Axis defence-only strategy

[Michael T]

The AAR was there a ways back. It was called 'Razing the Reich'.

It was an infamous clash between Pelton and I. He tried his Left Hook around the south of Leningrad through the Valdai. It failed. His whole 1941 strategy was based on the success of that operation. I think I was the first to foil it. He then ran back to Poland in the fall/winter of 1941. I pursued and he turned turtle in 1942. I attacked in 1942 to simply bleed him dry. I lost many troops but he lost many as well. I began 1943 with a monsterous Red Army, with many Guard INF Corp. Slowly crushing him and pushing him back. A mysterious bug then stopped the game. He later admitted defeat and resigned as it was obviously going to be a Red Army victory. The bug that ruined the game was also later found.

Anyway the AAR was ok IMO and I spent a long time doing it. So I am not pleased it has been deleted. I doubt I will bother with anymore AAR's after that. What a waste of time.

As I said above, different rules back then but still would have been an interesting discussion point for this thread.

[Telemecus]

+1

I think I remember skimming through Razing the Reich a long time ago. It is a real shame that has gone. I can understand why so many War in the East AARs are now appearing in other forums outside of Matrix.

I saw a similar thing last year where a very large number of people who had done absolutely nothing wrong were told everything they had written in AARs would be wiped. Even if what is held in these forums is up to a private company to decide on, you still assume some responsibility from the individual entrusted to undertake that policy. Whatever the rules and laws there is common decency for the people who have spent so much time doing something to help others with the game. That should not be thrown away because of one individuals caprice or because of someone else's actions.

I guess we can only take the conclusion that this strategy probably would not work even if we cannot see it in an AAR.

[Michael T]

Yes, and if some posts in the AAR were deemed to be non PC, by todays standards, surely give the OP the option to delete the offensive content so the AAR can remain. To just delete it without notice is very heavy handed. I note there are also some great old threads that have been deleted as well.

[xhoel]

Ouch that is really messed up. I would lose my shit if my AAR was just deleted without giving me any noticed.

[MattFL]

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

Public continuation of a discord discussion regarding a very defensive Axis strategy. All invited to add their thoughts!

The points below are more of a thought experiment, I have no definite opinion if it will be successful, but I tend to think the Soviets will eventually get the upper hand.

So here is the recipe for a defence only Axis strategy.
Play an opening optimised for unit morale gain. Continue the summer 1941 with a morale farming approach by favouring frontal assaults and installing high morale leaders quickly. If possible, destroy Soviet airborne formations to deny later guards conversions. Take care not to gift any victories to the Soviets.
During mud and snow 1941, retreat west of the line of the hardcoded blizzard effects. The idea is not justto reduce losses from blizzard fighting, but to avoid the blizzard effects completely.
After the Blizzard compare the comparative strength of the forces. If the force ratio allows the push to a more forward defensive line (especially the Dvina-Dnepr line), go for it. Otherwise simply fortify and leave the initiative to the Soviet player.
The Finns will be set up such that they surrender without giving many wins to the Soviets, e.g. by disbanding the units.

The frontline to defend is approximately 65-80 hexagons for a line located somewhere between the Dvina-Dnepr rivers and Axis-USSR border. At-start number of German divisions is approximately 150, and reinforcements considerably outnumber withdrawals/disbands considerably. With reinforcements triple-stacking along the short line almost everywhere should be possible, with low-quality units and Axis maintaining fallback fortifications.
Having avoided the blizzard, the Axis should have almost 100% TOE in most categories and retain their high morale units in all categories.
Here is a map showing possible defence lines by date.



If we assume 80mrl for the average infantry division and 100% TOE, it has around 11CV.
If we assume 90mrl for the average motorised infantry division and slightly below 100% TOE, it has around 11CV.
If we assume 90mrl for the average Panzer division and somewhat below 100% TOE, it has around 20CV.

