to provide additional support later on if the investment of Colombo is long.
4. John will inevitably have to retire for fuel or ammo and I can quickly reinforce and resupply Colombo.

What would you do?

Elsewhere, and this might be why John sounds a little annoyed in his email, I strike at a corner of the world that hasn't seen much action of focus lately. I hit a supply convoy at Port Moresby. Perhaps this will hurt John's focus a little bit or draw some attention.

[Canoerebel]

John will not land directly at Colombo, unless you cede complete control to him there. With the invasion bonus expired and Colombo well-protected, there's zero chance. He'd simply land reinforcements at one of the other bases and march across.

[Canoerebel]

I'm missing something, but that's inevitable for readers of AARs. You have access to 100% of the available info while I'm a casual reader who might have 5%. So if what I'm saying doesn't make sense based upon everything that you know....ignore it.

But here it is: From the screenshot above, I don't see any Allied TFs at Colombo. My understanding is that you have a much stronger army there than he does. I am assuming the airfield is pretty large - level 6 or bigger. And that you have at least some aviation support. Supply is decent but not overwhelming. Under those circumstances, I'd have my fleet at Colombo under massive CAP.

[Canoerebel]

John moved that division to Colombo to recon by bombardment in all likelihood. If he is coming, he wants to know what you have before he lands reinforcements to move on the base.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John will not land directly at Colombo, unless you cede complete control to him there. With the invasion bonus expired and Colombo well-protected, there's zero chance. He'd simply land reinforcements at one of the other bases and march across.

Makes no sense for him to load his troops on ships unless he is either evacuating or invading.

Transporting to another port to unload and march makes no sense because the march route from Trincomalee is shorter than the march route from any other port (Koggala) due to the presence of a primary road between Trincom and Colombo and a secondary road between Koggala and Colombo.

The three hexes between Trincom and Colombo can be traversed faster than the two hexes between Koggala and Colombo, especially if you add in packing time to get in and out of strategic mode.

Unless the entire move was maskarovka, faking an invasion and unloading at Koggala. Can't see the use in this given the time delay it creates. Only other factor I can think of in favor of a move like this is that starting out across country from Colombo would have been an obvious flag of his intentions that perhaps he did not want to raise. Then again, starting out across country from Koggala raises the same flag and takes longer.

[Canoerebel]

Hans, I'm not certain what point you're making (due to my inability to read English, not your ability to write it). Where is he loading troops? I agree he'd more likely land at Trincomalee than Colombo, but that was the point I was making.

[HansBolter]

Based on the picture on the prior page with what is either a Transport or Amphibious TF at Trincom and the guess that he might be evacuating, I offered the alternative interpretation that it might be an Amphib TF rather than a Transport TF with an intended purpose of counter-invading Colombo rather than executing an evacuation.


If his intent is to hit Colombo, I was pointing out that loading troops on transports to ship them to Koggala, with an intent to then march them to Colombo, would be much slower than simply marching them from Trincom, and thus doesn't make sense.

Trincom is where he picked the troops up, at least presumably. We have no evidence yet the presumed Transport/Amphib TF actually picked up anything.

[Canoerebel]

Can anyone imagine John unloading a post-bonus army at a defended Colombo with no prep? Surely Anachro would've received all kinds of prepping info for months.

If John does this it could only be because somebody was telling him that we were predicting there's no way he'd do it (not revealing info from this AAR but commenting about the comments here). He might do it just to prove people were wrong, but surely that's not what's going on here.

[paullus99]

I, for one, wouldn't put anything past John if it involves him thinking he can destroy allied units (or just kill things).

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Can anyone imagine John unloading a post-bonus army at a defended Colombo with no prep? Surely Anachro would've received all kinds of prepping info for months.

If John does this it could only be because somebody was telling him that we were predicting there's no way he'd do it (not revealing info from this AAR but commenting about the comments here). He might do it just to prove people were wrong, but surely that's not what's going on here.

Anachro has only held Colombo for a little less than a month so there would definitely not be any sigint showing months of prep.

Not sure what date he retook it, but scrolling back through the pages reveals a post dated 3/14 with Colombo in Japanese hands and an outline of the planned invasion force.

As a reaction to an invasion, do I think John would try to counter invade? Absolutely. He can't know the Allies have 1200 AV there, although the first bombardment with the division that road marched there will reveal that.

Perhaps once he sees how stoutly it is defended he will alter his plans, but I still see all of this as setting up a 'potential' invasion while using the road marched division to determine if it is viable.

[Anachro]

Well, for the next turn....we will try something different. All available surface craft move to Colombo backed by heavy CAP. Meanwhile, in a few days time my other BBs will be back re-armed at Trivandrum. I look at it this way, even if John isn't looking to counterland at Colombo, his carrier bombers are clearly set to a nav strike range less than the distance to Trivandrum. They might run into a CAP trap at Colombo. Moreover, he saw my damaged ships in port there last turn: he might try a port strike with his heavy bombers on a place I so far have shown little inclination at all to put CAP at. The question is how much to stack the Colombo airfield with, cognizant of the danger from a bombardment during the night.

[HansBolter]

How are they moving to Colombo?

With Colombo as a destination, or with Colombo as a destination and a 1 hex patrol pattern target?

Giving your combat TFs patrol orders increases their chances of reacting to enemy TFs and getting interceptions.

Just sitting in a port with no patrol orders means no reactions, just potential encounters with TFs entering the hex.

And how on earth do you have planes stationed at Japanese bases? There are green airbase icons indicating the presence of American, or possibly Australian planes at both Jaffna and ther unnamed inland base.

Is this a quirk of your non-standard map?

I've noticed that the game engine has a difficult time with displaying the correct color of some of these icons. I laid American mines on the Pacific coast of Honshu and the game engine displayed them as Russian mines.

[Anachro]

Colombo set as port and destination, no reaction. Absolute, direct. I'm not sure I want them to react and potentially move in a direction they makes them subject to murderous bombing.

EDIT

Those show Japanese planes at those bases. Jaffna and Dambulla have 50 fighters each. Allied airfields would be beige in color. Also, notice the Japanese forces moving west at Dambulla.

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, since combat ships are essential to protecting Colombo against enemy bombardment TFs this next turn, I'd have done what you did (move to Colombo as home port, direct/absolute). Then, if there aren't fireworks next turn, you'll have options to play with patrol/react settings.

P.S. If John's army had been prepped for Colombo while John held the base, Anachro would've gotten SigInt info immediately after he took it. I have that happen all the time - take a base from the Japanese and then get SigInt ever afterward that the units once there are "prepping" for it.

[Canoerebel]

If Colombo's port is large enough to replenish some/all of your capital ships, all the more reason to make a stand there. John will be burning candles at both ends - fighting against a dug in enemy and using his units that have to retire to replenish.

[jwolf]

As Hans mentioned, the green airfield icons at Japanese bases Jaffna and the one in the center (Dambulla?) look very strange. The one at Port Moresby looks the same, so evidently that is how the Japanese airfields are shown in this mod. Really weird for those of us who are used to the standard colors.

On topic, I just can't believe John would try to bring in unprepped or poorly prepped troops to Colombo when he can easily land at Trincomalee and just march across the island. Ceylon isn't all that large, and the roads are mostly very good.