Teun557 (Axis) vs Seminole (Soviet) - Bitter End

[Seminole]

Turn 11

Overall strategic picture at the beginning of turn 11.



The grind by AGN continues, but the pace of advance has slowed.
A good opportunity for counterattack presents itself in clear terrain and Tolbukhin seizes it.



Once again the front line is shortened and stiffened. Hope rises that we can keep the Germans from Leningrad before the rains come.



The Finns take another crack the Janisjarvii Line, but the Soviets hold.



At the land bridge the Russians continue their counterattacks to try and protect Smolensk.



With 2nd Panzer Group establishing firm bridgeheads over the Dnepr the Western and Bryansk pull back to the next river line.
Farther south in the Donbass the weather precludes another attempt to open the pocket, so STAVKA orders a pull back to screen the rivers.

Overall strategic picture at the end of the week:

[MattFL]

ORIGINAL: Seminole


Once again the front line is shortened and stiffened. Hope rises that we can keep the Germans from Leningrad before the rains come.

I must be missing something because it appears to me that the GHC should be able to smash this line with ease given the combat power he has massed their and the low CV of the Russian defense. I can't see the GHC stacks, but look at all the MOT and panzers, seems they can go along the coast and down the middle through the 2=9 with ease.

Am I missing something?

[vilcum]

I must be missing something because it appears to me that the GHC should be able to smash this line with ease given the combat power he has massed their and the low CV of the Russian defense. I can't see the GHC stacks, but look at all the MOT and panzers, seems they can go along the coast and down the middle through the 2=9 with ease.

Am I missing something?

Personally I agree with you specially on the coast road... attacking and occuping the 3=7 hex should make a later attack to the 4=23 a rout... managing retreats in the attacks to 1=1 cav and inf , panzers can penetrate really deep on that axis

[Seminole]

The terrain isn’t as conducive to mechanized forces, and insufficiently supported assaults have resulted in holds. The depth of the line has thus far prevented the panzers from breaking into the open and gaining operational freedom.
When he has made narrow front salients the Russians have tried to bring heavy attacks to force them back.
The panzer concentrations have also provided STAVKA with the confidence to leave other areas of the line without defense in depth.
So far the panzers have largely concentrated in the forests and rivers of the north, and assaulting the Kiev area. I’m more afraid of their motors than their cannons, so this has been a welcome development.

[MattFL]

Personally I agree with you specially on the coast road... attacking and occuping the 3=7 hex should make a later attack to the 4=23 a rout... managing retreats in the attacks to 1=1 cav and inf , panzers can penetrate really deep on that axis

Exactly, attack the 3=7 stack, the push up another unit to hasty attack the 1=1 weak units, then you can attack the =23 stack and heard it SE to that village I think which totally uncovers the coast. Once the =23 is out of the way, infantry can move up and hasty the other 1=1's out of the way. Germans should be able to get troops all the way to Lenningrad. Or could go another way and heard everything up against the coast.

I can't see the Russian Fort Levels, but given the low CV and big stacks i'd have to think they're pretty much non-existent. And without the Forts, the Germans should be able to tear this front apart with that type of combat power. I know if this was my turn as Germans i'd be licking my chops. [:)]

[MattFL]

ORIGINAL: Seminole

The terrain isn’t as conducive to mechanized forces, and insufficiently supported assaults have resulted in holds. The depth of the line has thus far prevented the panzers from breaking into the open and gaining operational freedom.
When he has made narrow front salients the Russians have tried to bring heavy attacks to force them back.
The panzer concentrations have also provided STAVKA with the confidence to leave other areas of the line without defense in depth.
So far the panzers have largely concentrated in the forests and rivers of the north, and assaulting the Kiev area. I’m more afraid of their motors than their cannons, so this has been a welcome development.

Well, if I were you I'd be nervous in the extreme and dread opening up my next turn. As you are posting this in hindsight, I'm sure nothing too bad happened. In fairness, we don't know all that there is to know about the GHC situation and we know far too much about the Russian deployment. Can't change that, the screenie shows what it shows. But given what we do know about CV, number of units, and deployment, he should be able to walk right through that with relative ease. I'll be very curious to see the next turn and see what he ended up doing. But I would LOVE to play this next GHC turn as it would be a fun one and I think you'd be screwed. [:)]

[Seminole]

I would LOVE to play this next GHC turn as it would be a fun one and I think you'd be screwed.

“In Soviet Union Red army screws YOU!”
[8D]

[Seminole]

Turn 12

Forgot to grab screenies for strategic picture at the start of the turn.