To account for damage, fatigue and no triple stacking for a few hexagons, we assume 10CV per unit while calculating with triple stacking everywhere.
30 offensive CV in lvl 3 forts result in 120 defensive CV, 90 if in lvl 2 forts before any bonus due to terrain.
Lvl 2 forts in swamps for example will give defensive CV, lvl 2 in clear terrain behind a minor river 180 CV etc.


That is not easy to crack for the Soviets. A 60mrl 60 exp 1944 Soviet rifle corps has around 15 CV, the number of Guards rifle corps will be very limited and almost no unit will be above the NM. Triple stacked and attacking from two hexagons, the offensive CV brought to battle are 90CV, barely matching the defensive CV of a clear lvl 2 hexagon, and 2:1 odds are needed to force a retreat. And that is for 1944, 1942-1943 morale/exp values and hence CV are considerably lower. If it is possible to build a massive wall of steel, absolute Soviet numbers do not matter much, because the CV can’t be concentrated sufficiently for a breakthrough.

So what can the Soviet player do? As he has abundant numbers of dead and living (soon to be dead) material, whittling down the Axis forces by hundreds of failed frontal attacks is a possibility. The problem is that the frontline is comparably short and well fortified, so making the weight matter is difficult. It is less of a problem in the summer, but during mud, snow and blizzard, rotating units for multiple waves of attacks becomes a problem, even more given the recent introduction of a +1 cost for each successive attack on a hexagon.
Furthermore, the Soviets can accept a huge number of RNG fails, while each bad roll resulting in a Soviet break-in will be a major problem for the Axis player, even with multiple echelons of fortifications.

Overall, I think a well-constructed Axis line taking advantage of Eastern Europe mountains or the Dnepr-Dvina river can very well hold out CV-wise, if it is possible to attrit the Axis forces sufficiently has to be tested, but I think so. It might be possible to sit out the summers behind rivers, but the winters will be difficult.

Interesting. 50k foot view - incredibly boring game, massive soviet victory. Seems to me that the overwhelming majority of casualties in the game, particularly for the Germans, are taken during the logistics phase. I'm not sure the engine is designed to handle this type of strategy as the German army would still be pretty small and the Soviet Army would be massive and incredibly close to it's objective.

[Seminole]

Seems to me that the overwhelming majority of casualties in the game, particularly for the Germans, are taken during the logistics phase.

Turn 25, beginning of the turn:



Turn 25 after conducting almost 40 attacks, over 90% of them successful:

[Michael T]

FWIW Razing the Reich is back. Also the issue that ended that game prematurely has been fixed.

[Michael T]

I recall that it made a very boring 1942. So much so I simply refused to ever entertain playing against such a strategy ever again. So I only henceforth played with Sudden Death victory conditions. Which makes the ploy game ending in late 1941.

[EwaldvonKleist]

Link to Razing the Reich: tm.asp?m=3162325

[timmyab]

The early turtle strategy was doomed to failure back in those days. With current game balance I think it would be a much better prospect. unfortunately (or fortunately) I don't think you can prevent the Soviet player from producing between three and five guards corps from converted para brigades and as soon as these start getting wins the Soviet guards corps numbers will snowball.
The key might be holding the Dvina-Dneiper line through the winter of 42-43 with minimum Soviet wins. If succesful then hold through the Summer of 43 followed by a Winter 43-44 retreat to the Summer 44 line which would be prepared to in depth fort 3.

I'd love to see it played out. My bet would be that the Axis could hold into 45 if they can prevent the Soviet wins snowballing.

[EwaldvonKleist]

Pelton executed the strategy wrong in his game vs mt. He did not run out of the blizzard zone. Not that it would have made a difference about the final outcome I think

[timmyab]

I'm not sure I would run out of the blizzard zone completely either. Regaining the Dvina-Dneiper line in Summer 42 could be difficult North of the Pripet marshes and would give opportunities for the Soviet player to get wins through counterattack.

Turtling behind the blizzard line from December 41 onwards could also be a tough nut to crack. I can't see the Soviet player getting many wins before late 43. Of course he would be that much closer to Berlin though.