Coordinated Strike vs. Trickle Effect

[HansBolter]

Here is an example of how the trickle effect can often result in greater damage than a coordinated strike. I am closing the cordon around Tokyo and decided on January 10th, 1946 to drop the hammer down on this target.

It was the first day in many without severe storms and the B29s got through and hit the target in a big way. As you can see the missions that trickled in after the first coordinated strike did way more total damage than the coordinated strike.

Its also important to note that each subsequent hit led to a steady increase in fire damage. Its also important to note that in spite of how impressive the fire damage appears the resulting damage to infrastructure was not that impressive. Prior to this mission I had only struck Tokyo once strategically with the A-Bomb that was a resounding dud.

Screen shot shows aftermath the next day. Combat report excerpts show mission results. I did not copy the many 3 plane trickle missions that got no hits. Just successful missions are included.

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
D4Y2-S Judy x 5
J1N1-Sa Irving x 4

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 106
B-29B Superfort x 11

Japanese aircraft losses
D4Y2-S Judy: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 15 damaged
B-29B Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 36
Fires 10788

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Japanese aircraft
D4Y2-S Judy x 1
J1N1-S Irving x 1
J1N1-Sa Irving x 4

Allied aircraft
B-29B Superfort x 9

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-29B Superfort: 6 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 9720

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 4

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 4
B-29B Superfort x 20

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-29B Superfort: 3 damaged

Manpower hits 51
Fires 23976

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 79 NM, estimated altitude 26,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 3

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 5

No Japanese losses

No Allied losses

Manpower hits 1
Fires 26100

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 2

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 11

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 5
Fires 25920

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 37 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 2

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Japanese aircraft losses
J1N1-Sa Irving: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 30375

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 28 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 26568

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 26 NM, estimated altitude 24,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 26892

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 29 NM, estimated altitude 24,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29B Superfort x 6

Allied aircraft losses
B-29B Superfort: 3 damaged

Manpower hits 3
Fires 27864

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 17 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 3 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 28188

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 10 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 4

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 28512

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 27 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 3 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 28836

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 43 NM, estimated altitude 24,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 29160

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 29 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 29484

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 32 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 29808

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 13 NM, estimated altitude 25,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 30132

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 46 NM, estimated altitude 25,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29B Superfort x 4

Allied aircraft losses
B-29B Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 30456

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 47 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 3
Fires 31428

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 14 NM, estimated altitude 24,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak

Manpower hits 1
Fires 31752

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 10 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 32076

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 41 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 2

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 32400

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 22 NM, estimated altitude 25,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 32724

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 39 NM, estimated altitude 24,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 33048

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 27 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 33372

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 41 NM, estimated altitude 25,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 33696

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 48 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 34020

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 24 NM, estimated altitude 24,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 2

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 2
Fires 34668

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 39 NM, estimated altitude 25,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 3
Fires 35640

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 48 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 35964

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 44 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 36288

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 45 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 36612

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 11 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 2
Fires 37260

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 15 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 5

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 37584

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 22 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 3 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 37908

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 21 NM, estimated altitude 25,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 7

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 2
Fires 38556

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 23 NM, estimated altitude 24,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29B Superfort x 8

Allied aircraft losses
B-29B Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 10
Fires 41472

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 13 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29B Superfort x 4

Allied aircraft losses
B-29B Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 11
Fires 44712

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 44 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 6

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 3
Fires 45684

[RangerJoe]

Why bomb so high up? Wouldn't a lower level do more damage?

I remember reading about a bomber that dropped on Tokyo at 2,000 feet. When all of the bombs went off, it went up to over 7,000 feet with a strong smell of burnt meat inside the plane.

[Moltrey]

I like your research here HB, good stuff!

RJ:

I highly recommend you rent or buy the documentary "The Fog of War" starring Robert McNamara. It basically covers his life serving the country and his hindsight thoughts on it. A controversial figure to be sure, but the whole segment on WW2 is really interesting and there is a part where McNamara talks about the "Tokyo fire bombing" as he puts it. Pretty visceral and rather upsetting in certain ways. You'll understand once you have watched it. It is one of my favorite thought-provoking documentaries to recommend to others.

[RangerJoe]

RJ:

I highly recommend you rent or buy the documentary "The Fog of War" starring Robert McNamara. It basically covers his life serving the country and his hindsight thoughts on it. A controversial figure to be sure, but the whole segment on WW2 is really interesting and there is a part where McNamara talks about the "Tokyo fire bombing" as he puts it. Pretty visceral and rather upsetting in certain ways. You'll understand once you have watched it. It is one of my favorite thought-provoking documentaries to recommend to others.

I have seen pictures of it. I also read where a Japanese woman/teenager burned a kimono because of evil spirits. It happened in the 1800s and I think that over 80,000 people died. I also know that the Japanese were never invited to Oahu on 7 December 1941, they misused the Bushido code, the rape of Nanking among other atrocities in China, and 27% of Allied prisoners captured by Japan died. I have no problem with the firebombing of Japan during the war nor the dropping of the atomic bombs.