Here's what the Leningrad Front looked like at the open of the turn.



A single counterattack is launched, and successfully pushes back the Germans and their allies.



Units are rotated to keep the freshest divisions on the front line.



Largely quiet in the center as the Germans move up to the new front line. Gomel is preemptively evacuated to avoid units being captured.

In the south the defenders of Nikolaev manage to hold, but Odessa's defenders are forced to flee.



Several units have been captured recently, but overall we've avoided disastrous pockets since the opening week.



Losses to date:



OoB:



Overall strategic picture at the end of the week.

[MattFL]

Wow, it's just a shocking lack of progress. Of course, now that you show the Forts, it's a bit different as if he retreated the 1=1's back on the level 4 forts, that makes it more difficult. But GHC should have done far better than this for sure...

[TheLysander]

Its quite clear that the players are mismatched in terms of skill and experience. The game will most likely not be enjoyable for either side unless drastic changes take place in the next couple of turns.

[Dinglir]

Well, here are a few observations on my part:

1) Instead of building fortified Zones on the Finnish front, simply place some bad units here and set them to 20% MaxToE. This will save you a few AP for use elsewhere.

2) Build forts on the north side of the Neva River in order to get the fortification level here to three before the Germans reach the south side of the river. I also like to build forts in shlisselburg and similar places in order to slow the German advance.

3) Is there a point to having a unit embarked on a transport in Leningrad? Has it been evacuated and left without points to disembark, or are you planning on an amphibious operation?

4) The German attacks could be much better organised. First of all, when battling your way to Leningrad, assign Pioneers to the combat units and also make sure to put in some good leadership and super heavy artillery when attacking fortifications. Also, I have noticed the Germans setting their Panzers up in swamp, even if there is no reason to do so.

5) Do not necessaily leave Rifle Divisions behind to get encircled in cities. It will cost you 10.000 Ivans, often for no gain whatsoever, as they will crumble long before the German rail lines reach the city.

6) Evacuating city AA will only cost one MP once the Germans are sufficiently close to the city it is in. This will give you a lot fo "free" AA units you can then assign to your combat armies.

7) I personally find that using the Rumanians to hammer away en masse on the Odessa fortifications is a complete waste of men and material. Simply encircle the city and leave it alone until such time that a German Corps with sappers and Super Heavy Artillery can lead the attack.

On the strategic side of it, it seems obvious to me that the Axis player is not yet familiar with how to play the Axis. With four turns to mud, there is absolutely no threat to either Leningrad, Moscow, Kharkov or Stalino. This should mean you are in for a game that will not really challenge you that much, as the situation is so much in favor of the Soviets.

[Seminole]

ORIGINAL: Dinglir
Well, here are a few observations on my part:

1) Instead of building fortified Zones on the Finnish front, simply place some bad units here and set them to 20% MaxToE. This will save you a few AP for use elsewhere.

Hadn't done this because I usually feel desperate for movable units on the map so I can try to speed bump and harass the Germans, so I kind of like to 'set it and forget it' with the FZs north of Leningrad.
I like to defend the Janisjarvii Line in most cases because if the Axis decide to beat heads with you it's usually a good way to farm wins for Guards units.

2) Build forts on the north side of the Neva River in order to get the fortification level here to three before the Germans reach the south side of the river. I also like to build forts in shlisselburg and similar places in order to slow the German advance.

I do likewise. I also like to FZ ports that I can hold long enough to get high fort levels too.

3) Is there a point to having a unit embarked on a transport in Leningrad? Has it been evacuated and left without points to disembark, or are you planning on an amphibious operation?

I forgot to explain this. Check back on turn 4. I had retreated a brigade on the island to force the Germans to clear it since there is a port on the island to provide supply. I also put defenders in Tallinn to force him to commit infantry to seize the city. The rifle divisions survived the first infantry assaults on turn 5. I then tried to withdraw them by sea to the islands to the south east on turn 6. The plan was to rest them and when the Germans pushed onto the island (as they finally did after breaking down a division so they had sufficient MP to cross the waterway) they would move to the northern island. From there they could swoop south and cut off the single German division that was pushing the brigade toward the port.
But the rifle divisions were annihilated by air power on the trip because 4th Panzer Army was taking the Baltic route, and was supported by well by the Luftwaffe. The port supply completely refilled the TOE, but it didn't seem right so I evacuated them. The ship you see if when I pulled the final brigade to do digging by Leningrad.

4) The German attacks could be much better organised. First of all, when battling your way to Leningrad, assign Pioneers to the combat units and also make sure to put in some good leadership and super heavy artillery when attacking fortifications. Also, I have noticed the Germans setting their Panzers up in swamp, even if there is no reason to do so.

Teun557 is free to comment in the thread, but I think he's still on the learning curve for maximizing his assaults. I would say I think the mech forces have been used to much as a hammer instead of an exploitation force. They are powerful, and can take a hex, but they're scarier when they run through a breakthrough and turn flanks, and corral the low morale Soviets that can't easily push through enemy territory.
To the degree the Axis player makes his strategic focus evident and doesn't leave himself operational flexibility the Soviet can concentrate defenses.
I think my cutting off of units multiple times have put a degree of caution into Panzer operations as well.

5) Do not necessaily leave Rifle Divisions behind to get encircled in cities. It will cost you 10.000 Ivans, often for no gain whatsoever, as they will crumble long before the German rail lines reach the city.

I usually don't, except in cases I think they can tie up enemy units to some advantage for me.

6) Evacuating city AA will only cost one MP once the Germans are sufficiently close to the city it is in. This will give you a lot fo "free" AA units you can then assign to your combat armies.

This is something I could do a better job of, but I tend to get caught up trying to organize and re-organize my armies. I need to spend more, earlier on sub units as it is.

7) I personally find that using the Rumanians to hammer away en masse on the Odessa fortifications is a complete waste of men and material. Simply encircle the city and leave it alone until such time that a German Corps with sappers and Super Heavy Artillery can lead the attack.

But from the Soviet perspective requiring a heavy Axis concentration is the entire goal.

On the strategic side of it, it seems obvious to me that the Axis player is not yet familiar with how to play the Axis. With four turns to mud, there is absolutely no threat to either Leningrad, Moscow, Kharkov or Stalino. This should mean you are in for a game that will not really challenge you that much, as the situation is so much in favor of the Soviets.

With the general idea of the winter line in place at this point, STAVKA is definitely forming plans for the blizzard offensive. But before we get to that there is one more surprise.

[Seminole]

Turn 13

My notes from turn 11-13 were missing for some reason, but from the map it's easy to infer not a lot happening as the Germans appear to be trying to rest a bit for one last lunge before the rains.

Overall strategic picture at beginning of the turn:



After our decision to withdraw from Gomel the week prior the Axis did attempt to create a broad crossing on either side of the city. Only in the north did they succeed in establishing a perimeter. The armored component was strong enough we could not eject them.
South of the city they forced a withdrawl from the river, but they lacked the time and inertia to establish a bridgehead on the evacuated positions. The Red Army closed back up to the river and established some secondary lines to try and capture any spearheads that broke through.



Farther south in the Donbass we punish some Rumanian mountain brigades, and with Nikolaev enveloped pull back south of the Dnepr to finally finish the line from the Baltic to the Black Sea.



Until the rains we expect the Germans to continue pushing to isolate Leningrad. Concern is developing at STAVKA that the Gomel axis of advance could potentially link up with the panzers establishing bridgeheads west of Dnepropetrovsk. Planning begins for how rapidly and at what point we would try to evacuate the Kiev salient before inviting disaster.

Overall strategic picture at the end of the turn:

[MattFL]

I agree with the comment that the Axis player is using his pz and mot too much as a primary attack option and not enough for what it's meant for, exploitation. He's trying to force major river crossings with his armor rather than just driving through the land bridge and maneuvering you off the river lines. This is about as bad of a 1941 as there can be for the Germans. The only thing that would make it worse I think is if you had another 400-500k men in your OOB. Cleary there's been quite a bit of fighting as I don't think you've suffered any major encirclements.

If this game is on full blizzard it's going to be really painful for the GHC.

Also, agree with most of Dinglr's observations except for the Fort Line in the north. Far better to spend the 10 or however many admin points using forts on 20% TOE and having the same number of units available for fighting. Which brings me to something I just noticed in this game....how are the Finns being held in the North?! Goodness...

[Seminole]

Turn 14

Overall strategic picture at the start of the turn:



I don't know what German level bomber production looks like, but I'm hoping these will be unsustainable losses.



Finns have been hammering on the Janisjarvii Line. They're again rebuffed, but they've succeeded in piercing the Soviets prepared defenses.



AGN continues to grind toward Leningrad. Focusing on the Baltic coast. No opportunities to counter attack or shorten the line. Just need to shuffle reinforcements and try to refit units as best as possible. Will start bringing all fit tank brigades up here to sit in reserve status and build out forts.
Mech formations in AGN:
60th Mot Div
3rd Mot Div
8th Pzr Div
6th Pzr Div
12th Pzr Div
Totenkopf SS Mot Div
19th Pzr Div
7th Pzr Div
1st Pzr Div
18th Mot Div
14th Mot Div
20th Pzr Div
20th Mot Div
36th Mot Div



Scattered German attacks along the line south to Smolensk. The Panzer Lehr brigade is placed along the front line and the Soviets pounce with several rifle divisions. Outnumbered 5-1 the Germans dish out 6-1 losses and withdraw from the field.



AGC increases bridgehead over the Dnepr around Gomel.
Mech formations in AGC:
4th Pzr Div
1st Cav Div
18th Pzr Div
17th Pzr Div
29th Mot Div
3rd Pzr Div



As AGS shifted mechanized forces toward Dnepropetrovsk STAVKA has sent fresh units to the Dnepr river line, while rotating out the most experienced units that had been manning these defenses since the opening weeks to extend the line south and also build a second line behind the bridgehead at Gomel.
Several tank brigades are railed from their reserve positions up to be northern diggers so we can create a thicker net for any AGN narrow thrusts.
AGS is across the Dnepr west of Dnepropetrovsk. General Zakharkin commands two rifle divisions that had fallen back upon a division of Cossacks that STAVKA had placed in reserve. This impromptu corps valiantly resists several attacks from multiple directions to prevent the Germans from closing the ring on a mini pocket on the northern bank of the Dnepr.



STAVKA orders defenses to close the distance and hug the southern Dnepr bridgeheads and harass their supply lines. Secondary lines are established between the bridgehead and Kharkov to try and web any mechanized penetrations.

Overall strategic picture at the end of the turn:



Destroyed units include the garrison of Nikolaev.



OoB:

[MattFL]

Real quick comment on air losses - he can sustain those loss levels pretty easily. In my current game at the same time Germans have lost 2195 Planes and Soviets lost 14388. So German losses are about 2.5 times higher in our game and soviet losses about double your game. But we have had a hot and heavy air war going the entire game. In your game, Germans have 3154 Planes while in mine, Germans have just over 2000 and Soviets right around 5000. Basically, in your game the air losses have been light for both sides and he can sustain those levels pretty easily. I'm a pretty big proponent of the Russians really taking the air war to the Germans despite what appear to be absolutely crippling losses in the process. Fact is the Russians can produce a lot more and can sustain the losses, the Germans really can't.

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: Seminole
I don't know what German level bomber production looks like, but I'm hoping these will be unsustainable losses.

Also you are hitting the wrong part of the German air force - they make about 50 level bomber a turn, and are not used for about half the year.

To hurt the Germans you do need to hit their choke point - single engine fighters. Stukas are also valuable. Level bombers and recon are (almost) freebies for the Germans.

[Seminole]

The air war is my biggest deficiency in this game. I definitely feel comfortable with the model in WitW.

I generally just try to keep numbers where I feel is most important.
The second or third week we recall the squadrons to National Reserve so we can redploy with a preferred balance across the front.
In the rain I recall them again, swap out for the latest frames to get the pre-war junk off the airfields, and then swap any bomber trained FB squadrons to IL-2.

I upped my intercept doctrine numbers, but I don't really know how this plays out. I put a lot of squadrons in Leningrad and Northwest Front to try and catch his attempts to bomb the port that will eventually be the lifeline.
That's why I had the interest in LB replacement levels. Wasn't sure how long and hard he could press the issue, but figured it was to my advantage to push him.

I haven't done much at all in the way of attacks with the Red Air Force. Have turned ground support on. I'll probably be more aggressive with it in '42.

[Telemecus]

Ah I see what you mean. In that case the number of Level Bombers you are actually destroying is not that important - because the Germans will not run out of them. But the impact you will have on the level bomber airgroups morale and experience could be considerable. Also you will disrupt or slow the damage the bombers do on the port. If Osinovets is still a level four port, then it needs to be above 75% damage to stop supply. You repair 3% a turn. Subtract 3% from the damage the bombers are making each turn and multiply by the number of turns until Lake Ladoga ices over and you will see if you have anything to worry about it.

ORIGINAL: Seminole
I upped my intercept doctrine numbers

Counterintuitively when you increase intercept numbers you will get fewer interceptions - although there will be more Soviet fighters in each of them. If you are unhappy with the number of interceptions you are getting then you should lower the number, if you are happy but want to do more damage on each one then increase it.

[Seminole]

Turn 15

Air Losses.
Clearly I haven't tested the Luftwaffe so far, but the rate recently seemed better for me.